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  • #9,401
  • Jan 21, 2010 5:59pm Jan 21, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting Donadoney
The aussie and the kiwi have both formed BEEB on the daily timeframes at key resistance levels. I will be waiting for PA on the kiwi because of its better RR to validate a short, on the break of the low of the BEEB with my stop 10 pips above the high of the bar. Target is 70.70.
Okay maybe. This trade was a little riskier than a stress free trade. I got out a little early BUT with nice profit. I am a bit of a chicken I admit, I will watch PA since the trendline is broken. I am very proud of this trade and it has helped my confidence a lot.
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  • #9,402
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:37pm Jan 21, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting Donadoney
Okay maybe. This trade was a little riskier than a stress free trade. I got out a little early BUT with nice profit. I am a bit of a chicken I admit, I will watch PA since the trendline is broken. I am very proud of this trade and it has helped my confidence a lot.
Personally, I didn't see 0.7440 as being good resistance and I was waiting for some PA around the 0.7480 level to go short. Also the 0.7300 psycho and support right below told me to hold off because of the risk/reward. Looks like all worked out well for you on this one, though.

Dave
  • #9,403
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:00pm Jan 21, 2010 10:00pm
A bit of a clue as to the short/medium term for the USD pairs ... hmm ...
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  • #9,404
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:32pm Jan 21, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting pipfx
Would you wait for a break of the bosses most recent LL to confirm the trend reversal?
Since 2009 0.9800 high, boss is doing LH-LL. And recently up TL from 2007 Sept. has been broken. For me, trend is down based on swing analysis.
  • #9,405
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:42pm Jan 21, 2010 10:42pm
No words for this really.
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  • #9,406
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:48pm Jan 21, 2010 10:48pm
Quoting faces
IF I go long, I would get out at 1.4240, not trying to do anything more fancy than that.

faces
That would be fancy enough, IMO. I don't see any minor-major SR at 1.4240, only a minor SR at 1.4000. (though more psycho.) and a major one at 1.3700.
Trend is down, IMO.
  • #9,407
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:28pm Jan 21, 2010 11:28pm
Quoting Donadoney
No words for this really.
Chart is more than enough. A slight slope to SR would do no harm, IMO.
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  • #9,408
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:32am Jan 22, 2010 12:32am
Hello everyone,

I believe in looking ahead to see what risks and opportunities are in the immediate future. I always want to make sure that I am on the right side of the market during these risks / opportunities.

For those of you who don't look at fundamentals, this is a potential risk that you may not see coming.

If you tend to fall asleep during my fundamental rantings, then just jump down to the conclusion at the end of this post.

OK, the G7/8 meets several times a year to discuss the global economic situation, monetary policies, coordinated Central Bank intervention etc.

The US being a major consumer in the world has an effect on many economies around the world. In 2009, there were many countries that were very vocal about the USD weakness hitting their economies hard. And there has even been suggestions of a global coordinated central bank intervention to support the USD.

Central Bank intervention can move currencies several times their daily ranges. Even rumors of Central Bank intervention can have significant impacts on currencies.

Among the countries hit, the major economies of China, Japan and the EuroZone are wanting to see a stronger USD.

So will we see a globally coordinated central bank intervention?

IMO, this will depend on what happens to the USD up until the G7/8. If we see a continued strengthening of the USD, then probably not. On the otherhand, if we see the USD turn for the worse, then it is more likely.

The risk here is that the G7/8 will take place over the weekend on Feb 5-6, when the markets are closed.

Conclusion:

Make sure you are not caught out on the wrong side!

If a central bank intervention is hinted or even rumoured, we could see a huge gap over the weekend in favor of the USD.

So during the G7/8, I'm planning to either be long on the USD or stay out of the market completely.
-Razorjack
  • #9,409
  • Jan 22, 2010 4:58am Jan 22, 2010 4:58am
Quoting Blackeagle
That would be fancy enough, IMO. I don't see any minor-major SR at 1.4240, only a minor SR at 1.4000. (though more psycho.) and a major one at 1.3700.
Trend is down, IMO.
That's interesting. Why do you call the SR at 1.4000 (which I drew at 1.4062) as minor? It worked as support in july, been retested in august and it's where the price stopped falling now (at least temporarily).

On the weekly chart, I also see some action around there in december 2008 and the first time it acted as resistance was in septembre and october 2007.

About the one around 1.4240, I had set it around 1,43 on the weekly chart because of the low in december 2007, then adjusted it on the daily chart where it acted as resistance and support a few times. Do you ignore it because it hasn't been respected too many times?

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I am not questioning your SR levels (or lack of them), I'm sure you're better than me. I am just trying to get a better feeling myself. Would you mind posting your SR levels for the EURUSD?

Btw, the one I have down around 1,35 it does look like it belongs at 1,37 as you say. I had set it roughly on the monthly chart and didn't adust it as it was still kinda far away :-) I guess I should take the time to do that, else I'll take it for granted when the price gets there.

Regards,
faces
  • #9,410
  • Edited 8:20am Jan 22, 2010 8:01am | Edited 8:20am
Interesting situation, seems like all the major JPY crosses have run into key support areas.

