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  • #178,001
  • Jan 6, 2010 11:35am Jan 6, 2010 11:35am
Quoting vinesh2
Inability to close below 1.43 tells me we are getting ready for a big bounce possiblty to mid 1.455-1.465 region
True, but what timeframe are you looking at?

I mean its 50/50 to say what way it goes but when it goes is much harder...

Well, it goes sideways as well
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #178,002
  • Jan 6, 2010 11:36am Jan 6, 2010 11:36am
I am looking at Daily. Also its forming a inverted flag so there is also possibitly for a down move to 1.41 region
  • #178,003
  • Jan 6, 2010 11:37am Jan 6, 2010 11:37am
On M30 or H1, doesnt matter,

From the time we hit the 4216 low there has been an A-B-C-D,and a E? (to be completed).

The most important thing to remember is the point of ending of the pattern. The other waves cut through 4424-4430, but the E wave is where we are looking at. if the E wave does not respect the 4424 zone, then its not a E wave and my pattern recognition is wrong. But since its moving in a corrective manner, the only thing I will be watching at the FOMC minutes is whether bounces occur downwards at 4424-4430 zone. If they dont occur, then I would stay out and see how far up it will go

The E? wave which has started from 4280 is not done yet.

If you also look at the time for all the up and downs, you will notice that we still require a bit more time to elpse before some real hard core move starts downwards, thats why I think the FOMC minutes today wont really cause any big moves
  • #178,004
  • Jan 6, 2010 11:42am Jan 6, 2010 11:42am
gator, do you think crude oil is going to break 82 level or it will hold? cause oil has been rising so fast in a few past days
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #178,005
  • Jan 6, 2010 11:44am Jan 6, 2010 11:44am
Oil possibly reaching to 85
  • #178,006
  • Jan 6, 2010 11:45am Jan 6, 2010 11:45am
Quoting redsheriff
Hey - you are the guy with the "Diamond Formation" patterns ...



I remember that you did a few days or few times before ...

Seems you like these pattern ...

Moreover I do agree - I saw / observed that about two hours ago as well and was thinking about ...

"Diamond Formations" in a more days development in hourly charts are very rare ...
Yes ,everything may change in forex too , now this & next that ,actually nobody knows the future .diamond is rare or not or can't form in lower tf or may not in short times rather weeks to develop does not matter to me . I do not follow any books for that.
anyway my thinking still the same as of that in the morning today.just readjustments occurs.This formation started from 24-12 and may end 8-1 , again prediction if so far preserved.
Thanks,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #178,007
  • Jan 6, 2010 11:47am Jan 6, 2010 11:47am
Quoting ratman
Jeez you crazy or what ? It is just my simple love to whales and dolphins. And I dont't understand why people wold eat them.

I have a buy at 300 which I tend to close with SL

You hate me or smtn?
me hates you?- naah, mate.
anyway, its wrong place to discuss about whales and dolphins expecially who are they being eaten by. oi, u sure it's japanese? not korean?
never mind though.
  • #178,008
  • Jan 6, 2010 11:47am Jan 6, 2010 11:47am
Quoting Kambooj
On M30 or H1, doesnt matter,

From the time we hit the 4216 low there has been an A-B-C-D,and a E? (to be completed)....
I will PM you about Elliot waves.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #178,009
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:02pm Jan 6, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting plan-b
1.4380 is a hard nut to crack

If 4380 gives way watch how it behaves at 1.44 to either cash in chips or hold to 1.4480

we are there.

1.4480 anyone?
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #178,010
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:08pm Jan 6, 2010 12:08pm
did some math... i thought above 4440/46 would be a hard top eventually and maybe yesterday would be our last time there for a long time.. for historic reasons... last nights math said 4411 and like always we usaully overshoot to next chart level. on ass chart it was hit... so it think this may be it..this is all valid ... but then IF!!!!! and but... .. i called 4411/12 a soft top last night because nfp can change everything. on normal move i would of given it lots of confidence. as a harder top..

but we never know so to cover my ass i did another measurment... this one said 4466 so closest ass number is 4453 and 50% overshoot is 4472 then 4491...these are tiny charts and s/r easily trump them. so maybe 4440/46 may stop this if its attempted... nfp is a beast ... there may be pumping and hunting.. be prepared for a wild sex ride with lots of napping between..big boys may be free with the viagra.. low volume may be wild..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #178,011
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:09pm Jan 6, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting vinesh2
Oil possibly reaching to 85

tat means bad for usd ritez?
  • #178,012
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:11pm Jan 6, 2010 12:11pm
Happy New year all. I've been watching the forum but this is my first post this year.

