EURUSD

some geometry. of course it does not have to hold true.

target is 1.3630

i think we might ve finished wave 4 and this is the start of wave 5 to the downside target 1.4 and that will be the first leg or wave a so it ll go up to 1.47 to form wave b . this is only my opinion and i could be wrong

It's neither short nor long. All will depends on

US/WORLD-Wide Equity Markets. Would they sell-off further down? How far?

Some of the shares I see, Dropped so much in just last 3 days and

getting more attractive. China still growing at 8-9% rate a year.

Don't see any reason for their Market tank 15% as of now.

Russian Ruble still strong compare to both EUR and USD, which

tells me that carry or risky trade still there.

If DOW will NOT drop below 10000 then EU will stay above 1.40 period.

So we kind of in the hands of Global Stock Markets right now.

Who knows where it's going? I think we'll see rebound on Monday.

And volatility index in both DOW and NASDAQ still not that high for collapse

in stock market. IMHO.

Interesting statistic numbers:

"According to the Federal Reserve’s most recent report on wealth, America’s private net worth was $53.4 trillion as of September, 2009.
But at the same time, America’s debt and unfunded liabilities totaled at least $120,000,000,000,000.00 ($120 trillion), or 225%
of the citizens’ net worth. Even if the government expropriated every dollar of private wealth in the nation, it would still have a
deficit of $66,600,000,000,000.00 ($66.6 trillion), equal to $214,286.00 for every man, woman and child in America and roughly 500% of GDP.
If the government does not directly seize the nation’s private wealth, then it will require $389,610 from each and every citizen to balance
the country’s books. State, county and municipal debts and deficits are additional, already elephantine in many states
(e.g., California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York) and growing at an alarming rate nationwide. In addition to the federal government,
dozens of states are already bankrupt and sinking deeper into the morass every day.

The government continues to dig a deeper and deeper fiscal grave in which to bury its citizens. This year, the federal deficit will total
at least $1,600,000,000,000.00 ($1.6 trillion), which represents overspending of $4,383,561,600.00 ($4.38 billion) per day.
(The deficit during October and November, 2009, the first two months of Fiscal Year 2010, totaled $296,700,000,000.00 ($297 billion),
or $4,863,934,000.00 ($4.9 billion) per day, a record.) Using the GAAP accounting method (which is what corporations are required to
use because it presents a far more accurate and honest picture of a company’s finances than the cash accounting method primarily
and misleadingly used by the U.S. government), the nation’s fiscal year 2009 deficit was roughly $9,000,000,000,000.00 ($9 trillion),
or $24,700,000,000.00 ($24.7 billion) per day, as calculated by brilliant and well-respected economist John Williams."

==
Were you think it's all going?

May take any shape with time , 5th wave of a smaller wave down relative to the very big retracement expected, may end or not.This week will decide what .Greece , Obama ,Bernanke & china factors with US important news will come into action together.
But from chart it seems ended apparently and counts can repaint with time .
fontu

What do you think about a retracement next week up to 1,4250 ??

I am watching a bounce on 1.4020-40 ,it would make a doublebottom. 4H.

Apparently Stock Market create much bigger less risky opportunities right

now

ExxonMobil, When Market Crashed and OIL went below $40 was

hitting around $63/share back in March 2008 Right now it's below

or about $66/share.. $2 more $ down or wherever it bounce from now

and it's like money in the bank, it's a screaming buy now, but I'd wait

till all the freaks are out and then Buy.

Where do u think the freaks are out? below 1.4?

shooting star on monthly chart is still powerful, will go up for a while to 1.42xx then go down to 1.4950. maybe..

Some interesting symmetry here.

I'm all for simplicity and mainly do my long&medio term analyzes on higher timeframes. (Daily/H4/H1). Using this simple symmetry analyzes, C Wave first target is in the 3650 area. Most likely we will see a further down move after that.

And it can happen VERY fast. At present we are seeing some temporary correction (could go to 4225 > 4250/80 area), but already by end of next week we could be facing the 1.36x area. Check the chart.

NOTE: the longer time it hangs around current level (below 4181 high), the bigger chance of turning south again without making new highs. Notice also how the ema26 has held both the A and C wave.

If you have have a bearish outlook, I hope this serves you.

