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  • #185,781
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:19pm Jan 27, 2010 4:19pm
Quoting mikekneip
Don't double up, unless you can take a drawdown of at least 100 pips without risking too much of your account. I think there is a realistic danger that asia will go for the stops below 1.3980
By saying, this shows that you still do not have the confidence you need to enter a trade, set the TP and SL and let it go....this will only come from consistency that will create that ability for you to learn to trust your own decision making abilities. It's the lingering doubts from too many bad trades that still creates the FEAR factor. This can only be overcome over time by learning to stay away from the bad trades and training your mind's eye to spot the good trades....with patience and discipline.
  • #185,782
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:20pm Jan 27, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting nawafasad1
kambooj this was a fake breakout . bears are done they r history go long on the test of the lows of today dont sell bottom wave5 is finished in an ending diagonal shape

This is not a fake breakout, it is a slow breakout because of many reasons in the fundamental area, but basically the motion is not finished for 2 reasons as far as my own technical analysis is concerned.

1. On the weekly chart, a major trendline is being respected:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=181323


and the drop downwards has to land on a trendline. So far its in limbo space, meaning it has not landed on a half decent support level / trendline. Its going to continue its motions downwards until it reaches a trendline where it can reverse, and is strong enough to do so. In the past the lower trendline (see my post) has been quite strong.

2. The drop from 5140 to 4213 on the daily chart has 2 price extension levels that are very important. The first one is the 1.382 price extension level (1.3857) and the other one is the 1.618 price extension level which is 1.3637. If we say that we have a zigzag from the top of 5140 with

A=5140-4213
B=4213-4578
C=4578-??

Then C has to end up at either 1.382 (In this case it would be a truncated zigzag) or 1.618 price extension level (and in this case it would be a full zigzag). The motion on the daily/weekly wont reverse until it reaches these extension levels.

The fact that Wave B has retraced only 38.2 of Wave A tells you that the desire for the market to go down is a lot. This 38.2 retracement is often a characteristics of impulse waves /double zigzag/ tripple zigzag motions. The fact that it did retrace to 38.2 make the 1.618 price extension the most probable place where we are going to see a reversal, since it is also at that price level where our trendline on the weekly chart is telling us that there is a support level.

Somehow through some mysterious ways these price extensions are 80-90% of the time well respected.

As far as where to get in, you have 2 choices:

1. you let the motion go down, then wait for a retracement, and then get in.
2. You have 2 trendlines where you can get in with 5-7 pips of stoploss (The 2 red ones). If motion gets close to these trendlines you jump on the 1 minute chart and draw another set of trendlines over there where you might be able to see a double top or a tripple top or a curved top, and thats when you get in. If you got blown at the first trendline, then you wait till the second trendline and then you dive again on the 1 minute chart and do the same. You dont enter a position when motion is in between 2 trendlines that you have drawn on your chart, because there is a lot of danger in doing so, and you need a big account size to cover for any mistakes.
3. As long as you get the main direction on the daily chart, you should be fine. If you get the wrong direction on the daily chart then thats where a mess will happen.
Good Luck, hope that helps
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  • #185,783
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:29pm Jan 27, 2010 4:29pm
Nice analysis Kambooj.

On a seperate note, I don't see price making it up past 4063 tonight, unless Barry says something crazy. I have a number of TLs that would have to be broken for an actual move up to begin and I just don't see that happening, $$ will take the path of least resistance, which appears to be down. I want to see a break and close below 1.4 on the daily, then I will start to evaluate what the next target will be, ideally 3750 at some point in the near future.
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This is what awesome feels like
  • #185,784
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:35pm Jan 27, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting Kambooj
This is not a fake breakout, it is a slow breakout because of many reasons in the fundamental area, but basically the motion is not finished for 2 reasons as far as my own technical analysis is concerned.

1....
Damn, this highly informative. Thank you very much, sir.
  • #185,785
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:42pm Jan 27, 2010 4:42pm
kambooj thx for this and i eill watch pa near that TL and i ll take it on the divergence method of double top or the fibs pback and i respect your view . i took all my shorts off and i m looking for a reversal to go long on eur/usd and i m in a long position on aud/usd i ve taken from .8920 my target ,9 and i will wait on the test of eur . good luck to you . yhx for a very good reply . apperciate it man
  • #185,786
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:45pm Jan 27, 2010 4:45pm
.9 was first target and final target 0.9120
  • #185,787
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:53pm Jan 27, 2010 4:53pm
Quoting nawafasad1
kambooj this was a fake breakout . bears are done they r history go long on the test of the lows of today dont sell bottom wave5 is finished in an ending diagonal shape
im gonna save this one
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #185,788
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:55pm Jan 27, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
im gonna save this one
You are great....that made me laugh....
Let Price determine your future!
  • #185,789
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:56pm Jan 27, 2010 4:56pm
hi everyone,

i wanted to open a real account at alpari but they want me to sent them a "certified" proof of adress (electricity bill).

this is somewhat of a problem for me as my work hours are not easily compatible with going to a notary.

