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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #9,181
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:17am Jan 14, 2010 6:17am
Quoting razorboy
do you have a crystal ball that tells you when the range is going to break?
It might break this afternoon after the news from USA. I'm not sure. I identify a range by putting a box round it. Most strategies, especially indicator based strategies like ma crosses, can fail during ranging periods because of the number of spurious signals.

Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd100114.gif Size: 24 KB


So in my opinion this is not a "hot hand". (Today, at least)
Gone to a better place
  • #9,182
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:18am Jan 14, 2010 6:18am
in my testing, i took every IB, so in the case where there may be 2 or 3 ib's in a row - a pennant - I took each IB


Quoting DemoForever
Morning everybody (or afternoon,or evening)

These trades were the maximum the trend would allow,but you have got me thinking maybe i might have missed some winning ibs because i like to leave a bit of a gap before i put on another possition.I will go back over my charts and see if i have missed any.
  • #9,183
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:48am Jan 14, 2010 6:48am
Just to clarify what razorboy is saying (and he is so right), the title of this thread could just have as easily been DOBS (Daily Outside Bar Setup) or any other formation you like that allows you to very simply quantify entry and risk. Profit is what you leave up to the market. I make a point to pay myself as the market makes some money available to me - but this means a higher initial risk on both winning and losing trades. It's up to you. Figure it out and stick to it.

People keep questioning this because they just can't swallow the answer: it's up to you.

Here is a free DIBS rulebook which I just made up can you go through even 1 year of data for yourself on 1 pair to see if it works?

DIBS:
Markets:
CME globex pairs H1 (USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) from LO-LC

Position Sizing:
Unit = (1% of free capital)/(Dollars per point * ATR in points).
Max position sizes:
- Single pair: 4 units.
- Correlated pairs: 6 units.
- Single direction: 12 units.

Entry:
* Break of IB high/low with the trend by 1 tick +/- avg spread.
* Only in direction of LO.
* H1 72SMA/90SMA additional trend guide ONLY.
* IB must fill in 3 bars.

Stops:
1 tick +/- above/below opposite IB high/low.

Exit:
Exit two thirds of position at 1:1.
For all free trades, exit only if daily 72SMA is breached on a daily close.
Trade size adjust:
Decrease notional acct by 20% each time lose 10% of original account.

Recording:
For each trade, record:
- Lot size
- Direction
- Instrument
- Initial risk
- Volume of IB <> vol avg
- IB vol <> vol of prev. bar
- ATR
- MA slope
- Distance from 72SMA
- Distance from LO open price
- Trade outcome

Everything is quantified. No emotion. Can you do it? 1 year?
  • #9,184
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:57am Jan 14, 2010 6:57am
Quoting sinner-
Just to clarify what razorboy is saying (and he is so right), the title of this thread could just have as easily been DOBS (Daily Outside Bar Setup)
Yes - but the title is DIBs and based on the strategy outlined by Peter Crowns. I think FF traders were priveleged to be given this information and you are succeeding along with others in providing misinformation which can only confuse traders who read this thread.

So in order that all the people who have taken the trouble and time to start this thread have not wasted their time, may I respectfully suggest that you start your own thread and name it DOBS?
Gone to a better place
  • #9,185
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:20am Jan 14, 2010 10:20am
Quoting TipTop
Yeah, manual and foward test, there is no any back test provide the real result,

TipTop
No offense TipTop, but good luck manually forward testing few years to get some relevant sample size.
If you KNOW how to write some proper CODE and VERIFY, that your program is doing what it is supposed to.... I dont see any problem with it.

Bluefish
  • #9,186
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:37am Jan 14, 2010 10:37am
Quoting sinner-
Just to clarify what razorboy is saying (and he is so right), the title of this thread could just have as easily been DOBS (Daily Outside Bar Setup) or any other formation you like that allows you to very simply quantify entry and risk. Profit is what you leave up to the market. I make a point to pay myself as the market makes some money available to me - but this means a higher initial risk on both winning and losing trades. It's up to you. Figure it out and stick to it.

People keep questioning this because they just can't swallow the answer:...
sinner thanks for this good idea in this you have mentioned only in the direction of LO can you please tell me what is LO ? thanks
  • #9,187
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:08am Jan 14, 2010 11:08am
turtle sizing i see.........

Quoting sinner-
Just to clarify what razorboy is saying (and he is so right), the title of this thread could just have as easily been DOBS (Daily Outside Bar Setup) or any other formation you like that allows you to very simply quantify entry and risk. Profit is what you leave up to the market. I make a point to pay myself as the market makes some money available to me - but this means a higher initial risk on both winning and losing trades. It's up to you. Figure it out and stick to it.

People keep questioning this because they just can't swallow the answer:...
  • #9,188
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:29am Jan 14, 2010 11:29am
Quoting imran84
sinner thanks for this good idea in this you have mentioned only in the direction of LO can you please tell me what is LO ? thanks
LO=London Open
  • #9,189
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:34am Jan 14, 2010 11:34am
Quoting razorboy
in my testing, i took every IB, so in the case where there may be 2 or 3 ib's in a row - a pennant - I took each IB
If i get a pennant,i take the first ib then when the second bar forms i cancel the first trade.So basically i only trade the smallest bar.
  • #9,190
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:51pm Jan 14, 2010 2:51pm
Eur/usd results 4hr bars jan 2001-jan 2004

Total trades= 210

Winning trades=16( 3 trades still open.)

