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  • #176,981
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:37pm Jan 3, 2010 10:37pm
Shorted at 1.429 - 1.43 is the major barrier to the upside and I dont think it will be broken, people with longs are bailing out and pushing it to a bearish stance. We will have to see what happens I guess!
  • #176,982
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:37pm Jan 3, 2010 10:37pm
Quoting Chicky
Without prejudice, this is what I hear but experience tells a different story. I am not convinced USD will get that strong even with mopping up of Fed funds to banks by increasing interest rates. Unemployment figures can be debated. It is faith in a currency that keeps it afloat in longer term. I see no faith.
hmmm maybe. you have the answer as well as many others. look a little deeper. if all everyone says about usd is true and it is crap. where does that leave the ones it supports? gold kinda answered this riddle. as time has gone on others have seen the big picture. think about it. who is the real consumer? were joined at the ankles. without u.s. getting better first.. those exporters with an aging population are in trouble.. its a scale eu is on... all the other crap dont matter. they are exporters....without exports its a third world currency. they just dont know it yet..its the same in any business.. you have to sell something others can afford. if not you lower the price or close the doors..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #176,983
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:38pm Jan 3, 2010 10:38pm
On my 4H this week- I'm a bear & I have a TPP @ 1.4100.

It will be interesting to see what transpires on this pair.
  • #176,984
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:40pm Jan 3, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
hmmm maybe. you have the answer as well as many others. look a little deeper. if all everyone says about usd is true and it is crap. where does that leave the ones it supports? gold kinda answered this riddle. as time has gone on others have seen the big picture. think about it. who is the real consumer? were joined at the ankles. without u.s. getting better first.. those exporters with an aging population are in trouble.. its a scale eu is on... all the other crap dont matter. they are exporters....without exports its a third world currency. they...
Gator - you just hit it directly on the nose, well said. Isnt europe moving further towards a service based economy atm though? Just wondering.

Anyway like I said in the last post I really think any higher posistion for Euro/USD will make a good posistion for bulls to bail and or bears to enter, it wont have the momentum to last.
  • #176,985
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:55pm Jan 3, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
hmmm maybe. you have the answer as well as many others. look a little deeper. if all everyone says about usd is true and it is crap. where does that leave the ones it supports? gold kinda answered this riddle. as time has gone on others have seen the big picture. think about it. who is the real consumer? were joined at the ankles. without u.s. getting better first.. those exporters with an aging population are in trouble.. its a scale eu is on... all the other crap dont matter. they are exporters....without exports its a third world currency. they...
Gator, I focus on two things 1) USD has become a very very volatile currency (for whatever reasons) which is not good for it to be a medium of international trade settlements- either it appreciates or depreciates 2) China is focusing on emerging markets for both Human Resources and Consumers. Five billion people can compensate for 300 million especially when Chinese can keep the cost (and indeed the quality) according to what they can afford. Western countries last year waved off $80 billion loan of African countries, but Chinese took the advantage and called a summit of scores of these countries to offer more investment and joint ventures. They have commodities to offer in return if not USD.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #176,986
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:04pm Jan 3, 2010 11:04pm
Quoting tingwei_98
taking some long from here TP @ 1108 SL just below MA20 1097

make sure stop is there

4 hour has lower highs from dec 27th

you may have just bought channel top on gold , channel bottom is 1080 , not something you want to let hang out there in the wind with no stop

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  • #176,987
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:10pm Jan 3, 2010 11:10pm
Quoting malcolmb14
make sure stop is there

4 hour has lower highs from dec 27th

you may have just bought channel top on gold , channel bottom is 1080 , not something you want to let hang out there in the wind with no stop

Attachment
Agreed, of all the market instruments I would be willing to long today E/U was the only one and I wussed out over Fridays pin on the futs.
  • #176,988
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:11pm Jan 3, 2010 11:11pm
Quoting Chicky
Gator, I focus on two things 1) USD has become a very very volatile currency (for whatever reasons) which is not good for it to be a medium of international trade settlements- either it appreciates or depreciates 2) China is focusing on emerging markets for both Human Resources and Consumers. Five billion people can compensate for 300 million especially when Chinese can keep the cost (and indeed the quality) according to what they can afford. Western countries last year waved off $80 billion loan of African countries, but Chinese took the advantage...
ok but china is one of those exporters joined at the ankles too.. these things take time.. but chinindia and s. korea are willing to pick up europes/japen slack at a cheaper price..even cheaper now as your point shows china getting commodities even cheaper now.. plus the stockpile they already have.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #176,989
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:13pm Jan 3, 2010 11:13pm
Quoting fontu
Discard it as a colorfull picture get it while seeing the relative movements of different pairs last year , all the same cup & handle & almost ready all to up together!!
fontu
Thanks jkrick for the enquiry , I used currencychart indication for each pair all in one window.
fontu
Attached File(s)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #176,990
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:16pm Jan 3, 2010 11:16pm
EU Mid Term
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Fools Rushing
  • #176,991
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:20pm Jan 3, 2010 11:20pm
And i am trying to get something from pound..........
............................................................Game of probability
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  • #176,992
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:22pm Jan 3, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
ok but china is one of those exporters joined at the ankles too.. these things take time.. but chinindia and s. korea are willing to pick up europes/japen slack at a cheaper price..even cheaper now as you point shows china getting commodities even cheaper now.. plus the stockpile they already have.
I agree.

