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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,701
  • Jan 28, 2010 5:18am Jan 28, 2010 5:18am
Quoting EntropyLad
I am not sure i want to enter any trade in USD or JPY until they get this bernanke nomination nonsense out of the way.
Definitely worth keeping an eye on, but there's a couple hours to go until then, so this could break well before the news starts to take effect. If it does trigger and I'm in, I'll cover my position before the news breaks.
  • #2,702
  • Jan 28, 2010 5:42am Jan 28, 2010 5:42am
Quoting Pipalicious
Aheup folks,

Anybody got an opinion on eur/jpy 4h chart as setup with entries on 1h chart?

Looks nice imho.

In 1h chart the tl has been broke. now waiting for a pullback within the next hour or so with target being around 125.30ish....

cheers

pip
Hi Pipalicious,

Yep, the EURJPY is also a good looking setup, very similar to CHFJPY.
Descending trendline
50% fib retracement
Previous swing low
Dynamic area

Also, if you zoom right out on the chart and mark that previous swing low, you'll see that the 127.00 level has proved massive support in the past. We've just retested that level from below, so it is now acting as resistance. Always important to remember to look at the bigger picture just to see where price is located overall.

Best,
Chris
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 4h 280110.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 4h 280110a.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #2,703
  • Jan 28, 2010 5:47am Jan 28, 2010 5:47am
Quoting EntropyLad
Thanks,....but chrisP was the one that first brought it up. So, he deserves the credit for alerting us to short EUR/NZD, daily/h4.

Anyways, already closed out half at +110 pips and moved the rest to BE + 1. Entry was at 1.9795. I can see possible S/R at 1.9650 and 1.9600 area. Final target = 1.9460(which is +335 pips away).
If it does break the current support then i agree with the next level you've identified at 1.9450-1.9500.
  • #2,704
  • Jan 28, 2010 9:51am Jan 28, 2010 9:51am
Quoting Chris P
Definitely worth keeping an eye on, but there's a couple hours to go until then, so this could break well before the news starts to take effect. If it does trigger and I'm in, I'll cover my position before the news breaks.
also - bar the US shake of the pair, "Intraday Market Thought: JPY is the biggest loser due to escalatingJPY is the biggest loser due to escalating speculation that North Korea will test-launch more missiles on the west coast. FX markets immediately selloff the Japanese currency on any signs of skirmishes involving the Koreas. "
  • #2,705
  • Jan 28, 2010 9:57am Jan 28, 2010 9:57am
Quoting Paulette
also - bar the US shake of the pair, "Intraday Market Thought: JPY is the biggest loser due to escalatingJPY is the biggest loser due to escalating speculation that North Korea will test-launch more missiles on the west coast. FX markets immediately selloff the Japanese currency on any signs of skirmishes involving the Koreas. "
All I can say is I hope the E/J keeps moving down because I am short in there right now, and only up 38 pips, but I am going to let it go and see if I can get some distance between me and my entry and then move to BE and half out of it and let the rest run and see where I end up.

I am hoping a for a pretty large move but anything can happen.

--NM
  • #2,706
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:07am Jan 28, 2010 10:07am
Quoting NightMoves
All I can say is I hope the E/J keeps moving down because I am short in there right now, and only up 38 pips, but I am going to let it go and see if I can get some distance between me and my entry and then move to BE and half out of it and let the rest run and see where I end up.

I am hoping a for a pretty large move but anything can happen.

--NM
I banked out 60 pips so I am good now, so now it can do what it wants now, so all is good.

--NM
  • #2,707
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:11am Jan 28, 2010 10:11am
sorry, had something else to do today. Now back to trading desk and saw one of my trades having triggered.
Chf/jpy h1 and m15 attached, was again a touch trade, that's why I just put an order in at the level you see, saw on the h1 that this is strong resistance, and focused in on m15 to determine where the highs bounced off with stop behind the green area. first target hit pretty fast, now waiting for second target to get hit.
Are there any other setups around right now?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy h1 28.1.2010.gif Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy m15 28.1.2010.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #2,708
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:13am Jan 28, 2010 10:13am
Quoting Custos
sorry, had something else to do today. Now back to trading desk and saw one of my trades having triggered.
Chf/jpy h1 and m15 attached, was again a touch trade, that's why I just put an order in at the level you see, saw on the h1 that this is strong resistance, and focused in on m15 to determine where the highs bounced off with stop behind the green area. first target hit pretty fast, now waiting for second target to get hit.
Are there any other setups around right now?
Excellent Job!!!!
  • #2,709
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:19am Jan 28, 2010 10:19am
Quoting Custos
sorry, had something else to do today. Now back to trading desk and saw one of my trades having triggered.
Chf/jpy h1 and m15 attached, was again a touch trade, that's why I just put an order in at the level you see, saw on the h1 that this is strong resistance, and focused in on m15 to determine where the highs bounced off with stop behind the green area. first target hit pretty fast, now waiting for second target to get hit.
Are there any other setups around right now?
I am looking through the charts now to see if there are any good setups approaching, I had company this morning so I have not looked at anything yet. I took the the E/J trade after my alarm went off, but I got in a little late but still got in for a few pips.

