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  • #185,081
  • Jan 26, 2010 11:36am Jan 26, 2010 11:36am
possible reverse H&S forming on 30 min charts. could push the Euro up to 1.4162 and back into the range from yesterday.
  • #185,082
  • Jan 26, 2010 11:39am Jan 26, 2010 11:39am
4172 should be the determining level if there will be a reversal long
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  • #185,083
  • Jan 26, 2010 11:42am Jan 26, 2010 11:42am
Quoting mfoste1
4172 should be the determining level if there will be a reversal long
Good evening everyone

To my mind it will test the bottom again in Asian session tonight.
  • #185,084
  • Jan 26, 2010 11:49am Jan 26, 2010 11:49am
A possible 5th wave extension Trending Impulse wave is in progress. Waves 2 and 4 have finished already and the length of wave 5 will be equal to the total drop from the beginning of wave 1 to end of 3. That is a huge 560 pips of drop. This drop will be observed from the top of 4200 level.

4200 - 560 = 3640

which is roughly also the 1.618 price extension of the drop from 5140 to 4213.

All evidence adding up to more down. Dont be fooled into going long
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  • #185,085
  • Jan 26, 2010 11:55am Jan 26, 2010 11:55am
hi every body
the lines show where you should enter the market
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  • #185,086
  • Jan 26, 2010 11:59am Jan 26, 2010 11:59am
Quoting jdutch
possible reverse H&S forming on 30 min charts. could push the Euro up to 1.4162 and back into the range from yesterday.

What about the H&S on the 5mn chart..is it a valid one ?
I dunno nothing about these kind of pattern
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #185,087
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:00pm Jan 26, 2010 12:00pm
People ! You are so bearisch, it can only go up !
  • #185,088
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:01pm Jan 26, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting Doc'
People ! You are so bearisch, it can only go up !
Because?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #185,089
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:07pm Jan 26, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting stantony1
I opened a short on Friday at 1.4125 SL at 1.4235

Target is 1.4050 for a 4 hour chart target. ( low of the last few days )

Based on Fib and Elliot Wave.

This might be wave 5 down on the 4 hour chart

The long term target is 1.3950 if you look at the weekly fib.

Attached is the 4 hour I am working on.
PROFIT +75.

I am flat since 4050. I think it will trace back up to 4120 and then back down again to 3950. The fifth wave impulse not done yet.

Will reenter short around 4120. Need to do more charting first.
  • #185,090
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:10pm Jan 26, 2010 12:10pm
kambooj W5 is not related in anyway to w1-w3 but w5 61.8, 100 or 161.8 of wave1 in price not time or it could be related to w4 127-161.8 in price not time
  • #185,091
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:12pm Jan 26, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting Kambooj
A possible 5th wave extension Trending Impulse wave is in progress. Waves 2 and 4 have finished already and the length of wave 5 will be equal to the total drop from the beginning of wave 1 to end of 3. That is a huge 560 pips of drop. This drop will be observed from the top of 4200 level.

4200 - 560 = 3640

which is roughly also the 1.618 price extension of the drop from 5140 to 4213.

All evidence adding up to more down. Dont be fooled into going long
I dont use EW but my analysis posted here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=184213 2 days ago, supports a similar target and has kept me short in every rally since - including the current one I just took profit from
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #185,092
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:13pm Jan 26, 2010 12:13pm
Shorted at 1.4082. Just a scalp... I hope.
  • #185,093
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:16pm Jan 26, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting stantony1
PROFIT +75.

I am flat since 4050. I think it will trace back up to 4120 and then back down again to 3950. The fifth wave impulse not done yet.

Will reenter short around 4120. Need to do more charting first.
Good Choice,

One of the characteristics of wave 5 in its early stages of its development has been always been retracements that look more spiky and solid but lack enough momentum to slice with enough force through the 2-4 trendline. Many times Running Flat corrections are mistaken for ending of impulse waves and improper counts. A running flat correction has a C wave that retraces about 38.2 or 50% of the previous B wave . Since they are C waves, and carry a strong thrust, everybody thinks a reversal is happening.

In our case Once the low of wave 4, namely 4020 region gets broken, you find quick surges downwards. The only area where a reasonable size retracement will be observed, which again will fool a lot of people is the 1.382 price extension of the drop from 5145 to 4213, which is roughly 3858. So keep your short position until the lows of 3900 / mid 3800 and then exit there. Then again prepare to enter the market once the retracement off the 3858 region has lost steam.
  • #185,094
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:17pm Jan 26, 2010 12:17pm
do a a little exercise ...

