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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #5,661
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:10am Jan 20, 2010 11:10am
Quoting bartstop
It's a long ways down to 138. Got a few pips protected. Gonna let it ride. Let's see what happens.


Bartstop
Decided to play it safe. I pulled a retracement fib on the 4 hour. Target was just hit at 1.4083. +97 pips.
  • #5,662
  • Jan 20, 2010 12:07pm Jan 20, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting bartstop
Ok Ed, this is my understanding of the TK method. I don't usually trade this pair put I see one setting up.

The first chart shows the AUDJPY Daily chart. As you can see we are currently in a down trend. So we will be looking for shorts. Right?

The second chart is the hourly. See the high at circle 1? Price is turning direction and heading back down. You put your 100 line there.

Circle 2 is a retracement of the down move. Line up the high of that retracement with the 61.8 line. To the pip.

Circle 3 is confirmation that this is a valid fib....
Appreciate the clarity buddy! Unfortunately, I have to go to work now, so this is gonna have to wait. I'll get back to you on this!

ed
  • #5,663
  • Edited 2:33pm Jan 20, 2010 12:56pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting edkilp
As an aside, using Compass's technique, what do you look for after a candle completes and today isn't over yet? Example, when you fib yesterdays aud/usd, price retraced to 76.4 level, hovered there for a few hours then plummeted to well below -161.8. What now? If I missed that trade, what am I waiting for now? Do I need to wait for the day to end, move my fib and start over? Bear with me folks.

ed
Ed, now you need to wait until a new day starts. I believe you are in the eastern timezone, so that should be at 7 tonight for you. Then draw your fib on the high/low of today (1/20). Then when price crosses the 0 line, go short. If it crosses the 100 line, go long. Of course that is if you have your fib drawn with 100 on the top and 0 on the bottom. Once price hits either 138 line, you are done for the day.

You can also think about this as a daily box breakout method. See the chart below.

There's a little more to trading this method but this is the basic set up.

Hope this helps.


Bartstop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,664
  • Edited 4:17pm Jan 20, 2010 4:04pm | Edited 4:17pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I think I'll stick to Monopoly money for now mate. I went short AUD at .9101, could be the straw that breaks the camels back.

MD.
My short went about 30 pips up while I was on my way home, missed them though. I noticed kiwi retails sales were out tonight which I thought had a chance to be stronger so I stuck a trailing stop on my Aud. They were good and Aud got dragged up in sympathy. Only got 7 pips on that one. Couple of bottles worth of jack daniels I suppose.
Keep smiling
  • #5,665
  • Jan 20, 2010 4:36pm Jan 20, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting Misterdaz
My short went about 30 pips up while I was on my way home, missed them though. I noticed kiwi retails sales were out tonight which I thought had a chance to be stronger so I stuck a trailing stop on my Aud. They were good and Aud got dragged up in sympathy. Only got 7 pips on that one. Couple of bottles worth of jack daniels I suppose.
Until that pair decides which way it's going, I'm staying out. Look at what it did all last year. If we get a couple weeks of that, I'll be all over it.


Bartstop
  • #5,666
  • Jan 20, 2010 9:36pm Jan 20, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting bartstop
Ok Ed, this is my understanding of the TK method. I don't usually trade this pair put I see one setting up.

The first chart shows the AUDJPY Daily chart. As you can see we are currently in a down trend. So we will be looking for shorts. Right?

The second chart is the hourly. See the high at circle 1? Price is turning direction and heading back down. You put your 100 line there.

Circle 2 is a retracement of the down move. Line up the high of that retracement with the 61.8 line. To the pip.

Circle 3 is confirmation that this is a valid fib....
Chaps this is where we are going eventually... how we get there... well we track price. I don't see the reason to trade this pair. I recommend stick to EU GU GY you will find your favourite in there and dime to dollars it should be GY.

Also Djia just signalled into the twelves. if ye find yourself hunting for trades... you are making a bloody mistake. All good things come to those who wait.

TK
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  • #5,667
  • Jan 20, 2010 9:53pm Jan 20, 2010 9:53pm
Does this look good to you? I hope so, I'm leveraged up.


