AUD/USD

patternwise speaking it's already satisfied what should be done-retrace whole diagonal move- I'm neural on that one Hr but ,4Hr is still bullish

I agree with this, shorts don't look quite right to me yet based on the position of dx. I am trying to short the euro down to 1.3810 this week but I think it may still rise up to 1.3970ish before that happens. Aud and cable completed their down moves on Monday so there is no need for them to trade any lower this week than they have already. My feeling is we may just move sideways between 88 and 90 for the rest of the week.

you are probably right but rate hike is due in 2-3 hr , should give this one some nice move, if they surpise the market with a pause ,they sell it heavily IMO

on the hourly, it looks it's about ready to free-fall to me, when it tested the lows of 1075, it didn't just bounce and go up, it stayed down there for 3 days. 1100 significant psychological resistance - perhaps it'll test the low again, and break it soon

lots of speculation as always:

0007 GMT [Dow Jones] Barclays Capital chief FX strategist Japan Masafumi Yamamoto expects RBA to hike its cash rate 25 bps to 4.00% later in day on back of rosy economic data; "The Australian dollar's rise will be very modest even if the RBA raises its rates later," he says, because FX market's main trading focus currently on equity moves rather than interest rates. But over longer term, AUD should strengthen as RBA expected to hike its rates to 5.5% toward year end. Tips AUD/JPY 1-month target at 81.88, 6-month at 83.60, one-year at 85.00. AUD/JPY last 80.96.(TMO)

My speculation is AUD/USD will touch .64 and by the end of the year be at .84
It's too bad we have play around at top for so long...

More shorts to take for you clouds while its up there !

Well, I don't see us getting .64 today so I am taking TP or hopefully at least break even before the announcement. Too many people sitting back to wait and see. I almost feel like I needed to tap the screen on my dollar index, which is finally moving a little now.

silver actually looks closer to aud , then gold
and it bothers me about 16 support, for shorts
though a sell order slightly below might pan out

last month, at the beginning of the month, the AUD went up, and then went down later. hmm

Nikkei up big early, clearly there is still appetite for risky assets, which should bode well for the AUD and NZD. gold is holding above 1100, which is also a good sign going into rate decision.

Thanks Peter/DT, I saw it on the calendar at 10:30 pm just wanted to make sure. There for a minute on this forum it sounded like it was happening any second.

Dollar looks good to go up now, been waiting for that down bar to complete all week. It should head up into 80ish.

nzd/usd looks easier to read than aud/usd, however, both travel similar.

so most of the pair charts tell us that the aus should drop, yet i get the feeling everyone is waiting to go long after the announcement? not long now and we will know!!

gold is back on the move north. if it gets above 1106 and closes, expect further move north for the AUD.

Quoted from: Yahoo finance. Posted here

"Australian Dollar: Why an RBA Rate Hike Will Likely Turn Out Bearish
Saturday January 30, 2010, 12:25 am

For the uninitiated or uninformed currency trader, the upcoming rate decision may seem a clear point of strength for the Aussie that can perhaps revive its lost strength. However, there are few circumstances under which this event will turn out bullish for the currency. At the last policy meeting, the policy officials raised the benchmark lending rate 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. This was an extraordinary event because the global economy is generally struggling to get back on its feet and the policy authority had never before hiked at three consecutive meetings. This time around, the tally is up to an unprecedented four consecutive hikes (economists are calling for another quarter point hike and the market is pricing in a 67 percent probability of the same); and yet domestic data has actually cooled and the global economy is in no better condition. With China taking steps to cool its growth, a major trade partner is in effect pinching off a vital artery of growth. Furthermore, the commentary that accompanied the last rate decision was clearly laying the path for a more reserved policy approach going forward. Altogether there are a few scenarios that can come out of this event. If the bank does hike to 4.00 percent, they will most likely further indicate that a pause is up next. Since one more hike is priced in, this will kill speculation going beyond. If they hold (a considerable probability), the Aussie dollar’s declines will be further fueled. Only a hike and commentary that leaves the door open to a follow up hike at the next meeting will be deemed bullish.

Outside the pull of the rate decision there is plenty of market moving economic data. In the lead up to the event, both the TD Securities consumer inflation report and government housing price pressure gauge will be used to gauge the probability of a hike. After the event, the RBA will release its Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement. Any uncertainty after the rate decision about the timing of further policy adjustments will be laid to rest with this report. As for economic activity, the retail sales, trade balance and business confidence report will offer a broad view of the entire economy. - JK"

Hi Caroline,

how are you doing? I read this on FXCM over the weekend.

I am of the opinion that RBA wont raise rates this time but will keep doors open for a further rate rise next month.

So after an initial sell off, we will see a decent rally in this pair.

I am short from .8850 with TP at .8735 and S/L at .8990.

if anyone want to listen live to the decision
www.news.com.au

2:15pm Sydney time
1:15pm Qld time

enjoy

Well I cashed out with 15 PIP's on my short from .89215 to wait and see where this goes. Even if we guess right, it would be really tricky to time this one before the announcement.