Do you mean 1.3950 maybe !?

'up' to 1.42xx then 'down' to 1.4950?? are you talking from the perspective of the usd? sorry i am confused

One thing I know for sure is that Large Traders LONG position on

USD Index has been decreasing and now around 30000, which represents

25% decline from the top (around 40k) , and it's decreasing quite fast,

On the Other hand EURO SHORT positions has been decreasing from 35k to 25k.

Though lots of

things could happened in 2-3 weeks but that's my approx. Time target by which I expect

LONG LARGE TRADERS positions be around 0 to 10k and that's time,

when USD Index will start to move fast in Direction it's should fundamentally

be going and that's DOWN, all the way.

its a game of probabilty.

the last 9 years of placing a eu long and forgetting about it is over. for the last year we have heard that the fed is printing. over and over again. we hear about this now mostly for political points and it makes good copy. the truth is yes money is being printed, but probably less then before. but lately money printed is more for goverment use then comparibly for private use, like in the past. little was said about other govs printing, but they were and they still are. so the old buy the rumer was alive the last year. the fed also fed the rumor. but today reality is catching on.

banking 101. when we place money in a u.s. bank for deposit the bank can then loan a greater amount to a borrower. less just say for every 1$ on deposit a bank can loan 10$. this is done because the fed will allow the bank to borrow 10$ from it per 1$ at a certain interest. to do this the fed then prints the 10$ to loan the bank, who loans it to the borower. a 1 to 10 leverage for the bank. this works well as long as money is being borrowed or loaned at greater amounts.. most ponzi schemes do early on. but as time went on we put less in the deposit amounts but borrowed more. this inflated most prices. then the banks quit loaning because of credit tightening. less deposits meant you can loan less. loaning less made prices drop. prices drop meant equity in colateral drops...no new loans deposits drop to try to stay afloat..soon crash and so on... lots of factors contribute to this high oil, easy money, liar loans.. but it was not just the home owners it was corporate lies also, overleraged hedging ect...

with this private demand for loans or banks not giving loans slowed private printing for fed printing. credit by banks has decreased hundreds of trillians of $. although savings rates have now increased. savings in banks pulls $ out the system. so in reality fed is probably printing less usd. less supply usd means more demand. this was happening before dybai, greece ect... the rule of 72 will catch up with china. maybe it already has. but them tightening credit may just the start..

i dont know where this pair is going or the usd. i like to go with the probabiltys.. look at a weekly chart. think about the possibilty that a big bear flag has formed (eux). think about those st bullish signs as part of a flag.. then consider where the pole takes us. if this is the case think further on a even bigger cup/handle forming on the usdx..

good luck...

Ok, here is another case look and tell me what you see..

GOLD and USDx - 5 Years

Look at that Lime (Large Traders) and Chart.. Look, where it is today

for USD Index??? See? Lime line where is Picks ABOVE 0 (That's LONGS) and compare to where the Pair is trading

on chart. Yes, USDx Just start going down the Hill it's 5 years

and as you know charts don't lie. Dollar heading down soon.

On the money...

and to add my piece to this great analysis gator provides...

US interest rates have only one way to go. Do the math.

120 trillion $$$ in liabilities and you talking about 0 leverage.. It's a joke.

Even GDP is leveraged by the same amount. 0 leverage will means Devide GDP # by 100.

Now FED will have to leverage 1:100 1:300 because all that DEBT FEDS have

was creating by leveraging up everything. Now there is 2 ways

either delete 6 zeros or so on the right or keep printing even at higher

leverage. Where they going to take trillions without any leverage???

This is impossible by any means.

==============================
Either All DEBT has to be purged and

everything start from scratch with 0 leverage or they have to

leverage at even higher rates to keep this bubble inflated. Period.

You want easy example?

OK, suppose you were successful trader and making money of 2000$ account with 1:400 leverage.

Now your leverage cut to 1:10 or even 1:1 as you said, Question how this will impact your profits???

Will Rising interest rates on your 2000$ by 0.5% will help you???..

Using technicals is a good way to trade but remember that a no vote for Bernanke could be a major fundamental event.
http://news.forexdistrict.com/2010/f...amental-event/

No one man is greater than the machine...