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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #4,781
  • Jan 28, 2010 9:55am Jan 28, 2010 9:55am
Quoting eyevoltage
This time it's a 15m chart that delivers the goods. A nice shooting star candle formed just before the NY open on the confluence of the 13ema and the xx50 psych-line. I was in just under the low of the SS candle and then kept a careful eye on things as I was aware of the News at 13:30. A lovely trade that took me to just below the Main Pivot line where I jumped ship. I think that's me for the day!
Funny, that's the chart I have in front of me on my PC, EV!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,782
  • Jan 28, 2010 9:56am Jan 28, 2010 9:56am
Quoting eyevoltage
This time it's a 15m chart that delivers the goods. A nice shooting star candle formed just before the NY open on the confluence of the 13ema and the xx50 psych-line. I was in just under the low of the SS candle and then kept a careful eye on things as I was aware of the News at 13:30. A lovely trade that took me to just below the Main Pivot line where I jumped ship. I think that's me for the day!
Do you use an indi to mark LON and NY Opens? If so, could you possibly post it here, please? MANY THANKS, EV!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,783
  • Jan 28, 2010 11:17am Jan 28, 2010 11:17am
It's an indicator I only got just recently, mate. It shows the opens for Sydney, Tokyo, London and New York.
Comes in handy as a visual reminder etc.
Cheers.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Market_Open_Lines.mq4   3 KB | 560 downloads
  • #4,784
  • Jan 28, 2010 11:30am Jan 28, 2010 11:30am
Quoting eyevoltage
It's an indicator I only got just recently, mate. It shows the opens for Sydney, Tokyo, London and New York.
Comes in handy as a visual reminder etc.
Cheers.
Thanks a bunch, EV, greatly appreciated!!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,785
  • Edited 10:52am Feb 2, 2010 8:12am | Edited 10:52am
EV, I bet you would have taken this one too

Or maybe you did...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ_M5.png Size: 40 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,786
  • Feb 2, 2010 9:20am Feb 2, 2010 9:20am
Quoting Forex007
EV, I bet you would have taken this one too

Or maybe you did...
No, I didn't, mate......nice trade, though....well done!
Looking at it, I probably would have exited earlier than you at around the RR3 line on your chart, due to the rather lengthy consolidation.

Don't stop now, mate! Let's have more!!
  • #4,787
  • Feb 2, 2010 10:55am Feb 2, 2010 10:55am
Quoting eyevoltage
No, I didn't, mate......nice trade, though....well done!
Looking at it, I probably would have exited earlier than you at around the RR3 line on your chart, due to the rather lengthy consolidation.

Don't stop now, mate! Let's have more!!
By the time price reached that consolidation areas, my SL was "in the money" so I didn't worry (much) about it being hit. H1 indicated there was more potential in that trade (I wanted to have it run till 125.80 - which it did hit soon), but then I changed my mind for several reasons.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,788
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:01am Feb 2, 2010 11:01am
Quoting eyevoltage
Don't stop now, mate! Let's have more!!
For a change, the one that didn't work out:

Lower high formed, on xx50, when price retraced upwards first (forming Bullish Englufing - is that correct, EV?), then price went down again to form Bearish Engulfing. I like such "railroad tracks" (they are M10 virtual/synthetic pinbar).

I entered on the bar marked with a vertical line, and got stopped out shortly afterwards (by 2 pips). Price then reversed and hit my RR2 target (at prior Lows).

That's how it happens too...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_M5.png Size: 28 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,789
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:00pm Feb 2, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting Forex007
For a change, the one that didn't work out:

Lower high formed, on xx50, when price retraced upwards first (forming Bullish Englufing - is that correct, EV?), then price went down again to form Bearish Engulfing. I like such "railroad tracks" (they are M10 virtual/synthetic pinbar).

I entered on the bar marked with a vertical line, and got stopped out shortly afterwards (by 2 pips). Price then reversed and hit my RR2 target (at prior Lows).

That's how it happens too...
Apologies for the delay, mate.....been busy elsewhere for some time and this is the first time I've had the opportunity to look at your chart.

