High Probability

here it is on the 30m
indis favor downside..
but they have to be taken with a grain of salt, they like to change very quickly... very fickle...

the 5m
sure would be nice to see a lower swing hi here....

how about something like what happened earlier....
a poke up through testing 200 ema on the way down...

maybe just gonna bounce up and down between resistance at the 200ema and support at the pivot.. limbo..
on 5 min and 15 min..

still see this as a short,
that the 1 hr is playing out before the turn down,
so that the 4hr can play out
all the buyers need to get done buying...

is that it?
buyers done?
some neg divergence would be nice..

the buzzard cursing the cow to die....
down down down... London take it down...

yes yes yes yes
macd hasn't confirmed with a divergence cross yet... but but but

common London

Frankfort took it up
London took it down
US take it to new lows...

what can I say???

limit hit, s1/61 fib
now where to?
retrace a bit until just before US mkts?
Then new lows?
or
straight shot...on momentum to s2
sell on any strength...

playing with selling into strength and buying on weakness.
on the sim it works so nicely
willtry some of this on a live demo tomorrow.

Tues:
followed the movements of AUDUSD and EURUSD very nicely yesterday.
got it right.
Then just before lunchtime NY tried to trade a retrace of EURUSD bounce off of s3, as is the case and happens very very often, s3 was not the bottom of the downslide, price action dropped below s3 to s4 and it took all the rest of the after noon for a slow painful rise back up to s3 and then gradually gradually up to s2.
The divergences in macd on the 15 were very pronounced but as can be the case that did not mean the price action would be significant. Sometimes the divergences only indicate that there will no more downside (or upside) for a while, things go sideways on a macd divergence even a really pronounced one.
So the move down was so strong during the day, that that was the case. Divegrences and all, not much of a retrace, just a half hearted move up. If I could have stayed in to the bitter end I would have broken even, but after hours of anxiety should I bail or not, I jumped out, for -10 pips could have been a lot worse.
This can happen, but if i had simply not done that last trade, just before lunch, (I was counting on the lunch time to reverse the trend which it so very often does and it did but just not enough, very weak) I would have kept the 21 pips from the morning.
So I had to give back half the gains.
Better than giving back all the gains...
But this wouldhave to be in the category of overtrading.
Not knowing when to stop, like, stop when you're ahead.....
not when you're forced to stop.....

coming to together piece by piece..
identify the trend,
on strength sell in downtrend
on weakness buy in uptrend.
no chasing trades...
if I get stuck in a position no big deal since if I am trading with the trend it is sure to turn around eventually and no loss..
This is the piece of the puzzle I have been missing..
be willing to ride it out if there is some draw down.
but don;t trade against the trend, getting stuck in a trade against the trend could be a loss totally, since the price action may very well not come back to that point again...
so don;t have to work so hard at getting it exactly right..
with the ha candles, after 4, 5 or 6 candles against the trend there is sure to be a profitable pullback if not a reversal...
which can be treated as a scalp trade...
consult the indis for clues

Great day. major major break thru.....
scalping is so easy as long the trend is followed.
incredible..

back to default setting for dss.
8,14. never thought that dss would be the most significant indi on the template..
but it is...
shows entries perfectly..
in a down trend, enter short when dss starts to turn down from 80, usually the 2nd red dot...
also ha candles should have a decent run up in green, 4 or 5 or more in succession..
very nice..
also time of day is very important.
There should be lots of buying and selling activity.
Frankfurt, London, US... opens, great times to trade...
Honk Kong too, but mys schedule does not allow..
Important to make sure I am rested and alert. Do not trade if I am tired and cannot monitor the trade. After all this is scalping. 5 seconds can make a huge difference.

this is why trading with the trend is the safest way to go..
if I get the entry wrong I may only have to ride out a minor correction whereas if I get the entry wrong going against the trend, prices might not come back for a couple of years!!!
I just need to get used to capturing a few pips here and there, not looking at how much got left behind...
when the gain is there take it,
because this a very high probability strategy, further strengthened by trading only with an established trend, losses should be very, very minimal. There should be way more successful trades than losses...

more practice..
#1 macd and dss favored a move down, but I did not wait for ashi candles to go green, as a result I entered too early, had to ride out a small correction, but this is the benefit of always trading with the trend, because the primary trend was down, the trade was good.
#2. same thing,
evidently what I am thinking is that I am missing a big move, and indeed there may be a big move in the making, but where the entry is makes a huge difference... always wait for the ashi candles.... they are a a first class indicator based on price action.....
#3. took a chance on a counter trend move, in real trading I most likely would not do that, bad habit, that's good way to get my head handeld to me on a platter... lucky only.... silly me, I have so many bad habits that just won't seem to die, Pain of realizing a loss in bad trades may be the only way to really kill them... stubbornness that's all...
#4.little early, dss was not fully overbought, but ha candles confirmed and the bounce down from s2...
#5. got the entry right, but didn't ride the move. All three confirmations were very strong, plus good bounces down from 200 ema and s2, just
#6. counter trend, but time of day and way oversold conditions said ripe for a retrace. Still it would be better if I didn't jump for those...

After a big move sometimes the correction is not very great. It lapses into a sideways consolidation even though macd and dss look like rollercoaster tracks. The pa does not actually go anywhere. Buying and selling is going on but the pa is not moving. An end of day fade can bring a few pips but then again the risk is there for me because of my schedule that I will get caught in the trade and have to rollover. Then I have to take rest also and I really don't want to carry a trade overnight. When I log off I want to be entirely out of the mkt until the next day...

Have started a thread on "trading systems" called "The Dragon"
It is helpful to me to be asked questions about the system and also to try to present the system in a logical way.
Am not getting much feedback so I don;t know if anyone is testing it. But then again I only started it yesterday.
Have given some simple exercises like in a text book for course.
Just doing that has helped me.
Only 1 trade on Friday. +3 pips, There could have been more but I make up my mind that I would not trade Friday, no data, no news, so I am happy I did not trade. Kept to my determination. News is light today. And the trend in EURUSD is not strong, I believe the pair is almost done correcting and will take another dive down soon, today or tomorrow. Weekly 200 ema is a very reasonable target...
So I will look for possible trades today, but if nothing jumps out at me, I will not trade. only data is USD existing home sales at 10est.