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  • #179,161
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:58pm Jan 8, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting balance
it's a lot of money for me , and i know that i did the most stupid thing ever in trading but right now i'm stuck here , i think now it's better to wait , thank you for the advices from now on u should be sure that that is the way i am going to trade
I'm not teacher of anyone. Here, no one is teacher. Everyone must do his own way in the Forex and find the best trading model according to his personality.
But there are some universal things in Forex.

1 - Never be in trade with money that you cannot loose.
2 - Forex is not gambling. For that there is Vegas, Poker, Casinos... Forex is investment with possible high return. Look for 5% a month, not doubling your account (IBFX has a monthly competition. Ther offer 3500$ to the most profitable trader with mini accont. Why? They know that the traderes will take lots of risk to win and they will blow up the accont. In the monthly statment just near 10% are profitable. Al the other loosed money and the majority blewed the accont. Good money for the broker!).
3 - Forex is not easy money.
4 - Greed and fear are emotions that should be erradicated of traders. But, if one of those must be in, so that be fear.
5 - With a win trade don't be euforic; with a loss trade, don't be panic. Accept you losses as you accept your wins.
6 - Before a trade, please think in a plan. If necessary write it. Answer these questions: a) At what level i will be in and why? b) What do i want for this trade? is a long term trade? is a day trade? is a scalp? c) According the answer define your profit target and your STOP LOSS. d) Go to your life.
7 - Never go into a trade because someone in FF say "short at 1,4444, TP 1,333, SL 1,555. That is their plan, not yours. They have a strategy to handle the trade that you do not know. If you cannot do it, please, don't trade (usless you feel excited by loosing money).


Now my advise. Close your order as soon as possible. Don't tell your wife about that. Stop trading for a week. Get drunk. Relax. Begin to read things about forex chart: support and resistancies, trend, money management. Find pattern in the charts. Stop thinking in buy or sell and start to think in buyers and sellers. Who are they? Understand the importance of volume. Demotrade as time as necessary until you feel confidant that you have find a profitable strategy (not the grail). Create a plan. Follow and respect it everitime.

This is easy to say. I think the majority of us have been in similar situations. Is not easy, but the good thing is that we can learn something with it.
  • #179,162
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:04pm Jan 8, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting RonDeco
I'm not teacher of anyone. Here, no one is teacher. Everyone must do his own way in the Forex and find the best trading model according to his personality.
But there are some universal things in Forex.

1 - Never be in trade with money that you cannot loose.
2 - Forex is not gambling. For that there is Vegas, Poker, Casinos... Forex is investment with possible high return. Look for 5% a month, not doubling your account (IBFX...
the last two posts have been very helpful to me as a newbie trader too... ive been caught early on when i started over leveraging (not to such a degree as above but nevertheless i knew i did it wrong and have remedied it since).

where do you get volume statistics from by the way?
  • #179,163
  • Jan 8, 2010 7:01pm Jan 8, 2010 7:01pm
A hedge is just that. It is the offsetting of positions that affords no opportunity for gain or risk so long as they are in place. That does not mean you can get married to the hedge. But it can provide the market conditions or time to redraft the plan. This assumes that one has adequate idle capital to deploy it and use it properly. I agree if someone buries their head in the sand "pretending" they are fine, there is a problem. If someone acts that way in trading they are going to be broke no matter what they do.

There is a significant difference between working out of a hedge and booking the loss. It does require skill and patience and it is a great teacher. It also builds incredible confidence in working through a bad situation and can be quite positive.

Hedging positions to control market risk is as old as the markets themselves.

But I am an odd duck. I aim for every trade to be profitable and work it if I need too. I do not use stops, I average trades if needed and will trade both long and short at the same time. My cash management and risk plan allow for all this without worries.

I prefer to know that every time I take on a position as part of a trade, my trade will be profitable. I prefer that over X%.

Have a great weekend.
BR

Quoting Rabax
Ok, I said I will not comment any more, but I do have some remarks, for which I believe are significant:

1. HEDGE = CLOSE positions, the result is the same, only that with HEDGE you pay the spread again to the broker. It's only the "psychological" image in our head that gives us the appearance that we did not create and take a loss. But in reality we did.

