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  • #2,681
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:59pm Jan 27, 2010 8:59pm
Here is another setup on the 4 hour TF of the E/J pair, not sure what to make of the formation at the point of the start of the retrace.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Possible setup.png Size: 70 KB
  • #2,682
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:20pm Jan 27, 2010 10:20pm
Hmmm...

CAD/JPY seems to want to climb out of its recent range rather than continuing down. Thoughts? I was watching for a downside move too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY Climb.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #2,683
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:31pm Jan 27, 2010 10:31pm
It's not the first odd pattern in that E/J pair. Something similar not too long ago. Could it be simple uncertainty?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ambiguous EJ Pattern.png Size: 77 KB
  • #2,684
  • Jan 27, 2010 11:59pm Jan 27, 2010 11:59pm
Quoting PippyD
It's not the first odd pattern in that E/J pair. Something similar not too long ago. Could it be simple uncertainty?
EJ daily shows a pinbar on 27th (if I am not mistaken), on 4hr it is trying to reach the dynamic area of resistance...

If confluence (factor of 4 or higher as per NM rules page1) then possibly a trade;
  • #2,685
  • Jan 28, 2010 2:29am Jan 28, 2010 2:29am
Quoting Paulette
EJ daily shows a pinbar on 27th (if I am not mistaken), on 4hr it is trying to reach the dynamic area of resistance...

If confluence (factor of 4 or higher as per NM rules page1) then possibly a trade;
0815 GMT: price has retraced into the 30-50 window on H4 at the RN of 127.00, (the support line of a 7-month range), and in the 38-61 Fib window. The H4 trend line is in there as well. I'm not too hot on counter-trend lines, but is there one from the low on H1 at 125.66 (1600 GMT Tues)?
Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #2,686
  • Jan 28, 2010 2:42am Jan 28, 2010 2:42am
Quoting Kanderpro
0815 GMT: price has retraced into the 30-50 window on H4 at the RN of 127.00, (the support line of a 7-month range), and in the 38-61 Fib window. The H4 trend line is in there as well. I'm not too hot on counter-trend lines, but is there one from the low on H1 at 125.66 (1600 GMT Tues)?
Kan
Agree, thanks for pointing it out. confluence of fib 38, counter trend line, rn

Also have triangle drawn, flat bottom, top running along highs of 21, 26, 28 jan 10.

Any thoughts?
  • #2,687
  • Jan 28, 2010 2:53am Jan 28, 2010 2:53am
Quoting Paulette
Agree, thanks for pointing it out. confluence of fib 38, counter trend line, rn

Also have triangle drawn, flat bottom, top running along highs of 21, 26, 28 jan 10.

Any thoughts?
Hi Paulette,
At what level is the flat bottom of your triangle?
Also, I have my Fibs drawn from the high of 128.34.
Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #2,688
  • Jan 28, 2010 3:01am Jan 28, 2010 3:01am
PIPPYd,

THAT may result in a slanted trendline collapse trade. For all the JPY's in fact.

Quoting PippyD
Hmmm...

CAD/JPY seems to want to climb out of its recent range rather than continuing down. Thoughts? I was watching for a downside move too.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264652353
  • #2,689
  • Jan 28, 2010 3:01am Jan 28, 2010 3:01am
PIPPYd,

THAT may result in a slanted trendline collapse trade. For all the JPY's in fact.

Quoting PippyD
Hmmm...

CAD/JPY seems to want to climb out of its recent range rather than continuing down. Thoughts? I was watching for a downside move too.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264652353
  • #2,690
  • Jan 28, 2010 3:03am Jan 28, 2010 3:03am
views on trending pairs please

TF 4/1:
touching dynamic Resistance

aud/usd
eur/usd - beyond RN possibly
eur/gbp

usd/jpy
chf/jpy
gbp/jpy - looks ready to test 100, not good
cad/jpy - still potential setup as per NM chart
eur/jpy - already discussed

Suppose safe assumption would be to say that jpy is not too strong at the moment

TF 1/15:
usd/chf

TF 30/5:
eur/cad
gbu/usd - if she can hold above 270...

Any thoughts to share?
  • #2,691
  • Jan 28, 2010 3:09am Jan 28, 2010 3:09am
HEY, chris P, did you eventually make the entry a couple of hours after the NZD news rate was released? Mine was 1.9795.

Once again, thanks for alerting me to this trade.


Quoting Chris P
Possible setup forming for tomorrow...

EURNZD swinging on the daily.

