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  • #177,901
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:52am Jan 6, 2010 6:52am
hi Kam,

got in short at 1.435 could have got 10 pips there (which would make my daily 20 pips since i got 10 before) but left the pc and when i came back it was going up for a couple of 15m candles. the up volume is low so i think i will hang on a little more. lets see what NY will make of it...

do you trade news? i usually get in right after the numbers get out on FF homepage just for a quick scalp. too risky?

hapipiping
dreams do come true.
  • #177,902
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:56am Jan 6, 2010 6:56am
Hi guys, how well are you prepare for ADP Non-Farm Employment Change NEWS. THANKS
  • #177,903
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:57am Jan 6, 2010 6:57am
  •  jaboo
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Ray Comfort is....the banana man | 236 Posts
i trade the news.

i always wait for a pull back after the news determines direction. i dont wanna get caught up in broker malfunction and have my entry price 20 pips from where i wanted it, so i wait for it to calm down.

definitely wont have a position open before the fomc announcement.
  • #177,904
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:58am Jan 6, 2010 6:58am
Before? do you "guess" what the news will bring?
dreams do come true.
  • #177,905
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:09am Jan 6, 2010 7:09am
  •  jaboo
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Ray Comfort is....the banana man | 236 Posts
nada.

do that and if youre wrong you could be 50 pips down in seconds.

if i held onto my position for days and were 300 pips up i might gamble with it but since im intraday, if its an important announcement, im out.
  • #177,906
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:10am Jan 6, 2010 7:10am
Quoting Blacknightz
wow... ure brave... im juz waiting for it to hit 1.43171 to exit... looking at the florr bollinger band of 30m chart...
lol yeah i'm too greedy i'd say...but we'll see if it can reach this targets with the ADP
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #177,907
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:10am Jan 6, 2010 7:10am
just got up ... good morning

i will be watching this pair along with GU

looks like it is going up towards the upper trend line of a channel. third elliot wave forming. the news should reinforce it.

i will wait for news.
  • #177,908
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:11am Jan 6, 2010 7:11am
Judging by the comments on here, seems like everyone thinks that its gonna be GREEN adp number.. and EU / Gold will tank?
  • #177,909
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:16am Jan 6, 2010 7:16am
Quoting $maker
Judging by the comments on here, seems like everyone thinks that its gonna be GREEN adp number.. and EU / Gold will tank?
woops RED news! ..altho better than previous.... i hate this.. glad im flat!
  • #177,910
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:19am Jan 6, 2010 7:19am
Quoting wannaberich
Before? do you "guess" what the news will bring?
what Jaboo does, I do as well sometimes..depends on the news. It is not guessing anything. It is not even anticipating. It works like this.

News comes out..you are flat. You may have a bias as to which direction the news should push pa but as the data is unknown, only the real numbers will create confirmation as to whether your bias is correct or not. However, on most occasions, right after the news release pa will move slightly against the trend, that is just traders covering their positions if they "guessed" wrong before the news (the big guys). Once that slight move against the trend plays out...usually to a current support or resistance...then you go in long or short (for example if pa moved slightly up after news release to a current resistance, that's where you would go short) and play the real reaction to the news.

Keep this in mind though, this does not always happen. Depending on how big the news is, sometimes pa will move a hundred pips or more in one direction from the start, or not even react to the news at all. In such situations, who wants to be in the market anyways, unless you are a gambler.

Hope this all makes sense...requires a lot of observation and practice to make the distinction between the 3 scenarios and eventually to be able to trade them.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #177,911
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:26am Jan 6, 2010 7:26am
Hello,
I'm in a selling position since 1.4335. Is any one else in this trade? Should I close it with some loss, or should I wait a little more?
TX
  • #177,912
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:30am Jan 6, 2010 7:30am
Seems like market is building base around 1.4350 targeting 1.4420...
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #177,913
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:32am Jan 6, 2010 7:32am
In my insignificant experience if you have a good entry with appropriate stop and target based on your chart and TF , the news will simply help move things along either way. No need trying to figure out which way price will react to the news, just keep an eye on it to book profit or take pain.


Today is a classic example , no one had any idea about the news on Greece but those who had good short entries from yesterdays range highs(1.4450 area) had a nice chance to cash them below 1.43 and even set up long positions at the bottom of the range with minimal risk.


Setting up during the news will only leave you wondering what hit you.


my 2 pips..
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #177,914
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:39am Jan 6, 2010 7:39am
Quoting plan-b
had a nice chance to cash them below 1.43
Or had a nice chance to SL at 1.4450
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #177,915
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:49am Jan 6, 2010 7:49am
Quoting plan-b
In my insignificant experience if you have a good entry with appropriate stop and target based on your chart and TF , the news will simply help move things along either way. No need trying to figure out which way price will react to the news, just keep an eye on it to book profit or take pain.


Today is a classic example , no one had any idea about the news on Greece but those who had good short entries from yesterdays range highs(1.4450 area) had a nice chance to cash them below 1.43 and even set up long positions at the bottom of the range with...
Great points indeed. You sound like you are a swing trader so the temporary volatility that arises during times of news releases are of no concern to you. To intraday traders such as myself and the majority though, that volatility must be paid great attention to as stop losses are never large enough and take profits are always too far...or so it seems haha. Thats why news must be played right, or not at all.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #177,916
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:51am Jan 6, 2010 7:51am
Looking at the 4H chart I see a gigantic bear-flag forming...anyone else see this? Any predictions on where/when it will break downwards? I don't want to miss the next big bearish drop!
  • #177,917
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:54am Jan 6, 2010 7:54am
Are big sharks accumulating shorts (volume higher and no increase in PA) at the expense of us poor people that believe the news were bad for the USD preparing for a bigger short?
dreams do come true.
  • #177,918
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:55am Jan 6, 2010 7:55am
Quoting fxpipper
Looking at the 4H chart I see a gigantic bear-flag forming...anyone else see this? Any predictions on where/when it will break downwards? I don't want to miss the next big bearish drop!

I was going on about this yesterday ...

this week is news heavy all week , ending with NFP.

I do not think that the next big move will come till after nfp but who knows.

real trading volume comes back next week. This week has still been lightish volumes after xmas break.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #177,919
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:56am Jan 6, 2010 7:56am
Quoting wannaberich
Are big sharks accumulating shorts (volume higher and no increase in PA) at the expense of us poor people that believe the news were bad for the USD preparing for a bigger short?
why is news bad for usd ?


yes adp was -84 k , not the -74 k expected BUT still 50 k better than last month



this was taken as +ve news on the futures
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #177,920
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:57am Jan 6, 2010 7:57am
Been reading through the VSA analysis. only a little yet (started yesterday). how do you read the 1.437 higher volumes top?

(seen a thread trashing VSA and it seems quite interesting to me (VSA, not the trashing of course). what moves these people?
dreams do come true.
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