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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #2,141
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:35pm Jan 11, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting Soondoock
Hi,
What EA did you use for test?
Thanks
self made EA
  • #2,142
  • Jan 11, 2010 3:56pm Jan 11, 2010 3:56pm
Hi Scull,

following your rules i find 2 loss, I certainly made an error but wich ?

thanks

Greg
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture01.jpg Size: 114 KB
  • #2,143
  • Edited Jan 12, 2010 1:37am Jan 11, 2010 4:51pm | Edited Jan 12, 2010 1:37am
Quoting gregart
Hi Scull,

following your rules i find 2 loss, I certainly made an error but wich ?

thanks

Greg
you've drawn from 5-7.15 gmt ? 10 pips buffer ?

i got 2 wins 1 loss this two days (alpari feed)
i would not have taken the short on monday, B/c of S/R line i draw, so 2 wins 0 loosers

you know you dont cancel the second order right ? lokkin at your chart this way, you got 2 loosers 2 winners
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.jpg Size: 67 KB
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #2,144
  • Jan 11, 2010 4:55pm Jan 11, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting hanslachmann
hi,did anyone noitice the big drawdowns in this strategy and how to deal with it?

Very often one loss wipes out many profit trades. attached my ea backtest of gbpusd for 2009
Attachment
Hi Hans
Do you want to take us through how your strategy works? Looks like it shows some great results. Did you write the EA yourself?

I've been lurking on this thread for a long time now before showing myself. Thanks to all the contributors.

Signal
  • #2,145
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:15pm Jan 11, 2010 5:15pm
Hi Hova,

yep 5 to 7:15, 7 pips spread both side, cause the EA can't have one for long, and another for short, Alpari feed too.

But I think i forget to take the two side (short AND long) but if i did, as you said it mean 2 win and 2 loss, so 2*40 loss and 2*30 gain, right ?
  • #2,146
  • Jan 11, 2010 6:32pm Jan 11, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting Hova
you've drawn from 5-7.15 gmt ? 10 pips buffer ?

i got 2 wins 1 loss this two days (alpari feed)
i would not have taken the short on monday, B/c of S/R line i draw, so 2 wins 0 loosers

you know you dont cancel the second order right ? lokkin at your chart this way, you got 2 loosers 2 winners
Gentlemen, my EA optimalization for all 2009 gave me the best results with 15 bufferpips for Buystop and 10 bufferpips for Sellstop.
January 4 and 5 should both be winners
/Hans
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD4_5Jan.GIF Size: 35 KB
  • #2,147
  • Jan 11, 2010 6:43pm Jan 11, 2010 6:43pm
Flyer, can you tell me what EA you are using to move your stop to BE? I have loaded Steve Hopwood's Multipurpose Trade Manager but I can't get the sour look of that little fellow's face.
  • #2,148
  • Jan 11, 2010 6:52pm Jan 11, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting Reas
Hi Hans,

To me these are no big drawdowns.
The numbers your backtest produce are awesome and allmost to good to be true!!!
Every system has its wins and its losses, it's been said here often before, the losses (and drawdowns) are there, you cannot avoid them.

Its all just a matter of apply-ing your capital to this "edge" if you think that your backtest is sound and reliable.

Although i would advise you to start with caution, and not risk to much until you are convident that your test did reflect real market conditions.
Hi, this is an example of what i mean (see photo).. March 23 and 24th 2009 .. stop loss between 100-150 pips. Take profit is 30/60 pips (avg. 45 pips) some 4:1 loss win ratio
I trailed the SL on 24th to a looser. I will possibly change trailing method in the EA, but depends on backtest results.
/Hans
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD23mar.GIF Size: 37 KB
  • #2,149
  • Jan 11, 2010 10:10pm Jan 11, 2010 10:10pm
Flyie, please ignore my last question. I just tickled the little bloke and he now has a grin from ear to ear.
  • #2,150
  • Jan 12, 2010 12:12am Jan 12, 2010 12:12am
Quoting Zuke
Im not a great believer in back testing but did do a back test going back 1 year. I use an 8 point (5 pips and spread..typically 3 pips) buffer.

Todays trade was filled at:

Long: 1.6108
SL: 1.6058
TP: 1.6208

This is currently +48 as I post, however in my start, I do not move my stop to breakeven. I leave my trades to "ride or die" and will close at either 6208, 6058 or the close of 23:00 candle.

Lets see how it pans out! good trading all
Yesterday tested my patience (and sanity!) to the limit but showed how difficult psychologically trading can be. So as you all know, I have a "ride or die" approach to the breakout shooting for 100 pips and not moving my stoploss to breakeven at any time. Yesterday, price hit resistance at the 1.6183 area and despite trading higher at around 1.93 it then retraced all the way back down to the 23:00 close of 1.611.

This gave me a massive 3 pips for a days trade!!! Was I dissapointed? Of course!! However, Im not tearing my hair out about it as this is simply the risk that Im prepared to take in the quest to get as many pips as possible out of the breakout. Im also glad that I wasnt at my desk yesterday and hence was not tempted to intervene when the trade was going wrong! Although this might have saved me some pips, in the long run, the psychological effects of intervening end up with most traders taking profits too early.

So in summary, my 3 hard erned pips are cherished even though I came within 15 pips of my 100 pip target!

