6H of consolidation or maybe confused. Directionless.
I think it will be in this range until the NFP.
Not too bullish on USD.
I think it will be in this range until the NFP.
Not too bullish on USD.
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- #178,422
- Jan 7, 2010 2:36pm Jan 7, 2010 2:36pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,616 Posts
Its possible that NFP could be unchanged. This possibly would have continuation effect on USD
- #178,425
- Jan 7, 2010 2:47pm Jan 7, 2010 2:47pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,124 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
- #178,428
- Jan 7, 2010 3:03pm Jan 7, 2010 3:03pm
That bottom line it is the ONE!!! Will it break it?
i hope it does not break cos i dont now how to fix it
. I think .4444 will b important level this week.
- #178,429
- Jan 7, 2010 3:03pm Jan 7, 2010 3:03pm
If i wasn't paying attention to the range-consolidation, and just looked at the monthly chart, i'd say EU has finished it's monthly retrace and now will be headed down, to around 1.35, by end of month.
1.43 seems ready to crack any minute.
- #178,436
- Jan 7, 2010 3:11pm Jan 7, 2010 3:11pm
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
FX Closing Note: Nonfarm payrolls scenarios for tomorrow
Market Action
Few developments in today's NY session worth significant focus after a rather heavy news flow in Asia and Europe. EURUSD has mostly fibrillated within a two-figure range over the last three weeks, which likely sets up a break-out day for the greenback one way or another after tomorrow's US employment report. The noise on the street seems to be leaning towards a positive data point, so a very positive data point may be necessary to move the markets beyond what is already priced in (we offer a few scenarios at the end of this article on the market’s reaction to the employment report). As pointed out in our articles from earlier today, the statistical assumptions and adjustments will give a positive bias to the numbers, and are potentially rather large. The real state of the job market is still worrisome if we consider the ISM non-manufacturing employment sub-index from Wednesday.
Lets see how positive it is 
Looking ahead
US employment report is now in the crosshairs for tomorrow with near unanimous expectations for a positive number, so we may need a barn-burner to move markets beyond their current ranges. A trio of potential scenarios for tomorrow:
One: a massive upside surprise in payrolls triggers a hefty spike higher in interest rates. Could this finally test every-rising asset markets? After all, isn't much of the current rise in asset markets predicated on "low rates forever"? This would seem to offer the most downside for the pro-risk currencies like AUD and NZD and possibly also CAD
Two: The data is inline to slightly positive and bonds rally since an even better reading is already priced into the market. In this scenario, the market is simply discounting seasonal factors in the numbers and we see a more. If asset markets fall as well, the JPY would benefit the most in this scenario and the USD would likely suffer along with commodity currencies.
Three: Strong data, strong risk-positive reaction and bonds fall heavily. This is the strongest scenario for the USD.
- #178,439
- Jan 7, 2010 3:15pm Jan 7, 2010 3:15pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,303 Posts
thanks man nice website.
i hope it does not break cos i dont now how to fix it
Let's see if we will go tomorrow over that level.