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AUD/USD

  • #15,521
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:29pm Feb 4, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting shahab8b
that's not just euro, it's risk aversion, all around the gold, all stocks crashed today on the other hand bonds headed higher
ah ok, didn't quite get it just then, thanks
  • #15,522
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:32pm Feb 4, 2010 4:32pm
Wow looks like I missed some action while I slept!

Call options expired at 0 this morning (10PM London time/8AM Sydney time).
  • #15,523
  • Edited 4:45pm Feb 4, 2010 4:34pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
hi amyc ,any chance of a leg up (according to your charts) to take a short again?
Couple of possibilities, if you want a short today maybe try around 8689, top of bar, or 8710. Otherwise it depends on NFP, if it swings us back up above next weeks weekly PP then it should continue up to the 89 area and possibly 90 for a new short. But if not then we continue down to next weeks green lows, currently 8569.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud2.GIF Size: 13 KB
Attached Image
  • #15,524
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:35pm Feb 4, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting sinner-
Wow looks like I missed some action while I slept!

Call options expired at 0 this morning (10PM London time/8AM Sydney time).
Yeah you and me both missed all the action because we were damn sleeping !!
  • #15,525
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:35pm Feb 4, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting tradoholic
Sorry didnt answer your question right. I dont think it will go below the last bottom, but will be very close to it. Again I didnt expect 10000 on the Dow to be broken or even come close to it before march, but it looks like the momentum and the thrust is more than I anticipated. JPY, USD, GBP will be the three strong currencies.
very interesting, do you know that Robert Precher (EWI) has the same idea as your friend does (gold at 650 and lower) , IMO the reason behind unexplianed moves are due to leveraged market, they even mess up with the Elliot wave theory a bit
  • #15,526
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:37pm Feb 4, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting amyc
Couple of possibilities, if you want a short today maybe try around 8669, top of bar, or 8710. Otherwise it depends on NFP, if it swings us back up above next weeks weekly PP then it should continue up to the 89 area and possibly 90 for a new short. But if not then we continue down to next weeks green lows, currently 8569.
thanx a lot for the explanation, I'm loading for the shorts, the higher it goes the better RRR
  • #15,527
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:39pm Feb 4, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting BobbyBob
Nothing is impossible. here how i see it in relations to the non-farm news.

Forecast: +3K
There will be mass selling of AUD/USD if >+50K
A temporary retracment back up to 88 if <-50K

If neutral: will range between 0.88-0.86 for a few days before heading back down
do you have a platform to enter the # to take a trade for you in mini sec?
  • #15,528
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:53pm Feb 4, 2010 4:53pm
Quoting shahab8b
very interesting, do you know that Robert Precher (EWI) has the same idea as your friend does (gold at 650 and lower) , IMO the reason behind unexplianed moves are due to leveraged market, they even mess up with the Elliot wave theory a bit
I will check that about Robert Precher. I closed all my positions, will wait till the afternoon here ( sydney) till I decide which way to go. Will post later. Good luck.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #15,529
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:57pm Feb 4, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting shahab8b
look who is here!! hi Kristo, welcome back,
how have you been? seems you are going to be well in money in a week or two- if not sooner
Hi Shahab8b,

I have been well - thanks for asking. I decided to take a hiatus from the thread after my rant late last year. The positions are tracking nicely, although I have been advocating Short for a while now. This evening will be interesting at NFP release and I am expecting some fireworks.
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #15,530
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:57pm Feb 4, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Yeah you and me both missed all the action because we were damn sleeping !!
Ya man, it was the only time I wish I wouldn't have hit my TP.
  • #15,531
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:59pm Feb 4, 2010 4:59pm
Weekly chart of dollar index. If it closes out the week above 79.91 then I see it heading up towards the blue highs at 86.41. That can happen this Quarter or in Q2, a lot depends on NFP tonight.

Note I put the wrong sell target in the previous post, I ment to say 8689 not 8669.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.GIF Size: 16 KB
  • #15,532
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:12pm Feb 4, 2010 5:12pm
On February 5th January unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls will be released. The unemployment rate is
expected to rise by 0.1% to 10.1% and nonfarm payrolls expected at -5k compared to -85k last month. December
consumer credit will also be released on February 5th expected at -8bln compared to -17.5bln last month.
  • #15,533
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:23pm Feb 4, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting shahab8b
do you have a platform to enter the # to take a trade for you in mini sec?
No, i'll be doing it manually.
I'll wait for the release
wait about 40-60secs for a ~50% retracment
and then make the trade, if the release is neutral.. i'll be going to sleep
  • #15,534
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:34pm Feb 4, 2010 5:34pm
i dont know if we're gonna get anymore retrace then what we have had. we're facing resistance now. news should pull it down from here.
what do u think?
  • #15,535
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:59pm Feb 4, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting Clouds
i dont know if we're gonna get anymore retrace then what we have had. we're facing resistance now. news should pull it down from here.
what do u think?
This is the first time in 34 hours that the AUD has challenged that Time Forcasted Linear Regression line that I have on my 60 minute chart. It it is the red line running through my candles. Obviously, I wouldn't be surprised if it is rejected, but I would be very careful.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 60 min AUDUSD 2-4-10.pdf   14 KB | 320 downloads
  • #15,536
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:05pm Feb 4, 2010 6:05pm
Quoting Ducci
This is the first time in 34 hours that the AUD has challenged that Time Forcasted Linear Regression line that I have on my 60 minute chart. It it is the red line running through my candles. Obviously, I wouldn't be surprised if it is rejected, but I would be very careful.
yes, i saw that...

i'm watching .8690, .8700 and .8730 to hold as resistance
  • #15,537
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:17pm Feb 4, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting Ducci
So what is your exit plan for all of this profit....
Hello brother
1-Of course i have exit plan and TP1, TP2 AND SL
2-I do 2 things for my trade
A- where are we now on big picture and use normal methods TL and Ichimoku
B- What Economy reports say by "Numbers and Charts"

When both met i know I'm on the right track
Make it simple and check Good traders post for example Doblece post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post3319951

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...on#post3344676
  • #15,538
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:18pm Feb 4, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting Ducci
This is the first time in 34 hours that the AUD has challenged that Time Forcasted Linear Regression line that I have on my 60 minute chart. It it is the red line running through my candles. Obviously, I wouldn't be surprised if it is rejected, but I would be very careful.
Here is my 60 Min Gold Index Chart, and 15 Min AUDUSD.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 Min AUDUSD 2-4-10.jpg Size: 159 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 60 Min Gold 2-4-10.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #15,539
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:34pm Feb 4, 2010 6:34pm
Quoting Ducci
Here is my 60 Min Gold Index Chart, and 15 Min AUDUSD.
so what do u think is gonna happen
  • #15,540
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:49pm Feb 4, 2010 6:49pm
Quoting Clouds
so what do u think is gonna happen
I don't like where the dollar is, but is coming down. I am going to wait to see if it breaks the line going down, which it hasn't broke through the line in 34 hours either. The line that you have AUDUSD pushing against as Resistance, I have as a pivot. I took the lines off of my 15 min to send before, here it is with my lines. The next resistance line is a little tough to see because every time a new high or low is established I have my chart draw a line that I check for additional support and resistance. My R1 is sitting at .87787. I have also attached my latest 60 minute dollar chart with lines. It doesn't look to me like the dollar is coming down, and we are headed back down? I am still in the observation mode right now because these kinds of runs really screw up my indicators for a little bit.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 60 Min Gold with lines.jpg Size: 162 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 Min AUDUSD with lines.jpg Size: 149 KB
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