High Probability

identifying overbought and oversold...
the 200ema is central.
also the woodiepivots..

can pretty much identify the overbought oversold.
it is the breakout that I have trouble with.

am noticing that a cross of short trix over long trix near the 0 line simultaneously with a macd cross is a good marker for a breakout.

if the trixes cross too far away from 0 they can easily revert back to the original direction and no breakout... price action can develop into a continuation or stall out...

will do some more sim and demo practice to see how this marker holds up... so far pretty good

more like this for breakout and continuation

good marker with the trend,
not counter trend, pullbacks are too shallow..

Great result, keep it up...

TipTop

first time using the 2 candle set up live.
cold cold feet...
I caught 7 pips but it was an over 50 pip move...
but the entry was correct...
very happy about that..
also tried to catch the top, in a little too early still caught a few pips then again
learning a lot more about tops and bottoms..
head and shoulders and double formations...
divergences, support from ,multiple time frames.
And the tremendous value of not trading if the strategy is not giving definite signals..
so this was the first 2 candle trade live...
there's going to be lots more no doubt.. very nice strategy..

seem to be developing an overly cautious attitude.
Can't tell if it is simply the mkt not giving the signals I like to find or if somehow I have become too timid to trade.
I look for very obvious overbought and oversold, am not seeing the set ups this week. It is true that EURUSD is a bit sideways, I think it is a bear flag, and we head down to the 200 ema on the weekly, that the equities mkts begin to roll over for a decent correction, as US equities are approaching their 200 ema on the weekly and we are sure for a test of that resistance which will bring some weakness in the mkts and strength for USD. But I am interested in the 1 min, short, quick trades.
So either I learn to trade a ranging mkt like this with small hardly recognizable swings or wait it out until there is a big move with obvious big swings.
Too timid to trade is far preferable to throwing money away if I am not sure of the set ups. And I just haven't seen the set ups I know are possible and have traded so nicely in the past.
No trades yesterday, no trades Tuesday.. A few skimpy trades other days.
When there are times like these it seems I may have imagined the set ups in the past and that there is something wrong with the strategy or with me... and that is why there have not been any trades.
Since I've been here before in this state of mind and know that if I force a trade situation I might as well throw the money out the window, I will wait until I see what I know is a good set up.
This is another hurdle to cross on the way to truly successful trading. Patience.
But the mind is saying with the benefit of hinsight, look at that super trade you missed because you were "afraid to trade". But I know it is more than fear, I did not see the kind of confirmation i would need to see to be able to enter the trade with conviction. And without conviction, at the slightest move against my trade I am likely to jump ship and take a loss. I must be sure of the trade, the target and the overall direction before I enter and I have not been able to confirm this over the last few days.
My strategy aims to capture very short term momentum. Without momentum there is no trade.
the only thing I can think to do is to wait it out.
It actually seems there is very little trading going at all.
Every so often a trade takes place. And the price seems to just meander.
Not my mkt. Perhaps if I think it through I might want to start another account a whole separate different dedicated to trading a mkt like this. Develop a strategy for that mkt and practice until I get it right. But definitely not to mix the strategy I have for the present account.
I have a practice account going for a strategy to trade the weekly chart. So I can open one for trading a consolidation pattern.
One thing I notice is that consolidation on whatever time frame the consolidation is obvious on tends to use for upper and lower boundaries, the 200 ema and the pivot point. I would like to try trading with those boundaries as entry points and exit points.
hmmm. maybe I'll sim it on that and see what I find...
(It'll give me something to do while I wait for the right mkt conditions for my short term momentum trading)

one of those days..
knew EURUSD was going to s3... at 9 am I shorted and set limit
the volatility spooked me.
closed for a small loss.
tried again, the volatility rattled me again
another small loss.
then sure enough, a perfect piroutte, 3:30 pm , it took all day, and I knew it would, landed for a split second on s3 without me.
just one of those days.
cleaning up the template and changing things a bit
using hi low channel rather than xmpa,
30 min chart...
the 1min is good for big moves then corrective
but the channel is good for catching the impulse
Thank goodness is Friday..
Fresh start on Monday.
the Dow is really toppy on the weekly chart,
am sure of more USD strength...

perfect piroutte

new template

New look
using 5ema hi lo channel. When ashi closes completely above, look to go short
when ashi closes below look to go long
macd helps identify the stage the trend may be in.
have added dss 8,50 to help identify selling and buying.
watch pivots, support and resistance, the 200 ema for entrance and exits.
This is good for both reversals and breakouts.
will help to keep me out of consolidations. please....
2 accounts, based on risk.
one account is a "one-trick-pony" only over bought and oversold on the 1 min.
So it is for catching the corrective wave after a big impulse wave. Easy to spot, quick trade. Nothing else. drawdown to a minimum. gains small. hi-probability trade.
a second account is for catching bigger moves. That is traded on the 30 min chart.
Same template, different time frames. This is for reversals and breakouts big impulse moves.

