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  • #8,961
  • Jan 5, 2010 5:04am Jan 5, 2010 5:04am
I wish you all good health and a better new year

Strat, responding to your open invitation, I'm pretty satisfied with your thread. I gave up my previous trading methods and habbits and now I'm learning PASR and trading the daily TF. I'm following this thread since October 2009. I'm still at the beginning. I read the thread and I know what LarryK nicely summarized in the post #8771 but to know is one thing and to succesfully apply what you know is another.

Repetitio Est Mater Studiorum
This thread shows us how to fish but its up to us to practice what we learn in order to easily catch the fishes, no? Practice takes time and it's good that the thread has been around for 1 year and hopefully it will be around for more.

Feedback is very important in the learning of new skills (trading PASR goes here), especially for beginners. For beginners, positive feedback is very helpful and encourraging as oposed to negative feedback that could demotivate them. Being sent back to the beginning of The Path is positive feedback because it helps you not to loose your money
One of the things I like at this thread is that you can get alot of positive feedback.

Ok, nuff said.


P.S. speaking of the 1st year anniversary... will there be cake?
  • #8,962
  • Jan 5, 2010 5:10am Jan 5, 2010 5:10am
Quoting Grimweasel
Did some end of year analysis last night of my Demo MT4 account that I've been using since adopting this PASR method back in Feb/March last year and found some surprising results. Bear in mind I was/am still learning this method but I tried to apply all the rules as if I was live trading.
....
[/font]
Hey Grim, what tool did you use for backtesting?

Great stuff, small win/loss ratio is very real for me too.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,963
  • Edited 7:34am Jan 5, 2010 5:12am | Edited 7:34am
Quoting Lionstrike
Excuse my ignorance, but how is it that you have EUR/USD data seemingly going back to 1980 when the European union was formed in 1993 and the currency wasn't officially adopted until 1999? What am I missing here? Is that the dollar vs a composite of other European countries or is there something more to this?

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1262660773
I think the historical data of EURUSD before 1999 is taken from the USD/DEM. DEM being the Deutsche Mark. DEM was considered one of the most stable currencies.
  • #8,964
  • Jan 5, 2010 5:38am Jan 5, 2010 5:38am
Quoting Grimweasel
Did some end of year analysis last night of my Demo MT4 account that I've been using since adopting this PASR method back in Feb/March last year and found some surprising results. Bear in mind I was/am still learning this method but I tried to apply all the rules as if I was live trading.

The win/loss ratio was 30/70 but by cutting the losers and letting the winners run the balanceincreased by 102% from Jun - Dec 09.

[font=Arial]Interestingly though, I had a 41% success rate on short trades and only 26%...
Congratulations!! incredible results, well done indeed. I wish I could match those.

As I am sure you know, the Win/Loss ratio you can handle is related to the R:R you decide to accept and the %age risk to your account of each trade. Apparently you can make a profit with 3 winning trades to 7 losing ones if you don't accept anything less than a 3:1 Reward:Risk trade and only risk 1% of your account size. But the 3:1 'rule' is very restricting in Forex of course.

But with over 100% gain in 6 months why be concerned? No hurry really is there, just whittle away at the losing trades to increase that %age even more and you will be quids in.

What %age of risk to your account are you trading on? and at what point do you decide that a Reward:Risk ratio is too small to be worth trading?


Great stuff!!
  • #8,965
  • Jan 5, 2010 6:26am Jan 5, 2010 6:26am
Quoting soso
Hello Larry,


I had this exact problem, I am GMT+2/3 depending on daylight saving. First thing I did was to look for a charting broker that had daily candles close as early as possible. I finally decided on FXPro which closes at 00:00 my time, still a bit later than I'd like. Now I enter the market using one of the following ways:[list=1][*]If I am awake after 23:00, and not very tired, I will not wait until 00:00 if a PA bar looks good, I put my stop order and go to sleep.[*]If not, next morning I will put a stop order if the PA bar didnt reach...
thanks SOSO

I will see how the morning thing works because I certainly wont trade a candle that isn't closed, lost plenty doing that in the bad old lower TF days.

