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GBP/USD Real-time Sentiment

  • #41
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:03pm Jan 15, 2010 9:03pm
Idea: can you re-denominate some of the data, ie. drop some of the initial data, so the current data are not so scrunched up?

This might reset the zero line (ie. bring it up closer to current sentiment). Maybe you can set it so it only reflects the last week of data, ie. continually drop the data longer than a week old.

I see not everyone is convinced this is a trend reverse in price:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99926&page=209
  • #42
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:08pm Jan 15, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting bit9ret
Idea: can you re-denominate some of the data, ie. drop some of the initial data, so the current data are not so scrunched up?

This might reset the zero line (ie. bring it up closer to current sentiment). Maybe you can set it so it only reflects the last week of data, ie. continually drop the data longer than a week old.

I see not everyone is convinced this is a trend reverse in price:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99926&page=209
I could have it so it shows like the last X number of hours or something. I'll work on that. Thanks for the suggestion.

LOL yeah I've noticed a lot of people while GU was climbing up saying it was going to crash. Looking at the Sentiment... it doesn't look like it. Aren't the US markets closed Monday? I'm guessing GU at least continues upward from Sunday - Tuesday unless Sentiment changes drastically.
  • #43
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:21pm Jan 15, 2010 9:21pm
Maybe two windows would add value*:

1) a one week window and

2) a 1 day window (thinking here of the news cycle being one day and FX being a 24 hour market). It'll take some folks/actors in the market a day to reassess new info. (re portfolio adjustment, pension fund committee meetings etc., take time, creating the trends, etc.)

The 1 week/1 day windows would essentially be 1 week/day moving averages. Solves the problem of not being able to actually put an MA on the window (and dropping the old data puts the sentiment index nearer the zero line for a turn).

Might show some of the dynamics.

* LOL without Occam rolling over in his grave (re "multiplying entities" needlessly).
  • #44
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:44am Jan 16, 2010 8:44am
Quoting bit9ret
Maybe two windows would add value*:

1) a one week window and

2) a 1 day window (thinking here of the news cycle being one day and FX being a 24 hour market). It'll take some folks/actors in the market a day to reassess new info. (re portfolio adjustment, pension fund committee meetings etc., take time, creating the trends, etc.)

The 1 week/1 day windows would essentially be 1 week/day moving averages....
For the 1 week window... should I display an entire week of data of something like the last 24 hours?
  • #45
  • Jan 16, 2010 2:15pm Jan 16, 2010 2:15pm
Entire week's data would be good vs. another window with 24 hours.
  • #46
  • Jan 16, 2010 3:34pm Jan 16, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting bit9ret
Entire week's data would be good vs. another window with 24 hours.
ok cool

yeah I'm definitely going to have to try and figure out how I can earn some revenue off of this in order to add more charts... I currently have 1 server performing the calculations and collecting ticks. It can only handle one more image render with its current specs.
  • #47
  • Jan 17, 2010 9:51pm Jan 17, 2010 9:51pm
Sorry it looks like I kinda messed up the image lol... i'll fix it eventually..

but check it out! GU went up! =)
  • #48
  • Jan 20, 2010 2:12pm Jan 20, 2010 2:12pm
Very interesting project indeed. I'm not sure how to read the graph though...guess there might currently be an error? (see attached screenshot).

How many different input sources are you currently using to generate the sentiment?

I know that Oanda and Dukascopy has sentiment indexes on their websites - might be possible to pull of some info from it with a bit of creativity (useful?...who knows?).

Also, what about scanning IFR Markets News? (http://www.ifrmarkets.com)
You might be able to get their forex news feed for free from Oanda or another broker. If I was going to make a similar project, one of the first things I would do would definitely be to try to index/quantify what these guys are writing about.
Attached Image
  • #49
  • Jan 20, 2010 8:19pm Jan 20, 2010 8:19pm
Yeah there's an error... I haven't gotten around to fixing it yet because of school, but I'll try and get to it this weekend. So far I'm only using twitter and user input on the site. I'm planning on creating a separate feed and adding in as many sources as I possibly can to compare the two.

Quantifying what actual analysts say can be tough, but I'm thinking creating a filter of some sort could work where I could create a program that filters their article for key words usually associated with bullish or bearish sentiment and figure out if a bias exists from that.

btw, the chart still kinda works lol the sentiment and time is just shifted to the left. I think the weekend gap is what caused it to mess up so I might stop the feed over weekends which would also create a sentiment gap when the markets open lol
  • #50
  • Jan 21, 2010 5:49pm Jan 21, 2010 5:49pm
Quoting BlackMage
Very interesting project indeed. I'm not sure how to read the graph though...guess there might currently be an error? (see attached screenshot).

How many different input sources are you currently using to generate the sentiment?

I know that Oanda and...
BM, I've done both Oanda (mechanically) and IFR (with a painful amount of discretion), though granted IFR is for only a few months so far. Both have their interesting results but I can guarantee both would contaminate the results Moforce is getting here.

A sentiment reading compared to an order flow reading are two very different fishes. As such, Mo - I'm still surprised you're seeing a positive correlation between sentiment predominantly off Twitter, unless there's a lag between thought and action...
It'll be interesting to see in a month's time or so once you've seen some negatives too.
  • #51
  • Jan 22, 2010 7:38pm Jan 22, 2010 7:38pm
looks like we might be seeing negatives =) sentiment has been dropping for the past 60hours+ now and it looks like the dropping is gaining momentum. If this momentum keeps up, we should see 1.5XXX in no time at all

it looks like adding some kind of MA line would help determine direction and turning points
  • #52
  • Last Post: Jan 24, 2010 9:15am Jan 24, 2010 9:15am
hmm that's odd, after a steep fall in sentiment we're now seeing a rise... retracement perhaps? rofl
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