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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 15,300 replies

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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Quoting el_duende
USD/JPY BUOB @ S/R

I have had a good day to so far EUR/GBP and EUR/USD did well....
Hi El Duende...Your statement about UJ in particular sound like my gremlins and demons. Sounds like me when I am not confident about my trade and not willing to take the risk. As I said please excuse me if I'm incorrect but as you can see today your analysis was correct but you were not.

Might I suggest demoing not so confident trades to build confidence or lowering R/R? I do this all the time and it helps. Hope I didn't overstep my bounds...
Quoting Alexandra
Actually, your point is well taken. One never ones to ride the nag in the stable. Closing a trade due to lack of action can be an excellent move. Re-entry can always occur.

I do agree with Razorjack in keeping my own positions open; however, in contrast, my own assessment sees the lack of JPY buying against USD as a supportive sign for USDJPY, as against the stock selloff, commodity selloff, and risk averse temperament in the market today and in the EU over the last week. That is a switch from the prior pattern, and supports the conjunctive...
Hi Alexandra,

Good call. My assessment is EXACTLY the same as yours, however I tend to go on and on and on and on ........ about the possible causes BEHIND commodities selloff, stock selloff, and short term risk aversion, like China looking to tighten it's monetary policy.

I do agree with Razorjack in keeping my own positions open; however, in contrast, my own assessment sees the lack of JPY buying against USD as a supportive sign for USDJPY, as against the stock selloff, commodity selloff, and risk averse temperament in the market today and in the EU over the last week.

So we are in agreement, however you just seem to say what I'm thinking much more elegantly.

I think I need some lessons in this department.
-Razorjack
Quoting el_duende
USD/JPY BUOB @ S/R


I have just closed it at break even as there was little movement on USD/JPY.

Bet you feel better about it now!
Quoting Alexandra
Bet you feel better about it now!
Lots of volatility today . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
The dollar and yen rose against most of their major counterparts after stocks fell as President Barack Obama proposed trading restrictions on financial institutions, discouraging demand for higher-yielding assets.

The U.S. currency appreciated versus the euro for a sixth straight day in the longest stretch of advances since October 2008. Sterling fell to a one-week low against the dollar as the U.K.’s budget deficit increased last month to the widest level for any December since records began in 1993.
Quoting Flem26
Lots of volatility today . . .
Yes, Obama's speech had a pretty big impact not only on the US stock markets, but caused a bit of a shock to the global markets.
-Razorjack
Quoting Razorjack
Yes, Obama's speech had a pretty big impact not only on the US stock markets, but caused a bit of a shock to the global markets.

Makes for an interesting day. I spell it "F A D E." No harm in waiting for the fallout though, in stress free fashion. If nothing else, one can enter (or re-enter!!) at a better price when the dust settles and the S/R levels dictate PA..
Strat, first of all, thank you for sharing your experience with us!

I have a little bit more than one year of experience with forex, but I haven't been trading in the last few months. All I managed in my trading career so far is to break even. I've been reading through J16's thread last year or a while, untill I had to leave trading because I couldn't dedicate more time to it.

I am back now, determined to keep learning and discovered your thread and your page. I just read through the first pages, and I'd like to post some charts with S&R lines, to see if I got it right. I did those today on EUR/USD.

Please, anybody feel free to comment or correct me.

So, starting on the BIG BOSS chart, I drew the ones that looked obvious to me:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Checking it on the bar chart, it looks fine so far:

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Down to the BOSS chart, to add more SR lines:

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Finally, on the daily chart, to add the last levels:

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So, it seems that the price is on a pretty strong SR line right now, which also lines up with various fibo levels. If it finished forming the hammer and breaks up, I'd expect it to go 1.4240. If it keeps dropping, the next station would be around 1.38.

Comments please....
Quoting Blackeagle
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=9286
Would you wait for a break of the bosses most recent LL to confirm the trend reversal?
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Quoting faces

[...]

So, it seems that the price is on a pretty strong SR line right now, which also lines up with various fibo levels. If it finished forming the hammer and breaks up, I'd expect it to go 1.4240. If it keeps dropping, the next station would be around 1.38.

Comments please....
Hey faces,

Your process of adding lines is allrtight imo, just be careful not to add too many lines, it will confuse you. I know it does confuse me when I'm over-zealous in adding SR levels...

I also have euro sitting on a strong Weekly SR level, the day isnt finished yet but if it does end as a Hammer be careful if you enter long. To me it looks like the trend might have changed, so I'd move to BE or tighten the stop the moment the first Daily resistance is met, 1.424 in my feed.

