statEDGE© indicator / using math to skew the odds into traders favor

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I just love coding. I have coded a ton of things,
but 99% of time they was bassicaly a waste of time......except I
learned to code realy well after a year+ of doing it.
And yes...I was searching for the holly grail, didnt we all!???
(sadly, I didnt find one)

This indicator is certanly not a holy grail either!
Since I love math and logics cos they dont lie, I figured, hey....
let me code some statistical indicator based only on math...after all,
isnt a trading just a form of game with the odds 50-50....ok, maybe smaller,
ratio is skewed to broker advantage (aka spreads).
(And no, Im not saying the market is a random game cos it is NOT!!!)

I tested all bar types and formations, using statistical math
to get a ratios and percentages of them across all pairs, all timeframes
and the math is saying that there is no edge in any of them...
I tested bars after the "signal" from combos of bars....
I "exactly" know how many times will some signal occur in last x bars of testing......
I know what is the possibility of type of bar after the signal.....
I know what average range of that bar will be...etc...
But, I didnt find a one solid edge with all that testing!

Indicators are something I dont even need to test to know that
you want find a adge in them...I dont use them!!!

I coded this with the things I do use for trading......

Those are;
-Average daily range
-Fib ratios
-Inside and outside bars
-Digital signal processing(for noise filtering), but it is used only
in another indicator wich combines all of the things above and signals
to buy or sell...will talk about that later.

After a lot of work, this is what it looks alike...........
Ill talk about it later...see ya

As you see on picture, the lines are drawn from the daily bar open.
From there i added a fib ratios aplied to average daily range.
The white mid space between gray rectangles is average range
added around daily open, while gray adds above and below is daily range added
to daily open but directionaly.

Blue and orange lines are breaking the daily range into 25% increments.
From the left, you have a comments about range, and in it there is a
text Pips for each 25% range:x pips....
So, if price has moved fro 25% to 50% you know that pair moved x pips.
Also, the first 10 comments are about the range...it is divided into 25%
ranges.....from x % to x%....if you look at it, you will see that the most probable range for that pair happens
from 50% to 75% level, and from 75% to 100%. So, it will be advisable to trade in that range....
that is a total of 50% of average daily range....we know that each 25% increment have a
Pips for each 25% range: 23.98 ......so.....50% is a 48 pips.
Once you know this it will be a easy task to put a SL and TP levels to your trades that has a highest ratio of succes!
You dont need to calculate this manualy....the colored text from the right
will give you a highest probability TP and SL for you trade in real time.

The colored text from the right side ;
-CURRENT PRICE
-BAR TIMER
-CURRENT DAILY RANGE FROM HIGH TO LOW
-AT WHAT LEVEL IS CURENT PRICE
-PREFERED TP(CONSTANTLY UPDATED)
-PREFERED SL(CONSTANTLY UPDATED)

The comments from the left side ;
-FIRST 10 SLOTS ARE AVERAGE DAILY RANGE DIVIDED INTO 25% INCREMENTS.....
THE NUMBER AT THE END IS TELLING YOU WHAT IS A PERCENTAGE OF SCENARIO(10 OF THEM).
-BARS USED FOR CALCULATION
-WEEKLY AVERAGE RANGE
-AVERAGE DAILY RANGE
-PIPS FOR EACH 25% RANGE
-AvRange of Bar after the Bullish INSIDEBAR
-AvRange of Bar after the Bearish INSIDEBAR
-AvRange of Bar after the Bullish OUTSIDEBAR
-AvRange of Bar after the Bearish OUTSIDEBAR

INSIDE AND OUTSIDE BARS ARE USED FOR A REASON....THEY ARE THE BEST
SIGNALS BASED ON MY TESTINGS I TALKED ABOUT EARLIER.....

See ya later.....BRB

This is a result of pure statistics and digital signal procesing.....
take a note of red and green dots and crosses.
Take a note that the signal indicator doesnt have any external variables.
It is fully self adjusting.....it adjusts itself based on dinamic range, multiple TFs,
with adaptive oversold vs overbought figured internally using fibonacci sequence and digital signal procesing cycle searcher .

The beauty off it is that it will not change a signal position no matter what TF are you using....signal is signal no matter what TF!!!

Solid dot-normal signal
Crosshair-strong signal
Dot in midlle of Crosshair-super signal

will post charts for other pairs after.........

Most of main pairs just to show what it does;

ps; You can send me any possible pair, date and TF you want to test this with and I will do it! Works for any pair and tf any market.