Do a little spread sheet. assume 40 pip is ONLY .5% of account per day. Work out the math . The compounded effect of 40 pip per day which is .5% return on account is massive

2k grows to about 30 k in 3 years ... sound like a long time I know but once you get to this point , but by this time you have your system dialed in. Year 5 your 2k is worth about 580 k



Quoting wannaberich
Hi guys,

would really appreciate your feedback on this:

many times i have some 40 or 50 pips profit to take, blink my eyes and it goes to SL. eventually i am at breakeven at that point but still feels like i am throwing money out the window. so you say: set TP to 40 pips, dumbass! but in that case i miss out some very interesting moves when the move goes past those 40 or 50. should i stick to this approach (let profits roll) i should use a smaller TP?

thanks for your input.

hapipipin to u all

thinking of loading a short right now.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #185,095
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:17pm Jan 26, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting stantony1
Will reenter short around 4120. Need to do more charting first.

Maybe tomorrow. US FOMC decision on rates: "Interest rates to remain very

low for an extended period" - I won't be surprise to see USD weaken some on

back of this plus additional Market/GOLD rally also possible after FED

statement.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #185,096
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:20pm Jan 26, 2010 12:20pm
lots of constipation in here.. where was last support... its now resistance.. below it bears still control situation.. we never even passed a baby resistance.. its called consolidation until.. look at a bigger tf. you may see flag.. but then again many see what they want. many times there are flags on this pair. first it was bear then bull now bear again.with or without a pole... it may but 4111 will have to be broken then 4139 for bulls to gain control.. an uphill battle.. unlikely. but not impossible. support at 4054 still there and a bounce from there was expected.. i did not pull 4111 out my ass pryer to it meaning anything or 39 weeks ago.. nor 54 nor st target below 3924... its a game of probabilitys so if the unlikely happens 4139 will be a clue on where pair wants to go.. 4139 could take us to 4250 plus a few.. it has to get through the ones mentioned and 4171 4209... 4179 39 11 get stronger all the time.. not impossible but path of least resistance is lower..look at the chart you will see the levels respected, a clue. i dont know where we are going.. but when i see a train on a track pointing in a direction i assume its going to the next town at least. but i do know trains have reverse also..

i dont know where we are going. but money is on the probable..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #185,097
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:24pm Jan 26, 2010 12:24pm
Sky this will be nothing new .....if they say interest rates to stay low for extended period of time and economy will be slow growth


Quoting SkyzerFX
Maybe tomorrow. US FOMC decision on rates: "Interest rates to remain very

low for an extended period" - I won't be surprise to see USD weaken some on

back of this plus additional Market/GOLD rally also possible after FED

statement.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #185,098
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:26pm Jan 26, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting nawafasad1
kambooj W5 is not related in anyway to w1-w3 but w5 61.8, 100 or 161.8 of wave1 in price not time or it could be related to w4 127-161.8 in price not time

What Impulse we are talking about?

We have a third wave extension impulse wave, and a first wave extension impulse wave and a 5th wave extension impulse wave. Each one has its own relationship between the wave.

The one that I am talking about is a 5th wave extension impulse wave. I am considering the drop from the high of 4578 to be a 5th wave extension impulse wave. it creates a expanding market condition. The 5th wave has started from the high of 4194 and it is in its early stages of its formation. its not done yet.

5th wave extensions are very trecherous formations, and they cause a lot of wipsaws, because the 5th wave once, "not done", will make the formation look like a third wave extension, making a lot of people think that the 5th wave is done, and now I reverse. Wow !!! What a big mistake

Very very dangerous assumption to make. In a 5th wave extension the size of the 5th wave is usually equal to the total number of pips from the beginning of wave 1 to end of wave 3 added to the end of wave 4. And that is the minimum. 5th wave extensions can also extend their 5th wave beyond that, and cut through the 1 to 3 trendline too, thats a scary one. From my own experience over the past 5 years, ususally they end up about the same size as the total from the beginning of wave 1 to end of wave 3.
  • #185,099
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:26pm Jan 26, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting Doc'
People ! You are so bearisch, it can only go up !
then you should place all your money long. because its just a matter of time before you drain your account. this will save you time. time is more precious then money.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #185,100
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:26pm Jan 26, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting TrooperCoope
Shorted at 1.4082. Just a scalp... I hope.
SL at BE now... no run, no fun!
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