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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #9,141
  • Jan 12, 2010 3:38am Jan 12, 2010 3:38am
Quoting Sauron
Well, let's talk about numbers (and the fallacies) .



I suppose that every winning trade will give you 10:1. But your profit will not be 10:1 but 5.5:1 because you take half of the profits after 1:1. .
So 5.5 * 13 = 71.5 which is smaller than 78, the usual loss.
And that's without considering spread and slippage.


The trailing to EMA or SMA is not a good idea anyway. You will get out every time after the retracement instead of profiting from it. It is like buying on support and selling at resistance.
i meant INCLUDED the 1:1 trades the winning trades are 10:1 (that means standing them alone they are 20:1)
  • #9,142
  • Jan 12, 2010 3:47am Jan 12, 2010 3:47am
Quoting RussiaTrader
i meant INCLUDED the 1:1 trades the winning trades are 10:1 (that means standing them alone they are 20:1)
Have you ever tested how many H4 IB candles give 20:1 with trailing over a year?
You need extremely huge trends which take place maybe once every two years for one very profitable trade. But you need 13.
  • #9,143
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:03am Jan 12, 2010 4:03am
Hi sauron

Im not trying to tell anybody anything they probablly dont already know.
Are people telling me that trading these 4hr bars the way i am i wil have lost all my money by jan 2010?
  • #9,144
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:23am Jan 12, 2010 4:23am
According to your results you will have lost your money. This is what my trading tools are saying.
  • #9,145
  • Jan 12, 2010 7:59am Jan 12, 2010 7:59am
Quoting Sauron
According to your results you will have lost your money. This is what my trading tools are saying.
At last, someone on this thread who knows what they are talking about.
  • #9,146
  • Jan 12, 2010 9:13am Jan 12, 2010 9:13am
Hi everyone am quite new to this thread still reading it and it seems interesting so far what i have learnt i am a bit confused am living in london so am trading +5 GMT and i traded Eur/usd today and so far day is bearish so according to dips method should be looking for sell trades i did it on eur.usd but it only went one pip after IB formed and then went up and touched stop/loss i just want to know where did i make a mistake if anyone can help me i will be very thankful
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IB.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #9,147
  • Jan 12, 2010 9:19am Jan 12, 2010 9:19am
Quoting imran84
Eur/usd today and so far day is bullish so according to dips method should be looking for sell trades
Day is bullish, so you should be looking for buy trades.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #9,148
  • Jan 12, 2010 9:20am Jan 12, 2010 9:20am
Quoting Reas
Day is bullish, so you should be looking for buy trades.
oh sorry my mistake i meant day is bearish isnt it bearish ?if u look at eur/usd thanks for help
  • #9,149
  • Jan 12, 2010 9:34am Jan 12, 2010 9:34am
Ok, if day is bearish then you're right.
I don't have a chart here so i cannot check.

But remember that you always have losing days, it's part of trading, you cannot avoid that.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #9,150
  • Jan 12, 2010 10:07am Jan 12, 2010 10:07am
Quoting imran84
Hi everyone am quite new to this thread still reading it and it seems interesting so far what i have learnt i am a bit confused am living in london so am trading +5 GMT and i traded Eur/usd today and so far day is bearish so according to dips method should be looking for sell trades i did it on eur.usd but it only went one pip after IB formed and then went up and touched stop/loss i just want to know where did i make a mistake if anyone can help me i will be very thankful
nothing wrong, but at least u should make 25-30 trades to move your account in the right direction.
there are often 6-7 losing trades in a row.
  • #9,151
  • Edited 8:20pm Jan 12, 2010 8:03pm | Edited 8:20pm
Hi thankyou everyone for reply also if anyone could help me according to Peter the new day starts at 1.00 am EST so which time is that for people living in london is that 6:00 am in london when its 1:00am est ?i assume its 6:00 am in london so our day from dibs method will start at 1:00 am est ? i am confused about this will b glad if anyone helps because you cannot trade until you know where market is going up from where day starts or down from where day starts
  • #9,152
  • Jan 12, 2010 9:13pm Jan 12, 2010 9:13pm
This is from the first post on this thread

Have a go and read please


Opening time
I think MPP sums it up nicely:
0600GMT is always 0600GMT. GMT and UTC never move all other times are +/- of GMT/UTC. ie london is currently GMT+1, your broker times are set to a GMT time and never change. BST, DST and EST change at differrent times so can be confusing.

I believe PC uses 0600GMT at all times, this way he can set his charts up get used to where the 0600gmt open is and forget about the confusion of BST EST and so on.
Peter:
"I use 00:00 CST or 06:00 GMT as my open. Believe me, if you are off 1 hour due to Daylight Savings time it is not going to be a problem."
NowAndLater's great post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=679
  • #9,153
  • Jan 12, 2010 11:04pm Jan 12, 2010 11:04pm
ok, folks,

tired of testing lots of systems...I tried this one and again, I cannot understand the hype.

Some figures who speaks for themselves...