Thus far my results for Jan are:

4th Jan: 100
5th Jan: 100
6th Jan: -50
7th Jan: 10
8th Jan: 100
11th Jan: 3

Total Pips so far +263
  • #2,151
  • Jan 12, 2010 12:21am Jan 12, 2010 12:21am
Quoting gregart
Hi Scull,

following your rules i find 2 loss, I certainly made an error but wich ?

thanks

Greg
Greg i do not know where you made the mistake, but it is def 5 wins, 1 loss.

Mon - -40
Tue - +30
Wed - +30
Thu - +30
Fri - +30
Mon - +30
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #2,152
  • Jan 12, 2010 12:25am Jan 12, 2010 12:25am
Quoting Zuke
Yesterday tested my patience (and sanity!) to the limit but showed how difficult psychologically trading can be. So as you all know, I have a "ride or die" approach to the breakout shooting for 100 pips and not moving my stoploss to breakeven at any time. Yesterday, price hit resistance at the 1.6183 area and despite trading higher at around 1.93 it then retraced all the way back down to the 23:00 close of 1.611.

This gave me a massive 3 pips for a days trade!!! Was I dissapointed? Of course!! However, Im not tearing my hair out about it as...
Thanks Zuke.

I will be following this with interest.

Have you got stats for 2009 ?

Kind regards.
  • #2,153
  • Jan 12, 2010 1:28am Jan 12, 2010 1:28am
Quoting hanslachmann
Hi, this is an example of what i mean (see photo).. March 23 and 24th 2009 .. stop loss between 100-150 pips. Take profit is 30/60 pips (avg. 45 pips) some 4:1 loss win ratio
I trailed the SL on 24th to a looser. I will possibly change trailing method in the EA, but depends on backtest results.
/Hans
Attachment
Good Morning Hanslachmann,
Can you share your Ea for testing? And do you use any MA filter for your trades though EA?
Cheers
The Road appears under the steps of walking men...
  • #2,154
  • Jan 12, 2010 1:38am Jan 12, 2010 1:38am
Quoting Scullmeister
Greg i do not know where you made the mistake, but it is def 5 wins, 1 loss.

Mon - -40
Tue - +30
Wed - +30
Thu - +30
Fri - +30
Mon - +30
looser on monday ? I got one @ the 6th

Quote
Hi Hova,

yep 5 to 7:15, 7 pips spread both side, cause the EA can't have one for long, and another for short, Alpari feed too.

But I think i forget to take the two side (short AND long) but if i did, as you said it mean 2 win and 2 loss, so 2*40 loss and 2*30 gain, right ?
hmm....lookin at my chart i got a winner on 4th and 5th, but a looser on the 6th
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.jpg Size: 67 KB
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #2,155
  • Jan 12, 2010 1:43am Jan 12, 2010 1:43am
Quoting Hova
looser on monday ? I got one @ the 6th

hmm....lookin at my chart i got a winner on 4th and 5th, but a looser on the 6th
As stated in my very first post many moons ago, i use IG charts, so my short activated and it then shot up and went long. It all depends on your broker and spread i guess. I trade this live and my results for the month are my actual live results using IG.

Not to worry, depending on your broker we may always get different results, but if you use IG they will be same as mine. You may even get better results than me using a different company, i don't know.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #2,156
  • Jan 12, 2010 1:48am Jan 12, 2010 1:48am
Quoting Scullmeister
As stated in my very first post many moons ago, i use IG charts, so my short activated and it then shot up and went long. It all depends on your broker and spread i guess. I trade this live and my results for the month are my actual live results using IG.

Not to worry, depending on your broker we may always get different results, but if you use IG they will be same as mine. You may even get better results than me using a different company, i don't know.

I think you got a good reason to use IG and no MT4 broker ?



....seems that price is stalling around 1.61 zzZZzz let me get some coffee
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #2,157
  • Jan 12, 2010 2:05am Jan 12, 2010 2:05am
I'm just happy that IBFX brought inter day hedging back.

On a day like today I would have changed my entry order at least 3 times already.
  • #2,158
  • Jan 12, 2010 2:56am Jan 12, 2010 2:56am
Quoting hanslachmann
Hi, this is an example of what i mean (see photo).. March 23 and 24th 2009 .. stop loss between 100-150 pips. Take profit is 30/60 pips (avg. 45 pips) some 4:1 loss win ratio
I trailed the SL on 24th to a looser. I will possibly change trailing method in the EA, but depends on backtest results.
/Hans
Attachment
Hi Hans,

I see what you mean, but you have to look at the long term.
You always will have loosers, but in the long run you win, and that's the key.
Sure, you can change your trailing method, test it and maybe you will see some better results.
But remember that the results you have right now are stunning! and are almost to good to be true.
If your results with real trading are only half of what you have tested, i think you should still be very happy.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #2,159
  • Jan 12, 2010 3:04am Jan 12, 2010 3:04am
Quoting Hova
looser on monday ? I got one @ the 6th

hmm....lookin at my chart i got a winner on 4th and 5th, but a looser on the 6th
Hi Hova

Can you tell me what Indicator you used to create your breakout box with high/low/ and range figures please?
  • #2,160
  • Jan 12, 2010 3:22am Jan 12, 2010 3:22am
Well, first loss for me this year.

Not bad.

See you tomorrow.

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