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  • #185,241
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:05am Jan 27, 2010 12:05am
Quoting Chicky
Hi Psi,

Welcome back.

Yes, 1.4000 is a difficult level for bears. I am a trapped bull looking at 1.4500 to BE and eyeing at 1.5500 to bag some green pips. It will be very long wait for me.
i ll give u little advice , i was in ur position before where i was workin out a trade that didnt work and i left myself stuck with it till it goes back to green status , i had regrets for one thing ,, i didnt try to hedge it
try to look at the charts in a realistic way and trade the shorts in any other pair if ur broker dont allow u to hedge the same pair ,
cause in my opinion , we migh not see 1.5 till at least 6 month , so move on by either closin this position or by hedging it to pip some money till it goes back to its orignial postion ,
  • #185,242
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:11am Jan 27, 2010 12:11am
Quoting Chicky
Ak, Is there a way to regain status of a Junior Member without overloading infractions?
Consider it Done my friend...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #185,243
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:12am Jan 27, 2010 12:12am
Hi chicky you are ca. 450 pips from BE why dont you scalp/scaling it out.? and close the position
StopLoss is for none belivers... Trust the Gurus..
  • #185,244
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:21am Jan 27, 2010 12:21am
Federer vs. Davydenko LIVE @ the Australian Open

http://espn.go.com/broadband/espn360...&league=Tennis
  • #185,245
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:22am Jan 27, 2010 12:22am
Quoting lillelise
Hi chicky you are ca. 450 pips from BE why dont you scalp/scaling it out.? and close the position
Scalping is not my territory. I'm 500 pips from BE, 1500 from a Margin Call and have over 3,000 pips in accumulated FX trading reseve available on a three-day call to prevent a margin call. This makes a switching decision difficult. I know this is not a good situation but would wait and see.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #185,246
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:24am Jan 27, 2010 12:24am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Federer vs. Davydenko LIVE @ the Australian Open

http://espn.go.com/broadband/espn360...&league=Tennis

sorry im too busy watching the most hilarious show on tv http://www.hulu.com/watch/2445/its-a...-over-the-city
  • #185,247
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:26am Jan 27, 2010 12:26am
Quoting ak4x
Attachment Good God man, look a'rd here!!!

Why would you possibly want to be a "Normal" member??
Because my post needs to be moderated before they are posted.

Sometimes during critical points, I might like to seek the opinion of the more experienced traders here.
  • #185,248
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:26am Jan 27, 2010 12:26am
bad situation....but im sure if you dont get a margin call...sooner or later youlll profit on the position...

personally...i gave up the longer timeframe trading...
20-40 pips drawdown is plenty for me..
StopLoss is for none belivers... Trust the Gurus..
  • #185,249
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:27am Jan 27, 2010 12:27am
Quoting Chicky
Scalping is not my territory. I'm 500 pips from BE, 1500 from a Margin Call and have over 3,000 pips in accumulated FX trading reseve available on a three-day call to prevent a margin call. This makes a switching decision difficult. I know this is not a good situation but would wait and see.
I appreciate your patience for waiting 500 pips for break even.
  • #185,250
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:28am Jan 27, 2010 12:28am
WoW... what a boring day of trading... I think the world is not sure what will happen with Davos, so they are keeping their money in their coffins, which is the wises thing to do...

I hope things start moving soon.
  • #185,251
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:29am Jan 27, 2010 12:29am
Quoting psiholog
I hate to suggest this as you are the only master of your account but in my opinion...if PA falls below 1.4000 after the big news on Wed and continues to do so after the Bernanke decision...you really need to reconsider whether having a long term bullish stance is the most wise thing to do, technically and fundamentally.

On another note...January has met my expectations and more as you recall my history...I have a win and feel nothing other then a small sense of satisfaction. I lose a trade and feel nothing period...no more revenge trading like...
Dear Psiholog,

Could you kindly explain/elaborate a little on why PA might fall below 1.4000 after the big news on Wednesday?

Edited: FOMC Statement - Thursday morning 3.15 am for my timezone.

If FED rates remain the same, USD good for borrowing to speculate in other currencies. Doesnt that imply that Euro should go up instead of down?
  • #185,252
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:30am Jan 27, 2010 12:30am
Quoting kilalik
WoW... what a boring day of trading... I think the world is not sure what will happen with Davos, so they are keeping their money in their coffins, which is the wises thing to do...