There needs to be a balance and it will eventually come. Asian Tigers often become Cats and then again Tigers because of their limited capacity to cater the demand. From time to time they have to invest in capital goods (production capacity) which disturbs their balance of payment. But we will ultimately move towards a balance and that is why I don't expect a free fall or unleashed rise of any currency in longer term.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #176,993
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:39pm Jan 3, 2010 11:39pm
As Morgan Stanley's chief fixed income strategist David Greenlaw sees US 10-year [YIELD] will climb about 40% to 5.5% in 2010, the biggest annual increase since 1999, and the surge will push interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to 7.5-8.0%. This is another forecast of Treasury bubble, and as the Fed is seen actually has been buying upwards of 50% of Treasuries offered at recent auctions via primary dealers and POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation), actual demand for bonds could be much weaker than as it is. Also implication over the housing market would be like mortgages soar on end of Fed's MBS purchase program and end of tax incentives as well as FHA's new tighter standard under recent decline in house prices (Case Shiller index).

[GBP/USD] slipped from an earlier session high around 1.6150 to a low around 1.6075 on the back of a firmer Greenback with an Asian name and a French name the notable sellers. The pair was also dragged lower on a weaker Eur/Usd pressured on comments from ex-BOE MPC member Willem Buiter now a professor with the LSE, that European banks faced further writedowns to the tune of $700 bln. With the UK also having problems of its own in the form of blown out budget deficits as well as ballooning government debt and the prospect of a general in coming months, market players are still taking opportunities to sell the pair on rallies.


hmmmm wish i had thunk this....
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #176,994
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:42pm Jan 3, 2010 11:42pm
eyes on USDCHF 1,0356.... consequently eyes on EURUSD
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #176,995
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:42pm Jan 3, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting tingwei_98
taking some long from here TP @ 1108 SL just below MA20 1097
Quoting Optimum
This choice was good. I give my vote for you.
trade what u see from your chart and not what people say ...

Good luck guys...
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  • #176,996
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:47pm Jan 3, 2010 11:47pm
Quoting Chicky
I agree.

There needs to be a balance and it will eventually come. Asian Tigers often become Cats and then again Tigers because of their limited capacity to cater the demand. From time to time they have to invest in capital goods (production capacity) which disturbs their balance of payment. But we will ultimately move towards a balance and that is why I don't expect a free fall or unleashed rise of any currency in longer term.
china will unpeg as usd goes up. like they have done... making crap even cheaper. china dont care. they want to eliminate competition.. europe/japan is competition.. china wants to dominate the world..now sit down and enjoy your shinny beads.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #176,997
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:56pm Jan 3, 2010 11:56pm
well at least they are playing the game as a country. We cant seem to decide what is better fiscal responsibility or social comfort.

Quoting gatorinla
china will unpeg as usd goes up. like they have done... making crap even cheaper. china dont care. they want to eliminate competition.. europe/japan is competition.. china wants to dominate the world..now sit down and enjoy your shinny beads.
  • #176,998
  • Jan 4, 2010 12:01am Jan 4, 2010 12:01am
Quoting klinckphilip
well at least they are playing the game as a country. We cant seem to decide what is better fiscal responsibility or social comfort.
depends... we just had all the social comfort go out the back door to the big boys. but to some they discount the back door cause they dont see it. and the oxcontin evanglelist get paid by the big boys and dont report it. so the sheep follow them..

we the strongest nation gave it all away to build china. for the ellite for 2$ tennis shoes we built china. and now they compete against us for oil and other commodities.. you dont remain strong by helping your competion. you become weak... we gave away the store.. some just are blind..because the mouth pieces of the ellite brain wash them...wrapped in the free trade flag... its not free..its loss of freedom..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #176,999
  • Jan 4, 2010 12:20am Jan 4, 2010 12:20am
Quoting MTF Test
EU Mid Term
Hi MTF,

Appreciate if you could post the various indicators used on your chart alon with the template file.

Thanks in anticipation

TF
  • #177,000
  • Jan 4, 2010 12:27am Jan 4, 2010 12:27am
Quoting gatorinla
china will unpeg as usd goes up. like they have done... making crap even cheaper. china dont care. they want to eliminate competition.. europe/japan is competition.. china wants to dominate the world..now sit down and enjoy your shinny beads.

Gator this is the game we human have been playing for centuries.

My beads run in cycles like Indus ....Inkas.... Mayans..... Egyptians ....Chinese Dynasties / silk empire .....Ottoman empire.... Farangies/Dutch .... French.....British Raj .... USSR ....USA .... China ......Indus ....Inkas.... Mayans..... Egyptians ....Chinese Dynasties / silk empire .....Ottoman empire.... Farangies, French.....British Raj .... USSR ....USA .... China ......Indus ...... so on. The word is Capitulation.
The Thief of Wall Street
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