2. You ALREADY LOST the money, since EQUITY is your actual money, not the BALANCE, which won't change if you don't close the position. But at any moment in time only EQUITY is the actual...
  • #179,164
  • Jan 8, 2010 7:54pm Jan 8, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting Big1red9

There is a significant difference between working out of a hedge and booking the loss.
I'm with Rabax. Holding two exactly opposing positions at the same time is the same as holding neither. This is not hedging - the word is constantly misused here. Hedging is about cancelling out an aspect of risk within a more complex position, not completely neutralising the position (which is the same as closing it). Here's a good example from Wikipedia:

"decides to invest in a company in, for example, Brazil, but does not want to necessarily invest in the Brazilian currency. [...] can separate out the credit risk (i.e. the risk of the company defaulting), from the currency risk of the Brazilian Real by "hedging" out the currency risk. In effect, this means that the investment is effectively a USD investment, in Brazil. Hedging allows the investor to transfer the currency risk to someone else, who wants to take up a position in the currency."
  • #179,165
  • Jan 8, 2010 8:24pm Jan 8, 2010 8:24pm
Well... following my analysis..
1.4350 could be a good number for next week (50% fib ret), Euro still weak i think, so a 100% fib ret could be possible, i'll add to this position if i see a continuation comming... But anyway, 1.4300 is really an easy target. The only thing that keeps me on guard is the last fast movement... if that momentum generates a breakout from the current channel then i'm buying to recover losses from this sell.
What do you think guys?
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  • #179,166
  • Jan 8, 2010 10:03pm Jan 8, 2010 10:03pm
Quoting cacus
Well... following my analysis..
1.4350 could be a good number for next week (50% fib ret), Euro still weak i think, so a 100% fib ret could be possible, i'll add to this position if i see a continuation comming... But anyway, 1.4300 is really an easy target. The only thing that keeps me on guard is the last fast movement... if that momentum generates a breakout from the current channel then i'm buying to recover losses from this sell.
What do you think guys?
May I ask what is this S/R indicator on your chart, looks interesting, many thanks...
  • #179,167
  • Edited 11:42pm Jan 8, 2010 11:18pm | Edited 11:42pm
Morning to all.
just checking what have happened last day , nothing special to avoid the great fall yet.Giving away more opportunities to traders to make money by simply few more sideways than ever expected at this regions ? perhaps .

fundamentally ,though knew nothing or even not seeing the major events in the calender , the nfp yesterday, I expected it all worst from before because the market seemed in bottle neck condition & no way to avoid moving where it to go ultimately,more or less with whatever sideways it can make & whatever bad US news may come & go.Good Us tricks having the extreme bad news to null & void any immediate rate changes .They must swallow.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #179,168
  • Jan 8, 2010 11:51pm Jan 8, 2010 11:51pm
Quoting balance
....
i still have the hope ,
i trade for about a mount now ,
in the first night o trading i was down 25% of the acount but i didnt close the order in the morning i was on profit ,
i have to hope for the better at 60-70% loss what do i have left ? 30 % ?
it's very dificult to stop...like my hand freezes on the close button , in this situation i'm in is better dead that cripled
1. One hopes and fears only because of overtrading
2. It sometimes takes more than a month or two just to wait for an entry or exit
3. Good traders plan their entries and exits in ADVANCE a) where to enter or exit, b) at what % of profit or loss and c) in which market conditions
4. Whatever is left becomes 100% for the future trades
5. Hand freezes beause of the 1. above - You may like to re-read all the above and this, one more time

The following charts may help you compare and consider (or reconsider) the game you have so far played
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #179,169
  • Jan 8, 2010 11:56pm Jan 8, 2010 11:56pm
I can find other credible sources to argue my point. Lets just say I do not agree with your selection of many definitions and or applications of hedge. I do not want to invest the time to argue the point. It is covered let the lay person research it on their own to arrive at what works for them.

If it would make it more politically correct, take an opposite position in the spot USDCHF or go trade a futures contract or buy options. In the end, and at this time it is done for the same reason and will have 100% the same effect.

