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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,621
  • Jan 27, 2010 7:49am Jan 27, 2010 7:49am
Quoting Chris P
I agree Custos. Normally I wouldn't be taking any positions when interest rate announcements are due, same with NFP etc. However, the fact that there was so much confluence going on made this a no brainer for me. It was also very early in the trading day, at least 12 hours away from the rate decision.

I'll be enjoying watching from the sidelines for the rest of the day

Best,
Chris
Chris/Custos
am stilll new and half way thro hector's course.
had my first real entry this morning on AUDUSD and exit my trade like what Chris had mention. obviously i was happy to clock profits on my first try.
more so when Chris reaffirm taht it was a good setup.
Custos, i will certainly heed your opinion that its a tad aggressive on this setup, will tread carefully.
Have been following this thread for more than a week, thanks to NM for initiating this too.
will certainly be back
cheers
  • #2,622
  • Jan 27, 2010 7:51am Jan 27, 2010 7:51am
Markets are kind of quite again arent they? I think they will be untill all the news hits the wires, and we find out the fate of uncle Ben.

--NM
  • #2,623
  • Jan 27, 2010 7:55am Jan 27, 2010 7:55am
Quoting Chris P
Nice trade Custos!

Great minds

Again, I don't want to clutter this thread with other strategies, but will post this one setup as I saw it. (for lower timeframe stuff see here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163972)

I was watching the same area, but with a trendline confluence as well. Once we've got an area to watch, I'm not happy with just taking a touch trade. I need more tip offs to tell me that price is going where I anticipate, that's just my approach. In this case there a lovely 5min pin bar, with divergence...
yeah, I like pin-bars too, they can be quite powerful in terms of showing turning points. By the way, my r:r on this gbp/jpy trade is 1:8, if it hits all my targets. haha, now since it's a risk-free trade I just hope it will pay out!!
  • #2,624
  • Jan 27, 2010 7:57am Jan 27, 2010 7:57am
Quoting NightMoves
Markets are kind of quite again arent they? I think they will be untill all the news hits the wires, and we find out the fate of uncle Ben.

--NM
yeah, I also think so. not much going on.
  • #2,625
  • Jan 27, 2010 7:58am Jan 27, 2010 7:58am
Quoting mana_
hi, e/u 4h format a down triangle, wait for bpc on 1h
I have been waiting for that bpc around the 4030 level for a couple of days now. It almost gets there and then stops, there is pressure to make it happen, its just a matter of time I think.

--NM
  • #2,626
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:05am Jan 27, 2010 8:05am
Quoting Custos
Hi, attached are two charts, the gbp/jpy h1 and m15.
This is a typical touch trade. By the way, if you are getting sick of my touch trades, just tell me, then I only post hector style trades.

The h1 shows more or less the general S/R level I want a bounce off. Now a zoom into the m15 to find the exact point of my bounce. And here we have such big confluence 50 fib very close, a round number, couldn't get any better than that, entry would have been at 145.5, stop at 145.62. I know, incredibly small stop but, that's a hit or miss kind of trade....
Custos,
The touch trades are fine to post, when I created this thread it was about trading the trend not necessarily about the method I use, I was aksed what my method was, and thats the reason I posted my method, but in reality the thread is really about trading the trends and exploiting as many as we can no matter what method is being used to accomplish that.

--NM
  • #2,627
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:09am Jan 27, 2010 8:09am
Quoting NightMoves
Custos,
The touch trades are fine to post, when I created this thread it was about trading the trend not necessarily about the method I use, I was aksed what my method was, and thats the reason I posted my method, but in reality the thread is really about trading the trends and exploiting as many as we can no matter what method is being used to accomplish that.

--NM
okay, thanks, then I keep posting some setups!
  • #2,628
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:15am Jan 27, 2010 8:15am
Looks like we might also be getting close to a break out on the E/U pair that I hope gives a decent bpc.

--NM
  • #2,629
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:16am Jan 27, 2010 8:16am
[quote=Custos;3405945]

Custos interested in your trigger for this. If I follow correctly the set-up is down to experience / gut feel in that you identified an R/N, 50% FIB retracement, previous resistance and based on your experience had a sense that it would reverse at 145.5 level and continue with the H1 SMA down trend?

In this case the trigger was that price got to this level and you took the trade short. So unlike the "classic Hector trades" there wasn't a systematic trigger other than it hit that price point so you went short expecting that it would reverse. Is that a fair reflection of the logic?

Thanks
  • #2,630
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:18am Jan 27, 2010 8:18am
And of course that E/U setup would have to happen so close to news time...

