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  • #8,941
  • Jan 4, 2010 10:54pm Jan 4, 2010 10:54pm
First order of the new year is in.
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  • #8,942
  • Jan 4, 2010 11:06pm Jan 4, 2010 11:06pm
Quoting pipmyride
Hi all,

I'm more a "learner" (no not a lurker ) of this thread - i've always been a student of price action and this is a superb learning tool for the world !

I am posting because it never occurred to me to look at the quarterly but your recent posts got me opening my quarterlys and what a story they tell - i have attached some as per your requests, and they are really giving me an interesting picture on the USD prospects going forward.

Cheers
Mark
Excuse my ignorance, but how is it that you have EUR/USD data seemingly going back to 1980 when the European union was formed in 1993 and the currency wasn't officially adopted until 1999? What am I missing here? Is that the dollar vs a composite of other European countries or is there something more to this?

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1262660773
  • #8,943
  • Jan 4, 2010 11:47pm Jan 4, 2010 11:47pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
First order of the new year is in.
I have a quick question. It seems like your first target is pyscho 1.60, it seems your risk reward is not very good?
  • #8,944
  • Edited 12:31am Jan 5, 2010 12:00am | Edited 12:31am
Quoting Alexandra
Speaking of confluence, that beautiful-looking USDJPY monthly chart gets a nice test next week against the sharp monthly TL and the corresponding static level. Passengers should buckle their seat belts next week.
Since there seems to be a prediliction with prediction on the thread all of a sudden, let's play the trendline game. Seatbelt comes off at 91.50......... How's that in a thin market?

Fortuitously, EURUSD is protecting our equity, playing with a double bottom. Of note, there was a double top in USDCHF prior to the new year - shock!!

Yes, Strat, I see the EURUSD 20! ..... That word again - confluence. So.......who is correct, the watchmakers or the carmakers?
  • #8,945
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:31am Jan 5, 2010 12:31am
Quoting pipfx
I have a quick question. It seems like your first target is pyscho 1.60, it seems your risk reward is not very good?

I don't really use targets but i am looking to see 1.5750 as the first trouble area(Bottom of the range) if it breaks. If that is reached it would be a 1.5R trade with the possibility to break out of the range depending on how price acts if it gets there. You are right though, the RR is not the best but i can be sure that if it breaks my way i will not lose on this one.
  • #8,946
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:59am Jan 5, 2010 12:59am
I know that there are a whole lot of reasons not to trade this and I am not yet trading anything until Strat says the volume is back.

But that is a very nice BUOB on my chart at SR, unfortunately it needs over 200 pip SL to be safe or else take a chance on SL just below the SR.

It may be against a new trend and the 20 is in the way on the weekly chart as well, so I will watch this just as I am watching the AUDUSD that I liked yesterday.

Larry
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  • #8,947
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:39am Jan 5, 2010 1:39am
I have an interesting trading problem.

I am sound asleep when the NY closes at 1am my time, so do I become a nightbird when a trade is on the horizon, or do I forego what happens during the asian session and trade whatever is on offer when I am back at my screen at 6am my time?

The asian session is relatively quiet and so often offers the same opportunity to enter at the planned level.

As I am always awake quite early I am at the moment going to favour placing the trade/order after the asian session and before the much busier european session and see if I lose out too much by so doing.

A further irritation is that my daily candle always prints at midnight my time which is fine when NY is not on daylight saving, but is an hour out of sync during NY daylight saving as now. Still I will always trade what I see on my chart.

Larry
  • #8,948
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:39am Jan 5, 2010 2:39am
GBP_JPY Spot.png

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  • #8,949
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:51am Jan 5, 2010 2:51am
CAD_JPY Spot.png

CAD_JPY Spot.png

CAD_JPY Spot.png
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  • #8,950
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:00am Jan 5, 2010 3:00am
NZD_USD Spot.png


NZD_USD Spot.png


NZD_USD Spot.png
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  • #8,951
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:06am Jan 5, 2010 3:06am
EUR_JPY Spot.png

EUR_JPY Spot.png
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  • #8,952
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:09am Jan 5, 2010 3:09am
EUR_JPY Spot.png
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  • #8,953
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:16am Jan 5, 2010 3:16am
NZD_USD Spot.png

NZD_USD Spot.png
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  • #8,954
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:19am Jan 5, 2010 3:19am
NZD_USD Spot.png
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  • #8,955
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:22am Jan 5, 2010 3:22am
Quoting LarryK
I have an interesting trading problem.

.....

Larry
Hello Larry,

I had this exact problem, I am GMT+2/3 depending on daylight saving. First thing I did was to look for a charting broker that had daily candles close as early as possible. I finally decided on FXPro which closes at 00:00 my time, still a bit later than I'd like. Now I enter the market using one of the following ways:

  1. If I am awake after 23:00, and not very tired, I will not wait until 00:00 if a PA bar looks good, I put my stop order and go to sleep.
  2. If not, next morning I will put a stop order if the PA bar didnt reach its entry level.
  3. If it did reach the entry level I am putting a limit order and hoping for a retrace near the entry level.


This is what works for me, and it can be tweaked I'm sure. The worst thing you can do is to force yourself in staying awake until market closes, it's very tiring and you can make bad decisions.

Hope it helps, cheers.

Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,956
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:34am Jan 5, 2010 3:34am
Happy New Year to all from snowy Nagano, Japan. We have had 4 metres since Christmas but things keep on moving. I wish we would get snowed in so I could send a little more time studying!