Larry
  • #8,966
  • Jan 5, 2010 6:42am Jan 5, 2010 6:42am
Quoting strat
GBPJPY Worker

I wonder what our friends who insist on perfect, classic candle proportions at perfect positions make of this.
My chart shows just one candle for those two, and it is a nice BEEB taking the price back in that range between 150 and 141 again.

Worth trading if it weren't for the volume?

Larry
  • #8,967
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:35am Jan 5, 2010 8:35am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Congratulations!! incredible results, well done indeed. I wish I could match those.

As I am sure you know, the Win/Loss ratio you can handle is related to the R:R you decide to accept and the %age risk to your account of each trade. Apparently you can make a profit with 3 winning trades to 7 losing ones if you don't accept anything less than a 3:1 Reward:Risk trade and only risk 1% of your account size. But the 3:1 'rule' is very restricting in Forex of course.

But with over 100% gain in 6 months why be concerned? No hurry really is there,...
Thanks Lotus- I started with a demo 100K and stuck to 2% per trade. As it was more a vehicle for learning price action I stuck with 2K limit per trade and didn't readjust the 2% for any gains or losses just to keep things simple.

Oddly, I found that I was more selective on demo than when I traded live. I would never just 'chuck a trade on' as I didn't want to spoil the test results.

I must say that I didn't rigidly stick to RR ratios either as they can be subjective. I just stuck to 2K per trade but often less if I was not too sure of the set-up.

It goes to show the worth of doing such an exercise as you often surprise yourself with the results. It also shows you what you need to work on to improve without risking the roof over your head!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,968
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:19am Jan 5, 2010 9:19am
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Good to know that you have a heart and foresight to evolve this thread. I do fear for the moment you decide to move beacause you find that there is not enough "inspiration" here or you.

I have to admit that I miss the opportunity to be tested in what I know and whether this knowledge is rightly applied.

During this holiday time I have reread the thread again to make sure that I know and understand the principles however with all this knowledge I am missing the opportunity...
Good to know that you have a heart and foresight to evolve this thread. I do fear for the moment you decide to move because you find that there is not enough "inspiration" here or you.

I will be here as long as there are traders needing help.

I have to admit that I miss the opportunity to be tested in what I know and whether this knowledge is rightly applied.

Use demo to make sure you understand the method and PASR and a live account with real money (smallest $/pip) to engage your emotions.

During this holiday time I have reread the thread again to make sure that I know and understand the principles however with all this knowledge I am missing the opportunity to prove that what I know and understand is correct. So from my side, a exercises or tests will do me good above what I am doing now.

OK. Will try to do more

Earlier in the thread, when Baba G was still here you mentioned that there was plans for groups to be mentored by you and others, is this still a plan for you to do?

Very much so.

I gather that everyone will do different things with the information that we are getting here, but my personal goal is to master this and do it right.

This should be the goal of each and every student.

My wife is trading with me and learning from me so it is a double edged sword.

Good for you – a REAL family BUSINESS.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,969
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:27am Jan 5, 2010 9:27am
Quoting pipmyride
Hi all,

I'm more a "learner" (no not a lurker ) of this thread - i've always been a student of price action and this is a superb learning tool for the world !

I am posting because it never occurred to me to look at the quarterly but your recent posts got me opening my quarterlys and what a story they tell - i have attached some as per your requests, and they are really giving me an interesting picture on the USD prospects going forward.

Cheers
Mark
Glad you're still around Mark.

There is more value in the charts the higher the time frame you go which is why I am always pushing the HIGHER TIME FRAMES.

For the life of me, I don't understand why people don't see this. They reveal more and the technicals are far more powrful.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,970
  • Edited 11:40am Jan 5, 2010 9:34am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting albertsy2
Hi Strat. Question on your method. Let's say the bar you mentioned has already completed. (Bar A.) It's saying that the buy orders above it (in the shadow) have been taken out, paving the way for sellers to rally. OK. At this point let's say we are on the day of Bar B. Normally you would set a sell stop at the close/low of Bar A, according to J16. Would you normally do this, OR would you wait for Bar B to complete, and set a sell stop at the low of Bar B, on the day of Bar C (if you did this then the order would never have been filled, saving you...
Hi Strat. Question on your method. Let's say the bar you mentioned has already completed. (Bar A.) It's saying that the buy orders above it (in the shadow) have been taken out, paving the way for sellers to rally. OK. At this point let's say we are on the day of Bar B. Normally you would set a sell stop at the close/low of Bar A, according to J16. Would you normally do this, OR would you wait for Bar B to complete, and set a sell stop at the low of Bar B, on the day of Bar C (if you did this then the order would never have been filled, saving you from a loss)?

