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The Dragon

  • #61
  • Jan 30, 2010 3:48am Jan 30, 2010 3:48am
Quoting MrChips
Hi Jiva

What does it mean when there is separation between the 2 HA Indicatiors?

I really like your system and I'm having some sucess with it but I need to understand I little some of the small issues. I had 5 of 6 winners for +80 pips during NY Session BUT 1 of 5 winners in Asian session.

Thanks for your input - please don't give up on this thread. It's simple enough for me to understand and I think I can be successful with it if you stay with it!!!

JIm (Mr Chips)
I'm not aware of how to use this. If you discover some new aspect please let us know. Maybe the dragon will reveal some new and exciting feature of himself to you...
  • #62
  • Jan 30, 2010 10:31am Jan 30, 2010 10:31am
Hi

I attached a pic of what I mean. In some cases the 2 HA indicators are touching and in some cases there is a space between them and they appear to be longer as well. Does that mean anything or is that just the way the indicators are?

Also, does it matter that the DSS is going down well before the change in trend/price?

Thanks - I appreciate your examples. I need to learn more about the Dragon. Right now sometimes I get it sometimes I don't.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 59 KB
Jim (MrChips)
  • #63
  • Edited Jan 31, 2010 1:30am Jan 30, 2010 11:14am | Edited Jan 31, 2010 1:30am
Quoting MrChips
Hi

I attached a pic of what I mean. In some cases the 2 HA indicators are touching and in some cases there is a space between them and they appear to be longer as well. Does that mean anything or is that just the way the indicators are?

Also, does it matter that the DSS is going down well before the change in trend/price?

Thanks - I appreciate your examples. I need to learn more about the Dragon. Right now sometimes I get it sometimes I don't.
Thank you for posting. Your chart looks fine.
It's going to take a while for all the pieces to come together. We have to get to know the dragon. We can not know him in his entirety all at once. Over the course of associating we come to know him. So the more you can watch his movements the better.
Like a cat watching a fish bowl. With rapt attention.
.http://www.fotosearch.com/bthumb/FSD.../x22295597.jpg

To try to address your specific questions...
In some cases the 2 HA indicators are touching and in some cases there is a space between them and they appear to be longer as well. Does that mean anything or is that just the way the indicators are?
Yes I see the spaces. I'm sure it indicates something. I have not tried to analyze this for my own decision making.
Since this has caught your attention it may be that over a period of time some helpful bit of insight may come to you from the dragon himself.
He may be revealing to you personally something about himself that you will be the fortunate one to understand in your unique relationship with him.
This is what is so fantastic about this system, it is based on a fundamentally different approach. The dragon is a living entity and can communicate with us.