USDJPY: Price bouncing around major psych level 90

AUDJPY: Price bouncing around psych level 81 and 50% Fib of swing from Nov 27 to Jan 11

NZDJPY: Prince bouncing off psych level 64 and 50% Fib of swing from Nov 27 to Jan 7

EURJPY: Prince bouncing off major psych level 127

GBPJPY: Price bouncing around psych level 145

CADJPY: Price bouncing around psych level 85 and 50% Fib of swing from Nov 27 to Jan 7

Coincidence or major buying opportunity?

After significant JPY strength yesterday, the prices just seem to be hovering around these key areas.

In my experience, when markets break through significant SR areas, they usually blow through them leaving no doubt. When the price hovers around like we're seeing now, it usually, but not always, bounces off the SR areas back in the opposite direction in a reversal.

Also, a significant economic event or change in fundamentals is usually required to break through these major levels. Could be speculation around China making fiscal and monetary policy changes this weekend.

This is NOT a recommendation to buy, but an observation and learning opportunity.
-Razorjack
  • #9,411
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:48am Jan 22, 2010 8:48am
Quoting hcristea
Thanks Strat!

I've tested that too before PASR, to split the position into 2 or 3 trades and using Take Profit. After running tests, I've noticed that using a TP was limiting my profits actually.

Now that i'm learning and trading PASR, I'm taking notes to see how i can optimize the trade management. But this might take awhile since I dont take so many trades now.

Do you use this technique to split a trade in 2 and take a partial profit at certain targets?
Partial profit

Thanks Strat!

I've tested that too before PASR, to split the position into 2 or 3 trades and using Take Profit. After running tests, I've noticed that using a TP was limiting my profits actually.

Now that i'm learning and trading PASR, I'm taking notes to see how i can optimize the trade management. But this might take awhile since I dont take so many trades now.

Do you use this technique to split a trade in 2 and take a partial profit at certain targets?

At the risk of repeating myself ad nausea, trading is very personal. We all have our different styles EVEN within the same method/strategy. What works for one will not work for the next. Horses for courses, different strokes for different folks and all that.

Trading someone else’s style may not be in harmony with your personal harmonics and could result in you being stressed.

For me, I don’t like using TP as it always left too much on the table. I prefer to go as far as PA will let me. Yes there are times when a TP would have worked better but not when I get locked into trends.

For those on The Path and at the level where they are now trading basic PASR with “live, real” money (not demo), and facing the “little people”, I recommend using 2 positions.

A TP on the first position puts money in the bank which helps “quiet” the little people. It then takes off all stress and pressure when we move our SL to BE on the 2nd position as, no matter what happens after that, we have our profits locked in the bank and cannot lose from there on.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,412
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:04am Jan 22, 2010 9:04am
Quoting Alexandra
LOL - Even I have some trepidation on this one. They did run the stops, as expected, and if it survives, this will be an excellent test of support to justify several pair of wellies. The daily chart, though, has bothered me for some time with that ugly rolling over appearance. We'll see how good my fundies really are in keeping me in this one. Last week I said I would be interested in this week's close.....this week I am a bit concerned. A USDJPY hold of 89 keeps me long on both.

Honestly, have we not tested this level enough, for God's sake!...
Honestly, have we not tested this level enough, for God's sake! Talk about falling knives......practically though, it is a good teaching point.....given the ominous closes the last 48 hours, a close relatively far from the low (PA in other words) would be perhaps the best go signal of the year given the market and the opportunity. Equally important, a failure here would cause me to pull out of some equities as well. So far it seems Strat's entry into the market at 126.50 has pushed things to the good, back over 127.

There IS cause for concern on the technicals.

Yesterday’s (Jan 21) drive down to support was different to the previous drives.

Both Nov 26 and Dec 17 bars to support were driven back by the buyers showing a strong defence of PRICE at 126.80.

Yesterday, there were no buyers defending that PRICE which may have been adrenalin rush from Banana’s Bank speech yesterday.

We do have some defence of it today but it looks more like profit taking to me

While the BOSS and BIG BOSS are both at support, their outlook is not that good.

Banana’s speech yesterday was a surprise which caught everyone off guard and clearly was never factored into PRICE. We need to see how the big boys shake this out before doing anything else.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,413
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:13am Jan 22, 2010 9:13am
Quoting Donadoney
Okay maybe. This trade was a little riskier than a stress free trade. I got out a little early BUT with nice profit. I am a bit of a chicken I admit, I will watch PA since the trendline is broken. I am very proud of this trade and it has helped my confidence a lot.
Okay maybe. This trade was a little riskier than a stress free trade.

Why? You went from Resistance to Support in an almost straight line?

I got out a little early BUT with nice profit.

Psycho 0.7100 is support so had you TP there you did a text book PASR trade.

I am a bit of a chicken I admit,

Better to be a chicken with profit than a Tiger with no home!

I am very proud of this trade and it has helped my confidence a lot.

