Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1425 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #28,481
  • Jan 8, 2010 12:16pm Jan 8, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting PippiNole
Looks like this thread is attracting some really good women traders. Maybe I can pick up a sugar mama!
Down, you old fart! Quit trying to cut in on my turf.
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #28,482
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:15pm Jan 8, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting PippiNole
Looks like this thread is attracting some really good women traders. Maybe I can pick up a sugar mama!
Quoting cisco
Down, you old fart! Quit trying to cut in on my turf.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #28,483
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:33pm Jan 8, 2010 1:33pm
Quote
If you notice at the top of the run, your following m15 candle was a DBHLC candle.
I am having trouble grasping what makes a DBHLC candle. Can you post an example?

As always, thank you
  • #28,484
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:09pm Jan 8, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting MaximusPips
I am having trouble grasping what makes a DBHLC candle. Can you post an example?

As always, thank you
Sure
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: DBLHC.jpg Size: 144 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #28,485
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:30pm Jan 8, 2010 3:30pm
Thanks Ken,

I am having trouble seeing it on Fri's chart. When I look at the run up on Fri I don't see equal tops where it turned. Am I mistaken in where the candles are located.

Thank you
maximus
  • #28,486
  • Jan 8, 2010 6:00pm Jan 8, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Sure
Good explanation. I usually wait for the close on second bar to give further confirmation to enter, and watch the swings, support / resistance to exit trade.
  • #28,487
  • Jan 9, 2010 3:54am Jan 9, 2010 3:54am
Quoting MaximusPips
Thanks Ken,

I am having trouble seeing it on Fri's chart. When I look at the run up on Fri I don't see equal tops where it turned. Am I mistaken in where the candles are located.

Thank you
maximus
Yes a lot of times we hear DBHLC or DBLHC And it isn't a perfect example the main difference we see is that the closes aren't always engulfing. But for most people those are the definitons they are refering to . Because a lot of the traders here started with James 16 thread and that is where those patterns are talked about the most and those are his posts. The Pictures of the bars.

But you will hear it when candles that close tight together on one end usually within a pip or two called that even IB (Harami's) Just use the information here as a heads up the main thing they are saying is that the second candle didn't make a higher high ot a lower low. Then look for entry sometimes up the body, but your stop is key as it can be tight using the previous candles top or bottom as a line in the sand.

Hope this helps Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #28,488
  • Jan 9, 2010 4:36am Jan 9, 2010 4:36am
#379 (permalink) Today, 03:38 AM
pippist

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: earth
Posts: 3



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hi kenneth,
please correct me if my understanding is wrong

difference between 35/50 cross and reverse and 35/50 spike through

Don't know of a 35/50 spike through trade in this system.
The only 35/50 we talk about is a reversal trade. The trade even if it breaks the 35/50 area and continues on past the 35/50 usually retest that breakout. That retest and the failure to cross back through the 35/50 is you sugnal that the trade is juat a scalp and you now have the choice to revers the trade and continue with price with the trend.

The 35/50 is a retracemnet entry. price has trended for a little while then it reverses about 1/2 the move nad during that move back or retracement . Web get one single candle that piushes through both the 35 sma and the 50 ema. The trade says to wait for the close and then enter opposite back towards the ma's. You will find that at times the price doesn't wait and turns before the close.

So you take the trade back towards the MA's but as you said sometimes it doesn't clear the otherside and just bounces off the MA's then turns back and continues it's retracement turning into a reversal. But the retest was a 35/50 trade it did reverse it just didn't go very far. When you see it bounce off the MA's time to rethink the trade / Close with a small gain reverse but the main goal at the start of every trade is to not lose anything.

But if the 35/50 reversal trade does cross back over the ma's like it should then it should make a new high and your profit target should be choosen off your higher time frame charts. The Next S/R line Then watch PA to see if it will go even Higher.

for 35/50 cross and reverse what happens is when price close above or below 35 and 50 ma with smal wick trade the next candle in opposite direction. normally how many pips can we target for this? because i see the next candle going in opposite direction then again it turns and continues its previous trend.

35/50 spike through

the 35/50 spike through is like even though the price went past all the MA it will come back to 35/50 ma so that we can enter when the price come back touch the MA before it continue with the trend
I have doubt with this.
Is the 35/50 spike through method similar to the 1 o clock and 5 o clock trades?

Yes and No first there isn't a 35/50 spike through trade. What your calling that is when price breaks the 35/50 area then does a retest. If you start to take notice where the MA's are in relationship to the overall price action. If it isn't a decent retracment. it can just blow straight through never looking back. But it is designed to be a at the major fib levels between 38 nd 61 precent . Which is why it almost always bounces at the least.

If it is past those levels it can and does break through only giving a retest.

