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EURUSD

  • #182,821
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:17am Jan 20, 2010 11:17am
I wouldn't be going long just yet. The carpet has been pulled from underneath the euro and there is some further downside. According to my interpretation, the trend is now down and the high probability trade is selling at the resistance level. I try to avoid trading against the trend.
http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/7608/euror.th.gif


The US dollar index is playing around with the 200 SMA. If we close above that then I'd say with 90% probability that we have a new uptrend for the dollar. At least for the time being. Robert Prechter will surely open a bottle of champagne as he can claim victory in front of all the people that he has sold his BS research to. But in the long run, the dollar should still go down. Don't be your money on it for today, though.
http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/9594/usdx.th.gif
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #182,822
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:17am Jan 20, 2010 11:17am
Quoting Fly2
got my long @ 91 on the nose now time to
Just don't get greedy and you should be fine.
  • #182,823
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:18am Jan 20, 2010 11:18am
Quoting tradertom
long - based on...?

sorry
minor correction/overall bias short though to 13800 area
  • #182,824
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:19am Jan 20, 2010 11:19am
Seems again a problem with greece.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #182,825
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:19am Jan 20, 2010 11:19am
Quoting bug
I wouldn't be going long just yet. The carpet has been pulled from underneath the euro and there is some further downside. According to my interpretation, the trend is now down and the high probability trade is selling at the resistance level. I try to avoid trading against the trend.
http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/7608/euror.th.gif


The US dollar index is playing around with the 200 SMA. If we close above that then I'd say with 90% probability that we have a new uptrend for...
well from what i heard from my news feeds huge SL's below are waiting from BIG ass PLayers if those triggered that will provide some up trends.
  • #182,826
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:20am Jan 20, 2010 11:20am
Quoting Munal
True and in 1 hour TF i have 1.4066 area as 161.8 % of FIBO, which will be good support for EU, a bounce can be expected before completing AB=CD pattern in Daily.............
Some correction is soon due.. I am bit surprised how moderate the retraces has been this far. On another note, in a strong bear mood like this, key levels are easily broken. History usually repeat itself.
  • #182,827
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:20am Jan 20, 2010 11:20am
1.4090 is holding up (38.2% fib), lets see if the daily fib can sustain price up. . .
The market will deceive you. Make your own judgement.
  • #182,828
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:21am Jan 20, 2010 11:21am
Quoting kilalik
well from what i heard from my news feeds huge SL's below are waiting from BIG ass PLayers if those triggered that will provide some up trends.
Don't believe the hype. Believe the PA. Do you honestly believe that Big Players would really allow their true strategies and thoughts to be known to the public at large? If they did so...they would not make money, or at least not make nearly as much. Smoke and mirrors, my friend.
  • #182,829
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:22am Jan 20, 2010 11:22am
Support of EU .......

Quoting Munal
True and in 1 hour TF i have 1.4066 area as 161.8 % of FIBO, which will be good support for EU, a bounce can be expected before completing AB=CD pattern in Daily.............
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  • #182,830
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:23am Jan 20, 2010 11:23am
Quoting No Stress
Seems again a problem with greece.

I can only hear greece since days - must go there on holiday again
  • #182,831
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:25am Jan 20, 2010 11:25am
Quoting tradertom
ok ok - long for 5 pips


just kidding...
hope so - have one long since 4105
I'm looking to 250/270 then short
  • #182,832
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:26am Jan 20, 2010 11:26am
hope it could be the first green candle since 8 hours !

(1h chart)
  • #182,833
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:26am Jan 20, 2010 11:26am
Quoting kilalik
well from what i heard from my news feeds huge SL's below are waiting from BIG ass PLayers if those triggered that will provide some up trends.
Luckily for me, I don't have that kind of news feed confusing me. Based on your previous experience, have you been able to make pips with that sort of news? And who is the source for that? Your broker?
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #182,834
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:34am Jan 20, 2010 11:34am
Up to now, it was only 9 pips before my SL. If caught, means i was wrong, then next trading will be tomorrow with new analysis. If right, my TP will be touched and we will enter in a new range from 1.4079 to 1.4370 for a month. We will see.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #182,835
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:34am Jan 20, 2010 11:34am
Quoting kilalik
well from what i heard from my news feeds huge SL's below are waiting from BIG ass PLayers if those triggered that will provide some up trends.
Also-do you mean buy stops or stoplosses? A stoploss doesn't work that way; in fact, hitting stoplosses would actually add to the selling momentum as the positions would be sold at that price to liquidate. The addition of momentum is why large players hunt stops in the first place - to gain momentum.
  • #182,836
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:34am Jan 20, 2010 11:34am
For the brave: long @ around 1.41
SL 1.408 and TP 1.414

reason: we just broker out of todays smaller channel
  • #182,837
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:35am Jan 20, 2010 11:35am
Quoting bug
Luckily for me, I don't have that kind of news feed confusing me. Based on your previous experience, have you been able to make pips with that sort of news? And who is the source for that? Your broker?
no but i always have in mind those type of stops and u tellin me that i'm wrong at this time, i'm long on retrace not on the whole thing,
so 15 pips in green is not that bad if i exit out now...

the possiblity os temporary bulls was just much greater than further down after hittin such key points ohh ya in one day, and i will reverse when i'm comfortable with it... happy trading, not a single loss today on my part.
  • #182,838
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:36am Jan 20, 2010 11:36am
china is tightening credit is why eu falls. it went up with commodities and will fall with commodities. no secret sauce. since commodities are pegged to usd when they fall usd rises. nothing more. china has been stocking up on commodities for over 12 months. so they have at least a 12 month supply of commodities. they are putting a knife in the heart of their competition europe. europe does not have commodities. europe will have to buy raw materials at todays prices. sure commodities will fall, but so will euro purchasing power. china is full of a cheap stock pile of commodities. they will make crap and sell it to u.s. with a higher usd. they will also sell it to europe/japan and undercut their exports. when china runs low on commodities it will lossen credit and drive eu higher (new cycle). by that time lots of industry will be gone. they will do this till they are stopped. they have cheap labor and low social cost unlike u.s., europe, or japan. read the writting on the wall. in the end they will have all the usd, yen, and euros. they will buy and own your industry and countrys. unless
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #182,839
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:36am Jan 20, 2010 11:36am
Evening all,

I'm still short from 1.4489 - will post a trade review video when i exit the position. If you have any questions about entry / exit's please contact me before so I can cover them in the review.

Cheers WG
  • #182,840
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:37am Jan 20, 2010 11:37am
Quoting PriceVolume
Also-do you mean buy stops or stoplosses? A stoploss doesn't work that way; in fact, hitting stoplosses would actually add to the selling momentum as the positions would be sold at that price to liquidate. The addition of momentum is why large players hunt stops in the first place - to gain momentum.
it could do both and it has... think what you believe but always remember there are more than 2 sides to market, and possiblities infinite it can jump 40 pips in 1 minute but will it.... and if you think i'm wrong thats ok it works for me either way.
To answer your questtions i mean both traders usually pic numbers that end with 4,5,6 so any 417(4,5,6) and naturally the famous 0's... we had bunch of those today during European session
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