EURUSD

Price has already bounced back from 4392 area 7 times in hourly chart. It's the 23.6 fibo level of the down move 4578-4334. Still holding my shorts.
Any opinions?

For weeks now, euro market participants have been skirting the issue, hoping that Athens and its dodgy fiscal plans would go away.
The argument runs that Greece is only peripheral to the euro zone and its debts should hardly matter in the greater scheme of the European Union. And, at some stage, if the Greek government doesn't buckle down and make the much needed spending cuts, the European Union will bail them out.
But investor nerves were finally rattled at the end of last week when remarks by both German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, crystallized the real threat Greece poses for the single currency.
Like any other major currency, support for the euro relies on the assumption of fiscal discipline. But, unlike any other major currency, the euro is issued by 16 autonomous states over which the European Union itself has no say.
In other words, if any individual member such as Greece wants to run up debts that threaten its credit rating and force a default, there is no one to stop it.
Merkel summed the problem up precisely: "Who is supposed to tell the Greek parliament that it needs to carry out pension reform?"
There is certainly little sign that Athens is about to carry out those reforms, or start reducing its debts, on its own accord.
In fact, the fiscal reform package that the government has proposed has become a bit of a joke, with the European Union last week diplomatically referring to its "statistical irregularities."
Not only is the government suggesting that it can slash the country's budget deficit over the next year or two, it is also projecting that the economy will continue growing through 2011.
One solution to resolve the whole issue would be to kick Greece out of the euro.
But that in itself would pose more of a risk to the euro and was quickly ruled out by Trichet when he was questioned on the matter last week.
Nevertheless, the ECB president was also just as quick to make it clear that the ECB won't be running to Greece's aid with any "special treatment."
That is hardly surprising given that the central bank would quickly come under pressure to do likewise for other debt-ridden members such as Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, which has already been forced to take tough spending cuts to reduce its deficit fast.
In the meantime, the clock is ticking for Greece.
Trichet's remarks brought another sharp widening in the spread of Greek credit-default swaps, a type of default of insurance for debt, as investors lost even more appetite for Greek bonds.
And matters are only likely to get worse.
The wider CDS spreads are bad news for Greek banks, which hold much of this paper and could now be sitting on significant losses.
Poor earning reports next month will only compound Greece's woes and bring the country that much closer to default on its debt.
But the alternative--Trichet and his cronies running to the country's rescue--would hardly be much better for the euro.
"Such a bailout would constitute a point of no return as it would go at least against the spirit of the euro stability pact, evoking the danger of a fiscal policy moral hazard," said currency strategists at Commerzbank AG.
The whole Greek issue also coincides with a continued failure by the euro zone in general to show a more robust rebound from the recent global recession.
So not only was Trichet undermining the euro with his attack on Greece last week, he was also hurting the single currency by suggesting that an ECB rate hike or even a move away from the bank's unconventionally liquid policy measures is far from likely anytime soon.
With currency markets being driven more by rate differentials than risk in recent weeks, this hardly bodes well for the euro and suggests that forecasts from some analysts for a fall to $1.35 in coming weeks will more than likely be fulfilled.
See the euro's recent slide against the dollar
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3283
Early Monday in Europe, Greece remained very much at the top of the agenda with a newspaper report that the ECB is preparing the legal ground for problems with the euro as the Greek problem escalates.
The euro itself is trading fairly flat, moving a little higher to $1.4381 by 0745 GMT from $1.4376 late Friday in New York, according to EBS.
The single currency is also up at Y130.78 from Y130.54, while the dollar is up at Y90.93 from Y90.82. The slightly improved sentiment comes as the market looks ahead to a rash of Chinese data later this week that are expected to show strong growth that will lift hopes for the global recovery.

This probably won't help, but I have just gone long at 1.4390!!

The more Trichet flaps his gums, the more he looks like an idiot.....imo of course!!

A small bull set up at the top , may retrace before go.
fontu

Thanks Gator.

Donnie

hes just the messenger..in the u.s. a single country, it is hard enough to keep us from fighting. imagine 16..if california could print they would.

Yeah true.....but he doesn't seem to do anyone in the EU any favours. If he's got nothing worthwhile to say, best he just shut's his trap!!

long? even when the 15m and 30m stoch are goinz down? ure brave...

$1.35 then parity then...? Of course, the EU will break up and we'll be back to trading the marc & the franc. The spread on the lira will be about 5,000 pips, unless you know Guido....

I will consider it a non runner, if a 15 min bar closes below 1.4371.

Just wonder, where is it from?

they didnt keep it together when it was gold. why would a paper keep it together?

I have a fib at 4375 and another at 4392. So far it's just a game of ping pong between the two. A decisive break either way might set the direction for this session.....until then though.....sigh......I'm waiting....lol....

By far not agreeing with long, but 15m and 30m mean nothing for market direction =/

That is really a very clever thought.

Where does your 4375 fibo level come from?

23.6% of 4511 high (the top before Fridays drop), and the current low of 4334

I see...thanks mate! Bad news for Italian folks...c'mon bears!! What are you waiting for!! LOL!!

im not saying usd getting stronger. im saying this.. eurx daily chart