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GBP/USD Real-time Sentiment

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 11, 2010 2:47pm Jan 10, 2010 3:12am | Edited Jan 11, 2010 2:47pm

This Image Updates Automatically

http://newsppr.com/example26.png

  • #2
  • Jan 10, 2010 3:25am Jan 10, 2010 3:25am
What you see above will be the real-time sentiment for the GBP/USD. Data is gathered from user input as well as other sources (e.g. twitter). The number of sources right now is small, but I'll be continually looking for more sources of data and adding it to the project.

This project is a part of a larger personal research/project of mine dealing with real-time data (@ newsppr.com). I'm starting the project with forex only because it seems to be the easiest to determine social sentiment. As far as I know this will be the first of its kind (correct me if I'm wrong =P so I can throw in the towel)

Well... we'll see how this goes
  • #3
  • Jan 10, 2010 3:44am Jan 10, 2010 3:44am
Happy New Year!! Ha!! i got all my pips for christmas... Now time to "Buy till March"
  • #4
  • Jan 10, 2010 3:08pm Jan 10, 2010 3:08pm
Okay so just a quick update... the official start time will be 00:00:00 GMT and this time it won't update every tick , but rather every 5Min. That's only because of my current server limitations. Once I can pay for better servers I'll change the update time to every tick. Data for only the past 24 hours will be visible.
  • #5
  • Jan 10, 2010 3:12pm Jan 10, 2010 3:12pm
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting MoForce
Okay so just a quick update... the official start time will be 00:00:00 GMT and this time it won't update every tick , but rather every 5Min. That's only because of my current server limitations. Once I can pay for better servers I'll change the update time to every tick. Data for only the past 24 hours will be visible.
Could you explain how to read the chart?
Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #6
  • Jan 10, 2010 3:23pm Jan 10, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting Now
Could you explain how to read the chart?
At this time anything on the chart is just me testing to make sure everything is working, but once there's data this is how it'll go...

The green line will be the current value of the GBP/USD pair. The orange-red line is the Sentiment. Overall if it's > 0 that means people's "mood" or "thoughts" are net long. If it's < 0 it's net short. Of course, there are fluctuations too showing how much long or short. I can't really give too much details simply because I don't know what to expect. Once live, if you see any patterns emerge, please let us know.
  • #7
  • Jan 10, 2010 6:42pm Jan 10, 2010 6:42pm
hmm looks like I didn't program something right =P I'll figure it out... either way it's only the GBP/USD data that's not showing. The sentiment should be accurate.
  • #8
  • Jan 10, 2010 8:14pm Jan 10, 2010 8:14pm
Just looking at the chart right now you can see the sentiment is almost at +30 meaning people are thinking G/U will be heading upwards. Btw, yeah I just realized the x-axis labels overlap... i'll figure out how to get around that
  • #9
  • Jan 11, 2010 3:52pm Jan 11, 2010 3:52pm
Great news! I finally got the currency data working! So everything should work now... x scale is still Time with 5min intervals
  • #10
  • Jan 11, 2010 4:38pm Jan 11, 2010 4:38pm
LOL, I see we have a "cross" as price reverses to catch the bulls unaware.

Nice to see someone trying something a little out of the ordinary "box" here.
  • #11
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:54pm Jan 11, 2010 5:54pm
Quoting bit9ret
LOL, I see we have a "cross" as price reverses to catch the bulls unaware.

Nice to see someone trying something a little out of the ordinary "box" here.
Thanks! Btw, did you see what happened to the price? It jumped right back and since then people have been thinking of going short... and surprise surprise GU starts heading down lol

I'd say with a week or so of data we should be able to use the info as actual indicators

Also... I'm not sure at this point we can really use any kind of crosses since the scales end up changing anyway. It's probably best to just look at overall direction and current position for now
  • #12
  • Jan 11, 2010 6:19pm Jan 11, 2010 6:19pm
You're right. My "cross" comment was a parody or ironic comment about myself, knowing that the scales will be switching around making crosses a bit silly (like Gann angles being completely dependent on the x/y scaling of a chart, etc., i.e. not that valid).

Are you thinking of using this expecting price to follow the sentiment line? If your sentiment data are very short term, that may be the way to go, rather than treating excess sentiment as something to be faded, as sentiment is usually used.

So far it seems to be working this way, ie. price following sentiment (ie. one would fade price deviations from sentiment, which is equal to the real trend in this case).

Guess, will have to see. An interesting experiment here in "price discovery...."
  • #13
  • Jan 11, 2010 8:10pm Jan 11, 2010 8:10pm
Interesting thought

btw, check it out! It's like some kind of profit taking is going on rofl
  • #14
  • Jan 11, 2010 9:56pm Jan 11, 2010 9:56pm
Just a quick vote... should I put a grid on the graph or not? I think it's better without it... it looks cleaner
  • #15
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:51pm Jan 12, 2010 4:51pm
=D I went long when the Sentiment crossed over into positive territory woohooo it works!
  • #16
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:56pm Jan 12, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting Reznik
Happy New Year!! Ha!! i got all my pips for christmas... Now time to "Buy till March"
Can you explain "Buy till March"? Are you expecting a bull market?

jdd123
  • #17
  • Jan 12, 2010 6:52pm Jan 12, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting MoForce
=D I went long when the Sentiment crossed over into positive territory woohooo it works!
LOL!

Since not a lot of folks are paying much attention to your idea, it probably works bigtime. Ha, ha, ha.

Great idea, esp. because GU price action the last few months has had a big garbage factor (lot of weird behaviour).

Wonder if bank algos are dominating the GU market now, trading statistically off non-price realtime macro data, re the bond market and live interest rate and yield curve differentials--and NOT price charts. This might explain the GU mess. If so, your idea to use a realtime non-price data source has a LOT of merit. A real edge here.

Do you have some sort of text recognition algo that can recognize and total up bullish vs. bearish comments in Twitter and newspaper/web news on the GU?
  • #18
  • Jan 12, 2010 9:13pm Jan 12, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting bit9ret
LOL!

Since not a lot of folks are paying much attention to your idea, it probably works bigtime. Ha, ha, ha.

Great idea, esp. because GU price action the last few months has had a big garbage factor (lot of weird behaviour).

Wonder if bank algos are dominating the GU market now, trading statistically off non-price realtime macro data, re the bond market and live interest rate and yield curve differentials--and NOT price charts. This might explain the GU mess. If so, your idea to use a realtime non-price data source has a LOT of merit. A...
Thanks! It actually is somewhat disappointing to not see that much interest in it... I was planing on server upgrades through some kind of revenue to push this into an actual real-time stream.

When you put it that way though lol maybe a lack of interest is a good thing rofl. We still have to see how it works in the long run. So far 28hours+ of data looks good.

Yes, I've got some, what I consider to be very primitive at this time lol, text recognition going on. What i'm more into right now is implementing more data streams. I can't think of any other possible sources of input besides what I have now and I guess... forums? I'm not sure how I'll be able to get data from forums unless it were put into some kind of rss feed or something.
  • #19
  • Jan 12, 2010 9:25pm Jan 12, 2010 9:25pm
is this perhaps:

http://www.forexlive.com/category/all

Regularly updated. Fairly authoritative, etc.
  • #20
  • Jan 12, 2010 9:45pm Jan 12, 2010 9:45pm
Quoting bit9ret
is this perhaps:

http://www.forexlive.com/category/all

Regularly updated. Fairly authoritative, etc.
This could work! Thanks! Btw, why does it look like that chris wilkinson fella is the only one submitting stuff? lol also jamie coleman

Edit: Ahhh I see... there are user sumitted articles and comments too
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