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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #30,921
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:32am Feb 3, 2010 7:32am
Hey BKG I would ordinarily wish you luck but I am short since 1.402 and expecting much lower.

I hope there is a bounce to let you pick up some pips or at least break even



Quoting bkg102665
We just had a nice 35/50 cross on eur/usd and it happened at the high of yesterday so I am long, as we speak that may not work out s/l 1.3960
  • #30,922
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:36am Feb 3, 2010 7:36am
Quoting robgsxr
Hey BKG I would ordinarily wish you luck but I am short since 1.402 and expecting much lower.

I hope there is a bounce to let you pick up some pips or at least break even
No problem, good luck on your trade!
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #30,923
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:37am Feb 3, 2010 7:37am
Quoting DavidM
Thx. Tis a nuance that had evaded! dah!


It's one part of EO's method that I took to early on as I find it helps give me a quick orientation as to where we're at.

There's the 15m 35sma (the 50ema is often not far away from it too for obvious reasons) and price will currently either be above it or below it (or sitting right on it of course).

When she's not ready to break in one direction or the other the +/- 35 pip range can often send her back to the 15m ma's while she makes her mind up. I personally like the 35 pip level to coincide with either a previous price action level or a 15m pa candle (pin, hammer, hangman etc.) for extra confidence.

I don't know the statistics and I won't even pretend to know how or why it works but it's uncanny how many times it does come into play. Even if it didn't work as a trade entry trigger, I find it really useful just for the way it helps me orientate myself on the 15m chart.

Macc
  • #30,924
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:44am Feb 3, 2010 7:44am
Quoting macc


It's one part of EO's method that I took to early on as I find it helps give me a quick orientation as to where we're at.

There's the 15m 35sma (the 50ema is often not far away from it too for obvious reasons) and price will currently either be above it or below it (or sitting right on it of course).

When she's not ready to break in one direction or the other the +/- 35 pip range can often send her back to the 15m ma's while she makes her mind up. I personally like the 35 pip level to coincide with either a previous price action...
I took the 35/50 cross on eur/usd a few minutes ago based off of it happening at the high of yesterday.Was I wrong or just one of those times it did not work?
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #30,925
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:13am Feb 3, 2010 8:13am
Quoting bkg102665
I took the 35/50 cross on eur/usd a few minutes ago based off of it happening at the high of yesterday.Was I wrong or just one of those times it did not work?
Sorry Bkg, just back to my screen.

I don't actually follow EU so can't comment on your specific trade but having an extra reason to trade the 35/50 cross (such as an area of supp/res, swing high/low, previous PA etc.) is always a good thing in my book.
They don't always work out I guess but I'm no expert and so would probably struggle to pick out why yours didn't in this particular case (if there was a reason that is). Playing them with relatively tight stops helps to ensure the winners stack the pips green against the losers.

Macc
  • #30,926
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:14am Feb 3, 2010 8:14am
Quoting macc


It's one part of EO's method that I took to early on as I find it helps give me a quick orientation as to where we're at.

There's the 15m 35sma (the 50ema is often not far away from it too for obvious reasons) and price will currently either be above it or below it (or sitting right on it of course).

When she's not ready to break in one direction or the other the +/- 35 pip range can often send her back to the 15m ma's while she makes her mind up. I personally like the 35 pip level to coincide with either a previous price action...
If no one understands this, please read it again, AGAIN and AGAIN until you do. This is one of the foundations for this method.

Good job Macc!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #30,927
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:21am Feb 3, 2010 8:21am
Quoting bkg102665
ON THIS TRADE DO YOU USUALLY WHAT FOR IT TO BACKUP FOR A BETTER ENTRY, i HAVE A PENDING SELL ORDER WAITING AT 5985
Here's how my original system called to play the candle that closes through the m15 35. If price is heading south and closed at 5900, I would put an order to sell at 5860 with my SL 10 pips higher than the high of the candle that closed through the m15 35, once I was 25 pips in profit, I would take half off and trail the rest with a trailing SL of 25 pips.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #30,928
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:31am Feb 3, 2010 8:31am
Quoting eohater
If no one understands this, please read it again, AGAIN and AGAIN until you do. This is one of the foundations for this method.

