High Probability

just messing around with the demo
am at work and cannot monitor the trades.
so they hit stops...
thanks for stopping by..

It seems the tendency is for me to wander off trying to come up with some new tweak, when really the old standby template is more than adequate.....
And there is so much to be said for using the same template without any changes for a long period of time. Like learning to play keyboard, the moves become second nature.... Clumsy at first, all thumbs, but then smooth...
I think this tendency to look for "new and improved" is simply a product of a slow market place. The template is a lot like a motion sensor. When there is movement it really kicks into high gear and illustrates very nicely entries and exits... But for goodness sake, if the market isn't active there's no template on earth that can find entries and exits...
If I have my nice surf board but the ocean is still and there are no waves..... it is not that there is something lacking in my surf board...
So this tweaking, at least at this point, is simply a product of my own impatience...
Like running around in the middle of the night with a flashlight, where is the sun?
Patience is this lesson.....
My beautiful template, "The Dragon"

Hey Jiva..you right if we change our system every week we will never be profitable in forex..we have to stick to our system like white on rice and learn it inside out and this will help our confident and our trading result will be so much better.Keep up the good work though and hopefully whenever i visit this thread again maybe tommorow or next year you will be using this same system profitable..good luck and happy trading .

This is killing me.
I can't trade the London open because I am at work. I have to watch as the markets have these incredible moves like giant sweeping waves and I can't trade.
I mean I could but it wouldn't be right. My attention would be divided and scalping like I do requires full attention to catch those 5, 10 and 20 pip moves that happen in a matter of seconds sometimes. And I trading other people's accounts as well as my own now.
Well it is just that much more impetus for me to get good enough trading that I can schedule my own times to trade, and not have to punch this dumb clock.
First things first, let me get good enough. Then no more clock punching...
So only time I can realistically trade with full attention is about 2 1/2 hours before NY stock market opens until NY lunch time, about 5 hours... I can catch moves on USD data and that's about it for now...
But I am drooling over London.... that's a fact...
I am determined to become disciplined enough to follow these time guidelines.. It feels a lot like the discipline I needed to develop in order to trade my template properly... No exceptions, but, but, but.... no, no, no. It is not worth it even I get a good trade or 2 outside my template, because I would have compromised my self control... If that is weakened it only opens the door for further deterioration. Like the thief getting away with a little booty, develops the thief's "mentality", and eventually the thief is caught. Out of business.
Give an inch, lose miles.....
But this is hard. I really want to trade London. I will have to get good enough so that I can quite the job. There is no other way. Quit the job or forget ever trading London... Now there's impetus.........

Good morning Jiva,

I understand where you are coming from. Don't worry, you will get there. You and I are at the same point it sounds like. Plan has been established, now just need to stick to the plan and trade it. No deviation....

Well don't rush, just stick to your plan, London will always be there for you. I am going to send you a PM because I need to ask you a question. Bag them pips!

Lohad

stuck to the plan...
waited to trade until the allotted times
3 good trades total +26 pips
quit at noon NY...
no complaints...

do not try to trade someone else's trade.
Know my own strategy inside and out, practice it, and practice it and practice it some more.
Know when to get out before I get in.
If I smell a rat, the trade is not going the way I envisioned, don't guess, get out for as small a loss as possible.
Some one else has their own vision of a trade. I do not know their vision, they know their vision. So if try to trade some else's trade I will not be sensitive to the twists and turns, what is normal and what is not normal in the price action for that trader's trade setups.
there is a rhythm or a whole movement from beginning to end for a successful trade. It is not just a matter of an entry point,
it is like finding when a certain dance routine is starting. It is the beginning of a complete routine that I have seen before, I know what to expect from the dance steps...
To try to trade someone else's entry I am not familiar with the dance routine that trader has spotted... Like an elephant on the dance floor I tromp in and stumble all over the place... I don't know the moves that other trader is familiar with...
It is not just a matter of an entry point...
It is a matter of trading the whole fluid pattern.
I like short momentum moves. They all look exactly alike on my template. The more I trade them the more confident I am. Like learning to dance. To dance with the market...
Or swim. Finding the current. And learning to let the current carry me. Wind in the sails. There are so many ways to compare.
Trade winds...
practice practice practice...
become expert..

