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  • #187,161
  • Jan 30, 2010 1:23am Jan 30, 2010 1:23am
Quoting TrooperCoope
Keep in mind, next week is NFP. Forecasts are good numbers for USD. More meltdown incoming?
I think so. Europe is seriously (pretending) to struggle with Greece.
  • #187,162
  • Edited 2:09am Jan 30, 2010 1:59am | Edited 2:09am
Just open gold chart . Assuming it has completed wave 5 as per monthly tf & big correction due. Presently in c or 3 whatever down comparatively too small have taken place. last month broke a tl & price now rest on a bigger tl daily.Will it break straight before a considerabe bounce ? I have doubt now and how eu will do this time ,follow gold or loss correlation ?

Just food to think about.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #187,163
  • Jan 30, 2010 2:11am Jan 30, 2010 2:11am
Hi Friends,


http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/1235/eurusdkq.jpg

According to this analysis the EUR/USD should make a correction till 1,40xx . Is anyone aggree with me?
  • #187,164
  • Edited 3:02am Jan 30, 2010 2:19am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting fontu
Just open gold chart . Assuming it has completed wave 5 as per monthly tf & big correction due. Presently in c or 3 whatever down comparatively too small have taken place. last month broke a tl & price now rest on a bigger tl daily.Will it break straight before a considerabe bounce ? I have doubt now and how eu will do this time ,follow gold or loss correlation ?

Just food to think about.
fontu
Morning Fontu!

Gator said something about gold that the fact a correlating market is just sitting on a major pivot is keeping it from making new lows. I think it was ZAR, but not sure.

If it brakes 1074, 1065 area should be immediate target for short term downmove.
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  • #187,165
  • Edited 2:39am Jan 30, 2010 2:25am | Edited 2:39am
I really dont think it can go south much further. Next week is a profit taking week. The Euro has weaken jusy only a Greece issue and not more than that okay. I have buy orders in hold and when I look at Weekly timeframe, the trand is still belong to bullish and this week it stop exactly at 200 Moving Average. Since the Greece is not control by a Global monetry eventhough China, the intervene by the goverment is likely and very clear. I believe that Euro fall is purely dominate by a Goverment and not by a Global problems. The VIX is a fear index but it is still remain below 30. If the Euro keep bear, I really think that it may reach at 1.3500 maximum then it will rebound to 1.4000 key level. I dont see any correlation E/U with other pairs at the moment so this is my suspicious about the matters.

Obama announcing about deploy of big employment before the NFP makes EU fall like hell and Mr Ben perhaps used his power to dominate the dollar before the trial so all the vote will pass for hiim to continue service with the govermant. So all these I really think Why EU fall so mucbefore comes in February.

Most probably Euro will raise the key rate first.
  • #187,166
  • Jan 30, 2010 2:25am Jan 30, 2010 2:25am
Quoting Mr Hatch
I think so. Europe is seriously (pretending) to struggle with Greece.
Egg Zactly! Except europe isn't pretending anything, JC Trichet is tired of saying "we need a strong dollar". Greece can be an excuse, not a reason.

Greece has nothing to do with current forex rates, everyone looks for a "reason" when some major movement or a trend develops, and believe me when I say that Greece or Spain or any other EU country debt situation has nothing to do with the current rise of the dollar.

Resuming, I'm still short, my farm will harvest near 1.35. By then I'll get out and evalutate if we go lower (1.28ish) or if we bounce up.
Traders are smartasses
  • #187,167
  • Jan 30, 2010 2:37am Jan 30, 2010 2:37am
Couldn't agree with you more. People need to stop looking for "reasons" and stop trying to analyse the news and just look at what's going on in front of them and get positioned with it rather than trying to fight it.

Quoting Spsantos
Egg Zactly! Except europe isn't pretending anything, JC Trichet is tired of saying "we need a strong dollar". Greece can be an excuse, not a reason.

Greece has nothing to do with current forex rates, everyone looks for a "reason" when some major movement or a trend develops, and believe me when I say that Greece or Spain or any other EU country debt situation has nothing to do with the current rise of the dollar.

Resuming, I'm still short, my farm will harvest near 1.35. By then I'll get out and evalutate if we go lower (1.28ish) or if we...
  • #187,168
  • Edited 3:04am Jan 30, 2010 2:38am | Edited 3:04am
Quoting TrooperCoope
Morning Fontu!

Gator said something about gold that the fact a correlating market is just sitting on a major pivot is keeping it from making new lows. I think it was ZAR, but not sure.