I have the picture below and I'd like some feedback. Range market means that bears and bulls are fighting to take control of the trend, right? now, I see this as a mixture of 2 channels, one down and the other up. Bear channel is narrow, while bull channel is wider and slightly steeper, does this mean that bulls are a bit stronger in this fight?

Pls I appreciate your comments, even to say that I got it completely wrong.

Happy trading.
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  • #178,013
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:15pm Jan 6, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting vinesh2
Inability to close below 1.43 tells me we are getting ready for a big bounce possiblty to mid 1.455-1.465 region

Yup.

Earlier guys were shorting 1.4320 , i mentioned that its kind of middle of nowhere.

A firm close below 1.4280 or wait for better entries higher would be a much better entry, and now here we are piercing 1.44 in NY

1.4480 gives way and its hello 1.46
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #178,014
  • Edited 12:33pm Jan 6, 2010 12:21pm | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
did some math... i thought above 4440/46 would be a hard top eventually and maybe yesterday would be our last time there for a long time.. for historic reasons... last nights math said 4411 and like always we usaully overshoot to next chart level. on ass chart it was hit... so it think this may be it..this is all valid ... but then IF!!!!! and but... .. i called 4411/12 a soft top last night because nfp can change everything. on normal move i would of given it lots of confidence. as a harder top..

but we never know so to cover my ass i did another...
I like your analysis as always. during nfp price jump towards to top 1.4482 but may not overshoot from there ( as false spike ) .

will see what happen actually .
now tracking price towards 1.4372 for the next bounce up perhaps and may close some shorts from above.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #178,015
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:25pm Jan 6, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting CzechTrade
gator, do you think crude oil is going to break 82 level or it will hold? cause oil has been rising so fast in a few past days
donno.... something may breakout.. war... bombing ect.... if the crazies want to hurt u.s. when oil is high would be the best time to do it..they do it usaully when oil is dropping..near support.. like russia did a few weeks ago with pipline talk..usauly some crazies attack pipeline/rigs/tanker at those times ect. 82 oil will kill economies and above as well as duration will hurt more. too far too fast... demand atm doesnt support 82 oil.. lots of guys took money from gold profits before last drop and bought oil. because oil was cheap then. so will they buy gold now with oil profits now that gold got cheaper and sell oil? sell high buy low.. every action has a reaction
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #178,016
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:32pm Jan 6, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting Djehuti
Happy New year all. I've been watching the forum but this is my first post this year.

I have the picture below and I'd like some feedback. Range market means that bears and bulls are fighting to take control of the trend, right? now, I see this as a mixture of 2 channels, one down and the other up. Bear channel is narrow, while bull channel is wider and slightly steeper, does this mean that bulls are a bit stronger in this fight?

Pls I appreciate your comments, even to say that I got it completely wrong.

Happy trading.
good start...draw some more trendlines and put some fibs up there, that will help a lot
  • #178,017
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:33pm Jan 6, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
donno.... something may breakout.. war... bombing ect.... if the crazies want to hurt u.s. when oil is high would be the best time to do it..they do it usaully when oil is dropping..near support.. like russia did a few weeks ago with pipline talk..usauly some crazies attack pipeline/rigs/tanker at those times ect. 82 oil will kill economies and above as well as duration will hurt more. too far too fast... demand atm doesnt support 82 oil.. lots of guys took money from gold profits before last drop and bought oil. because oil was cheap then. so will...
man you are smart
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #178,018
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:41pm Jan 6, 2010 12:41pm
i went long early on the morning at 1.4308 and closed it at 1.4338 because of the news today, and i need 400 pips this week. Didnt want to leave it at BE. and now i have another one at 1.4370 with this chart on 1hr, supported by MACD 5,13,1 ON 4hr strategy. If we didnt have the FOMC meeting i would hit at 1.4380 again because of the TREND. We should hit 1.4340 without a problem but who knows. And ultimate profit taking could be 1.4460-1.4475.

Someone has similiar analysis or charts??
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  • #178,019
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:45pm Jan 6, 2010 12:45pm
lots of countries central banks in emerging markets are buying usd.. like s. korea, brazil, tawain, indonesia... there may be more.. it may be a group effort. maybe to help their exports..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #178,020
  • Jan 6, 2010 12:48pm Jan 6, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting CzechTrade
man you are smart
not really.. i see the same as you.. when a dog raises his leg under tree.. another dog will come later and raise his leg in same place after sniffing. odds are pretty good this will happen over and over year after year.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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