Losing trades=194
  • #9,191
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:09pm Jan 14, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting DemoForever
Eur/usd results 4hr bars jan 2001-jan 2004

Total trades= 210

Winning trades=16( 3 trades still open.)

Losing trades=194

I backtested GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP, H4 TF. Out of 21 years 3 were losers, 2BE, and 15 winning years. My entry and exit rules were slightly different than sinners, but overal this strategy might work, but I would never risk 1% per entry, maybe 0.5%, from beginning even less.
  • #9,192
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:37pm Jan 14, 2010 3:37pm
Quoting alter
I backtested GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP, H4 TF. Out of 21 years 3 were losers, 2BE, and 15 winning years. My entry and exit rules were slightly different than sinners, but overal this strategy might work, but I would never risk 1% per entry, maybe 0.5%, from beginning even less.
Good point,a lot of people have said 1% is too much to risk per trade.The maximum i have risked in any one trade is 1% but i only put 0.5 after a run and when the market is ranging.
  • #9,193
  • Jan 14, 2010 7:22pm Jan 14, 2010 7:22pm
The risk I specified is definitely not 1% it is volatility adjusted. Change the 1% to any number you feel comfortable with. It's not exactly turtle sizing, but close. Not like Richard Dennis was the first one to think of that position sizing equation.

smikester, I can't believe you are serious so going to ignore your post. I spent ages writing posts in this thread to try and help people. If you can even point out one single line of "misinformation" I've posted I'll eat my hat.

Why are all the people backtesting here doing it on H4? Doesn't make much sense to me personally. DIBS is useful because it shows both consolidations and lower TF 1-2-3s around the open, what is a H4 IB supposed to show that fits in with DIBS? How did you test EURUSD for 21 years?
  • #9,194
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:28am Jan 15, 2010 2:28am
Quoting sinner-
...Why are all the people backtesting here doing it on H4? Doesn't make much sense to me personally. DIBS is useful because it shows both consolidations and lower TF 1-2-3s around the open, what is a H4 IB supposed to show that fits in with DIBS? How did you test EURUSD for 21 years?

good point.
i think most of the posters here are not professional fulltime traders, nor do they have the time for h1 DIBS originally postet by Mr. Crown.
the advantage of H1 DIBS is the early trading into the virgin day before everybody is sitting on his desk.

and therefore i think the results of h4 differs a lot to the h1 approach.
  • #9,195
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:43am Jan 15, 2010 2:43am
This is the first test ive done on the dibs method,so i thought as i work full time 4hr bars would be easyer to trade.Some people are thinking this guy is doing it all wrong or this guy is never going to make it.Thats why im here hoping i can get some pointers in the right direction.
  • #9,196
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:45am Jan 15, 2010 2:45am
Quoting sinner-
The risk I specified is definitely not 1% it is volatility adjusted. Change the 1% to any number you feel comfortable with. It's not exactly turtle sizing, but close. Not like Richard Dennis was the first one to think of that position sizing equation.

smikester, I can't believe you are serious so going to ignore your post. I spent ages writing posts in this thread to try and help people. If you can even point out one single line of "misinformation" I've posted I'll eat my hat.

Why are all the people backtesting here doing it on H4? Doesn't...
THe reason is very simple. Most of the people dont have time to watch H1 charts all day. And if they just miss 1 setup that is big runner for whatever reason they are in big trouble.
I dont think H1 entry gives you an edge. I backtested the same exit rules for trades with entry at S/R levels(smal SL) and long term trend with better results. But again you are too dependand on couple of big winners, so one wouldnt dare to go to holiday without laptop.
  • #9,197
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:46am Jan 15, 2010 2:46am
2 superb complimentary DIBs trades this morning, EUR/USD and USD/CHF let's see if they pan out.

This is the break out from the range I mentioned earlier.

By the way, 4 hour bars have nothing to do with this thread.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,198
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:31am Jan 15, 2010 3:31am
Quoting smikester
...By the way, 4 hour bars have nothing to do with this thread.
i agree.
  • #9,199
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:47am Jan 15, 2010 3:47am
Quoting smikester
2 superb complimentary DIBs trades this morning, EUR/USD and USD/CHF let's see if they pan out.

This is the break out from the range I mentioned earlier.

By the way, 4 hour bars have nothing to do with this thread.
Its an ib and it occurs daily or am i missing something?
  • #9,200
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:59am Jan 15, 2010 3:59am
Quoting sinner-

Why are all the people backtesting here doing it on H4? Doesn't make much sense to me personally. DIBS is useful because it shows both consolidations and lower TF 1-2-3s around the open, what is a H4 IB supposed to show that fits in with DIBS? How did you test EURUSD for 21 years?
While the initial concept and rules where designed for 1 hourly IBs there is still the availability to take the approach to any timeframe a person desires. 1 hourly IBs dont suit everyone, I am one of those, because it requires and abundance of screen time. 4 Hourly IBs are just as profitable.

It is up to the user. Some find sitting in front of a screen for hours on end enjoyable, I prefer to do my analysis in the morning and see what happens at intervals.

Razor
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