Just checking in to say I am still here, still working through the thread and analysing charts to help clarify points made. Also studing thousands of charts for PASR, and when I finish those I will move on to studying thousands of charts.

This is the only place of learning for me and the changes are exciting. I do hope the workload doesn't become too much to be considered "worth it" by Strat but I have a feeling he is here for us.

A few questions surfaced when reading the thread but a lot of these got answered further on so I am keeping a list of questions and will raise anything remaining when I catch up.

I like the idea of the threads being split as at the moment trying to reach the end of this thread so I can participate more but at a pace I can learn at; and sometimes it feels I'll never get there.

I also like the idea of charts being posted after the fact and/or potential setups posted for comment - with relative charts of course.

One thing I am not sure of...posted charts by the teachers on this thread are usually stripped down to only the things you want us to (be able to) see...I would like to see what it is you are actually looking at...SR lines, dirty old TLs, lonely disregarded DSRIs etc. Or are the charts you use for trading as clean as what are posted here?

Anyway, I look forward to making real developments to my trading this year and I am committed to building my home business and making it a success over the time it takes.

Still unable to edit posts or post graphs but working with FF support on this (it seems I am the only one with this problem but it is true for every single PC/Mac I use at home, work, friends, strangers) and hope to be able to do this by the time I catch up.

Best Regards and thank you for your generosity,

Jade
  • #8,957
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:51am Jan 5, 2010 3:51am
Quoting strat
Nice BEOB but there are a few problems..................................
Straight into support and a bit overextended for my taste, rubber band effect. Possible tweezer bottom?

Spinner
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,958
  • Edited 5:08am Jan 5, 2010 4:15am | Edited 5:08am
Did some end of year analysis last night of my Demo MT4 account that I've been using since adopting this PASR method back in Feb/March last year and found some surprising results. Bear in mind I was/am still learning this method but I tried to apply all the rules as if I was live trading.

The win/loss ratio was 30/70 but by cutting the losers and letting the winners run the balanceincreased by 102% from Jun - Dec 09.

Interestingly though, I had a 41% success rate on short trades and only 26% on long trades?!

The average winning trade was twice that of the average losing trade. I also noted a rising equity curve but it was odd that it had a trendline with peaks but periods of long drawdown back to the rising TL? Maybe I should start trading my own equity curve LOL!

So, what do these results show? Well, for one it shows I still have more work to do on only taking the very best set-ups. Secondly, it shows that despite what I may have thought before, you can be profitable with a low win/loss ratio - it all comes down to in-trade management. Thirdly, I guess I have a propensity to favour shorting over going long - I have read before that some traders are better with a directional bias but I would have never thought I was a perma-bear!!

So, still very much a work in progress and I would say the past few months I have learnt more about the power of the higher TFs and seeing beyond the candles! The aim this year is to become consistently profitable whilst only taking the very best set-ups and working on patience. I may set up a short-only demo account and see how that fares against a long only.

Thanks to Strat, Blackie, Alexandra, Nic and many others for shining the torch and showing the way. There were times last year when I became so despondent that I nearly gave up as nothing was working - but you have to overcome each obstacle and put any losses you incur down to your investment in yourself and your continued education in the ways of the market. All businesses start off with expenses and I view last year's losses on an early live account as such losses - profitability will come with time, patience and perseverance. Good trading to all.....
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,959
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:24am Jan 5, 2010 4:24am
Quoting soso
Hello Larry,

I had this exact problem, I am GMT+2/3 depending on daylight saving. First thing I did was to look for a charting broker that had daily candles close as early as possible. I finally decided on FXPro which closes at 00:00 my time, still a bit later than I'd like. Now I enter the market using one of the following ways:[list=1][*]If I am awake after 23:00, and not very tired, I will not wait until 00:00 if a PA bar looks good, I put my stop order and go to sleep.[*]If not, next morning I will put a stop order if the PA bar didnt...
Cool ideas

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,960
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:40am Jan 5, 2010 4:40am
Quoting Jideck
Hi Danny
Quoting Jideck

This barbwire is very interesting, I hope for downward move to test the DSRI. I do not know whether this would be a good place to enter a sell, going into 20/50 trap but I gather that one will have momentum and PA behind (Strat mentioned some time ago that it is OK to do so) - I hope this is correct as applied here. 20 is quite flat at this time though, closest major S/R that I have is at 0.9921 so there is space to move.

Any comments?
...


Hi Jideck - I did read a passage that said the trade back into the trend after a strong TL break was one of the surest trades one could hope for as traders try to re-establish the trend again. This is often why we see topping formations as bears drive price down to test the bulls’ strength. The bulls then take charge again and try to reassert their authority with a test of the trend's extreme with either a HH or LH. This is why you often get double tops and bottoms!

I think (based on price action and looking at loads of charts) that we could, could see a move back down for the USD to test the broken down TLs on USDCHF, USDCAD, and USDYEN. Similarly for audusd and nzdusd I think we will revisit the highs and even carry on up? Who knows but price action and Mr Market.

Incidentally, the fireworks on the World's tallest building yesterday in Dubai could be a huge contrarian sell signal!! Even John Lewis (big department store) CEO said on the radio this morning that last years excellent results would not be repeated this year as he predicts a slow down due to higher taxes and clampdowns on personal debt and lack of liquidity!

Trade less and become more profitable!
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