--NM
  • #2,710
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:24am Jan 28, 2010 10:24am
Hi NM & Co,

being in the process of untraining / retraining, my faith was tested today:

usd/chf +40 (asian session)

usd/jpy +10 (trade was setup @ 21:00 GMT, before being warned about jpy weakness, or making the observation that jpy was weak all over. Now just thankful to be out of it)

eur/usd +30
aud/usd +25

(too much exposure to usd - hindsight again)

Thanks for all your supporting comments and information in this thread, it is a tremendous help.

Still in demo, hoping to go live in 2 weeks, extra conservative. Possibly over-trading at the moment, but trying to get as many moves as possible.

Much much appreciated
  • #2,711
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:26am Jan 28, 2010 10:26am
Quoting NightMoves
I am looking through the charts now to see if there are any good setups approaching, I had company this morning so I have not looked at anything yet. I took the the E/J trade after my alarm went off, but I got in a little late but still got in for a few pips.

--NM
also good job

yeah, I also don't see that much going on right now. Amazing though yesterday the E/U didn't move at all, whereas the gbp/jpy spiked up like if there would be no tomorrow, even though it was news for usd not at all related to gbp/jpy.
The market sometimes is very irrational, or at least I am too dumb to understand it.
  • #2,712
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:44am Jan 28, 2010 10:44am
Quoting Paulette
Hi NM & Co,

being in the process of untraining / retraining, my faith was tested today:

usd/chf +40 (asian session)

usd/jpy +10 (trade was setup @ 21:00 GMT, before being warned about jpy weakness, or making the observation that jpy was weak all over....
good job, and good that you enjoy the thread.

Yeah, just stay very conservative, then it's for sure gonna work out fine. And risk max 3% of your account, in the beginning I would recommend to only risk max 1% of your account until you get really comfortable with the method.

best regards.
  • #2,713
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:47am Jan 28, 2010 10:47am
Quoting Custos
also good job

yeah, I also don't see that much going on right now. Amazing though yesterday the E/U didn't move at all, whereas the gbp/jpy spiked up like if there would be no tomorrow, even though it was news for usd not at all related to gbp/jpy.
The market sometimes is very irrational, or at least I am too dumb to understand it.
The second half seems to be holding steady at 50 pips I will let this run until tomorrow if it does not get much betyond this area by the close of tomorrow but hopefully it will continue on down, it does look like I missed a couple of good trades today, but there will be more.

--NM
  • #2,714
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:49am Jan 28, 2010 10:49am
Quoting Paulette
Hi NM & Co,

being in the process of untraining / retraining, my faith was tested today:

usd/chf +40 (asian session)

usd/jpy +10 (trade was setup @ 21:00 GMT, before being warned about jpy weakness, or making the observation that jpy was weak all over. Now just thankful to be out of it)

eur/usd +30
aud/usd +25

(too much exposure to usd - hindsight again)

Thanks for all your supporting comments and information in this thread, it is a tremendous help.

Still in demo, hoping to go live in 2 weeks, extra conservative. Possibly over-trading...
Paulette,
This market will always test your faith, and the problem with that is sometimes it wins...LOL However it sounds like your catching on to this method and once you get used to trading this way it becomes easier, however it will still test your faith...LOL

--NM
  • #2,715
  • Jan 28, 2010 11:07am Jan 28, 2010 11:07am
The USDCAD is testing the daily channel top again, I thought it might continue its range bound ways but maybe this time its headed north.

--NM
  • #2,716
  • Jan 28, 2010 11:35am Jan 28, 2010 11:35am
My entry on EURJPY was based upon the 15min pin bar we got on the pullback to retest the descending trendline, as marked on the chart. Price moved nicely into progit and I was able to get my stop to BE well before the news hit.

Did we really need any more convincing that this thing was headed south?