Then 1 dna 5 O'clock trades are Trend continuation entries . They serve us the chance to get into a trend or trade we may have missed the original entry on. Then price ahs normally consoidated between sessions. Then breaks one way or the other. But you were still asleep or having coffee. So that you sit down you see it has left the bus top with out you.

At that point we start looking for a 1 or 5 O'clock secondary entry. It is normally a retest of a breakout area . One of the best is the previous sessions high or low. Also the break of a S?R line a prveious high or low any PPA can be a rea for a 1 and 5 O'clock trade giving us confirmation to take it on the touch. So always look to your left for PPA.

Price pushes through but we get a rejection of this area because many factors . Stops being hit or profit taking which causes a slight reversal usually one candle sometimes two. It pulls back to the outer lower value MA's 5,10 or 21. We enter on the touch because it reacts fast when it hits those areas as more ppeople jump on the bus to get better entries.

The Ma's should have started to spread out a bit and so your stops are normally placed behind the next MA. If you took the trade off the 5 MA stop behind the 10 plus a couple of pips. Always wait for it to turn back First . We say enter on the touch but really the touch and then when it starts back Because it may not be the 5 might be the 10 or even 21.

Also watch your closes if a candle closes past the outer MA's 5,10 or ,21 it is a sign to us that our trend may be ending. It can continue on after a pause but the chance for a 1or 5 O'clock trade may have passed.The start looking for reversal signals.

last question.

is it only the 1 hr 62 ema strategy and 1 o clock and 5 o clock method the only methods where we enter when the price TOUCH the MA. All the other method we wait for close of the 15 m candle and PA?

Yes within the system this is true. As you can exprience you will see our places to take trades straight away but in the beggining the signals will be your best friends and save you from taking bad trades. They are there to show us what price action is doing . If you stay with this you will start to see why they form and where they form. Which is all the results of price action. That is the difference of the ones making great gains using this system they see the signals forming as most of us have to wait for it whichnis ok it is only the difference of a few pips .

your explanations are nice but i think its my problem in understanding. I read ur explanations and when i try to digest all those i am having hiccups with all these questions... Please do help and advice me when u get time. thanks a million! God Bless!

Hope this helps a little as you can see from the above . The system is one trade entry area leading into the next it is laid out in MY pdf in that fashion so you can get a idea of which trade you can be looking for next with where price is at the time. This way any time we sit down at the computer we should be able to know what is coming up and focus on the one or two posiblities instead of trying to look for all the entries.

Hope your Having a Great Weekend. Ken http://forums.babypips.com/images/smilies/smile.gif
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #28,489
  • Jan 9, 2010 5:04am Jan 9, 2010 5:04am
Thank you Ken. Your explainations as always help to enlighten
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #28,490
  • Jan 9, 2010 7:47am Jan 9, 2010 7:47am
Quoting cisco
Down, you old fart! Quit trying to cut in on my turf.
Who are you calling an old fart? You must have taken a little to much Geritol. If truth be told Mrs. Robinson is the kind neighbor who comes over and changes your Depends for you.
  • #28,491
  • Jan 9, 2010 8:35am Jan 9, 2010 8:35am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Yes a lot of times we hear DBHLC or DBLHC And it isn't a perfect example the main difference we see is that the closes aren't always engulfing. But for most people those are the definitons they are refering to . Because a lot of the traders here started with James 16 thread and that is where those patterns are talked about the most and those are his posts. The Pictures of the bars.

But you will hear it when candles that close tight together on one end usually within a pip or two called that even IB (Harami's) Just use the information here as a...
Hello Ken,

if I get you right a DBHLC can be at the same time a tweezer top, a IB=Harami or a bearish engulfing?
  • #28,492
  • Jan 9, 2010 8:43am Jan 9, 2010 8:43am
Quoting PippiNole
Who are you calling an old fart? You must have taken a little to much Geritol. If truth be told Mrs. Robinson is the kind neighbor who comes over and changes your Depends for you.
Geritol? You really are showing your age. I haven't seen that stuff around for decades!

Yes, Mrs. Robinson and myself have been know to play nurse and patient.
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #28,493
  • Jan 9, 2010 9:04am Jan 9, 2010 9:04am
Quoting MCFly
Hello Ken,

if I get you right a DBHLC can be at the same time a tweezer top, a IB=Harami or a bearish engulfing?

Yes they all get called that at times,,
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #28,494
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:02am Jan 9, 2010 10:02am
I was looking over the charts from yesterdays nfp news action and if I did my homework a little better might have caught that e/j spike. Back to my favorite trusty line charts, when you can get multiple peaks and valleys to line up its Muy Bueno. I was able to catch the euro but got left out on the other two ladies. I am going through the 3 pairs we focus on and putting in some major levels where might see action this week from the line charts, maybe plotting s/r this way can help somebody. You can see from these charts its simple and effective!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,495
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:37am Jan 9, 2010 10:37am
Quoting cisco
Geritol? You really are showing your age. I haven't seen that stuff around for decades!

