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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #14,661
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:20am Jan 27, 2010 10:20am
Quoting Kas1
How are you trying to play the range? 25-52 area? looks to me like going long off 25 may not be a bad idea
http://i46.tinypic.com/2zdwqqr.jpg

actually I meant that the currency will go into range mode (the blue area) ie range play ... not that I will play the range ..

that's why i said i might consider if it drops off 89.10 to confirm that the downtrend is intact .
  • #14,662
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:24am Jan 27, 2010 10:24am
Quoting TheArcher
actually I meant that the currency will go into range mode (the blue area) ie range play ... not that I will play the range ..
ah my mistake...I usually just look for breakouts but want to learn to play the ranges well...
  • #14,663
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:27am Jan 27, 2010 10:27am
Quoting Kas1
I just started using volume a couple months ago...also started using wide range body analysis...I would say the best thing to do is find master the markets by tom williams (google)
yes i have read the book sometimes back .... but i just wonder about how the volume is reflected on the forex charts if different brokers give different volume figures ... basically all i need is the price chart ... and a little common indicators here and there for a little bit of confirmation ...
  • #14,664
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:30am Jan 27, 2010 10:30am
Quoting Kas1
ah my mistake...I usually just look for breakouts but want to learn to play the ranges well...
great ! i too look out for breakouts !

range plays are difficult to play. if u want to may consider using stocastics ... but i avoid range plays ..
  • #14,665
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:36am Jan 27, 2010 10:36am
Quoting TheArcher
yes i have read the book sometimes back .... but i just wonder about how the volume is reflected on the charts if different brokers give different volume figures ... basically all i need is the price chart ... and a little common indicators here and there for a little bit of confirmation ...
I think if you want more accurate volume, you have to pay for it. If it works for you, use it. Id rather watch the volume of a major broker then no volume at all...trendlines with volume analysis can be powerful...
  • #14,666
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:53am Jan 27, 2010 10:53am
Quoting Kas1
...trendlines with volume analysis can be powerful...
no denying that statement .

thanks for all ur help .

  • #14,667
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:54am Jan 27, 2010 10:54am
Quoting TheArcher
no denying that statement .

thanks for all ur help .

ur welcome...that is why we are here, to help eachother...
  • #14,668
  • Jan 27, 2010 11:07am Jan 27, 2010 11:07am
Quoting TheArcher
might consider if it drops from 89.10 ... until then i think it might do range play on 1hr chart ...

i am comfortable with 20pips per trade ... all others are a bonus ...

do believe in this

on an up day the price makes a low first then goes up

on a down day it goes up first then goes day

have you seen this before

i have a few times just wondered if you ve noticed it before too?

on a 20 pip take to how do you risk it
1:1 ratio risk and return
you have a special method?

i do it as well time to time but you might be better at it
couldnt advise how you trade
and ill tell you how i trade to
  • #14,669
  • Jan 27, 2010 11:08am Jan 27, 2010 11:08am
Quoting Kas1
Id rather watch the volume of a major broker then no volume at all...
major broker .. who are they ?
  • #14,670
  • Jan 27, 2010 11:31am Jan 27, 2010 11:31am
Quoting TheArcher
major broker...who are they ?
I think many will argue about who is major and who isn't. This is taken from a site that averaged the ratings of brokers from individual traders around the web

1. Dukascopy Swiss FX (Dukascopy)
2. Delta Stock
3. Windsor Brokers, Ltd.
4. MB Trading
5 . FCMarket
6. The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBG) (formerly ABN AMRO)
7. AvailTradingCorp. (ATC Brokers)
8. Questrade Inc. (Questrade)
9. Alpari IDC (Alpari)
10. MG Financial Group (MG Forex)