On a day like yesterday when EURUSD and most other pairs were rangebound on the 30 min charts and 6o min charts I don't have a strategy for trading.
I am confident of my template in fast moving trending, breakout, reversals etc.
So at least I had enough self control not to try to trade range bound without having a tested strategy. 2 trades on weak excuses for trend, +14 pips...
But I see other traders are able to scalp nicely in range bound conditions so this is something I want to learn. the market isn't always in strong trend and it may be that for the next little while, who knows maybe months, range bound could prevail...
So have my work cut out for me.. Learn how to trade range bound mkts...
Also, no trades after noon, NY time.
Like yesterday I took a trade around 2pm on what looked like maybe some trending action (after good figures were relaesed for the USD budget deficit) and the trending was very shortlived....
So I got stuck in the scalp for 2 hours not what I had in mind... Finally, I was lucky and got out for +1 pip.
My schedule does not allow me to trade after noon NY. If I get stuck in a trade I may be forced to close for a loss when if I had a little more time to put into it the loss could be avoided.
No trades after noon NY
No trades after noon NY
No trades after noon NY
(One exception, extra ordinary news releases, like fed rates, when trading action is in high gear)
I expect trading action to be a little weird until after January 1st.
So I want to exercise extra special care in initiating trades...
I don't have to be in the market all the time...
If I can do 3 good scalps, which for me means 10 pips each or so..
And each scalp takes less than 5 mins, what's the problem there?
30 pips....
If I can do this with reliability, then all I need to do to increase the profit is increase the position size.... always keeping position size within reason as a function of the equity in the account...
No big draw-down. No huge risk. Just catch some momentum moves. Quick.
Safe. Gain...
But that is for when mkts are trending and trading is revved up..
So what about the range bound conditions. I will be researching that.. Maybe I don't want to trade that, just trade what I know works..
I'll find out.

another alternative when the mkts are rangebound during my allotted trading times might be to skip trading then altogether, take rest at that time and get up to trade another session, say instead of trying to trade the 4 hours from 8am to noon est, rearrange my day so that I can trade the Asian session, from 6pm to 10pm est...

using the simulator it was possible to collect over 200 pips on GBPUSD in one day on the 5 min chart.

But what happens in live trading is amazing. I can't concentrate. Perhaps the simulator moves quickly enough so I can see continuity more easily. Live trading can be very slow and then very very fast..

Like trying to drive a stick shift and not knowing how to use the clutch.

I am determined. Although today was a day of losses it is not my template, it is my ability to concentrate properly in the midst of the live session.

All I can see to do at present is to continue to practice practice practice..
So that the patterns become fixed. Like practicing etudes on a piano in different keys.

I lost money for people that I trade for as well money in my own account. That is an even worse experience that losing just my own money. It is really crushing. I let people down. But they should know the risks. It happens to even the best traders from time to time. No one is 100% successful all the time.

Now it is about getting back on track.

It was like I went blank when the big move started after better than expected retail figures. I don;t even remember really consulting the template, just maybe looking at s/r. It was like I was paralyzed by all the action. I remember as a child there was a brush fire behind our house one day. No one else was home and I became frantic with fear. I happened to be eating ice cream at the time and the only thing I thought to do was throw the ice cream at the fire. It's like that same idiocy in the face of a big move. Throw my money at it. I just went blank. What would that be like in combat for a soldier facing the enemy. Throw his gun at them? Oh boy. Have I got some more work to do before getting on stage for a performance.

To make matters worse the broker site jammed and I couldn't even access the platform. At least I know enough to put in stops. Don't want to see them hit, but without stops, the damage would be really irreparable..

So I am going to use every possible waking moment to practice the etudes, the scales, the coordination, until the music is sweet... And the money flows like honey....

And I can pull the trigger and not throw the gun.
Don't know if I'll live long enough to see the day but I am going to die trying that's for sure....
I want to become virtuoso.