I've been tied up in meetings all afternoon, but nice to come out and see that the target was hit. Half off and the rest let to run to 122.55
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 15min 280110.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #2,717
  • Jan 28, 2010 12:06pm Jan 28, 2010 12:06pm
Isnt this just bloody awesome?

That we all made pips today. I think hector deserves a royalty, i swear. 1% pippettes for every 10pips gained from his method.

I didnt dive into the JPYs like the rest of you lads,....I made my pips in the eur/nzd and the gbp/chf(l.o.b trade)

CUSTOS, i have noticed this since forever, major news for the USD, 90% of the time it will move the GBP/JPY. The best explanation i have heard is that for you to get GBP/JPY--the way to synthesize GBP/JPY-- you will need to trade GBP/USD x USD/JPY = GBP/JPY. The USD cancels each other out. Since that is how you synthesize, GBP/JPY, and that synthesis is USD intensive, the USD news that affects GBP/USD will affect the GBP/jpy, since GBP/JPY generally have exaggerated moves to begin with anyways.

The explanation also claims that is the reason why some of the other JPYs (e.g. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY) are affected by USD news to one degree or the other. That they are all derived from major pairs that do not use the USD as their base currency(that is, they use the USD as their pricing currency) = (AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD). And when you cross that against the usd/jpy and cancel out the USD = you get their JPYs e.g. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY. As such, the USD news will MOST LIKELY trigger some reaction in them when their parent currencies(aud/usd, nzd/usd, eur/usd, gbp/usd) are moved by those USD news.

That is the best i know about that. Anybody care to share their thoughts on this?
  • #2,718
  • Jan 28, 2010 12:18pm Jan 28, 2010 12:18pm
ChrisP,

I am curious, what is the rationale behind waiting for the pullback towards the blue line to initiate entry? s/r? rn? lower time frame price action?


Quoting Chris P
Hi EntropyLad,

My chart below shows my trade, which I've now closed. I'll walk you through it so you can see what I did.

Price broke the 1,2,3 formation at the red rectangle. Rather than enter here, I waited for a pullback towards the trendline and entered at 1.9863 (blue line) with my stop placed above the high of the 3 in the formation (red line). Take profit was placed exactly at 1.9680 (blue line). If you zoom right out on the 4h chart you'll see why this is a significant area. When price gets here we know something is going to happen. Whether...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1264676138
  • #2,719
  • Jan 28, 2010 12:24pm Jan 28, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Isnt this just bloody awesome?

That we all made pips today. I think hector deserves a royalty, i swear. 1% pippettes for every 10pips gained from his method.

I didnt dive into the JPYs like the rest of you lads,....I made my pips in the eur/nzd and the gbp/chf(l.o.b trade)

CUSTOS, i have noticed this since forever, major news for the USD, 90% of the time it will move the GBP/JPY. The best explanation i have heard is that for you to get GBP/JPY--the way to synthesize GBP/JPY-- you will need to trade GBP/USD x USD/JPY = GBP/JPY. The USD...
Pretty much spot on. The only thing I'd add is that the JPY pairs do tend to be highly correlated with each other, also as a derivative of USD involvement. It's always worth looking at what levels other JPY pairs are at before taking a trade.

As these pairs are effected by USD news, it follws that anything which can effect the Dow Jones will also have an impact on these markets. The Dow was recently at a MAJOR resistance area - it's clear on the monthly chart! This meant that there was a high probability that we could get a reversal off this area, consequently meaning that the JPY pairs all follow suit - and look what's happened!

I know some people have quoted the news here before. I look out for the announcements, but really the charts tell you the full picture of what's going to happen.

Best,
Chris
  • #2,720
  • Jan 28, 2010 12:36pm Jan 28, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting Chris P
Pretty much spot on. The only thing I'd add is that the JPY pairs do tend to be highly correlated with each other, also as a derivative of USD involvement. It's always worth looking at what levels other JPY pairs are at before taking a trade.

As these pairs are effected by USD news, it follws that anything which can effect the Dow Jones will also have an impact on these markets. The Dow was recently at a MAJOR resistance area - it's clear on the monthly chart! This meant that there was a high probability that we could get a reversal off this area,...

I agree with that statement, the best thing you can do if your trading short term is stay out of the markets at news time, wait for the smoke to clear, and reassess after everything is clear, no one which way the market is going to go at any given time, especially during news announcements, yes one can put the probabilites on your side to make a good trade, but during news events those probabilities are just not the same.

--NM
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