I have worked through many market neutral situation to have both side close out in profit. So you can book 1 looser and 1 winner. I will book 2 winners. It makes me feel good. I have the idle capital and time to work it through.

Think about a market maker broker. He takes trades from you both long and short. What is he? Flat? Closed? Nope... his risk has been hedged by his customers and he will add to one side or another if need be.



BR

Quoting davey88
I'm with Rabax. Holding two exactly opposing positions at the same time is the same as holding neither. This is not hedging - the word is constantly misused here. Hedging is about cancelling out an aspect of risk within a more complex position, not completely neutralising the position (which is the same as closing it). Here's a good example from Wikipedia:

"decides to invest in a company in, for example, Brazil, but does not want to necessarily invest in the Brazilian currency. [...] can separate out the credit risk (i.e. the risk of the company...
  • #179,170
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:30am Jan 9, 2010 12:30am
1.45 I exceeded my expectations. Yesterday, after that move that probably
stronger. Although it seems a good American employment data. next month in
employment and realistic data Waiting for worse. Will not increase the U.S.
interest. with the dollar likely to keep interest rates stable. an action
plan will not be outside but Will not increase the interest. disability
assistance packages in the market interest.

Usdx and e/u Daily Chart
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  • #179,171
  • Jan 9, 2010 1:24am Jan 9, 2010 1:24am
Quoting Big1red9
I have worked through many market neutral situation to have both side close out in profit. So you can book 1 looser and 1 winner. I will book 2 winners. It makes me feel good. I have the idle capital and time to work it through.

Think about a market maker broker. He takes trades from you both long and short. What is he? Flat? Closed? Nope... his risk has been hedged by his customers and he will add to one side or another if need be.



BR
i trade like that too ... but don't speak about this ... without understand how it's work they wil tell you : martingal huh
  • #179,172
  • Jan 9, 2010 2:52am Jan 9, 2010 2:52am
Quoting dfptommyj
May I ask what is this S/R indicator on your chart, looks interesting, many thanks...
Hi theres tommy,

I'm JC, a programmer from yahoo MT_E_and_I group.
I'm new here at FF...
It's my own indicator, i've programed it to respond to any TF i like it to show.
Regards.

JC

Edit: Oh, and it's not a S/R indicator, it's just and OB/OS indicator i've programmed some time ago to show what is going on the TF/pair i want it to.
  • #179,173
  • Jan 9, 2010 3:08am Jan 9, 2010 3:08am
Hi guys,

i would like to ask from your experience what do you think will be the market impulse in the first sessions Monday?
I am specially interested in Tokio and London, how do you think they will react to NFP for EUR/USD?

Andrei
  • #179,174
  • Jan 9, 2010 4:35am Jan 9, 2010 4:35am
Quoting Big1red9
I have worked through many market neutral situation to have both side close out in profit. So you can book 1 looser and 1 winner. I will book 2 winners. It makes me feel good. I have the idle capital and time to work it through.
Yes - I agree with this, but it doesn't matter. As far as I can see, the outcome is exactly the same as if you closed your original position at a loss instead of opening your counter position, and re-entered instead of closing your counter position.

Am I missing something here? My 1 winner, 1 loser will total to the same value as your 2 winners, no? If having a run of "winning" trades makes you happy, fair enough. For me, it's just the bottom line that counts.
Quote
Think about a market maker broker. He takes trades from you both long and short. What is he? Flat? Closed? Nope... his risk has been hedged by his customers and he will add to one side or another if need be.
He IS flat. He already booked a profit when he made those two trades at slightly different prices. He will next have a position in the market when he accepts another trade!
  • #179,175
  • Jan 9, 2010 4:48am Jan 9, 2010 4:48am
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting balance
i am short with 10 lots from 320 , still i hope , maybe obama says something like sell or i dont know , wright now i can hear my heart beats
Wow man, 10 lots... .

I remember, in the first week of June 2006, when the EUR/USD was nearing 1.3000... I bought 4 lots into the rally @ 1.2930... for then the EUR/USD to fall down 300 pips to 1.2630... I closed out the positions with 12.000 USD real money loss...