So you should be – you did very good – but don’t get over confident – no walking on water!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,414
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:17am Jan 22, 2010 9:17am
Quoting pipmyride
A bit of a clue as to the short/medium term for the USD pairs ... hmm ...
Thanks Sherlock! Show us your BOSS and BIG BOSS!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,415
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:24am Jan 22, 2010 9:24am
Quoting Donadoney
No words for this really.
No words for this really.

Let me help you then!

Triple top of a range

BEEB at resistance

Close below the Green Line (see earlier posts)

All this adds up to CLASSIC PASR and lots (and lots) of luvly jubbly!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,416
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:25am Jan 22, 2010 9:25am
Thanks Razor and Strat!

I love the fact that this thread now is providing some education on Fundamentals along with PA.
  • #9,417
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:32am Jan 22, 2010 9:32am
Quoting Razorjack
Interesting situation, seems like all the major JPY crosses have run into key support areas.

USDJPY: Price bouncing around major psych level 90

AUDJPY: Price bouncing around psych level 81 and 50% Fib of swing from Nov 27 to Jan 11

NZDJPY: Prince bouncing off psych level 64 and 50% Fib of swing from Nov 27 to Jan 7

EURJPY: Prince bouncing off major psych level 127

GBPJPY: Price bouncing around psych level 145

CADJPY: Price bouncing around psych level 85 and 50% Fib of swing from...
After significant JPY strength yesterday,

Just shows how bad I am at this but wasn't it $USD weakness due to Banana's bank speech?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,418
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:59am Jan 22, 2010 9:59am
Quoting strat
After significant JPY strength yesterday,

Just shows how bad I am at this but wasn't it $USD weakness due to Banana's bank speech?
Hi Strat,

Actually you're not that far off. And perhaps JPY strength were the wrong words, risk aversion are probably more appropriate but the effect is the same: JPY appreciates

I've been there too and in the beginning I found funny-mentals to be a very good sleeping medication. However after I started learning this stuff, it's actually quite fun.

Did I just say funny mentals are fun? Damn I need to get a life ........

Ok, here's a simple little guide that will work for a while. Please note that if we see significant changes in the different countries, like Japan moving from an export based to a consumer based economy, then this guide will no longer be valid. The good news is that it will be quite some time before we see any sort of these changes.

Ok , markets usually are either in risk aversion or risk appetite modes. I'll use major currencies for simplicity

Risk Appetite:

Money flows from safe haven economies (i.e. USD, JPY) to higher risk economies (i.e. AUD, NZD)

Risk Aversion:

Money flows from high risk economies (i.e. AUD, NZD) to safe haven economies (i.e. USD, JPY). Now here's the interesting thing, Japan seems to be more "safer" than the US.

So in times of dramatic risk aversion, like the shock from the Banana speech, the USD will usually appreciate against AUD, NZD, GBP, CAD ....... but depreciates against JPY ....

Hope this made sense.
-Razorjack
  • #9,419
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:26am Jan 22, 2010 10:26am
Screwed up on USDJPY!

For those of the opinion I am a guru, wizard or can walk on water, I’m not. I’m just like the next guy that makes STUPID mistakes.

I must admit to being influenced by all this funny mentalist non technical talk going on and talked myself into believing that now would be a good time to start loading up on USDJPY in anticipation of the next trend.

Prior to all this talk, I wasn’t going to load up until we had a strong close above 94 but with the series of HHs and HLs and all this talk, I bought several lots at 91.11 with my SL at 90.00

This was my FIRST mistake! I don’t normally put my SL at round number psycho levels. I always (what happened this time then idiot?) put them between 10 and 20 pips away. I was so sure it would not be hit that I left it there! As it happens it would not have made a difference as my SL 20 pips away would have been taken out anyway.

My SECOND mistake was on my TP. When I am building positions in advance of a trend, I like to TP on a good portion of my lots for future equity and to keep the little people happy. Again, I don’t normally set my TP at round number psycho levels and usually (what happened this time then idiot?) have them 10 and 20 pips below my target. I set my TP at 92.00. Had I done what I normally do, I would have had these lots with profit at 91.80

Having set my SL and TP and in accordance with my PLAN, I left it to the market.

Since I am working on my charts all day (not for trading), I saw PRICE heading towards my first TP. Then next time I looked I saw blood where once there were greenbacks!

No problem though, I just let it do it’s thing.

At the NY close round up I saw PRICE had closed above my SL so “no worries mate” as my Oz friends tell me!

I was not unduly worried as I learned Banana had ripped in to the US Banks (probably in revenge for losing MassiveTwoShits) and this was just the $US Dollar weakness knee jerk reaction from that. My little people even told me it was OK and that we will get back on track when the Asians come in and start buying the green back again.

So, a bit of a wake up call for me this morning when I looked and saw that my SL was taken out on ALL my lots leaving me with a big hole where once there was green!

It’s just trading though and I took it on the chin but the pain felt as if I took it in my crown jewels!

It was only during my post mortem that I realized I had made mistakes and the loss was my fault, no-one else’s.

My mistakes were:

1) Being influenced by fundamental analysis
2) Incorrect TP placement
3) Incorrect SL placement.

As a result, I have made an appointment with the Holy Grail in front of the mirror where sparks WILL fly!

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,420
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:29am Jan 22, 2010 10:29am
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