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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #9,241
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:11pm Jan 19, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting RussiaTrader
@razor trader

in life there are always two flipcoin sides, namely good&intelligent postings and destroying postings.

like in trading,there are wins and losses.

but this is not a reason to throw in the towel and stop trading nor a reason to stop reading and discussing this thread.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,242
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:27pm Jan 19, 2010 3:27pm
razorboy; Thanks for the recent posts.Its amazing whats been staring you in the face is so obvious when you know how.Thanks again.
  • #9,243
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:38pm Jan 19, 2010 3:38pm
once you get it in your head that trading is about the probablities and pay off factors associated with a particular set up and or methodology, the rest becomes easy.

It getting to the point of identifying high probability set ups and creating a methodology of it that takes a bit of time.

I am sure you could probably build some additional filters (ie only go long if price is up for the month/week etc ) in to this method to improve your probabilities and I may do that depending on the results of the trial
  • #9,244
  • Jan 19, 2010 8:44pm Jan 19, 2010 8:44pm
So can someone clear up how to set up the opening time? I read through and was confused a little bit
  • #9,245
  • Jan 19, 2010 10:54pm Jan 19, 2010 10:54pm
what was confusing about it.

Quoting Maverick731
So can someone clear up how to set up the opening time? I read through and was confused a little bit
  • #9,246
  • Edited 11:28pm Jan 19, 2010 10:57pm | Edited 11:28pm
getting help wih it now, have a problem because charting is outsourced from the feed

edit: this is what ticks me off confusing time zone stuff. I'm using gain, their new daily candle forms at 5pm est supposedly, dunno how to use that information. Aggrivating as heck, I understand the methodology but can't get the right timing down
  • #9,247
  • Jan 20, 2010 12:43am Jan 20, 2010 12:43am
Original DIBS method has nothing to do with DAILY candles, dont confuse that with the "open time of a day". Its just a made up time that "day opens", because in reality, day never opens, forex is 24/5. The opening time what this method talks about is the 6 GMT time. Why that time? Its couple hours before London markets open! If you cant figure what time 6 GMT is in your local time, sorry cant help you
  • #9,248
  • Jan 20, 2010 1:29am Jan 20, 2010 1:29am
Quoting Maverick731
getting help wih it now, have a problem because charting is outsourced from the feed

edit: this is what ticks me off confusing time zone stuff. I'm using gain, their new daily candle forms at 5pm est supposedly, dunno how to use that information. Aggrivating as heck, I understand the methodology but can't get the right timing down

Yes it can be confusing. You're not the first here to have trouble. The trouble with quoting GMT is that here in the UK we only use GMT for 6 months. In the summer we move on 1 hour to British Summer Time.

So, johto is right. You just need to know what time it is in London and there are a lot of websites that will tell you this. Peter Crowns' strategy starts 2 hours before the London open at 8am and the direction is set by midnight to 6am London time.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,249
  • Jan 20, 2010 1:35am Jan 20, 2010 1:35am
Quoting smikester
Yes it can be confusing.
I just realised:

On Forex Factory home page, top left hand corner, are links to session start times. As long as you have Forex Factory synchronised to your time i.e. the time next to your name is correct, you can't go wrong.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,250
  • Jan 20, 2010 1:15pm Jan 20, 2010 1:15pm
still a little confusing lol, even with FF because london opens at 3am for me. (EST on DST)

So 6:00 GMT for EST currently right now is....1am my time?
  • #9,251
  • Edited 2:24pm Jan 20, 2010 2:11pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting Maverick731
still a little confusing lol, even with FF because london opens at 3am for me. (EST on DST)

So 6:00 GMT for EST currently right now is....1am my time?

Maverick, that is correct, 6:00 GMT is 1am US eastern.

this from the first post on the thread

"Peter:
"I use 00:00 CST or 06:00 GMT as my open. Believe me, if you are off 1 hour due to Daylight Savings time it is not going to be a problem."

And another quote from Peter-

The opening time is as I stated: GMT 06:00 or EST 01:00.

For anyone still reading this link for DIBS info:

If you have some extremely good reason (like tons of intraday data going back 35 years, and statistical variance maps that indicate something I haven't discovered already---) that indicates a different time for starting your trading day, please go ahead and use it. That will be your own little edge.

Otherwise, you might just want to try using the above mentioned starting time.

Thanks -bluefox- for stimulating a clarification.

-PeterCrowns-

cheers
geoff
  • #9,252
  • Jan 20, 2010 2:16pm Jan 20, 2010 2:16pm
That is a tough call. I know some US traders stay up late into the night to play the London open because I sometimes talk to them when I get up at 5.30 - 6am UK time
Gone to a better place
  • #9,253
  • Jan 20, 2010 6:53pm Jan 20, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting smikester
Peter Crowns' strategy starts 2 hours before the London open at 8am and the direction is set by midnight to 6am London time.
My reading of Peter's posts was that the direction in which to take the breakout was determined by whether the breakout was above or below the open at 6am GMT? This would roughly be the open of his calendar day too - I can't remember if he is CST or EST - but this is coincidental.

This would seem to make sense as when more money comes into the market it is more likely to drive the direction.

