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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #2,101
  • Jan 8, 2010 9:41am Jan 8, 2010 9:41am
Excellant
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #2,102
  • Jan 8, 2010 9:52am Jan 8, 2010 9:52am
Quoting e061578
I started the new year in positive thatnks to this strategy.. I have 5 winnings 0 losses this week.. AWESOME!
So i got 5 winners 1 looser (06.01.)

The looser went 3 pips in my favor and crushed in almost an hour.
We need to figure out how to avoid these trades.

OCO or half pos. size if the first one was a winner ?

thx to you Scull.
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #2,103
  • Jan 8, 2010 9:55am Jan 8, 2010 9:55am
Quoting Hova
So i got 5 winners 1 looser (06.01.)

The looser went 3 pips in my favor and crushed in almost an hour.
We need to figure out how to avoid these trades.

OCO or half pos. size if the first one was a winner ?

thx to you Scull.
Don't think too much about it, losers happen you will never eliminate them.

5 wins and 1 loser, cracking.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #2,104
  • Jan 8, 2010 10:02am Jan 8, 2010 10:02am
Quoting Scullmeister
Don't think too much about it, losers happen you will never eliminate them.

5 wins and 1 loser, cracking.
yeah you'r right, i think when the first one is a winner, i will set SL to BE for the second one.
So if the first one is +30 pips, i will only risk 30 on the second.
Or something like this, its where MM comes in.
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #2,105
  • Jan 8, 2010 10:18am Jan 8, 2010 10:18am
Why dont you post your trades
Annoying Precision
  • #2,106
  • Jan 8, 2010 10:43am Jan 8, 2010 10:43am
Quoting erikte279
Why dont you post your trades
yeah would be a great idea. ill start next week

just to say, i modified sculls approach a bit, like only close half pos. size @ +30 pips and move SL to BE.
Its just how i play all trades, move SL to BE and you got a free trade.

Doing it this way, with 5% risk i made 10% on a 3k demo acc.
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #2,107
  • Jan 9, 2010 6:23am Jan 9, 2010 6:23am
Quoting flyer415
Yesterday, I got stopped out on my trade as i only had a 30 pip SL. If i had widened it as per Scully then I would have been succesful.

Today, I widened it as per Scully and closed for a 65 pip gain.

EDIT: I used the 4 to 6 box instead of the 5 to 7 box. Yes I do realize that Scully uses 5 to 7. i did have a substantial DD on the 4 to 6 box of about 30 pips. In the 5 to 7 box there did not appear to be any DD. I closed due to the GBP news coming up.

INDYFX: Any chance you have stats on DD on the...
I am not that clear on your question but all my analysis is based upon the 4 to 6 am box
  • #2,108
  • Jan 9, 2010 8:44am Jan 9, 2010 8:44am
Quoting Indyfx
I am not that clear on your question but all my analysis is based upon the 4 to 6 am box

Indy,

I was hoping that you had stats on Drawdown (DD) or Maximum Negative Excursion (MNE) on the 4 to 6 box from your backtesting. As you were able to suggest an optimized SL I had assumed that you kept track of the DD numbers as well. If it is not available then that is fine.

Thanks.
  • #2,109
  • Jan 9, 2010 9:02am Jan 9, 2010 9:02am
Quoting flyer415
Indy,

I was hoping that you had stats on Drawdown (DD) or Maximum Negative Excursion (MNE) on the 4 to 6 box from your backtesting. As you were able to suggest an optimized SL I had assumed that you kept track of the DD numbers as well. If it is not available then that is fine.

Thanks.
Sorry I am still not clear what you want is it the sequence of winners and losers. If so here it is starting from 2nd October:

Oct-----L--L--W--W--W--W--W--L

Nov----W--W--L--W--W--W--W--W

Dec----W--W----(only trading first 3 weeks)

Jan-----L--L

I have not shown the breakeven trades. Jan has been annoying triggered by I / 2 pips both times. I may consider not trading the 1st week of Jan in future using this strategy

I do have the drawdown numbers for each trade but it would be too time consuming to type them all up as I have logged them by hand. Believe me I spent a lot of time looking at the various options and calculating the returns that each offered before coming up with what I considered to be the optimum parameters based upon my analysis of this period
  • #2,110
  • Jan 9, 2010 9:13am Jan 9, 2010 9:13am
Indy,

You have provided tremendous help here and I would not want to put you out more.

Thank you for all the analytical work you put into this strategy.
  • #2,111
  • Jan 9, 2010 1:37pm Jan 9, 2010 1:37pm
I have been using a similar strategy for a while to supplement my main strat. I have a couple of variations which have served me well:

1. I dont filter trades...over time they filter good as well as bad trades...I am comfortable with losses as they are nothing more than a business expense
2. I shoot for 100 pips on every trade and let the trade run to TP, SL or the close of the 23:00 bar
3. I only have one trade per day and only on Cable
5. My Stop loss is the range or 50 pips whichever is lower.
6. I use the 5-7.15 range

My Win ratio has been around 70% but as I have a 1:2 Risk Reward, this has yielded many pips.
  • #2,112
  • Jan 10, 2010 7:05am Jan 10, 2010 7:05am
I have just finished the thread..Looking for profitable breakout strategy and this one seems to be promising. Dont take me bad but we are trying to tweak something which is history in faith it will work in a future. 2009 were profitable for this system and we noticed a forwardtested since June09. Now we tweaked everything and go live. But what if the conditions will change at 2010 especially in FX.. Just my pesonal experinece..