Some more charts.......

and some more.......

There are a lot of uses for this indicator.....
Lets say you open your platform and you want to trade EU....
You check the daily range and it is already above 25% above normal
(aka 125% daily range)....it would be a stupid thing to trade a buy
if the price is already at upper level of range with already 25% movement
above average! If your system gives you a signal to sell, it is easy to visualy
inspect the pair, check the fib and ratio, and execute a trade with preferable SL and TP.

If you do a pair trading strategy it is so much easyer to visualy see
the pairs ins and outs. It is exteremly easy to spot a performing pair versus
others or a pair that underperformed....
There is a load of advantages using this type of indicator.

Check the pic.......

FF,

Are the signal alerts placed in a fixed position at the close of the candle shown on your examples or do they move?

Do you offer a free time trial?

Hi Glynt....
I was thinking about making a video of it so everybody can be asured
about that this system is NON REPAINTING, and like I said you can even
switch TFs and signals wont change....code is using multiple TFs for
confirmation.....

Regarding the trials....I dont think so...to much of my codes was decompiled in past, I even saw one EA of mine publicaly sold.....sorry.

I think the video will remove any suspicion of its signal quality!!!
Ill probably leave MT4 working for a day and put an EA on it to make a snapshot of screen every minute on 15min TF,
and then put those screenshots into a fast video.....

Regards

Hi ForexFlash,

Have always been impressed by your other work and coding skill (VSA), and this seems quite interesting - and different! Yes, a video would be useful. Looking forward to it.

Regards
Pardy

FF,
In your introductory post you mention that your indi is based around your trading technique of using ibs and ob's amongst other stuff and thats included within your indi. Bit difficult to see in most of your charts here but in that last 4some of 30M charts it did'nt appear to be using a 30M ib to create the signal....is that because the ib/ob may have been on another timeframe? ....You did mention that the signal is timeframe independent if I understood correctly.

The IB & OBs are something I love to play(I coded this for personal usage)....but they are not used for signals! If someone is not interested in those I can easily remove them from the code, or add any other type of bar or combo of bars!

In simpler words, signals are given based on daily range statistics, dinamic OB % OS levels calculated from fibo(again math probability), and some advanced digital procesing code for cycle calculations.

Regards

FF,

Very cool. I can already see the hard work you put into this. I am anxious to see your video.

Thanks for you efforts.

yup, looking forward to the video too!

Is this indicator is as simple as place an order when a dot/cross-hair appears?

You said dot is a normal signal. What does that mean from placing orders point of view?

Has this been back-tested for at least 5 years.

Is this indicator is as simple as place an order when a dot/cross-hair appears?

No! This code intention is to "skew" the odds into traders favor!
Like I said, the range probabilty is something "out of the box" thinking
based on pure probability! If you know that a range from 50% to 75%
of a pair avg daily range has a greatest possibility for a directional trade,
that gives you a add on "probability skew" to any system you use.
The graphical representation is a story for itself.....look at the multy screen setup I posted earlier.....It makes a life much more easier
when playing the pairs trade! The other great thing about the indicator is
that it will give you a best possible scenario for a trade SL and TP....
it is updated constantly regarding the pair current position, it uses a
fib ratio and range ratio to calculate them!

You said dot is a normal signal. What does that mean from placing orders point of view?

It is all about probability.....I already wrote about the signals quality!

Has this been back-tested for at least 5 years.

Yes, this has been tested for last 25 years...LOL....dont get this the wrong way, but honestly....when did you saw or purchased a "out of the box" indicator wich is backtested for 5 years!???.....hell, tell me about one code that is tested for at least 2-3 years, and it is proven to be profitable cos I will purchase it myself instantly!

I will not sell this code untill I prove it is worth anybodys money!!!
So stay tuned for a week or two, and you be the judge.....Im not pushing anyone into this...

Take it easy......see ya

One of the uses....

Check the pic....it is easy to see that either GU is undervalued or
EU overvalued, but since EU is already @ 127% of daily range
the probability is on EU side....it will probably retrace some 30-50 pips!

Well....initial run was some 20 pips, and since GU is ranging around same price,
we coud easily see more downmomentum on EU.

Logical, I like..

Dots are just ideas to buy/sell?

Looking at some of the charts you posted where the dot/cross hair appears i thought your indicator can used as standalone (if seeing is believing )

I am not sure about the commercial EA's but when code something i try to test with as much data as possible. So far i have seen you require the code to run through at least 3 years of data to make sure it really does what is supposed to