If it brakes 1074, 1065 are should be immediate target for short term downmove.
Morning TrooperCoope! thanks.I think there is also a h&s as I see gold thread at the neckline now for validation & what will work may be a confusion .Hope gator , grashid & others will shade light about it.
Technically for any action there seems a reason but fundamental analysis should shade more light perhaps.
Thanks ,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #187,169
  • Jan 30, 2010 4:20am Jan 30, 2010 4:20am
Guys,
I usually trade USD against AUD and Euro. I wanted to check how commodity prices (and AUD/CAD) effect USD. I have a few questions. I am not looking at the charts, but looking for your common sense answers :-)

In recent months, Excessive spending (stimulus) and printing, bought USD down.

Interest rate was lowest--> money went into stock market
Interest rate was lowest--> money went into gold--> Gold price has peaked --> manufacturers stocked gold

  1. Now US economy is trying to come back in shape. GDP has risen, this week NFP is going to be better than last month's. Soon the interest rate will go up. So USD will go up as happened starting from last week and accelerated after the GDP results yesterday. So I beelive in the coming months, USD will strengthen and that wil bring the commodity (gold/oil) prices down. Right?

  1. My question is here. Obama pronounced that he wants to double US exports in 2 years or so. To do that, USD should be depreciated and not aporeciated as is happening now, so that US goods are cheaper to foreign currencies.

So I have two contradicting scenarios above. Any experts here, would you throw some light on what will happen based on these scenarios above? Will USD continue to climb up as commodity price goes down?
Will US produce it's goods in Asia at cheap price and export from there, so it is cheaper to buy from a foreign country than from strong USD? That means less jobs in US--> bad for US economy.

Thanks in advance!

  • #187,170
  • Jan 30, 2010 4:52am Jan 30, 2010 4:52am
I have read many articles in the last few days To do with the dollar half of them about why this rally wont last and the other half about why its just getting started. both sides have good arguments. Being a fairly new trader in Fx Im gonna go with the trend and stay long the dollar until the current trend proves otherwise. There will be much money made when the tide turns. In my view the dollar has come too far too fast. I hope the new leverage restrictions coming in the near future holds off allow me to trade this back down..
Anyone wishing to sell wallstreet warriors season 3 please pm me
  • #187,171
  • Jan 30, 2010 5:00am Jan 30, 2010 5:00am
The fact that you actually want to go with the trend already puts you light years ahead of most of the people here who insist on constantly going against it!

Quoting Roper
I have read many articles in the last few days To do with the dollar half of them about why this rally wont last and the other half about why its just getting started. both sides have good arguments. Being a fairly new trader in Fx Im gonna go with the trend and stay long the dollar until the current trend proves otherwise. There will be much money made when the tide turns. In my view the dollar has come too far too fast. I hope the new leverage restrictions coming in the near future holds off allow me to trade this back down..
  • #187,172
  • Jan 30, 2010 6:28am Jan 30, 2010 6:28am
Quoting malcolmb14
what you say is complete crap ... really. Give up the dollar bear thing till charts say dollar is bear .. you are making yourself look like a fool .

dj is coming off a top . Think of 10700 as 14400. at 14400 where was eu ?

I will show you this one more time before i stop wasting my breath on you.

dx is in an UP trending channel has been ever since 2008 , top of channel is 92 that could be where we are going.

eu weekly .... downtrend channel , choose your fib extension 1.288 , 1.2270 or even 1.1500 all seem like viable targets for 2010 / 2011

I...

True as always
  • #187,173
  • Jan 30, 2010 6:29am Jan 30, 2010 6:29am
Quoting oseman
Hi Friends,


http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/1235/eurusdkq.jpg

According to this analysis the EUR/USD should make a correction till 1,40xx . Is anyone aggree with me?
I am in for 1.3905
  • #187,174
  • Edited 10:39pm Jan 30, 2010 6:34am | Edited 10:39pm
Eur/Usd

------------------------
CHart Update

--------------- ------------------------------- ----------------------------
on it's way to Hell in a Hand basket ? ...........
(Short Term View )
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


- now approaching 1st Targetline of 3800
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  • #187,175
  • Jan 30, 2010 7:22am Jan 30, 2010 7:22am
Quoting marketwavez
Eur/Usd

------------------------
CHart Update

--------------- ------------------------------- ----------------------------
on it's way to Hell in a Hand basket ? ...........
(Short Term View )
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


- now approaching 1st Targetline of 3800
Thanks for your analysis , one thing I just notice that price now just on the 200ma in weekly chart . will it simply ignore & let price down without chalenge ?Ofcourse ma close & so some pips down should be ok, 200 ma low is 1.3706 what gator asked for tp last night perhaps.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #187,176
  • Jan 30, 2010 7:58am Jan 30, 2010 7:58am
Fibo perspective:

Connecting the all time high and the last major low since then, we have clearly broken through the 50-fibo line last week. The next major line is at 1.3748. The last times we clearly busted through it coming from above, we got a retracement on the daily against it (see marked areas on the chart). Might be an interesting pattern to look out for, if the meltdown continues...