I have a big respect to all of You anyway and definitely will try..

keep on swimming, keep on swimming...
  • #2,113
  • Edited Jan 11, 2010 1:05am Jan 10, 2010 11:09pm | Edited Jan 11, 2010 1:05am
Quoting Zuke
I have been using a similar strategy for a while to supplement my main strat. I have a couple of variations which have served me well:

1. I dont filter trades...over time they filter good as well as bad trades...I am comfortable with losses as they are nothing more than a business expense
2. I shoot for 100 pips on every trade and let the trade run to TP, SL or the close of the 23:00 bar
3. I only have one trade per day and only on Cable
5. My Stop loss is the range or 50 pips whichever is lower.
6. I use the 5-7.15 range

My Win ratio has been...
Great Zuke

How far back did your back testing go on this strat ?

Do you use a buffer ?

Kind regards

  • #2,114
  • Jan 11, 2010 4:17am Jan 11, 2010 4:17am
Quoting matlobien
Great Zuke

How far back did your back testing go on this strat ?

Do you use a buffer ?

Kind regards

Im not a great believer in back testing but did do a back test going back 1 year. I use an 8 point (5 pips and spread..typically 3 pips) buffer.

Todays trade was filled at:

Long: 1.6108
SL: 1.6058
TP: 1.6208

This is currently +48 as I post, however in my start, I do not move my stop to breakeven. I leave my trades to "ride or die" and will close at either 6208, 6058 or the close of 23:00 candle.

Lets see how it pans out! good trading all
  • #2,115
  • Jan 11, 2010 4:25am Jan 11, 2010 4:25am
Unfortunately, today I was stopped out at BE. I went to BE at +25 and the next candle took me out.

The box strategy is definitely working..I just have to figure out if I am a trader who moves to BE at XXX pips (and what XXX should be) or if I look at each trade on an individual basis and move SL depending on price action. I currently use a BE expert advisory to move the SL based on 25 pips only.

Still a work in progress.
  • #2,116
  • Jan 11, 2010 4:39am Jan 11, 2010 4:39am
Flyer why not try 2 positiosn or spliiting your positon in half so take out the first half at +20 or +25 or +30 then at least you have banked some of the trade, u can then move stop to B/e and have a safe half open with zero risk

i do this with the 5-07.15 am box have been doing it or the past 3 months, with pretty good results, yes teh b/e stop does get hiti would say half the time it doesnt and continues on to be agood runner, i am still esperimenting with it to narrow risk as much as possible without cutting out the possibility of the upside.

i currently use 40 pips stop loss or bottom barrier of the box and always check 1 hr and 4 hour chart for trend direction to confirm, the trade
  • #2,117
  • Jan 11, 2010 4:48am Jan 11, 2010 4:48am
Quoting kiwiduvet
Flyer why not try 2 positiosn or spliiting your positon in half so take out the first half at +20 or +25 or +30 then at least you have banked some of the trade, u can then move stop to B/e and have a safe half open with zero risk

i do this with the 5-07.15 am box have been doing it or the past 3 months, with pretty good results, yes teh b/e stop does get hiti would say half the time it doesnt and continues on to be agood runner, i am still esperimenting with it to narrow risk as much as possible without cutting out the possibility of the upside...
Kiwi,

i have been giving that a lot of thought. As you say it comes down to protecting the downside while allowing something to run.

My thought is to take half at 25 and move SL to -25 instead of BE. It is still a BE trade overall if my SL gets hit but I am still giving it room to breathe.

Just a thought at this time.
  • #2,118
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:05am Jan 11, 2010 5:05am
Quoting flyer415
Kiwi,

i have been giving that a lot of thought. As you say it comes down to protecting the downside while allowing something to run.

My thought is to take half at 25 and move SL to -25 instead of BE. It is still a BE trade overall if my SL gets hit but I am still giving it room to breathe.

Just a thought at this time.
Hi Flyer

Can I ask why you are so eager to take something off the table so early? While I appreciate that my "ride or die to 100 pips" isnt for everyone, I do think taking around a fifth of the daily range is probably being too previous.

However, if you are still wishing to do it, why not simply put a trailing stop after 25 pips?

Just my 2 cents!
  • #2,119
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:12am Jan 11, 2010 5:12am
Hi,

Can anyone guide me which breakout box indicator to use? I simply want this indicator draws a box on my chart.

Best,
L
  • #2,120
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:15am Jan 11, 2010 5:15am
A good strategy can be a mix of these two. I take 1/3 when a good level (S/R) is reached and let the 3/3 ride until the next important level.

Quoting Zuke
Hi Flyer

Can I ask why you are so eager to take something off the table so early? While I appreciate that my "ride or die to 100 pips" isnt for everyone, I do think taking around a fifth of the daily range is probably being too previous.

However, if you are still wishing to do it, why not simply put a trailing stop after 25 pips?

Just my 2 cents!
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