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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #2,421
  • Jan 29, 2010 6:09am Jan 29, 2010 6:09am
gees, thats 2 senior moments today, well i guess they say things come in 3's.... lol

this time the pic is attached, broker is Alpari UK

cheers

grant
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,422
  • Edited 6:23am Jan 29, 2010 6:10am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting Scullmeister
What a strange month...

1 - we have had a vulture praying on our systems, trying to sell them.

2 - The Cable has been playing up with 5 losses on Grants method and then a win to bring us back in the game. That's the beauty of Grants strategy - great R/R.

3 - Mine is down for the month, currently on -50, but with 1 trade still active. Obviously some could be up due to trading platform etc, etc. I have had a -60 before, so nothing to be concerned about at all.

Lets hope Feb is better for us. Happy pipping and have a great weekend.

have a good one Scull, looking like a slow old day out there, we may even get our profit at some point of the US session

to all in the thread lets hope for a smoother February !!! and dont get bogged down in the detail its a simple system let it reign
  • #2,423
  • Jan 29, 2010 6:11am Jan 29, 2010 6:11am
Quote
Steve Hopwoods fantastic management EA

Grant, could you point me in the direction of this EA. Sorry if it's already been posted.
  • #2,424
  • Jan 29, 2010 6:17am Jan 29, 2010 6:17am
i'm annoyed again..... lol

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=158

check out his web address in his signature.

he is a fur lined, ocean going, 5 star a*sehole..

cheers

Grant
  • #2,425
  • Jan 29, 2010 6:18am Jan 29, 2010 6:18am
Quoting mysterio
Grant, could you point me in the direction of this EA. Sorry if it's already been posted.

sure its here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=89371

cheers

Grant
  • #2,426
  • Jan 29, 2010 6:45am Jan 29, 2010 6:45am
...as they say Grant. As for them 'They reap what they sow'. Have a good weekend and thanks for your guidance.
The things which hurt, instruct! - Benjamin Franklin
  • #2,427
  • Jan 29, 2010 6:48am Jan 29, 2010 6:48am
This might be an explaination.

I was looking at the Average True Range (ATR) based upon a 14 period on the daily chart for GBP / USD. For those who are not familiar with the ATR it measures the average range for the chart that you are looking at. Effectively (for a daily chart) the likely daily difference between the high and low

Here is the ATR highs and lows over the last few months:

October------high 198 pips
------------- low 167 pips

November----high 194 pips
------------- low 174 pips

December----high 197 pips-------Up to 18th December
------------- low 179 pips

January------high 161 pips
------------- low 151 pips

The bottom line is that the average daily range has fallen by about 20%. I think that this probably demonstrates that this pair is going through a quite period and that volatility has fallen off. As a result we are not getting the moves we were hence the lack of winners

Incidently the last time that the ATR was at this level was August 2008 !!
  • #2,428
  • Jan 29, 2010 7:40am Jan 29, 2010 7:40am
grant' s breakout

trade been knocked out by a pip aahhhh and the price has now dropped
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #2,429
  • Jan 29, 2010 7:50am Jan 29, 2010 7:50am
any chance we can get a copy of that MA?

Quoting matlobien
Couldn't have said it better. Thanks

Just to not confuse our friend here; I have a MA in color on my chart which changes color as the price goes up or down, but it belongs to a friend of mine.

Sorry for the confusion.

  • #2,430
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:01am Jan 29, 2010 8:01am
so grants method strictly following the rules would have been a stoploss today right?

Grant, or anyone, have you tried this method with like a 30 pip stoploss and 30 pip take profit or something? maybe 25 pip stoploss? seems there are many trades that end up breakeven or as losses because of the tight stop. its usually the added pips from the buffer it seems that end up making the stop too tight.
  • #2,431
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:04am Jan 29, 2010 8:04am
My trade results for Jan using Scull's original 5 to 7:30 breakout.

Trades 20
Wins 11
Pips -30

Using the 85 EMA for direction

Trades 9
Wins 6
Pips 30
  • #2,432
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:09am Jan 29, 2010 8:09am
No trade today on Grants as it didn't activate before 0900hrs
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #2,433
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:10am Jan 29, 2010 8:10am
Quoting Scullmeister
No trade today on Grants as it didn't activate before 0900hrs
Scull SL hit today?
The Road appears under the steps of walking men...
  • #2,434
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:12am Jan 29, 2010 8:12am
Quoting robl45
any chance we can get a copy of that MA?
I will ask him.

  • #2,435
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:19am Jan 29, 2010 8:19am
Quoting robl45
so grants method strictly following the rules would have been a stoploss today right?

Grant, or anyone, have you tried this method with like a 30 pip stoploss and 30 pip take profit or something? maybe 25 pip stoploss? seems there are many trades that end up breakeven or as losses because of the tight stop. its usually the added pips from the buffer it seems that end up making the stop too tight.
hey rob,

i went through a lot of differing combinations of SL TP and BE and the combination i have now was by no means the best but not the worst either and i went through a lot...