anyone can recomend a trustworthy broker that i can open an account "easily" (kind of just transfer the money and trade it).

i really wanted to go live on the 1st of feb...

thanks
dreams do come true.
  • #185,790
  • Jan 27, 2010 4:59pm Jan 27, 2010 4:59pm
Quoting wannaberich
hi everyone,

i wanted to open a real account at alpari but they want me to sent them a "certified" proof of adress (electricity bill).

this is somewhat of a problem for me as my work hours are not easily compatible with going to a notary.

anyone can recomend a trustworthy broker that i can open an account "easily" (kind of just transfer the money and trade it).

i really wanted to go live on the 1st of feb...

thanks
How "trustworthy" would you expect a broker to be if they didn't require some sort of authentication from you???
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #185,791
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:03pm Jan 27, 2010 5:03pm
just some that didn't need the "certified" part.

can give them all the papers they want. just wasn't expecting them to ask for the certification as this will stop me from starting 01/02/2010.

maybe i'll just forget about that date and worry about what is relevante on choosing a broker...

Quoting realjumper
How "trustworthy" would you expect a broker to be if they didn't require some sort of authentication from you???
dreams do come true.
  • #185,792
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:05pm Jan 27, 2010 5:05pm
we have been getting a little north drift from about the middle of the day till bonzi/roo time.. im in central tz... so we may get back to 54... might be a good short entry.. sl above 4111.. may be something to consider. with pres speach who knows... gu short at 6240 may be a good one also.. sl 10 plus a few.. IF
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #185,793
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:06pm Jan 27, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting wannaberich
just some that didn't need the "certified" part.

can give them all the papers they want. just wasn't expecting them to ask for the certification as this will stop me from starting 01/02/2010.

maybe i'll just forget about that date and worry about what is relevante on choosing a broker...
I think you'll find that most reputable brokers will want certified documents. After all, I could create just about any document in Photoshop!! It's just a minor inconvenience compared to the knowledge that you funds are safe
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #185,794
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:08pm Jan 27, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
we have been getting a little north drift from about the middle of the day till bonzi/roo time.. im in central tz... so we may get back to 54... might be a good short entry.. sl above 4111.. may be something to consider. with pres speach who knows... gu short at 6240 may be a good one also.. sl 10 plus a few.. IF
Yep, one of my shorts got stopped out (be +10) while I was sleeping, and I am eyeballing 4150 as a possible place to re-enter. Obama's speech might stop me from doing that though......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #185,795
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:10pm Jan 27, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
im gonna save this one
save this with it for the future who knows last time it was something like this can you remember when it came to 1.4218 and its gone up for wave 4 for 1.45 i said
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  • #185,796
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:12pm Jan 27, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting Matt99
Yes ,they close it for service ,was something wrong with the pipsfeeder...


no, the problem wasnt with the pipsfeeder it was the flux capacitor
  • #185,797
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:12pm Jan 27, 2010 5:12pm
you know my other solution is to get back to the broker i used before (where i lost my first €) but they won't allow less then 0.5 lots without comission (and this is with a 3 pip spread!) which, for the money i want to deposit will be average 4.5% risk per trade.

not very conforable way to get back to real money...

and then again i can always forget about the stupid date!

thanks real

Quoting realjumper
I think you'll find that most reputable brokers will want certified documents. After all, I could create just about any document in Photoshop!! It's just a minor inconvenience compared to the knowledge that you funds are safe
dreams do come true.
  • #185,798
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:16pm Jan 27, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting nawafasad1
save this with it for the future who knows
"
2235 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD should push lower near term, as USD has still not broken
key resistance levels, says GFT FX strategist Kathy Lien. "With the EUR/USD flirting with the 1.4000 level,
traders are now wondering whether the dollar will continue to rise. In the short term, we think this is very
possible considering that the dollar has either broken or is at the cusp of breaking important resistance levels.
" EUR/USD last 1.4023. (EGC)

"EUR/USD should push lower near term"

Not recommended:

Ok, sick and tired of this doom and gloom, enough is enough,

building long position from now on..

Went long, period. Will add from here lower....

IMHO.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #185,799
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:17pm Jan 27, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting wannaberich
you know my other solution is to get back to the broker i used before (where i lost my first €) but they won't allow less then 0.5 lots without comission (and this is with a 3 pip spread!) which, for the money i want to deposit will be average 4.5% risk per trade.

not very conforable way to get back to real money...

and then again i can always forget about the stupid date!

thanks real
What about Oanda? No complaints so far...
  • #185,800
  • Jan 27, 2010 5:18pm Jan 27, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
"
2235 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD should push lower near term, as USD has still not broken
key resistance levels, says GFT FX strategist Kathy Lien. "With the EUR/USD flirting with the 1.4000 level,
traders are now wondering whether the dollar will continue to rise. In the short term, we think this is very
possible considering that the dollar has either broken or is at the cusp of breaking important resistance levels.
" EUR/USD last 1.4023. (EGC)

"EUR/USD should push lower near term"

Not recommended:

Ok, sick and tired...
That thinning line of decisiveness in your argumentation made me laugh... welcome to my world bro.
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