Trades from March2009-november2009:
At all inside Candles (only first candle 1h, based on 7GMT to 10GMT): 90
Trades possible: 52(38 not hit)
STOP_LOSS_HIT_BEFORE_HALFPositionClose_Possible:39/52 (*wow*)
Biggest win to the end of the day: 92 pips(average:56 Pips if win)
Stop_LOSS_HIT_average:-21,06 pips

at all:
win:56*13(it's a bit less because you close half of the position after SL-loss is in the winning range but who cares at these figures):
+728
SL:39*21,06=-821,34

CRV:728/821:0,88 ... ?

I don't get it, that so much traders don't backtest systems BEFORE posting here how great sth. works. Tested on EUR/USD...
Not 100% accurate, that i only do if I see it's working.

Problems on this system:
1. How Enter if the "open" (5,6 GMT) only deviate few pips. I know the rule but this is like roulette (->ahh: 2 Pips above, so it's a long day...alright)
2. What about re-enter ? I tested entering only once. Results above...
3. The argument:
Close half of the position and let the rest run ! is quite simple, but then you only earn money IF MARKET IS MOVING very strong. (500Pips away or so WITHOUT REČNTERING YOUR ENTRY_RANGE...else you lose half SL...)

->ok, there were 2 to 3 big moves without coming back ... let's sumarize:

2 to 3 moves (2,5 a 300 Pips) ->750 pips extra

WIN:
728-300(lost because not closing endofDay)=428+750=1178
Lost:
more than -821 because other SL's will be triggered because of not closing EOday let's say: (13-2,5=10,5*-21 points extra= -220,5+(-821)= -1041,05)

At all:
1178/1045 = earned 133 pips in more than a half year...

I can understand the argument:
"Try to stay in the market (little loss is ok) and try to catch the big moves!" But hey... is this the answer ??
Trading 300 Days a Year for catching one or two big moves without coming back ???

I hope this is not the "holy gral" because this kind of trading is REALLY REALLY awful...

Ok, go to bed...
  • #9,154
  • Jan 13, 2010 12:48am Jan 13, 2010 12:48am
Quoting JackintheBox
ok, folks,

tired of testing lots of systems...I tried this one and again, I cannot understand the hype.

Some figures who speaks for themselves...

Trades from March2009-november2009:
At all inside Candles (only first candle 1h, based on 7GMT to 10GMT): 90
Trades possible: 52(38 not hit)
STOP_LOSS_HIT_BEFORE_HALFPositionClose_Possible:39/52 (*wow*)
Biggest win to the end of the day: 92 pips(average:56 Pips if win)
Stop_LOSS_HIT_average:-21,06 pips

at all:
win:56*13(it's a bit less because you close half of the position after SL-loss is in...
this is why i postet earlier:

"i think the only think worth do discuss in trading DIBS is the exit."

u can trade (how i do it) forms of DOJIs, rangebreakouts, and variations of DIBS.
with DIBS u have just a SETUP - thats all!

the money comes in with intelligent exit strategies...and only that is worth to discuss!
u can destroy the best setup in the world if u dont exit proper.

i will tell u again and again where the money comes from: not from DIBS!!!

money comes from the EXITS!!!!

so please, please....STEP BEHIND THE CURTAIN!

i know, for a newbie (somebody with 0-5 years experience) its hard to accept this , but this is in the end the secret.
  • #9,155
  • Jan 13, 2010 6:28am Jan 13, 2010 6:28am
what was the pipage on these trades.......also, I probably would not trust anything other than a manual backtest, unless the basis for the test is actually tick data

Quoting DemoForever
Trading 4hr inside bars between Jan 2001 - May 2003

Total trades 169

Loss trades 156

Profit trades 13

That would take some bottle to trade through that!
  • #9,156
  • Jan 13, 2010 6:37am Jan 13, 2010 6:37am
i back tested 10 years of daily bars for the gu - two different trailers one over 20 days, the other over 50 days

over 10 years - total pipage was in the 5 digits for both.......

Quoting Sauron
Have you ever tested how many H4 IB candles give 20:1 with trailing over a year?
You need extremely huge trends which take place maybe once every two years for one very profitable trade. But you need 13.
  • #9,157
  • Jan 13, 2010 6:39am Jan 13, 2010 6:39am
Quoting razorboy
what was the pipage on these trades.......also, I probably would not trust anything other than a manual backtest, unless the basis for the test is actually tick data
Yeah, manual and foward test, there is no any back test provide the real result,

TipTop
  • #9,158
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:29am Jan 13, 2010 7:29am
Quoting razorboy
what was the pipage on these trades.......also, I probably would not trust anything other than a manual backtest, unless the basis for the test is actually tick data
I dont know the exact pip count for the winning trades,im at work at the moment and cant get to my computer.I will give you the exact figures later tonight.The test im doing is a manual test,i dont know how to program.Some people have told me im wasting my time with this test,but i will carry on and find out for myself!
  • #9,159
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:52am Jan 13, 2010 7:52am
Quoting DemoForever
I dont know the exact pip count for the winning trades,im at work at the moment and cant get to my computer.I will give you the exact figures later tonight.The test im doing is a manual test,i dont know how to program.Some people have told me im wasting my time with this test,but i will carry on and find out for myself!
  • #9,160
  • Jan 13, 2010 9:10am Jan 13, 2010 9:10am
Quoting DemoForever
..Some people have told me im wasting my time with this test,but i will carry on and find out for myself!
Self-reliance is a great trait a trader should have!
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