My motto is simple in this crazy-fx-beast market that is acting like a jojo since the Dec. better-then-expected NFP took a cut of 600 pips on EUR/USD:

| LIFE TO TRADE ANOTHER DAY |

Capital/equity preservation is key in trading fx. No Capital means No trading.

At this moment, I am long since 1.4433 with first target of 1.4540 and a hard stop loss of 1.4380, so risking 53 pips. Yesterday resistance at 1.4400 has turned into support. And the last support at 1.4280 has held over the last 3 days. Like it held it ending August, beginning September 2009.
We might see a rally back into 1.4700 in the coming weeks.

The initial move after NFP is most of the times the right move, EUR/USD went first just above 1.4400 retraced back (most of it due to 'Bloomberg Cheerleading' folks) down the following hour to 'tempt' support and then up again to close above 1.4400.

S&P 500 and DJI stock indices made a late rally to close the day and week higer as well, Tokyo open will take clues from this and likely continue to trade their indices higher, using the 'theme' of the USD as a funding currency. Gold and oil also closed higher, supporting EURO.

My analysis says that there is NOT going to be a rate increase this year, maybe not into mid 2011. It will take very long to recover all the lost jobs, even with this solar and wind energy projects, it will take a few years before these jobs are effective as well.

Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

I have attached my trading chart.

Good luck to all, the above is just my personal perception, trade at own risk by your own decisions.
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Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #179,176
  • Jan 9, 2010 5:30am Jan 9, 2010 5:30am
Quoting Now
We might see a rally back into 1.4700 in the coming weeks.

The initial move after NFP is most of the times the right move, EUR/USD went first just above 1.4400 retraced back (most of it due to 'Bloomberg Cheerleading' folks) down the following hour to 'tempt' support and then up again to close above 1.4400.

S&P 500 and DJI stock indices made a late rally to close the day and week higer as well, Tokyo open will take clues from this and likely continue to trade their indices higher, using the 'theme' of the USD as a funding currency. Gold and...
Hey Now,

I would tend to agree. Neither US or eurozone econ outlook are good, but US will lag, will be late to the interest rate hike, and so we will be back to business as usual with the "business" being selling the USD.

Of course, this might not pan out if we have some continuing sovereign debt issues that affect the european banks or if there are other circumstances that lead back to "Risk Aversion" and the safe haven of the USD. Time will tell.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #179,177
  • Jan 9, 2010 5:54am Jan 9, 2010 5:54am
Quoting davey88
Yes - I agree with this, but it doesn't matter. As far as I can see, the outcome is exactly the same as if you closed your original position at a loss instead of opening your counter position, and re-entered instead of closing your counter position.

Am I missing something here? My 1 winner, 1 loser will total to the same value as your 2 winners, no? If having a run of "winning" trades makes you happy, fair enough. For me, it's just the bottom line that counts.
He IS flat. He already booked a profit when he made those two trades...
YES
you have to think about it with several positions
  • #179,178
  • Jan 9, 2010 7:35am Jan 9, 2010 7:35am
And it.... gets old... going over it and over it. Time and time again.
Thanks for jumping in... I'll hand it off to you

Quoting wood
i trade like that too ... but don't speak about this ... without understand how it's work they wil tell you : martingal huh
  • #179,179
  • Jan 9, 2010 7:39am Jan 9, 2010 7:39am
He is not flat. He carries both trades on the books, knowing the public will loose on each 90% of the time.

Quoting davey88
Yes - I agree with this, but it doesn't matter. As far as I can see, the outcome is exactly the same as if you closed your original position at a loss instead of opening your counter position, and re-entered instead of closing your counter position.

Am I missing something here? My 1 winner, 1 loser will total to the same value as your 2 winners, no? If having a run of "winning" trades makes you happy, fair enough. For me, it's just the bottom line that counts.
He IS flat. He already booked a profit when he made those two trades at slightly different...
  • #179,180
  • Jan 9, 2010 8:30am Jan 9, 2010 8:30am
closed out a long +90 pips. after buying into the dip after the inital spike.


Will see where it goes from here...
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