I hope things start moving soon.
before the storm?!
  • #185,253
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:33am Jan 27, 2010 12:33am
Quoting ak4x
Consider it Done my friend... Attachment
Thanks Ak. This is more than I wished for.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #185,254
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:33am Jan 27, 2010 12:33am
Quoting Chicky

My longs are not revenge trades. It is a bit difficult for me to digest that value of a currency quickly appreciating despite several factors indicating economic deterioration. I am not sure if my knowledge of economics is correct but this is what the book says. Most probably I have picked a wrong currency to short the USD with.
I hope you do not make the mistakes many others do (I won't say any names) and analyze things only from the perspective of the American economy, budget deficit/debt and so on. Try to see things from the EU point of view as well, how healthy their economy is and all that relates to a strong or weak Euro. Then you must also consider the fact 2009 was all about US buying treasuries, are they still doing it?...Haven't heard much about the topic since November. Not only that but with our debt as a nation estimated to become greater then the GDP for 2011, and the unemployment rate around 10% all the way until 2014 you must ask yourself, is a weak dollar or a strong dollar more beneficial to those countries we owe money to? Then of course there is the technicals. If you recall 2008 when we were at 1.6...PA fell so fast, a lot of traders new and experienced felt the sting. Are we in a similar situation now? You be the judge.

Keep this in mind as well, I am not trying to insinuate anything. There are just so many variables you must consider in longer term trading, most of your analysis has to be right. Then there is the issue of timing. For example, 2009 I was extremely bearish the entire year. The majority of my trades for 2009 where sell. I was not a loser overall but I was not a winner either..just a mere survivor. I was simply too early for the expected USD strength. Now that we are actually seeing some strength, I could care less. I just trade what I see on my charts in the present, not based on how things should be. Take last week for example, 2 out of the 5 days I had only buy trades when PA was falling HARD...yet I still made my 36pips per day on average.

I really hope you get through this situation with a great lesson learned, not based on the result of your positions (you will bounce back no matter what I'm sure of it) but based on how to handle positions properly in the future, from beggining (the analysis period followed by market entry) to the middle (the how your analysis is progressing over time) to the end (when you close positions and why).

Good pippin Chicky and everyone else, I must catch some ZZZZ's now.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #185,255
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:39am Jan 27, 2010 12:39am
Take care and thank you Psiholog.

Donnie
  • #185,256
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:39am Jan 27, 2010 12:39am
Quoting Xismal
Dear Psiholog,

Could you kindly explain/elaborate a little on why PA might fall below 1.4000 after the big news on Wednesday?

Edited: FOMC Statement - Thursday morning 3.15 am for my timezone.

If FED rates remain the same, USD good for borrowing to speculate in other currencies. Doesnt that imply that Euro should go up instead of down?
I will answer this quickly before I go..it's simple really. The fed rate decision itself does not matter...everyone knows it will stay at .25%, they have to keep it there. What does matter and may move the market significantly is the statement that follows. At the last policy meeting there was already a hawkish fed member. In other words, if whatever is said suggests a rate hike in the future, this is very bullish for the dollar and the reaction may be seen right away with a drop below 1.4. If the tone remains neutral as in no change, well then..the market may just continue to consolidate until the Bernanke reappointment decision, which is also a high impact piece of news since it relates to the long term. I hope this clarifies things a bit.

Let's not forget those meetings in Switzerland either, Day 1 is here and who knows how that may impact the markets today and for the rest of the year, it just really is a very important news day that may be interpreted by the markets in any way but the one key is a lot of volatility.

Really going now..good pippin all.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #185,257
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:40am Jan 27, 2010 12:40am
Quoting swingtrader
I appreciate your patience for waiting 500 pips for break even.
Swing, may add more on first sign of it going up. This way BE may come a couple of hundred points before 1.4500 or Margin Call may get nearer by another 500 points. But you cannot steal a lion's cub without entering her den.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #185,258
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:48am Jan 27, 2010 12:48am
Quoting psiholog
I will answer this quickly before I go..it's simple really. The fed rate decision itself does not matter...everyone knows it will stay at .25%, they have to keep it there. What does matter and may move the market significantly is the statement that follows. At the last policy meeting there was already a hawkish fed member. In other words, if whatever is said suggests a rate hike in the future, this is very bullish for the dollar and the reaction may be seen right away with a drop below 1.4. If the tone remains neutral as in no change, well then..the...
Awesome!

A big thanks for the kind explanation!
  • #185,259
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:54am Jan 27, 2010 12:54am
damm that fundamental stuff is confusing..lol
tooo difficult for me..too many contradicting informations i think...

technical rules...lol for us stupid ones
StopLoss is for none belivers... Trust the Gurus..
  • #185,260
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:56am Jan 27, 2010 12:56am
Quoting lillelise
damm that fundamental stuff is confusing..lol
tooo difficult for me..too many contradicting informations i think...

technical rules...lol for us stupid ones
YES for us stupid ones
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