Also, does it matter that the DSS is going down well before the change in trend/price?
In general when the dss drops down below 80 it means he is done buying for a while. Or he has lost interest in buying. It doesn't always mean he is interested in selling. Just he has lost interest in buying. That is a good observation that the dss has dropped early. Does it mean that it can predict the dragon will go down soon? Possibly. You would need to look for other instances where this was the case. The more you try to work the system the more it will be revealed to you if that is a good sign to rely on or not.
I have not tried to use that myself I use additional time frames for reference. You have the 5m posted. I would look at the 15 min to see if this was just a brief pause in his buying and if he was still interested in buying on the 15 min. Like in the previous posts where I used two charts. If dss on the 15 min was going up then I would look to enter when the dss on 5m started to go up again. That is simplified but basically the idea I use.
The more you look at the charts and try to follow the more it will start to come to you. The pieces will come together. It will take time and determination. As you do your own research you will get your own insights.
The more I work with the dragon the more I think he is unlimited.
  • #64
  • Jan 31, 2010 12:12am Jan 31, 2010 12:12am
Let's take a look at the macd.
If the dss tells us the dragon's state of mind,
the macd tells us whether or not and to what degree he is acting on his thoughts.
From a previous post photoshot the chart shows the dragon sleeping, in his mind there is all kinds of selling and buying going on the dss shows us that, but macd says he is not acting on any of it in any significant way. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264840711
By getting a good grasp of the significance of the indicators we can use them effectively.
That is why I am taking the time and effort to go into the logic and reasons behind what the dss and macd are measuring.
Then a cross of macd can be understood in the context of the dragon's overall state.
Without getting a good grasp of the underlying significance it is exactly like trying to learn to read by rote. There is no comprehension...
Unfortunately this is the standard of education for institutions in the US and most likely for most of the rest of the world. It's quick and easy. But the results are not very great...
  • #65
  • Jan 31, 2010 12:28am Jan 31, 2010 12:28am
I want to show some screen shots of the dynamics between macd and dss but I will need to do that on a live demo since it will require 2 time frames up on the screen simultaneously and the simulator does not allow for that, and it is not practical to try to do that when the market is closed.
I can show some simulator trades in the meantime but they will not be as effective...
  • #66
  • Jan 31, 2010 1:23am Jan 31, 2010 1:23am
we need to be able to learn from our errors.
Failures are the pillars of success, the saying goes..
If we are not too proud to own our mistakes or blind spots we can really learn.
The following screenshot from a simulator session shows a number of things.
I will qualify this by saying in live trading I would not just have the one time frame for reference. Precisely for the reason this practice session illustrates. There is far too much guess work for me with only one time frame showing.
#1,#2,#3: dss is dropping rapidly but the dragon is not selling much and macd is climbing nicely.. So I take it that he is distracted by thinking about selling but he is not actually selling, he still wants to buy. No short entry.
also no long entry, since there is Not enough confirmation for me, (again with a higher time frame on the screen it would help)
#4 cross of macd, dss in agreement, olive candles.. good for a short scalp.
#5 cross of macd, dss in agreement, green candles, because the dragon is drawn very strongly to the 200ema, that is a good target.. I try to close going into the move rather than wait for the crest and jump out as he falls.
The few seconds that the broker takes to finish the order can get me a few more pips if I close going into the move, whereas that same delay for the broker if the move is over and is now reversing loses pips...
#6 again the same conditions cross of macd, dss in agreement, olive candles. I entered alittle too early here, and had to wait out a retracement.
Again with the benefit of a higher time frame on the screen I could have avoided that.
#7 the best trade of the day...(lesson time - another pillar) A mistake.. I saw the dss going up the dragon is thinking about buying, but he was not buying... I did not wait for dss to confirm he had given up considering buying and was ready to sell. The macd did give a selling cross I entered short.. Ahhh, the mind, fickle...He decided he would buy after all and I took a loss giving back a good portion of the day's gains. Again, consulting a higher time frame would have helped avoid this.. I guess I just can't emphasize enough the significance of using a higher time frame before making decisions.
Something to note on this screen-shot is "the zone". The area between the pivot line (thick yellow horizontal) and the 200 ema (thick lime moving average line). The dragon will tend to take a snooze there. Maybe it's like a shady grove for him.... zzzzzz.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-30 1.gif Size: 49 KB
  • #67
  • Jan 31, 2010 2:15am Jan 31, 2010 2:15am
During the week I will try to take screen-shots of live sessions to further illustrate the use of different time frames.
Anyone out there following this?
Questions?
http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:K...ow-5-large.jpg
  • #68
  • Jan 31, 2010 4:48am Jan 31, 2010 4:48am
Good job here Jiva,

Informative and fun. I'm enjoying your posts.

I've noticed the higher probability trades are the ones when the macd crosses on the first or second DSS dot after colour change (first or second red or green dot). Seems to be a stronger move when this happens.

What you think?

Wes
  • #69
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:11am Jan 31, 2010 5:11am
Quoting wesnel
Good job here Jiva,

Informative and fun. I'm enjoying your posts.

I've noticed the higher probability trades are the ones when the macd crosses on the first or second DSS dot after colour change (first or second red or green dot). Seems to be a stronger move when this happens.

What you think?

Wes
I agree a 2nd dot for dss is more conclusive. If you notice there is an alert for dss and it sounds and the pop up is there when the 2nd dot forms for a color change.
Glad to hear the dragon's getting your attention.
He certainly has mine..
  • #70
  • Jan 31, 2010 6:32am Jan 31, 2010 6:32am
Quoting jiva34
I agree a 2nd dot for dss is more conclusive. If you notice there is an alert for dss and it sounds and the pop up is there when the 2nd dot forms for a color change.
Glad to hear the dragon's getting your attention.
He certainly has mine..
Yeah having the alert definitely makes it easier.
  • #71
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:50am Jan 31, 2010 7:50am
Hi Jiva

Good job - I agree that the second dot of dss is like a confirmation of direction. Also, I think - only by observation - that the separation I spoke of yesterday shows how fast the dragon wants to get where he's going! If you notice how steep the angle when we have those separations.

I look forward to learning more about the dragon and confirming on higher timeframes. We let the dragon sleep until market open!!!

Jim (MrChips)
Jim (MrChips)
  • #72
  • Jan 31, 2010 9:06am Jan 31, 2010 9:06am
Quoting MrChips
Hi Jiva

Good job - I agree that the second dot of dss is like a confirmation of direction. Also, I think - only by observation - that the separation I spoke of yesterday shows how fast the dragon wants to get where he's going! If you notice how steep the angle when we have those separations.

I look forward to learning more about the dragon and confirming on higher timeframes. We let the dragon sleep until market open!!!