--NM
  • #2,631
  • Edited 8:24am Jan 27, 2010 8:22am | Edited 8:24am
Quoting NightMoves
Looks like we might also be getting close to a break out on the E/U pair that I hope gives a decent bpc.

--NM
Night moves if that gave you the bpc with the news due at 10am ET would you take the trade?

Thanks


I see you answered my question before I had even asked it, let alone it getting through moderation!
  • #2,632
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:26am Jan 27, 2010 8:26am
Looks like of the break out happens we will have to see where the bpc starts and ends, right now it looks like it could be pretty close to the RN?

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 30 pips away.png Size: 81 KB
  • #2,633
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:26am Jan 27, 2010 8:26am
Quoting NightMoves
And of course that E/U setup would have to happen so close to news time...

--NM
and aud/usd
  • #2,634
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:34am Jan 27, 2010 8:34am
Quoting NightMoves
Looks like of the break out happens we will have to see where the bpc starts and ends, right now it looks like it could be pretty close to the RN?

--NM
In a case like this, what would be the ideal entry. 4hr trending, 1hr - It has passed 38fib, with dynamic resistance, support line 50 pips prior to entering close to 000.

BPC & 000 looks like occuring at same area with heavy support @ 14028 / day low and 14008 to break...

Entry only below, if it goes below? Your input please NM
  • #2,635
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:35am Jan 27, 2010 8:35am
Quoting NightMoves
And of course that E/U setup would have to happen so close to news time...

--NM
NM ignoring the issue of news being imminent. Are you working off the H1 as the set up and M15 as the trigger?

If you don't mind a couple of questions

1) on the H1 the SMAs look like thay have only just got aligned so would it be fair to say that you take a reasonably aggressive approach and are happy to get into the trend fairly early?

2) On the M15 trigger as I see it the pull back started in the 15min slot from 9am ET and so the entry would be below the low of that ie 1.0429 ( assuming the pullback doesn't go so far that it invalidates)

Thanks


Another one to ignore as NM's subsequent comments answered these!!!
  • #2,636
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:35am Jan 27, 2010 8:35am
Quoting NightMoves
Looks like of the break out happens we will have to see where the bpc starts and ends, right now it looks like it could be pretty close to the RN?

--NM
I think the only bpc you can find with red marked news is on the one minute chart. It probably just takes off when the numbers are unexpected, leaving everybody behind. I am gonna stay out of this one, too dangerous for my taste.
  • #2,637
  • Edited 8:46am Jan 27, 2010 8:40am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting Paulette
In a case like this, what would be the ideal entry. 4hr trending, 1hr - It has passed 38fib, with dynamic resistance, support line 50 pips prior to entering close to 000.

BPC & 000 looks like occuring at same area with heavy support @ 14028 / day low and 14008 to break...

Entry only below, if it goes below? Your input please NM
IMO that round numbers being that close I would expect to see a bounce off that RN and that same RN is very close to minor support on the weekly chart once we clear that area I think we are good to around 1.3738 before we see another major bounce. I am personally going to wait and see if that RN gives way before I get into the trade.

--NM
  • #2,638
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:44am Jan 27, 2010 8:44am
Quoting Custos
I think the only bpc you can find with red marked news is on the one minute chart. It probably just takes off when the numbers are unexpected, leaving everybody behind. I am gonna stay out of this one, too dangerous for my taste.
I am not going to trade it until after the dust settles and I think there is going to be a lot of dust before the day is out, but if get below that 1.400 price I think we are clear sailing, so we will have to wait and see where we finally land after the storm blows over.

--NM
  • #2,639
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:54am Jan 27, 2010 8:54am
Quoting Custos
hm, gbp/usd is really just in a range, look at your daily chart, it's right sitting at a support trend-line. Furthermore, for an LOB it's always better to have good intra-week trend before (each day).
eur/jpy, I would wait for a retrace, already moved too far for my taste,
for cad/jpy I would say it's the wrong session, you should look into that pair either in asian or ny session.
& chf/jpy doesn't really have a very good triangle pattern, those patterns really must be very very obvious. I myself also don't see much good looking things in the charts....
thanks for your input, I stayed out as nothing seemed safe. Just took +20 this morning on aud/usd, then taken out...

Still learning
  • #2,640
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:56am Jan 27, 2010 8:56am
This kind of news coming out toay can really turn this market violent with a lot of panic buying and selling, and it is just filled with emotional traders not really knowing what is going to happen, and everyone gasping for for breath as the market gets crazy, just really not a good time to enter a trade and get caught up in that mess.

Then I have seen this kind of news do nothing to market except make it jump a little, but with uncle Bens fate and all the rest of news I think we will see price scrambling all over the place as stops are triggered and TP's are hit and it is just really dangerous to jump on the tracks right now imo.

--NM
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