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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #14,461
  • Jan 18, 2010 11:04pm Jan 18, 2010 11:04pm
I'm currently bearish on USDJPY, holding a short from 90.936. On the weekly chart we can see two attempted breaks of the 50% fib level on the long move down that both failed and since then we are heading south indicating to me that the bearish trend is still intact and that we will see further moves to the downside for the pair in the coming weeks.

Near-term targets are 90.337 (which we are nearing as I type this), 90.042, and 89.284.
  • #14,462
  • Jan 18, 2010 11:20pm Jan 18, 2010 11:20pm
i think buy at .35
  • #14,463
  • Jan 18, 2010 11:36pm Jan 18, 2010 11:36pm
I think today all the way below 90.00 and start of the downtrend.
Where there is a will there is a way...
  • #14,464
  • Jan 18, 2010 11:38pm Jan 18, 2010 11:38pm
http://i46.tinypic.com/2rm8cpw.jpg
  • #14,465
  • Jan 18, 2010 11:45pm Jan 18, 2010 11:45pm
http://i47.tinypic.com/ke67gz.jpg
  • #14,466
  • Jan 18, 2010 11:46pm Jan 18, 2010 11:46pm
Quoting nimmu1982
I think today all the way below 90.00 and start of the downtrend.
...I dont think it will get much further then 90.20 area today...looks pretty extended by then...went short at 90606, target 90347 missed by half a pip so far
  • #14,467
  • Jan 18, 2010 11:50pm Jan 18, 2010 11:50pm
http://i49.tinypic.com/33keiaa.jpg
  • #14,468
  • Edited 2:44am Jan 19, 2010 1:25am | Edited 2:44am
I don't foresee a break of the 90.30 area today, will likely happen sometime this week though and I think we'll see a breakout further south from there. Today the third pivot support comes in right around 90.30 as well as the 38.2% fib retrace from the latest upward move on the daily chart so that is going to provide some relatively decent resistance. You can see how it got a good bounce off that level today. If we approach that level today you could execute a relatively low-risk trade in buying off this level with a tight SL just below or waiting for the breakout of this level and shorting after confirmation of a breakout.

I'm still holding on to my short position at 90.936.

Edit: I meant to say third daily pivot support, not second.
  • #14,469
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:45am Jan 19, 2010 2:45am
We are testing our major level of support for the day right now. Get ready for a breakout or a chance to buy off these levels on a bounce. Support seems fairly strong so expect a big move down if we break through the 90.300 level.
  • #14,470
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:16am Jan 19, 2010 3:16am
Quoting sat0pi
We are testing our major level of support for the day right now. Get ready for a breakout or a chance to buy off these levels on a bounce. Support seems fairly strong so expect a big move down if we break through the 90.300 level.
Hey sat0pi, do not bother too much. its not gbpjpy. It is probably going to take 4-48 hours to go down to below 89 or less.
  • #14,471
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:40am Jan 19, 2010 3:40am
i hav open sell 20sl no tp from 90.57
  • #14,472
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:02am Jan 19, 2010 4:02am
Quoting availdollars
Hey sat0pi, do not bother too much. its not gbpjpy. It is probably going to take 4-48 hours to go down to below 89 or less.
Yeah, I know. By a big move down I mean towards the 90.000-90.100 area.
  • #14,473
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:14am Jan 19, 2010 4:14am
So that bounce off support was a lot bigger than I expected...
  • #14,474
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:40am Jan 19, 2010 4:40am
Quoting sat0pi
So that bounce off support was a lot bigger than I expected...
US session may want to retest, it needs to break 91.00 for a real reversal, it may be just a whipsaw due to not enough sellers at the 91.30 level to break out.

audjpy and eurjpy are merry on their way still going down, gbp is very strong due to the cad-bury deal.

BTW, 30-40pip bounce of the 91.30 isn't that big
  • #14,475
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:53am Jan 19, 2010 4:53am
Quoting availdollars
US session may want to retest, it needs to break 91.00 for a real reversal, it may be just a whipsaw due to not enough sellers at the 91.30 level to break out.

audjpy and eurjpy are merry on their way still going down, gbp is very strong due to the cad-bury deal.

BTW, 30-40pip bounce of the 91.30 isn't that big
Oh yeah, I know. I don't mind at all as I took the opportunity to add on to my short position.
  • #14,476
  • Jan 19, 2010 6:37am Jan 19, 2010 6:37am
No signs of going down yet, I have my stops at 91.15. The only hope is the US news after 1.5 hours.
Where there is a will there is a way...
  • #14,477
  • Jan 19, 2010 7:23am Jan 19, 2010 7:23am
Quoting Kas1
...I dont think it will get much further then 90.20 area today...looks pretty extended by then...went short at 90606, target 90347 missed by half a pip so far
...hit my target...pretty fast reversal off 9030...I think there could be another push down in 6hours or so...warming the bench
  • #14,478
  • Jan 19, 2010 7:56am Jan 19, 2010 7:56am
Quoting sat0pi
So that bounce off support was a lot bigger than I expected...
Yeah it was huge...last week I was saying how I was planning to ride the retracement but didn't have my order in place. Was too busy shorting it till about 90.40 then pulled out. Let's see what happens after the news.
  • #14,479
  • Jan 19, 2010 8:16am Jan 19, 2010 8:16am
Quoting fxpipper
Yeah it was huge...last week I was saying how I was planning to ride the retracement but didn't have my order in place. Was too busy shorting it till about 90.40 then pulled out. Let's see what happens after the news.
News seems to look too good for the dollar. Well i have exit n on the sidelines now. too tired of being stuck in the market, maybe another day to recover the lost pips
  • #14,480
  • Jan 19, 2010 9:48am Jan 19, 2010 9:48am
Yeah I'm taking a break too. All the trading I've done on the USD/JPY has been based on the technical analysis videos at learningmarkets.com, and they were spot on in their analysis!

The USD/JPY has retraced all the way from the 50% fib line, bounced hard off 90.3X (which I believe was the 23% line), and I don't think it's going back down there. I think it's going to rally again up to 50% (around 93.00)...the path it was headed on before the NFP news of a few weeks ago destroyed its momentum. If it breaks that barrier, then 95.00 will be the next major target.

I want to hear what the technical analyst at Learning Markets has to say before I make my next move.
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