Confluence factors:
38.2% fib from large move down
61.8% fib from recent swing
2.0000 BIG round number
Area between 30 and 50 sma

4H chart:
1-2-3 formation
Break of retracement trendline
Wait for confirmation of BPC...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1264596355
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1264596355
  • #2,692
  • Jan 28, 2010 3:24am Jan 28, 2010 3:24am
Quoting EntropyLad
HEY, chris P, did you eventually make the entry a couple of hours after the NZD news rate was released? Mine was 1.9795.

Once again, thanks for alerting me to this trade.

Well done, thanx for clarity in confluence factors...
  • #2,693
  • Jan 28, 2010 4:56am Jan 28, 2010 4:56am
Quoting EntropyLad
HEY, chris P, did you eventually make the entry a couple of hours after the NZD news rate was released? Mine was 1.9795.

Once again, thanks for alerting me to this trade.
Hi EntropyLad,

My chart below shows my trade, which I've now closed. I'll walk you through it so you can see what I did.

Price broke the 1,2,3 formation at the red rectangle. Rather than enter here, I waited for a pullback towards the trendline and entered at 1.9863 (blue line) with my stop placed above the high of the 3 in the formation (red line). Take profit was placed exactly at 1.9680 (blue line). If you zoom right out on the 4h chart you'll see why this is a significant area. When price gets here we know something is going to happen. Whether it's stall, reverse or continue, we need to do something to manage our trade. This is where it's down to each individual. On this trade I decided to flat take profit which returned a 1.5R. I'll keep watching this area to see if price breaks below and comes back to retest, but for now I'm out.

Best,
Chris
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd 4h 280110.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #2,694
  • Jan 28, 2010 4:58am Jan 28, 2010 4:58am
Quoting Paulette
Well done, thanx for clarity in confluence factors...

Thanks,....but chrisP was the one that first brought it up. So, he deserves the credit for alerting us to short EUR/NZD, daily/h4.

Anyways, already closed out half at +110 pips and moved the rest to BE + 1. Entry was at 1.9795. I can see possible S/R at 1.9650 and 1.9600 area. Final target = 1.9460(which is +335 pips away).
  • #2,695
  • Jan 28, 2010 4:59am Jan 28, 2010 4:59am
Quoting A 5
Chris/Custos
am stilll new and half way thro hector's course.
had my first real entry this morning on AUDUSD and exit my trade like what Chris had mention. obviously i was happy to clock profits on my first try.
more so when Chris reaffirm taht it was a good setup.
Custos, i will certainly heed your opinion that its a tad aggressive on this setup, will tread carefully.
Have been following this thread for more than a week, thanks to NM for initiating this too.
will certainly be back
cheers
Hi A5,

Sorry, missed this yesterday.

Congrats on your first real entry

Keep it simple, look for confluence first before looking for setups. The best ones will jump out at you. One of the best ways to learn is to post charts and ask questions. There's never a dumb question.

Best,
Chris
  • #2,696
  • Jan 28, 2010 5:05am Jan 28, 2010 5:05am
CHFJPY is the best looking setup for today IMO.
  • #2,697
  • Jan 28, 2010 5:07am Jan 28, 2010 5:07am
Aheup folks,

Anybody got an opinion on eur/jpy 4h chart as setup with entries on 1h chart?

Looks nice imho.

In 1h chart the tl has been broke. now waiting for a pullback within the next hour or so with target being around 125.30ish....

cheers

pip
  • #2,698
  • Jan 28, 2010 5:09am Jan 28, 2010 5:09am
Quoting Chris P
CHFJPY is the best looking setup for today IMO.
I am not sure i want to enter any trade in USD or JPY until they get this bernanke nomination nonsense out of the way.
  • #2,699
  • Jan 28, 2010 5:11am Jan 28, 2010 5:11am
Quoting Pipalicious
Aheup folks,

Anybody got an opinion on eur/jpy 4h chart as setup with entries on 1h chart?

Looks nice imho.

In 1h chart the tl has been broke. now waiting for a pullback within the next hour or so with target being around 125.30ish....

cheers

pip
Oh, absolutely.

But then...bernanke. I will just leave all the USD and JPY for now...it is only today...then it is over...i already did a EUR/NZD and GBP/CHF(LOB trade already
  • #2,700
  • Jan 28, 2010 5:14am Jan 28, 2010 5:14am
4h swing into Dynamic Area
Trendline
50% fib retrace

Nice retracement trendline, broken
Just waiting for retest and then continuation...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy 4h 280110.gif Size: 21 KB
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