liking the way this is acting on the sim..
for entry, important to wait for the opening of the 2nd candle in the direction of the trend signaled by ashi smooth closing outside the ema channel.
will definitely keep me out of consolidations....thank you..

the template is good
based on price action
the indis are there only to support
signals are based on price action...
ha smoothed drops below 5ema low look for entry on next candle in same direction...
vice versa long
working out exceptionally well on 30m simulated..
cannot test 1m on simulator, moves too fast..
wish there was way to slow the 1m simulator down..

how good these signals are...
my old habit, it looks like it's going to the pivot, and indeed it is going to the pivot, but the problem is not a good entry with "it looks like"
so with the old habit I entered short way to early not waiting for the good entry signal which came much later and with a lot less risk... and gave an even better entry point...
...

lots of mistakes here

the trading day wasn't much of a trending day anyway, pretty much consolidating after the big move the day before.

first trade was okay, a few pips on a big candle,
2nd trade was just plain dumb, chasing the move but the pa had just passed thru r1 and more often than not there is a retrace or a stalling at major support and resistance levels. so I did what I am so good at doing, bought hi..
ha was signaling look for entry, but always need to consider proximity to s/r, 200 ema, pivots etc...

3rd trade did not get the ha signal or the pa signal, 2nd candle in same direction, I was lucky..

4th trade was opened in the middle of consolidation, pa is sitting directly on the pivot and bouncing there, 200ema has flattened out and is almost parallel to the pivot and just below it slightly...

just dumb thoughtless moves...

but they can be expensive...

why do I do that. impatience..... bad habits... It may be something like the law of physics called inertia. A body at rest tends to stay at rest while a moving body tends to keep moving.
so involved in the price action and buying and selling (clicking the mouse) that I tend to keep doing it even with unwise situations.
So like in physics it takes work to get a body at rest to move it also takes work to retrain a body that is already in motion.
I will have to work at it....
Through ever improving discipline..
This is what caused my losses on Friday, after a 2 week span of impeccable successes... I could not restrain myself from trading even though the signals were not there......
This is the work. Self control. Discipline. Awareness.. Vigilance. Keeping the eye on the goal... Tolerating.
The difference between training like for a dog.
And real mastery of an art.
You can train a dog to shake a paw, sit, lie down, etc. But if you throw a bone he will jump for it.
To master the art of trading it is more than just training. There is a development of character that must take place. A strength of character is required. And that strength of character carries over into every other aspect of the traders life. This strength that must develop in order to trade successfully is not something that can just be turned off and on for trading only. It is actually a transformation of the person.

much better
after I gave myself the little lecture,
much better
the first x marks where I would have ordinarily tried to enter short, seeing the pa drop down, but ha was not confirming a good entry. So although the direction is still showing down, the entry is not good.
I waited for ha to close above 5ema hi and sure enough a brief retrace took place and the entry (arrow down) was good.
the 2nd x marks where I would ordinarily try to go long, but again ha is not confiming a good entry even though upside is favored..
the moves were too wild for the 30 min.
the big bull candle that appeared (check mark) could have been traded more successfully on the 1m. as well as the bear candles that followed. too wild a swing for the 30 min..
Did find a good solid entry with all confirmations, exited a little early since pa approached r1 and it was getting toward afternoon New York.
Very proud of this trading.
Done the right way...

more sim
learning to wait for proper entry.
analysis says pa is going somewhere, but proper entry is required.
1. perfect entry
2. dumb trade chasing pa, but was lucky bad habit, can be very costly if unlucky...
3. wrong entry again lucky, but better entry would be at 4.
5. did not enter, bad entry point, 6. ha not closed below 5ema low but where I would have been tempted to enter, again chasing pa... bad habit but did not do it this time...
7. perfect entry..

The dragon is back..
let's see how it goes.

if AUDUSD breaks thru 200 ema, it would bne more than just a corrective, it could be beginning of impulse, since 200 ema on 3 successive time frames would be broken thru at the same time... so it could be a significant move to the upside.
then again, the resistance there is very strong so if it fails, then more downside.
wish I wasn't in the trade yet.. could be on the wrong side,
4hr and 30 min are pretty negative.. that 4hr would have to play out before really significant move to upside could happen..
still favor a limit at s1.. which is also a 61 fib retrace..could take all day to get there, with lots of thrills and chills along the way.
Frankfurt about to open, 15 mins, could take things up for a while, LOndon open take it back down...
here we go roller coaster ride.

broke thru pretty strong move,
but Frankfurt not open yet...
10 mins..

actually I think this is going to the 200ema on the 4h.
that wouldn't be for a while, could take weeks...

here it is on the 1m
is AUDUSD just paused and setting for a push upside, or is this just a spike testing the 200 and about to fall back?
China putting the breaks on it's economy, Australia big commodities supplier to China...
Should take some of the wind out of the sails...