Used to be when the weekend came I would lament because I had to wait 2 days before the markets opened.
Now I lament I don't have more time to practice and get ready for Monday, only 2 days..
There is so much to be said for getting a good night's rest. When I woke up today after much needed deep sleep I had a much clearer vision of where I need to go with the trading.
It was like I had been working on the problem in my sleep and woke with a plan and some solutions.
If I look back objectively I see that I have in place a very successful high probability strategy. When the markets are just sort of going along with no extremes, like the huge moves on announcements or dead spots just before announcements. Which I am guessing is about 2/3 of the time maybe even 3/4.
The losses I have taken were on what I call sunami days.
My everyday high probability technique involves checking back and forth the time frames looking for set ups and aiming for 10 pips or so on the 1 min...
That's great on a clear-sky-light-breeze day.
But when those big dark clouds start to form and there is distant thunder it's time for something else.
It's time to switch to a high profitability technique in order to catch the very powerful winds of change that are about appear.
Switching back and for time frames is a useless waste of time in a sunami. It's obvious the direction. The only question is how big is the move. My template which I like to call "The Dragon" will show me everything I need to know even in a tsunami.
The pivots and s/r are dead right on targets every time. As is the 200ema.
All I need to do is change gears from high probability and catching little pops here and there over different time frames, to riding the big wave. Using stops to follow the move using swings highs and swing lows as the move progresses.
It is this switching gears that I need to be conscious of. And I think I've got it now. The last two big announcements and ensuing tsunamis caught me off guard, I was still hopping around picking up 10 pips here and there when it hit and got caught in trades going the wrong way and was stopped out. This happened the last 2 times, like still sunbathing on the beach even when the storm is about to hit and getting swept away. Sleeping....
So my everyday technique is still fine for every day and quick pips... When the sun is shining and there is that slight breeze.
But when tsunami is forecast, get ready to ride....
I think I've got it...I think I've got it... I think I've got it....
I noticed that some other traders who have the high probability strategy and very successful with it were also caught off guard in the tsunami. But I think I've got it now....
Till the next lesson... whatever that may be and I know there is one waiting.... What will it be???
My beautiful template the "Dragon".

Something that is making sense:
seeing where the stop loss would be before getting into the trade.
I know that seems like common sense
but somehow I have not been calculating that before entering, just looking at where the target would be and somehow I have been a little successful.
But how much more risk can be calculated by seeing where the stop would have to be..
I am using a horizontal line to mark the swing high or swing low. If it is too far away I wait for a better entry...
A trade to taken might look something like this:

For the hi probability strategy:
the heiken ashi plot with it's change of color shows the change of trend very nicely for quickly identifying a swing hi or a swing low.
zooming out for a quick view of where long term trend lines might be is the first thing to when considering a trade
any patterns such a triangles or double bottoms or etc can be scanned for.
it may not be so necessary to constantly be checking different time frames which can add to confusion. Although some checking is helpful.

Two different accounts.
I'm going to separate the strategies.
tsunami days will be traded in one account
and piddle pips in another.
At some point it may be possible to trade in just one account both strategies but for now I want to separate them as the trading forecast allows.
So one is "tsunami" and the other is "piddle pips"..
I think this will help me to be able to more clearly make the distinction and trade appropriately.
piddle pips... when the 10 pips are there I need to take them if I'm in that portfolio. No hesitation. 10 pips take them.
there are so many opportunities for taking 5 or 10 pips. Why spend so much time and stress over a trade when quick like anything 10 pips on momentum. Then move on, look for another set up. No nail biting, hand wringing hair pulling out... No slaughtered pig...
piddle pips.
I just entered a trade short GBPUSD on no data just a trendline and over bought... I had 8 pips in my hand and didn't take them. I wanted more. I had to sit through an anxiety ridden 45 min, and luckily the trade did break and it was 21 pips.. but in that 45 min maybe there were 3 or 4 other piddle pip set ups, no stress, all gain. So please let me remember when I am tensed over the charts, that this strategy is not for huge gains it is for catching momentum and quick scalps..
Please let me remember. If I want to try catching a tsunami I should trade in the other account...
Let me separate these techniques from each other so my trading is not muddy...
Like my 2 checking accounts. One is for autodraft so I don't get caught with a late fee or get hiked to default rates because I spaced out and missed payment date (stepped on a land mine). And the other account is for check writing.
The auto pay account needs to be kept separate so that it runs smoothly. the account needs to balance nicely, no mess ups...
the check writing one sometimes is a little difficult to balance, forgot to enter a check, or a check I have written isn't being cashed and I lost track of it, etc. My math was off? Whatever. It needs to be separate.
Let me keep piddle pips like it was the auto account. No mess ups. Like automatic.
The other account tsunami can be a little wilder. Able to tolerate hit and miss looking for the big wave.
Piddle pips... piddle pips.. piddle pips..