Sidenote: the red trendline on that chart is just a probability trendline, based on the slope of the blue line which is connecting two highs...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #187,177
  • Jan 30, 2010 8:09am Jan 30, 2010 8:09am
Quoting Spsantos
Egg Zactly! Except europe isn't pretending anything, JC Trichet is tired of saying "we need a strong dollar". Greece can be an excuse, not a reason.

Greece has nothing to do with current forex rates, everyone looks for a "reason" when some major movement or a trend develops, and believe me when I say that Greece or Spain or any other EU country debt situation has nothing to do with the current rise of the dollar.

Resuming, I'm still short, my farm will harvest near 1.35. By then I'll get out and evalutate if we go lower (1.28ish) or if we...
right....just go with the flow people.....scalping or whatever......
tooo much debate over charts.....greece....gold....and so on.....
there is no book for the corect interpretation of news and how the market will react....so.....speculate the market......
this is what we do...we speculate....on 1m 5 m ....4h.....dayli...there are moments when in one day....sell and buy orders may have equal profits depending just on the time to start the order...so......take what u can....give nothing back....so to say.....a little bit at a time....
too much 4 hour charts and dayli....take one direction....there are only 2...colect what u can......might not be time in these early months for 300-400 pips tranzaction.....market is a little bit diferent......and i must say.....100 pip in 4 days....just whatching and taking a bit of profit at a time.....form 4 pips profit to 40....no matter
good luck
IT'S ALL ,,,, Only money in the bank count
  • #187,178
  • Jan 30, 2010 8:16am Jan 30, 2010 8:16am
everybody hass they'r little perfect setup that they are waiting for to happend......
everybody want a clear fast and BIG profit....without spending time in front of their pc...mac...or laptop.....
trading is a booring bussines that needs a lot of time.....
i think most of us...try to fish without looking at the fishingrod so...they try to guess ......we are not mediums....we are just speculant of the market.....
no mather if we think the right way...market is always right....so....
stop wishing....cristmass is GONE....
i hope a made myself clear
IT'S ALL ,,,, Only money in the bank count
  • #187,179
  • Jan 30, 2010 8:34am Jan 30, 2010 8:34am
Quoting malcolmb14
what you say is complete crap ... really. Give up the dollar bear thing till charts say dollar is bear .. you are making yourself look like a fool .
And I think you are fool and your charts are crap. And I don't talking to you

anyways, just leave me alone and BS somebody else

Dollar has Rally only because everyone thinking that Market going to tank

further, we might go back to recession again + situation in EUR zone, which

would be cleared next week, then you can stick your charts in some hole.

"The euro continues to get dragged through the mud and muck of Greece's debt problems... I did a short interview with Reuters yesterday, and told them that I truly believe that this smashing the euro is getting completely overdone, and blown out of proportion... Sooner or later love is gonna get ya', Oh, really Chuck, was that necessary? Sooner or later, the European Union and the IMF are going to step in, and fix Greece's debt problem... And this will be just a bad memory..."

"I told the Reuters reporter that I didn't understand why, if the euro was getting sold because of Greece, why the dollar wasn't getting sold because of California, and California is the world's 8th largest economy... I don't think you'll find Greece anywhere near that size! I also told the reporter that I believed that traders and investors were forgetting about all the skeletons in the dollar's closet... At least for now they are!"

"John's latest report on Unemployment shows the unemployment rate to be 20%, not the 10% the Gov't claims..
There's no way on earth, the Fed Heads are THAT stupid to raise rates when unemployment is 20% in this country!
Watch the major dumbed down media drool all over themselves today, when they announce that the U.S. 4th QTR,
annualized GDP was the strongest growth in 4 years, at +4.7%...
These dolts will conveniently forget to mention that the growth was mainly Government stimulus, but don't let that get
in the way of a "feel good story"... Someone with a little intestinal fortitude should stand up and ask the question...
"How can we have 4.7% growth when 2/3rds of our economy is consumer spending, and we have 20% unemployment?"
I love to see "full employment, and 4.7% growth"... But, we don't have full employment, and in reality, we don't have 4.7% growth either!""
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #187,180
  • Jan 30, 2010 8:37am Jan 30, 2010 8:37am
Quoting TrooperCoope
Fibo perspective:

Connecting the all time high and the last major low since then, we have clearly broken through the 50-fibo line last week. The next major line is at 1.3748. The last times we clearly busted through it coming from above, we got a retracement on the daily against it (see marked areas on the chart). Might be an interesting pattern to look out for, if the meltdown continues...

Sidenote: the red trendline on that chart is just a probability trendline, based on the slope of the blue line which is connecting two highs...
Another perspective.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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