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  • #190,801
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:45am Feb 5, 2010 6:45am
As far as trendlines are concerned we have more down.
Hesitation being observed at the 1.618 price extension of the move from 5145-4213 (3650) means that the new low will be broken, and whatever elliot wave I had before can be trashed. You can see that the red trendline has been holding motions on either side of it quite stiffly, acting like a sort of mirror. Motion will continue to go down and use the red trendline for resistance, the same way that it did when it dropped from 4800. The motion downwards is not going to be swift, but will clear the low of 3650 soon, the double zeros of 3700 will hopefully cap the upward motion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #190,802
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:46am Feb 5, 2010 6:46am
Greece hah.Us deficit worse.Sad
  • #190,803
  • Edited 6:49am Feb 5, 2010 6:47am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting sierra
wait to break 3669 to confirm early start of the southbound train..

Or look for a very bearish candle close on the H4 chart in 12 minutes.
  • #190,804
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:48am Feb 5, 2010 6:48am
Quoting Code4Capital
Well IMO the fundamentals are for the Euro, I don't know where this volume for the dollar are coming from.

and ofc rick santelli right now calling obama administration on its lies.
Ostensibly yes, the Euro fundi's seem better.. But.. I think they have a lot of dead animals in the closet..They won't be able to cover the smell much longer.. The dollar strength is simply people moving out of metals and risk assets.. The dollar benefits.. it's that simple.. It's not because people think the dollar is strong.. I'm gonna try to short the EUR/USD.. doesn't mean I think the USD fundi's are good.. Actully, i'd rather have a room full of cartons of cigs, wisky, food and a bag of silver coins.

EUR/USD will come down to 1.2 by summer.. The the bad news for both with start streaming.. Commodities and hard assets will then triple in price practically over night.. Look at what the chinese are doing behind the scenes.. they know what's coming..

You can talk about the intimate stats and numbers all day.. Doesn't change the base of what an economy is.. Mfg was moved from the West and the debt piled up.. The piper wants paid..

When the average wage in America is enough to buy the average priced house.. I will then look to see a recovery.. Until then... all smoke and mirrors..
  • #190,805
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:53am Feb 5, 2010 6:53am
Quoting sierra
wait to break 3669 to confirm early start of the southbound train..
I am with u
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #190,806
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:54am Feb 5, 2010 6:54am
Quoting Fly2
Greece hah.Us deficit worse.Sad
Exactly:

"“Jean-Claude Trichet is struggling to convince investors that the euro
region shouldn’t be punished for Greece’s budget problems. As Greece
tries to control a record deficit and stem a slide in its bonds, Trichet said
the economy of the 16-nation euro area is solid and its budget shortfall
will probably be smaller than those of the U.S. and Japan this year.
The comments yesterday didn’t stop the euro from tumbling to
a nine-month low against the dollar.”
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #190,807
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:54am Feb 5, 2010 6:54am
Quoting enterfx
Or look for a very bearish candle close on the H4 chart in 12 minutes.
my 4h candle will close another 1 hour.. hope to see it close below today low before confirmed selling pressure is building up towards 3400 area
Be a sniper not a jumper
  • #190,808
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:55am Feb 5, 2010 6:55am
Sorry... the site link is broken.

I've attached the one I use.

It's based on the NY close and works very well.

Mike

PS - Monthly attached also.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 FXI Pivots.ex4   25 KB | 318 downloads
File Type: ex4 P-Monthly.ex4   6 KB | 371 downloads
  • #190,809
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:55am Feb 5, 2010 6:55am
Quoting Kramerica
Ostensibly yes, the Euro fundi's seem better.. But.. I think they have a lot of dead animals in the closet..They won't be able to cover the smell much longer.....
i dont really know whats going to happen to tell you the truth, just whats in front of my face really due to living in the US and of course the media here isn't to fond of downgrading socialist governments.
  • #190,810
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:55am Feb 5, 2010 6:55am
Quoting sierra
wait to break 3669 to confirm early start of the southbound train..
By confirmation do you mean closed candle? i.e. on 5m chart
  • #190,811
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:58am Feb 5, 2010 6:58am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Exactly:

"“Jean-Claude Trichet is struggling to convince investors that the euro
region shouldn’t be punished for Greece’s budget problems. As Greece
tries to control a record deficit and stem a slide in its bonds, Trichet said
the economy of the 16-nation euro area is solid and its budget shortfall
will probably be smaller than those of the U.S. and Japan this year.
The comments yesterday didn’t stop the euro from tumbling to
[b]a nine-month low against the...
Trichet having to make this statement is what worries investors.
  • #190,812
  • Feb 5, 2010 7:00am Feb 5, 2010 7:00am
Quoting sierra
my 4h candle will close another 1 hour.. hope to see it close below today low before confirmed selling pressure is building up towards 3400 area

Youre not expecting 3400 today are you? I'm assuming youre thinking that may next be the next major resistance point?
This is what awesome feels like
  • #190,813
  • Edited 7:30am Feb 5, 2010 7:00am | Edited 7:30am
Nevermind.
Quoting acumen
Sorry... the site link is broken.

I've attached the one I use.

It's based on the NY close and works very well.

Mike

PS - Monthly attached also.
  • #190,814
  • Feb 5, 2010 7:01am Feb 5, 2010 7:01am
equities are correcting, people always panic...
China owns the US so they won't let their investment tank.
But watch out if China starts liquidating their US debt.
  • #190,815
  • Feb 5, 2010 7:02am Feb 5, 2010 7:02am
If you really want to have nightmares watch Glen Beck a couple of times. FOX USA
  • #190,816
  • Feb 5, 2010 7:03am Feb 5, 2010 7:03am
ok I am short now 3668 tp 3646 but might keep it open for more downside move depending on pa, sl as worst case 1.38570. Would like to c 3600-3400, who knows....
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #190,817
  • Feb 5, 2010 7:03am Feb 5, 2010 7:03am
Quoting nms4716
By confirmation do you mean closed candle? i.e. on 5m chart
yes but on my chart closed at 70.. so i'll wait my 4h close where if below today low I can sleep sound this weekend lol ... but maybe 3700 will be retested again... might be..
Be a sniper not a jumper
  • #190,818
  • Feb 5, 2010 7:03am Feb 5, 2010 7:03am
Quoting Code4Capital
Well IMO the fundamentals are for the Euro, I don't know where this volume for the dollar are coming from.

and ofc rick santelli right now calling obama administration on its lies.
i often wonder about this. i know rick, larry, joe and the gang. i just never heard much when 4 trillian was gone in the night. or when the usd was worth even less at dow 14k.. got a little funny math there and a bias. i wonder who pays these guys.. hmmmmmm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #190,819
  • Feb 5, 2010 7:04am Feb 5, 2010 7:04am
most index charts just went south now
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  • #190,820
  • Feb 5, 2010 7:04am Feb 5, 2010 7:04am
Hit my pending short at 3665..waiting to see if it will resume downward trend...have sl at 3685 based on fib retrace.

Thoughts?
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