In a bit of a funk last few days. trying to figure out what happened to my focus.
1.over trading.
2.not sticking to the strategy strictly
3. trying to follow too many pairs at once.
same old war horses.
But the damage is minimal this time. Faster recuperation.
One clear marker is when I start trying to add more indicators to the template. If I step back and take a look the template will look like a tangled ball of yarn.
Then I try to take everything off the template and just trade the signals on one indi...
One thing that is found to be the culprit is depending too heavily on the indicators and getting off balance.
Price action is king...
Indicators are just that - indicators.
Surfing the net I came across a utube with someone trying to sell their "strategy" in the intro he briefly described his use of ashi smoothed...
A light went off. This is the heart of my system. The price action in relation to ashi smoothed.
It is what I had been overlooking in trading decisions. With undesirable results..
I had become obsessed with checking different time frames watching the trix completely forgetting to check the ashi smoothed.
I have taken trix off the template altogether and am finding good old MACD to be very helpful. Actually MACD shows me the trend better than trix. And have taken the second stoch off the chart. So it is the one dss stoch and the MACD. Very neat and clean.
Watching for change of color and direction change of the ashi smoothed in realtion to price action. Dss shows the overbought and over sold areas very nicely.
Checking between the 5m and 1m.
There is something else I want to play with a bit. Scalping using the 30 min. I'll have plenty of time to fiddle faddle inbetween setups.
I will only trade the EURUSD. It moves plenty during the course of the day. Better to focus on the one pair and really get to know what is happening there. Jumping back and forth, the AUD, JPY, CAD, GBP, too much. Focus lost.
Tomorrow is data heavy.
with topping on the cake FOMC.
Looks like most of the move has already taken place in EURUSD. Buy the rumor.... In this case sell the EURUSD..
Maybe I can get on the right side of big move tomorrow. That would be nice. If not I can be happy with piddle pips during the day.
The accounts that I am trading for will be happy with any gains, if there are very little losses they will be fine paying up for even small gains. So If I can generate 5, 10, 20 pips regularly there will be no complaints. No pressure. Let me focus on that. 5, 10, 20.... 5,10,20..., 5,10,20.....
If there is a 30,40,50, etc. great... But it is not what I am trying for with this trading strategy. Please let me remember that. Even when the market is have some huge move. If I am not in the move, so what,. Better to not be in it than to jump in and get in on the wrong side, or have to ride out some huge drawdown on a whipsaw...
5,10,20 is my bread and butter... My accounts will be very happy if I can consistently produce 5,10,20.
Please let me get that through my thick dull brain....
I can make more in commisions with little or no risk with 5,10,20.
I am repeating 5,10,20 for a good reason. this is not optional. It is my strategy just as much as ashi smoothed, dss or MACD...
Oddly enough I think if I really get it, there will probably be some big move trades that I actually get... Simply because I am not stressed out trying to find one. I'll actually be able to see it...
Bring it on. Tomorrow's the day....
Wouldn't you know I forgot the cord to my laptop and can't do any simulator or charting while I'm at work.
Have to wait until 8 am est ..