I see you use a Bollinger Band. Following your description of how you took the trade, I have to say that you entered too early, mate, IMHO. I know it's easy to say in hindsight, but price at that time was sort of "stuck" in no-man's land between the top band and the median band. I see you have three MA's there as well.

The way price was sort of "up and down" and forming, as you said, bearish and bullish engulfing patterns.....I'm sure you'll notice that it was all happening on your "BASE" line, which, together with the white MA and the median line, formed a pretty strong confluence. Again, with hindsight, it would have been better to wait until the break below the confluence before entering the trade. The result sort of speaks for itself.

Anyway, mate, in no way am I criticizing your thinking.....we all have to weigh things up in our own way, and as I said before, it's easy with hindsight. I just thought I'd share my thoughts with you, that's all.

Thanks for posting the chart, mate. Much appreciated.
Cheers
  • #4,790
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:05am Feb 3, 2010 3:05am
Quoting eyevoltage
Apologies for the delay, mate.....been busy elsewhere for some time and this is the first time I've had the opportunity to look at your chart.

I see you use a Bollinger Band....
Hi EV,

Thank you very much for the feedback! Your thoughts are greatly appreciated.

Just to clarify: BBs and MAs - I use them for a different strategy (and in a different way, i.e. I don't look at price vs BB as such). The "Base" line marks my entry point - I use Fibo extension to mark my entry and top loss (SL), as well as to monitor the progress of my trade in RRs.

I agree that one of the way would be to wait for a break below the confluence/range. At the same time, there is a risk of false breakout. Usually, if I form say Bearish bias, I prefer to enter well before the break - that way I can move my SL to BE if the breakout fails.

With that trade, I should have exited with a small (RR0.2) loss when price stalled after Bearish Engulfing, and then (possibly) re-enter when another Bearish Engulfing formed shortly afterwards. Ah, the benefit of hindsight.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,791
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:19am Feb 3, 2010 3:19am
Quoting Forex007
Hi EV,

Thank you very much for the feedback! Your thoughts are greatly appreciated.

Just to clarify: BBs and MAs - I use them for a different strategy (and in a different way, i.e. I don't look at price vs BB as such). The "Base" line marks my entry point - I use Fibo extension to mark my entry and top loss (SL), as well as to monitor the progress of my trade in RRs.

I agree that one of the way would be to wait for a break below the confluence/range. At the same time, there is a risk of false breakout. Usually, if I form say Bearish bias, I...
All noted, mate, and thanks for clearing the BB/MA mystery up for me!

Cheers
  • #4,792
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:37am Feb 3, 2010 3:37am
Here's two trades just recently finished on eur/usd for a modest amount of pips.

The first one was initiated by the consolidation providing a series of higher lows on the confluence of the 13ema and the xx75 psych-line. Exit just under the xx00 psych-line, but I jumped in again for the second trade once I realized the high-probability of price continuing up, as the separation between price and the 13ema suggested.
Attached Image
  • #4,793
  • Feb 3, 2010 6:07am Feb 3, 2010 6:07am
A short trade on the 5m eur/jpy prompted by the appearance of a higher low candle right on the 13ema/R1 confluence. A brief pause (doji), and then a leap up to the mid-point line and slightly beyond.
Attached Image
  • #4,794
  • Edited 7:01pm Feb 4, 2010 6:42pm | Edited 7:01pm
Sometimes I can and sometimes I can't. Trade during the graveyard shift, I mean. I'm glad I could this time around.

As the chart shows, I missed the first big move, but managed to catch two smaller ones which gives one a good feeling as one heads off to bed!!

The first trade from a pair of railroad tracks on the 13ema/xx50 psych-line confluence, and the second one from a higher low after a retrace to bang on the xx75 psych-line.

Oh, and in case you're wondering, this MT4 platform is GMT +2.

Goodnight, folks.


Edit: The vertical magenta line, by the way, marks the Tokyo opening.
Attached Image
  • #4,795
  • Edited 4:44am Feb 9, 2010 4:43am | Edited 4:44am
Morning, folks.....