Bartstop
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  • #5,668
  • Edited 1:58am Jan 21, 2010 12:35am | Edited 1:58am
With a clear break of the 100 and a bounce off the outside of that level, I'm aiming for the USDJPY to hit the 92.0 mark (or the 91.77 mark which is where the 138 fib extension is) sometime today. It will probably get there slowly and drag the other JPY pairs with it.

Fingers crossed

UPDATE: USDJPY successfully bounced as anticipated. Looking at EURUSD to attack 1.4000 .....
UPDATE2: Placed my stops a magical number of 3 pips away from the 100 daily fib of the USDJPY. Not suspecting the price to drop to 91.43. If my stops get hunted, I will not lose a few pips.
  • #5,669
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:00am Jan 21, 2010 2:00am
Zero line Break Time for me to Sell
  • #5,670
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:22am Jan 21, 2010 2:22am
Quoting Checkz
Zero line Break Time for me to Sell
Where are you aiming?
I'm only going for the 138 retrace near 1.6200 , cause I hear talk of 1.6300 expiries today.
  • #5,671
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:31am Jan 21, 2010 2:31am
Quoting Naynay
Where are you aiming?
I'm only going for the 138 retrace near 1.6200 , cause I hear talk of 1.6300 expiries today.
Me too im out at 1.382
  • #5,672
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:40am Jan 21, 2010 2:40am
Quoting Checkz
Me too im out at 1.382
Target juuust about hit....
I think the GBPUSD is going to go lower thanks to breaking the 50 of the weekly candle as well. We may want to jump aboard for that one...

The EURUSD is seriously going to hit 1.4000 sometime in the near future. Not sure when exactly, but I wouldn't be buying any EURUSD for a while yet.
  • #5,673
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:47am Jan 21, 2010 2:47am
I can't wait to get home and see how many pips I made in profit
  • #5,674
  • Jan 21, 2010 3:04am Jan 21, 2010 3:04am
Yeah, this pair has a long way to go yet before it pops, methinks.

Watch them round numbers and price flips folks.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #5,675
  • Edited 3:57am Jan 21, 2010 3:07am | Edited 3:57am
Oh heck, I left pips on the table again.

You're seeing Daily candle fibs vs Weekly candle fibs....
Guess where our next level of support is?
Guess where we enter another short from?

UPDATE:... geez, it crashed through 1.6160 already. I think perhaps a small retrace is in order before the inevitable move down. (or maybe not... what would I know at this point?). I think there'd be a fair bit or pressure to wait until tomorrow to smash it through. The GBPUSD already cleared out the 1.61 today.
Attached Image
  • #5,676
  • Jan 21, 2010 3:56am Jan 21, 2010 3:56am
I grabbed a quick 35 pips but it was not moving any further yet, and H1 has too much noise for my liking.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #5,677
  • Edited 4:33am Jan 21, 2010 4:32am | Edited 4:33am
Question for everyone here... Was this a valid trade (going long on the 100 break)? Any idea why it went bad? Granted, I suppose it's still in play but I don't feel very good about it at this point...

Looking at Daily and Weekly charts I don't see any reason for it to go down further but who knows... Any insight is appreciated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,678
  • Jan 21, 2010 5:33am Jan 21, 2010 5:33am
Quoting sat0pi
Question for everyone here... Was this a valid trade (going long on the 100 break)? Any idea why it went bad? Granted, I suppose it's still in play but I don't feel very good about it at this point...

Looking at Daily and Weekly charts I don't see any reason for it to go down further but who knows... Any insight is appreciated.
I'll tell you the way I see it.
1. You go against the major trend.
2.break out trades on 100 breaks are dangerous because by the time you get in ;the trade may run out of steam.It's better to get in at the pull back when mkt. test the inner fib levels.
  • #5,679
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:03am Jan 21, 2010 7:03am
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  • #5,680
  • Jan 21, 2010 8:16am Jan 21, 2010 8:16am
There's us all fumbling around in the dark trying to work Thom out and you are happy cashing in with the Compass. Must be your round.

MD.
Keep smiling
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