Yes, Mrs. Robinson and myself have been know to play nurse and patient.
She's been puttin the moves on you for a long time now Cisco lol!!!


Inserted Video
  • #28,496
  • Jan 9, 2010 11:20am Jan 9, 2010 11:20am
Here is a couple of charts to make you think.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: How to trade big 1.jpg Size: 209 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: How to trade big 2..jpg Size: 254 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #28,497
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:00pm Jan 9, 2010 12:00pm
I went back and looked at the chart from Friday on the GBP/USD. If you had taken the Frankfurt open trade when we were at (E) you may have been covered well and added to your trade there. It is worth mentioning that pric had come up during London as normally those moves prior to big news can give a indication of what MAY happen and as we can see it did.

Also we are always saying to use your Higher time frames for entry areas and to pick forProfit targets. As you can see even during a news trade that remains the fact. If you add up all these trades it was over 510 pips.

Also you had a second chance to enter from all the extremes. That is a normal occurence. So if get a late start look for those secondary entries.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: How to trade big 3.jpg Size: 251 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #28,498
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:21pm Jan 9, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting cisco
Geritol? You really are showing your age. I haven't seen that stuff around for decades!

Yes, Mrs. Robinson and myself have been know to play nurse and patient.
Old timers must be setting in on you because your memory is slipping! Here is a quote from you from less than a month ago.


"Geritol on the rocks. Tried and true pick me up!"
  • #28,499
  • Jan 9, 2010 1:10pm Jan 9, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
I went back and looked at the chart from Friday on the GBP/USD. If you had taken the Frankfurt open trade when we were at (E) you may have been covered well and added to your trade there. It is worth mentioning that pric had come up during London as normally those moves prior to big news can give a indication of what MAY happen and as we can see it did.

Also we are always saying to use your Higher time frames for entry areas and to pick forProfit targets. As you can see even during a news trade that remains the fact. If you add up all these trades...
Ken nice chart again but I have a question regarding entry B. I think the optimal entry point is when the price comes back to the 5 ema. It would be a textbook 1 o'clock trade when there wouldn't be the previous candle (shooting star) and the 1 hr 62 ema. When the price comes down to the 5 ema after the shooting star which has tested the 1 hr 62 ema it looks very bearish to me. What is the reason for being sure that the 1 o'clock trade will play out? I don't think you take every 1 or 5 o'clock trade chance and in this case I would feel that I take a risky trade and so I would stay at the side line.
The candle after your entry candle opens above the 1 hr 62 ema and moves up. Now there's the point I would take the trade maybe arround 5980. Do you think the entry is too late and it's better to wait for a new seat?

I hope you know what I'm meaning. My english knowledge is still limited
  • #28,500
  • Jan 9, 2010 4:18pm Jan 9, 2010 4:18pm
MCFly;Ken nice chart again but I have a question regarding entry B. I think the optimal entry point is when the price comes back to the 5 ema. It would be a textbook 1 o'clock trade when there wouldn't be the previous candle (shooting star) and the 1 hr 62 ema. When the price comes down to the 5 ema after the shooting star which has tested the 1 hr 62 ema it looks very bearish to me.

Yes you are right, and I know a few people that took a short off that shooting star. But think a minute what is a 62 ema trade it is a retracement trade, and really the 62 ema is not in the right place for that trade. Also we have that PPA line right below the low of the next candle where we would take the 1:00 oclock trade off the 5 ema. Also the shooting star closed above the 200 sma. which is equal to the 50 SMA on the 1 Hr. MA's off higher time frames carry more importance.

But every trade carries a risk. But your stop is always tight on this trades. If it closed below the 5 ema then we could close with a minor loss.

What is the reason for being sure that the 1 o'clock trade will play out? I don't think you take every 1 or 5 o'clock trade chance and in this case I would feel that I take a risky trade and so I would stay at the side line.

I always look for first PPA of a retest area after a break which is normally why we get the 1 and 5 O'clock trades. You break a area stops get tripped sellers come in. But buyers are stronger and it continues on after a quick bounce of our MA.

Staying flat because your uncertian is a good position You will soon enough start to see what you need to. It is more important to be confident than to take every trade.

The candle after your entry candle opens above the 1 hr 62 ema and moves up. Now there's the point I would take the trade maybe arround 5980. Do you think the entry is too late and it's better to wait for a new seat?

I think like we talked the other day about. The closer you enter to your stop the better your entry. In this case that PPA line and the 200 sma is what I would take into consideration to place my stop even from that entry. To lose less is the same as making more profit. So for me it is better to take the risk earlier with a tighter stop.

I hope you know what I'm meaning. My english knowledge is still limited

I hope this helps, Just remember until you feel you real see PA taking place there is know shame in sitting aside.

Take Care Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
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