Here's a trade I completed earlier on 5m EJ, initiated by a consolidation of higher lows just above the xx75 psych-line. Entry just above the red mid-point line, and exit after price touched the R2 line. I thought about entering after the next pull-back, but decided to wait until any possible breach of R2 line/xx25 psych-line confluence.
Attached Image
  • #4,796
  • Edited 7:03am Feb 9, 2010 7:02am | Edited 7:03am
A nice simple little trade initiated by a hammer retracement to the mid-point/xx25 psych-line confluence. Entry as shown, with exit after a strong momentum candle broke through the R2/xx50 psych-line confluence. On reflection, a premature exit, but still, a nice trade.

Edit: The vertical magenta line is the New York open.
Attached Image
  • #4,797
  • Feb 9, 2010 7:36am Feb 9, 2010 7:36am
I didn't take this trade as I was busy with the previous one at the time. However, this one shows how, in addition to the Pivots and Psych-lines, one can add Fibonacci lines as appropriate, and come up with a real selection of extra targets.

The trade would have been initiated by the Bullish Engulfing Candle in the blue rectangle, after the retracement, with entry just above the confluence of the Fib 0.0 line and the xx00 psych-line. Suggested targets marked as appropriate.
Attached Image
  • #4,798
  • Feb 9, 2010 5:22pm Feb 9, 2010 5:22pm
Hello Folks,

Nice place you got here, lot to read and learn. I have a question on you guys:

I live in Europe and trade mostly the London open, London NY overlap sometimes(because of my job) and the end of the US session. Does it make sense to adjust the settings of my Pivot indicator to London open instead of NY close?

Iīll appreciate some comments.
Thank you very much.

Red.
ps- I have another question: If we got a major trend( daily TF or higher) do we still look for countertrend trades using the open price over/below PP parameter? or we look only for trades in the major trend direction? how do you guys deal with it?
  • #4,799
  • Feb 10, 2010 3:27am Feb 10, 2010 3:27am
Quoting Rednose
Hello Folks,

Nice place you got here, lot to read and learn. I have a question on you guys:

I live in Europe and trade mostly the London open, London NY overlap sometimes(because of my job) and the end of the US session. Does it make sense to adjust the settings of my Pivot indicator to London open instead of NY close?

Iīll appreciate some comments.
Thank you very much.

Red.
ps- I have another question: If we got a major trend( daily TF or higher) do we still look for countertrend trades using the open price over/below PP parameter? or we look...
Pivot settings can be up to the individual, mate. Some like to set them for NY close, whilst others (like me) prefer to work off midnight GMT (or midnight GMT+1 in your neck of the woods). I suppose it's a case of trying the different settings and see what works for you.

In answer to your second question.......seeing as acumen's method centres around the 5m and 15m charts, there doesn't seem much point in looking to see what the DAILY trend is doing. The highest TF I look at to determine which way it's going is the 1H, mate. Of course, this is my opinion only....again, do what works for you, but I hope these comments help.

Cheers
  • #4,800
  • Feb 10, 2010 3:58am Feb 10, 2010 3:58am
Quoting eyevoltage
Pivot settings can be up to the individual, mate....
Hi EyeVoltage,

Many thanks for the answer!

Yes it helps a lot. About the indicator settings: well I thought it could be something individual but acumenīs post(in the old thread) about the 5 pm EST and the automated trading from Big banks made me think... In the other hand I think that maybe each session has its own pivots...donīt know..I have 2 charts opened right now, the first with NY close settings and the second one with London open settings, Iīll be watching them closely.
About the Daily trend...your point of view makes sense to me, if we are trading in lower tfīs like 5M and 15M our "major trend" should be 1H or 4H.

Another detail that I watch are the Quarter Pivots AK4x brought me to them and itīs quite impressive how they work with the EURUSD.(Thanks AK4x!)

Thanks a lot again for the info, Iīll be following this thread.

Good Luck and many profits.

Red.
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