Good job Macc!
It certainly proved to be one of the foundations that helped me adopt and understand your method EO. I came from a background of higher timeframe support and resistance so when it was time to get dirty in the trenches on the 15m chart and attempt to pick better, smarter entries with reduced stops, this part of your method really spoke to me.

Macc
  • #30,929
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:34am Feb 3, 2010 8:34am
Quoting macc
It certainly proved to be one of the foundations that helped me adopt and understand your method EO. I came from a background of higher timeframe support and resistance so when it was time to get dirty in the trenches on the 15m chart and attempt to pick better, smarter entries with reduced stops, this part of your method really spoke to me.

Macc
Outstanding brother! I came from the HTF trades as well, which is why it's easier for us to understand S/R on the HTF. Combine the HTF S/R with the m15 and viola, a light goes off in your head.

Just wait til this time next year! You're going to be amazed!!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #30,930
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:38am Feb 3, 2010 8:38am
Quoting eohater
Here's how my original system called to play the candle that closes through the m15 35. If price is heading south and closed at 5900, I would put an order to sell at 5860 with my SL 10 pips higher than the high of the candle that closed through the m15 35, once I was 25 pips in profit, I would take half off and trail the rest with a trailing SL of 25 pips.

so... just to point out the numbers... (and to check if i got u right)

a bearish candle which open at 5915 and close at 5900 and just crossed the m15 35 (let's say the 35 MA was at 5910). U would put a sell order at 5860 with SL at 5925 (65 pips??? wow, that's a lot), with first TP at 5835 (where u close half position) and let the rest go with trailing SL of 25 pips.

Did i got u right?
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #30,931
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:42am Feb 3, 2010 8:42am
Quoting dario1002
so... just to point out the numbers... (and to check if i got u right)

a bearish candle which open at 5915 and close at 5900 and just crossed the m15 35 (let's say the 35 MA was at 5910). U would put a sell order at 5860 with SL at 5925 (65 pips??? wow, that's a lot), with first TP at 5835 (where u close half position) and let the rest go with trailing SL of 25 pips.

Did i got u right?
That's correct! Now, you've pointed out the HUGE SL of 65 pips, I didn't even have that big of one's trading HTF, so I began tweeking the system, adding ma's, understanding my PA. On your above example, buyers would pound her around the price of 5970-5975 and send her back up. From here, there are multiple ways to play the move. If price clears the 35 pip price, let it come back and take an entry short off the ma's on the m15.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #30,932
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:46am Feb 3, 2010 8:46am
Anyone notice how many times the price bounced off the 1hr 62 on GJ today??
  • #30,933
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:47am Feb 3, 2010 8:47am
By the way, Good MAE everyone.
  • #30,934
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:48am Feb 3, 2010 8:48am
Good afternoon luckylady
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #30,935
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:49am Feb 3, 2010 8:49am
Quoting luckylady
Anyone notice how many times the price bounced off the 1hr 62 on GJ today??
looked like a picket fence on 15min
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #30,936
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:50am Feb 3, 2010 8:50am
Quoting luckylady
Anyone notice how many times the price bounced off the 1hr 62 on GJ today??
Did you take them? For me the range is too narrow to play the dragon. It's just too volatile.
  • #30,937
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:51am Feb 3, 2010 8:51am
Quoting perez
Did you take them? For me the range is too narrow to play the dragon. It's just too volatile.
Unfortunately I couldn't trade today at all.
  • #30,938
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:51am Feb 3, 2010 8:51am
Quoting Gladis Night
looked like a picket fence on 15min
  • #30,939
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:52am Feb 3, 2010 8:52am
Quoting macc
It certainly proved to be one of the foundations that helped me adopt and understand your method EO. I came from a background of higher timeframe support and resistance so when it was time to get dirty in the trenches on the 15m chart and attempt to pick better, smarter entries with reduced stops, this part of your method really spoke to me.

Macc
Hi macc,

I have a question regarding your last post. Do you trade only when the price bounces from/breaking a HTF s&r?
  • #30,940
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:54am Feb 3, 2010 8:54am
Quoting luckylady
Unfortunately I couldn't trade today at all.
Hope all is ok with you
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
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