I am monitoring its sister pair, USDCHF, a double top on Daily and the uptrend is not as strong as the downtrend on euro. But the day isnt finished yet so at this point is just speculation...

Cheers,
-soso
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
Quoting soso
Your process of adding lines is allrtight imo, just be careful not to add too many lines, it will confuse you. I know it does confuse me when I'm over-zealous in adding SR levels...
Thanks soso. I was actually trying not to add too many lines and I was wondering if I should go more into detail.

Quoting soso
I also have euro sitting on a strong Weekly SR level, the day isnt finished yet but if it does end as a Hammer be careful if you enter long. To me it looks like the trend might have changed, so I'd move to BE or tighten the stop the moment the first Daily resistance is met, 1.424 in my feed.
IF I go long, I would get out at 1.4240, not trying to do anything more fancy than that. But it looks like it's gonna close as a pretty nice indecision bar with large shadows on both sides. I see blood all over the battlefield and both sides look exhausted. Maybe better to just watch it from a distance and see who recovers first from the battle.

Will check out USD/CHF later!

faces
This is the 2nd step on the long trade. I've moved my SL to BE. I see no reason to put it close to the price as the price is getting closer to psycho 1.600. I'm waiting until tomorrow close.

Right now the trade is stress free
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Quoting hcristea
This is the 2nd step on the long trade. I've moved my SL to BE. I see no reason to put it close to the price as the price is getting closer to psycho 1.600. I'm waiting until tomorrow close.

Right now the trade is stress free
Good job.

Had you traded 2 lots you could have taken profit at where PRICE is at now (minor R) on one and then as you have done, move your SL to break even so that your 2nd lot is a FREE trade. This way you get to bank some profits to keep the little guys happy!

Something to think about next time but good job anyway!
13 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
Quoting Alexandra
Bet you feel better about it now!
It feels good knowing I didnt lose money and made right choice. Think it best if the trade doesnt feel right then best to close as it certainly not stress free
Quoting el_duende
It feels good knowing I didnt lose money and made right choice. Think it best if the trade doesnt feel right then best to close as it certainly not stress free
Everytime - IF IN DOUBT - GET OUT!
13 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
No respect for BOSS TL!
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13 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
Thanks Strat!

I've tested that too before PASR, to split the position into 2 or 3 trades and using Take Profit. After running tests, I've noticed that using a TP was limiting my profits actually.

Now that i'm learning and trading PASR, I'm taking notes to see how i can optimize the trade management. But this might take awhile since I dont take so many trades now.

Do you use this technique to split a trade in 2 and take a partial profit at certain targets?
Alexandra will be filling her wellies!
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13 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
Quoting strat
Alexandra will be filling her wellies!

LOL - Even I have some trepidation on this one. They did run the stops, as expected, and if it survives, this will be an excellent test of support to justify several pair of wellies. The daily chart, though, has bothered me for some time with that ugly rolling over appearance. We'll see how good my fundies really are in keeping me in this one. Last week I said I would be interested in this week's close.....this week I am a bit concerned. A USDJPY hold of 89 keeps me long on both.

Honestly, have we not tested this level enough, for God's sake! Talk about falling knives......practically though, it is a good teaching point.....given the ominous closes the last 48 hours, a close relatively far from the low (PA in other words) would be perhaps the best go signal of the year given the market and the opportunity. Equally important, a failure here would cause me to pull out of some equities as well. So far it seems Strat's entry into the market at 126.50 has pushed things to the good, back overr 127.
  • Post #9,400
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  • Edited Jan 22, 2010 2:35am Jan 21, 2010 8:48pm | Edited Jan 22, 2010 2:35am
Quoting Alexandra
LOL - Even I have some trepidation on this one. They did run the stops, as expected, and if it survives, this will be an excellent test of support to justify several pair of wellies. The daily chart, though, has bothered me for some time with that ugly rolling over appearance. We'll see how good my fundies really are in keeping me in this one. Last week I said I would be interested in this week's close.....this week I am a bit concerned. A USDJPY hold of 89 keeps me long on both.

Honestly, have we not tested this level enough, for God's sake!...
Yeah, this one's a bit tough, especially with all the speculation in the last few days:

1. Will China change it's monetary and fiscal policies?
2. Obama's crackdown on big banks and "excessive risk taking"
3. US senate considering tighter control over the Fed

Paints a pretty gloomy picture doesn't it?

So let's see if the USDJPY psych level 90 holds, if it does I'll be looking to add more. Should be an interesting end to the week though.
-Razorjack
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