The reason I ask is because a shooting star by definition contains 3 bars -- the bar before Bar A, Bar A, and Bar B, and I would just like to clarify where to enter the trade if using this shooting star pattern. Thanks!

I must be going soft in 2010!

I had already written the answers to this when I realized they are all in the thread anyway.

So, you must not have read the thread otherwise you would know the answers for yourself.

Since profitable and successful trading cannot be done with short cuts to bypass the necessary tedious learning and practicing, you must go to the beginning of The Path of Learning and read and UNDERSTAND.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,971
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:38am Jan 5, 2010 9:38am
Quoting forexample
Happy New Year to all from snowy Nagano, Japan. We have had 4 metres since Christmas but things keep on moving. I wish we would get snowed in so I could send a little more time studying!
Jade
Hi there. I was there for a few months many many years ago. It is a beautiful place, steeped in great tradition. (My only complaint is that it's not as exciting as Tokyo, but you can't have everything. At least there's a Toys R Us there.)
  • #8,972
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:43am Jan 5, 2010 9:43am
Quoting pipfx
I was looking at some charts today and noticed this.

Big boss: Showing a nice IB

Boss: Two bullish bars, after a hammer on Dec 20

Worker: BUEB on Jan 4 above the 50.

It is starting to look like to me the pull back in the major UPWARD trend is over, and this one wants to continue going up. The bars are somewhat unreliable due to the low volume over the past few weeks so ideally I would want to see a break in the minor R @.9222 with good PASR.

And add to a position if it breaks Pscho .94

Comments on my analysis is much appreciated.
The first Worker test is at the Root down TL which PRICE is currently testing now. How PRICE reacts to this will show us the way forward.

The REAL BIG test is the strong 93/94R which is a 26 year high! How PRICE reacts to this is key to the next move.

This is the only analysis you need on AUDUSD right now
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,973
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:45am Jan 5, 2010 9:45am
Quoting CrudeCraig
First order of the new year is in.
Disappointing Sparky.

Are you really that desperate and impatient to trade?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,974
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:57am Jan 5, 2010 9:57am
Quoting Alexandra
Since there seems to be a prediliction with prediction on the thread all of a sudden, let's play the trendline game. Seatbelt comes off at 91.50......... How's that in a thin market?

Fortuitously, EURUSD is protecting our equity, playing with a double bottom. Of note, there was a double top in USDCHF prior to the new year - shock!!

Yes, Strat, I see the EURUSD 20! ..... That word again - confluence. So.......who is correct, the watchmakers or the carmakers?
Since there seems to be a prediliction with prediction on the thread all of a sudden, let's play the trendline game.

pre⋅di⋅lec⋅tion

–noun
a tendency to think favorably of something in particular; partiality; preference: a predilection for Bach.

Origin:
1735–45; < ML praedīlect(us) beloved, ptp. of praedīligere to prefer (see pre-, diligent ) + -ion [IMG]file:///C:/Users/Robert/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image002.gif[/IMG]

Synonyms:
bias, inclination, leaning, liking, weakness, predisposition, prepossession.

Bloody hell Alexandra! Were you playing scrabble over Christmas or just get a new dictionary?

90.50/90 for me but PASR is the REAL answer.

who is correct, the watchmakers or the carmakers?

The playmakers, always the playmakers.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,975
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:59am Jan 5, 2010 9:59am
Quoting LarryK
I know that there are a whole lot of reasons not to trade this and I am not yet trading anything until Strat says the volume is back.

But that is a very nice BUOB on my chart at SR, unfortunately it needs over 200 pip SL to be safe or else take a chance on SL just below the SR.

It may be against a new trend and the 20 is in the way on the weekly chart as well, so I will watch this just as I am watching the AUDUSD that I liked yesterday.