I tested this out (this is one advantage of automated backtesting) by varying the open time (but not the time at which to start trading which remains at 6am) from midnight GMT through to 6am.

Regards,
Timek
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  • #9,254
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:14am Jan 21, 2010 1:14am
Quoting Timek
My reading of Peter's posts was that the direction in which to take the breakout was determined by whether the breakout was above or below the open at 6am GMT? This would roughly be the open of his calendar day too - I can't remember if he is CST or EST - but this is coincidental.
Read them again. Here's a link and don't forget London's "day" starts at midnight UK time. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=23

Here's another link. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=42

I know lots of traders who stay up 1 am to 3 am EST because London is important. The New York session is often a fubar because of Europe (London is a part of Europe after all) squaring off.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,255
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:13am Jan 21, 2010 6:13am
i don't know if anyone uses this but this could very vaulable in trading this method. the tradable rates at fxstreet.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts...e-rates/?id=11

i wonder if the data used there can be made to make an indicator just like the FF news indicator?? that way we have it on our charts below in an indicator window for whos % change is lower and higher than one another.

right now as i type, the ERU/GBP and the GBP/AUD are exact opposites of each other almost if you line them up by rate of change.
  • #9,256
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:16am Jan 21, 2010 6:16am
what exactly were you testing here?


Quoting Timek
My reading of Peter's posts was that the direction in which to take the breakout was determined by whether the breakout was above or below the open at 6am GMT? This would roughly be the open of his calendar day too - I can't remember if he is CST or EST - but this is coincidental.

This would seem to make sense as when more money comes into the market it is more likely to drive the direction.

I tested this out (this is one advantage of automated backtesting) by varying the open time (but not the time at which to start trading which remains at...
  • #9,257
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:55am Jan 21, 2010 9:55am
Quoting Sauron
Well, I've tested the last 4 years of AUDUSD Daily IB with SMA20 for trailing.
If one would risk 1% per trade, he would have won:

2009 +4%
2008 +18%
2007 +5%
2006 +3%

The VERY BIG PROBLEM: you have one IB in average every year which makes you profitable at the end of it. If, for any reason, you don't take that IB (vacation, illness, no internet connection, broker feed etc) you'll finish the year with a loss.
Now, even if your EA takes all the signals the profit is too small to make a living if you have less than 2 million to start with. And...
I would guess that if you reduce your risk to say 0.3% or 0.5% the results would improve heavily....
  • #9,258
  • Edited Jan 22, 2010 12:42am Jan 21, 2010 7:36pm | Edited Jan 22, 2010 12:42am
Quoting smikester
Read them again. Here's a link and don't forget London's "day" starts at midnight UK time. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=23

Here's another link. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=42

I know lots of traders who stay up 1 am to 3 am EST because London is important. The New York session is often a fubar because of Europe (London is a part of Europe after all) squaring off.
Hi smikester,

I think my understanding stems from the use of "on the day" as in:

Only be willing to buy a market if it is up on the day.
Only be willing to sell a market if it is down on the day.

I understood this to mean the trading day, i.e. from 6am GMT for the next 6-10 hours (time period depending on which of his posts you read).

I double-checked his chart from 31 Mar 2008 (for EURUSD) and confirmed that his Oanda charts are in either US CST or EST and therefore his white dotted lines cover the 24hours from 6am GMT.

The point I was trying to make was that if he lived in a CST zone then his start of "calendar day" would co-incide with his "trading day" (i.e. 00:00 CST vs 06:00 GMT). This would mean that when he talks of start of "calendar day" (CST) he is also means his "trading day" (from 6am CST).

This alongside my backtesting will cause me to continue to compare my breakouts with the 6am GMT open...

I also live in the UK (in London) so am well aware of when the "calendar day" starts according to UK time. Additionally the fact that traders stay up from 1am to 3am EST (6am until 9am) to trade does not affect the opening time used to determine the trend. I think we both agree that Peter meant the 6-10 hours from 6am GMT as the "trading day". Correct me if I'm wrong.

It all just goes to show how the same set of rules can mean different things to different people! This all works in the favour of the determined.

Thanks for your reply.

Regards,
Timek
  • #9,259
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:43pm Jan 21, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting razorboy
what exactly were you testing here?
Hi Razorboy,

I was testing the relative effect of comparing the breakout (above or below the previous Inside Bar) with the "open of the day for trend determination purposes" (varying it from midnight GMT to 6am). This does not affect the window in which I placed trades (between 6am GMT and 4pm GMT).

Note that I also checked the breakout was above/below the 30bar (hourly bars) MA before placing the stop order.

The exercise was more about the relative comparison rather than the absolute values achieved - which would require far more detail.

Hope this answers your question and thanks for asking.

Regards,
Timek
  • #9,260
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:50pm Jan 21, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting ekling
I would guess that if you reduce your risk to say 0.3% or 0.5% the results would improve heavily....
Hi ekling,

My guess would be that reducing the risk in this case will also decrease the results (depending on what you mean by "results" and whether that is favourable - CAGR%, max drawdown, MAR etc).

However if you added 3 more (preferably not positively correlated) currencies and kept the overall risk the same (assuming by risk you mean "risk per trade") - e.g. 0.25% per market - then the results would improve.

Regards,
Timek
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