Following other traders trades:
Using other traders positions as an indicator is not necessarily a very good idea.
They can be wrong, and are wrong alot of the time, even the best traders.
So piggy backing can be disastrous.
But also, just seeing their trade is no real help because by not knowing their strategy the management of the trade is impossible.
Was it a long term trade? Or were they trying to place a short term trade and got trapped not wanting to use a stop and are now just trying to ride out a big drawdown? Etc....
I admit I tried piggy backing a bit. I do not recommend it.
Everyone can be long EURUSD but it can still go down...
And does....
Misery loves company is not much compensation.
There is nothing like knowing your own trade...
Owning the losers makes possible the winners...

great day
here's why:
1 no over trading
2 stayed right with strategy
3 no bad trades
4 although it was a big news day, did not panic
5 traded my own set ups, did not even look at anyone else's

only +12 pips, but they were the sweetest pips ever..
Let me do that every day... Be consistent...
because I am trading other people's accounts as well as my own those 12 pips are worth a lot..commissions compounds the returns...

experimenting with the 200 ema which is one of the cornerstones of my strategy.
Read an article by a pro who relies totally on the 200 ema and pa. I can understand that...
The template has a lot on it right now. Getting a little cluttered may trim it back. Have marked the 200 ema on all time frames so that the markers bleed through all time frames. Want to monitor pa in relation to the 200 ema.
Have switched from ha candles to regular candles.
surfed a site where discussion of candle signals was going on, can be helpful, haramis, bullish engulfing, evening star, etc... exp on the 15 m for scalping the 5m and 1m. the candles aren't all that helpful on the 5m and 1m themselves.
macd, dss stoch, and trix (is back) like to watch for change of color on trix, usually signifies a reversal...
Macd cross of 0 confirms a trend, and macd cross can show a reversal as well divergences can help identify direction...
dss is good for oversold and overbought...
Price action is king....
pivots are like magnets, evidently limit orders wait at the pivot and s/r...
Early 12/16 called the EURUSD drop to 200 ema (over 100 pips) but didn't trade on it.
The account is for very short term trades only, with little or no draw down.
Getting ready to crank up the longer term trading account, that is a trade that would have been placed there.

The last week has been really flat.
There were huge move in the mkt, I didn't catch any of it. As a matter of fact I was on the wrong side a few times.
I traded and traded and am pretty much right where I started, no loss, no gain.
I know what I want to do. My template has taken me very close to where I want to go. However it is a little too vague. I want to be able to zero in with more definition for scalping.
What I need are tools that will:
1. identify the trend
2. identify the pullback and be able to tell if it is pullback or reversal.
The template has been able to do that in a broad way. By checking on the 5m for the trend and then looking on the 1m for reversal or pullback it has been possible using trix and the fast and slow dss stoch, a 200 ema and pivot points to have some very good entries.
But it is not good enough.
So I am shopping around on forex factory to find the tools I need.
Right now I am studying Trendman's thread. The basic strategy is what I have already been using with some bit of success, he even uses the the trix from the thv that I am using, but there are other techniques there very interesting.
Using ma crosses, which I was using in the form of ha smoothed and ma adapted to it plus a cross over of ha candle.
I am going to use regular candles since I think candle formations, espc on the 15 m can be very helpful.... 1m and 5m are too jumpy for the candle formations to be of any real significance.
One thing I always wanted to know was if there was a way in mtv to put an indi into a window with another indi as opposed to in the main chart. Lo and behold there is.... Simply go to navigator and point and drag the indi to where ever I want to put it. nice...
So my template is down, and I will spend as much time this weekend studying and trying to put together a more high power template.
Lots to do before Monday.

just not working.
now I am completely discombobulated...
remembered running across a very simple 2-candle price action system this summer.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...highlight=T3MA
The indicators are driving me coo coo on my templates. So I want to use this 2 candle system. Neat clean and I remember having some very good results.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_oRGfurso7x...20/perfect.bmppullback to 8ema and xpMA (entrance on open of next candle
this is what I will be looking for. simple. I know what I am looking for. A simple set up... What a relief...