Larry
Watching and waiting is better than trading and losing
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,976
  • Jan 5, 2010 10:26am Jan 5, 2010 10:26am
Quoting forexample
Happy New Year to all from snowy Nagano, Japan. We have had 4 metres since Christmas but things keep on moving. I wish we would get snowed in so I could send a little more time studying!

Just checking in to say I am still here, still working through the thread and analysing charts to help clarify points made. Also studing thousands of charts for PASR, and when I finish those I will move on to studying thousands of charts.

This is the only place of learning for me and the changes are exciting. I do hope the workload doesn't become too much to be...
Ohio gazaimus, Konichiwa ,Jade!

Just checking in to say I am still here, still working through the thread and analysing charts to help clarify points made. Also studying thousands of charts for PASR, and when I finish those I will move on to studying thousands of charts.

Good lad! And when you have done that, practice on more charts.

One thing I am not sure of...posted charts by the teachers on this thread are usually stripped down to only the things you want us to (be able to) see...I would like to see what it is you are actually looking at...SR lines, dirty old TLs, lonely disregarded DSRIs etc. Or are the charts you use for trading as clean as what are posted here?

Good question, Jade

Those on The Path should only have the four MAs on their charts nothing else.

As you progress along The Path you should get to the point where you can “SEE” where the MAs would be without them being there.

The same with TLs and DSRIs although you will have to add them until you “SEE” them but don’t have so many that you can’t “SEE” PRICE.

Always delete “old” TLs and DSRIs which are not being respected by PRICE but be aware where they are because they can come “into play” again at any time.

The less clutter you have on your charts, the less distractions you will have.

The more information (junk) you put on your PRICE charts, the more your sub conscious is confused causing incorrect decision making.

Keeping your charts CLEAN and CLEAR allows you to THINK and SEE clean and clearly.

I use 3 sets of charts with different information on but those are for later.

Anyway, I look forward to making real developments to my trading this year and I am committed to building my home business and making it a success over the time it takes.

Great attitude!

Sayanara
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,977
  • Jan 5, 2010 10:30am Jan 5, 2010 10:30am
Quoting Spinner
Straight into support and a bit overextended for my taste, rubber band effect. Possible tweezer bottom?

Spinner
Exactly plus no rally to sell and liquidity too low.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,978
  • Jan 5, 2010 10:40am Jan 5, 2010 10:40am
Quoting strat
For those of you trading during December, how many of you were caught out with this Shooting Star?

Had it been any other time than a holiday, I would have traded this.

Looks to me like the 3 bars after it are indicative of low liquidity.
Hello Strat,

What is it that makes you conclude the "3 bars after it are indicative of low liquidity"? What if these bars were placed in lets say the end of october?

Thanks,

FP
Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
  • #8,979
  • Jan 5, 2010 10:48am Jan 5, 2010 10:48am
Quoting strat
Disappointing Sparky.

Are you really that desperate and impatient to trade?
Not at all actually!

I took the whole month of December off.
  • #8,980
  • Jan 5, 2010 10:50am Jan 5, 2010 10:50am
Quoting Grimweasel
Did some end of year analysis last night of my Demo MT4 account that I've been using since adopting this PASR method back in Feb/March last year and found some surprising results. Bear in mind I was/am still learning this method but I tried to apply all the rules as if I was live trading.

The win/loss ratio was 30/70 but by cutting the losers and letting the winners run the balanceincreased by 102% from Jun - Dec 09.

[font=Arial]Interestingly though, I had a 41% success rate on short trades and only 26%...
Thanks to Strat, Blackie, Alexandra, Nic and many others for shining the torch and showing the way. There were times last year when I became so despondent that I nearly gave up as nothing was working - but you have to overcome each obstacle and put any losses you incur down to your investment in yourself and your continued education in the ways of the market. All businesses start off with expenses and I view last year's losses on an early live account as such losses - profitability will come with time, patience and perseverance. Good trading to all.....

Danny boy you are the example for all to follow.

You stuck in there when the going was tough and while others took the easy way out and fell by the wayside, you PERSEVERED with great DETERMINATION.

Keep on doing what you’re doing and you will get there.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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