BUT thats what i use, you can of course tweak the method more to suit your style of trading...

todays trade was cancelled as it had not triggered by 0830 UK time...

hope that helps

cheers

Grant
  • #2,436
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:42am Jan 29, 2010 8:42am
okay, I read through the doc too, maybe I'm just so excited by this method that Im missing things. I knew there was a time constraint, but the whole GMT thing confuses things. See here at work, I use tradestation and its on EST time, at home I have metatrader and its on GMT time. so no trade today. looking at the backtests, the pips look excellent. was those results in the excel file following the system strictly mechanically?

also, has it been tested on any other pairs or timeframes?

Quoting grant18265
hey rob,

i went through a lot of differing combinations of SL TP and BE and the combination i have now was by no means the best but not the worst either and i went through a lot...

BUT thats what i use, you can of course tweak the method more to suit your style of trading...

todays trade was cancelled as it had not triggered by 0830 UK time...

hope that helps

cheers

Grant
  • #2,437
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:45am Jan 29, 2010 8:45am
I requested my refund through plimus today of the sureforex system, bought it because I saw it on donnaforex newsletter. didn't know about this place.

my only real regret for getting a refund is that he said he was working on a totally automated ea for this.

anyone know where I could get a totally automated ea or where I could pay to have someone code one? 1am is not a good time for me on the east coast to be placing trades.
  • #2,438
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:05am Jan 29, 2010 9:05am
Hi, been following this thread and 7-9 big dog, read the whole of this one and am a big fan of it. Thanks to Scullmeister and Grant for sharing their method despite recent abuse. Thanks to Indyfx and all the regulars here that help so much and inspire us newbies to trade fx.

I'd like to contribute with testing if that's ok. Attached is my backtest of January of both Grant's and Scullmeister's methods. The results in Capital Spreads charts are a bit more upbeat than Scull's and Grant's, particularly in the case of Scull's the SL40 version. Please, if you have a minute, let me know if I made any mistake in the testing, as I used 8 pips buffer for Scull's method and 5 for Grant (as the spreads are handled differently in the spreadbetting firm I'm with - capital spreads. They have 2 pip spread, buy 1 pip above chart price and sell 1 pip below).

Note that in this test I didn't get results for the 4th of Jan when it needed the 85EMA filter because the charts weren't showing it. My backtesting posibilities are limited, as I haven't got access to older 15M charts. I'm trying to sort out this issue: Metatrader only works with PC and I got a mac (trying to find a free PC simulator, no luck yet).

Also IndyFX, I'm very interested in your optimized version of Grant's method and want to help with the backtest of that too, once I get this MAC-PC problem sorted. I'm also interested in your ATR analysis and was wondering if there's anyway of tweaking parameters / methods to follow previous months ATR. I know it's kind of a lagging methodology but can't think of anything else to make months like these better. Maybe lower exposure, or TPs, as weekly ATR changes, dunno...

Anyway, again thanks to everyone and I wish you all many pips.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Bcktest Scull+Grant Jan2010.xls   16 KB | 412 downloads
  • #2,439
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:08am Jan 29, 2010 9:08am
Quoting robl45
okay, I read through the doc too, maybe I'm just so excited by this method that Im missing things. I knew there was a time constraint, but the whole GMT thing confuses things. See here at work, I use tradestation and its on EST time, at home I have metatrader and its on GMT time. so no trade today. looking at the backtests, the pips look excellent. was those results in the excel file following the system strictly mechanically?

also, has it been tested on any other pairs or timeframes?
Rob

the backtest was done with an EA and then manually checked by me, so they are as good as i could get...

as for an EA, check out RBI and Ronald Raygun on the big dog thread as i think they have programmed box methods.

attached is the EA by RBI i used for the backtesting but please demo it first so you know it works ok as i have never used it for forward testing...

cheers

Grant
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Custom_M15_Box&EMA_Breakout.mq4   6 KB | 616 downloads
  • #2,440
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:20am Jan 29, 2010 9:20am
Quoting sebasound
Hi, been following this thread and 7-9 big dog, read the whole of this one and am a big fan of it. Thanks to Scullmeister and Grant for sharing their method despite recent abuse. Thanks to Indyfx and all the regulars here that help so much and inspire us newbies to trade fx.

I'd like to contribute with testing if that's ok. Attached is my backtest of January of both Grant's and Scullmeister's methods. The results in Capital Spreads charts are a bit more upbeat than Scull's and Grant's, particularly in the case of Scull's the SL40 version. Please,...
HI sebasound,

attached are my live results for Jan.

cheers

grant
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Breakout System 2010 Comparison.xls   30 KB | 454 downloads
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