Jim (MrChips)
How fast...... Like eager..
Interesting.
Let's keep an eye on that and see if there is a way to read the "eagerness indicator".
I appreciate your eagerness...
Yes higher times frames is next.....
  • #73
  • Jan 31, 2010 10:01am Jan 31, 2010 10:01am
Just wondering if these trade examples on a M15 was a mistake? Wrong TF?

I understand the need to look at a higher TF, but it appears you are making trade examples off the wrong chart. Thought trades were taken off a M1

thx,
todd

Quoting jiva34
we need to be able to learn from our errors.
Failures are the pillars of success, the saying goes..
If we are not too proud to own our mistakes or blind spots we can really learn.
The following screenshot from a simulator session shows a number of things.
I will qualify this by saying in live trading I would not just have the one time frame for reference. Precisely for the reason this practice session illustrates. There is far too much guess work for me with only one time frame showing.
#1,#2,#3: dss is dropping...
  • #74
  • Jan 31, 2010 2:16pm Jan 31, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting todd960960
Just wondering if these trade examples on a M15 was a mistake? Wrong TF?

I understand the need to look at a higher TF, but it appears you are making trade examples off the wrong chart. Thought trades were taken off a M1

thx,
todd
re:15min time frame
yes, these screenshots are 15 min time frame. They are practice sessions using a simulator program for mt4. In live trading I take trades on the 1m with reference to higher time frames, but the simulator program I have runs way too fast set on 1m to be practical, so I use the 15 min on the simulator. Also it is not possible to have a 1m and say a 5m up on the screen at the same time using the simulator, so it is really limited in a lot of ways.
If you know of another simulator program I'd be interested in trying it out.
Thanks...
Download for this simulator is posted on post #7.
  • #75
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:04pm Jan 31, 2010 8:04pm
Try this simulator it does everything including opening, closing orders...
Hope it works for you....put all the files in Experts/scripts---drag it onto chart and under "common" make sure all squares have a check mark except "confirm dll function calls--it should have no checkmark
The Eegle




Quoting jiva34
re:15min time frame
yes, these screenshots are 15 min time frame. They are practice sessions using a simulator program for mt4. In live trading I take trades on the 1m with reference to higher time frames, but the simulator program I have runs way too fast set on 1m to be practical, so I use the 15 min on the simulator. Also it is not possible to have a 1m and say a 5m up on the screen at the same time using the simulator, so it is really limited in a lot of ways.
If you know of another simulator program I'd be interested in trying it out.
Thanks...
Download...
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip SEND.zip   9 KB | 437 downloads
  • #76
  • Feb 1, 2010 5:09am Feb 1, 2010 5:09am
Quoting eegle
Try this simulator it does everything including opening, closing orders...
Hope it works for you....put all the files in Experts/scripts---drag it onto chart and under "common" make sure all squares have a check mark except "confirm dll function calls--it should have no checkmark
The Eegle
Thank you,
will give a try...
  • #77
  • Edited Feb 2, 2010 12:21am Feb 1, 2010 5:33am | Edited Feb 2, 2010 12:21am
I don't usually think of posting during trading hours since I want to focus just on trading.
I did manage to capture a few screen shots that can be useful to illustrate the kinds of things I look for.
I did not place any trades since I was not confident of any strong setups. However the screenshots are helpful anyway.
Patience is absolutely necessary in order to be successful.
The tendency is to trade just for the sake of trading. Not a good practice... Rather that is a good way to lose money...
#1. Look for momentum. The trading session should be active and lively. Not lethargic and not crazy with whipsaws everywhere. Just active and trending.
#2. The general direction the dragon is moving should be easily identifiable aside from all the little ups and downs.
#3. Give special attention around data release times. I wait until the data has come out and consider trading after the dragon has decided how he will react.
If I cannot figure out what is going on I do not trade. Market conditions change very quickly. In a little while the whole scene will change and I will still have capital to trade with. Even if I do not trade for the whole day. So what! I will wait until I know what is going on. Sometimes it may be that the dragon himself does not know what is going on. So how am I supposed to know if he doesn't know?
I will post the screen shots in a little while.
  • #78
  • Feb 1, 2010 6:09am Feb 1, 2010 6:09am
Chart 1. Result of trading when crazy with whipsaws

Chart 2. Result of trading when active and trending.

Wes
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 01-02-2010 02-04-15 PM.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 01-02-2010 02-06-12 PM.png Size: 45 KB
  • #79
  • Feb 1, 2010 6:34pm Feb 1, 2010 6:34pm
Hi jiva34

Waiting for your lesson on checking higher time frames. I know it's more important to make money trading - but if you have some time I'm eager to learn.

Jim (MrChips)
Jim (MrChips)
  • #80
  • Feb 2, 2010 12:31am Feb 2, 2010 12:31am
Quoting wesnel
Chart 1. Result of trading when crazy with whipsaws

Chart 2. Result of trading when active and trending.

Wes
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn<i.../gold_star.jpg
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