http://www.bestonlineforexbrokers.co...x-Brokers.html
  • #14,671
  • Edited 1:54pm Jan 27, 2010 1:40pm | Edited 1:54pm
Yes, now we need confirmation of Berni to complete the double whammy. Vote is set for tomorrow (THU), and some senators had said if they did not have the numbers to confirm, they would not set it. Hmmm..I am liking this.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/27/news...irmation_vote/
  • #14,672
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:03pm Jan 27, 2010 3:03pm
...stepped out for a bit and came back to see this nice breakout from 52...8978 9004, new range for me
  • #14,673
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:09pm Jan 27, 2010 3:09pm
The dust settled....distribution seems over....short USDJPY EURJPY and GBPJPY now
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #14,674
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:14pm Jan 27, 2010 3:14pm
Interesting how every currency pair that spiked when the news hit rescinded back to where it started, yet the USD/JPY is stubbornly hovering around 90. Nice time to go short at an ultra discounted price. I started at 89.90.
  • #14,675
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:16pm Jan 27, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting kuroro001
....short USDJPY EURJPY and GBPJPY now
what makes you think they will drop?
  • #14,676
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:28pm Jan 27, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting Kas1
what makes you think they will drop?
Price action and volume tell me to short them all...


I don't believe in this upmove....after the spike of the news....vol kept decreasing and yet price went higher...now spreads are lower with low vol i don't see any more demand for them
About price action (in 5mn chart)....impressive candle with long upper shadow closing far from the top (with high vol)
All of this warns me about some kind of distribution or hidden sellers
So i shorted them all with a 30 pips stop for EURJPY and USDJPY and 50 for GBPJPY...if i'm wrong i won't lose much
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #14,677
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:35pm Jan 27, 2010 3:35pm
Quoting kuroro001
Price action and volume tell me to short them all...


I don't believe in this upmove....after the spike of the news....vol kept decreasing and yet price went higher...now spreads are lower with low vol i don't see any more demand for them
About price action (in 5mn chart)....impressive candle with long upper shadow closing far from the top (with high vol)
All of this warns me about some kind of distribution or hidden sellers
So i shorted them all with a 30 pips stop for EURJPY and USDJPY and 50 for GBPJPY...if i'm wrong i won't lose much
I see what ur talkin about on the h4/h1/m15...no volume to push through 9004, good point...I spotted the breakout at 52 with wide range body analysis...volume was dropping on the h4 then, but was picking up on the h1/m15...hope it goes well for you
  • #14,678
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:46pm Jan 27, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting Kas1
I see what ur talkin about on the h4/h1/m15...no volume to push through 9004, good point...I spotted the breakout at 52 with wide range body analysis...volume was dropping on the h4 then, but was picking up on the h1/m15...hope it goes well for you

And i'm kind of suprise of this price going higher because if you look at the 5mn chart before news...price was going up without any vol probably a lack of interest before the news cause no one knew what was going to happen
And now prices spike with high vol....then continue without it ...so weird that buyers stopped like that
It can only be a trick to get more buyers before the fall...that's my guess but i might be wrong of course
And if i am , there'll be plenty of other trades out there

GL to everyone
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #14,679
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:54pm Jan 27, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting kuroro001
Price action and volume tell me to short them all...


I don't believe in this upmove....after the spike of the news....vol kept decreasing and yet price went higher...now spreads are lower with low vol i don't see any more demand for them
About price action (in 5mn chart)....impressive candle with long upper shadow closing far from the top (with high vol)
All of this warns me about some kind of distribution or hidden sellers
So i shorted them all with a 30 pips stop for EURJPY and USDJPY and 50 for GBPJPY...if i'm wrong i won't lose much
you may be right, cause fundamentally traders might not believe what the feds said...they did not mention any of the problems...this was done to help Bernie get confirmed,,that is why the move was measly and has not had follow thru...I would not short it just now, but I would take any news profits to be careful
  • #14,680
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:09pm Jan 27, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting swano
hi the fib retracment is basically as it says

say the price is going down, it usually goes up a bit to the fib lines

30 50 70 100


usually

if it hit 70 it usually means the trend is reversed and is going up

if i hits 30 and has good resistance then the tend might continue to go down

might be a good place to put a sell bet in one you obversed it and studied it enough

think its based on a mathematic thing invent by leonardo divinici

perfect balance thingy
Thanks mate, anyway USD/JPY todays touch 90.30, and at my Fib it touch the first fib line, let see if the first line of my fib retracement is broken or not.
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