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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,841
  • Jan 1, 2010 2:26pm Jan 1, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Hey Compass. Just to clarify something on the fib pulling thing. I always pull them so that the zero is at the bottom of my fib and the 100 at the top regardless of price direction. Now, it all depends on how you set your fib up because each level is equidistant from either end, you can totally do away with the percentage numbers and type what you like, mine all say "I'll have a Baileys".

Hey we have Assasins Creed 2 but we haven't played it yet, is it any good?

MD.

Hi Md,

The Fib when correctly pulled should always have the zero line in the direction of the wave.

In other words an up wave should have the zero line at the top and vice versa for a down wave.

This is crucial because between the 0 line and 100 line we are looking to measure the correct level of retracement for that wave. This gives us our projected level that price will run to when the extension zone is entered.
Pull the Fib in reverse and all your retracement data is wrong.

As for Assasins creed 2, it requires one to complete training before the game can commence (a bit frustrating). Although if you've had enough Baileys you don't seem to care what is going on as much.

Hope you are well after the celebrations....
  • #4,842
  • Jan 1, 2010 2:30pm Jan 1, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Hey Compass. Just to clarify something on the fib pulling thing. I always pull them so that the zero is at the bottom of my fib and the 100 at the top regardless of price direction. Now, it all depends on how you set your fib up because each level is equidistant from either end, you can totally do away with the percentage numbers and type what you like, mine all say "I'll have a Baileys".

Hey we have Assasins Creed 2 but we haven't played it yet, is it any good?

MD.
Exactly . I've renamed my inner fib levels DZ .

I've put the blue/red fibs on my 4 hr eu chart separately.
Blue fib - I'm thinking long. Starting point - SL.
Red Fib - I'm thinking short. Starting point - SH.
Swing them high or swing them low, whichever rocks your boat.
Apologies for the confusion.
When I'm pulling fibs, I'm just thinking starting point and direction. The inner levels remain equidistant .

SK
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu bluefib.JPG Size: 194 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu redfib.JPG Size: 187 KB
  • #4,843
  • Jan 1, 2010 2:44pm Jan 1, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi Md,

The Fib when correctly pulled should always have the zero line in the direction of the wave.

In other words an up wave should have the zero line at the top and vice versa for a down wave.

This is crucial because between the...
Trader365, your comments are well received, a lot of what you say is already in my psyche and new traders would do well to heed your words!

Thanks Compass, I understand, it's the simple things in life....I was pulling my fibs one way due to earlier teachings either by Skunny or Bobokus, I can't remember which now.

There again if you are only looking to target a 138 ext either end or from a 76.4 (78.2) or a 23.6 to a 50 then it doesn't matter which way up is down. Also, I have tried aiming for my target, getting there and then chasing it on with a tight stop without a target in mind, waiting for the market to take me out.

I hear what you said about the game "As for Assasins creed 2, it requires one to complete training before the game can commence (a bit frustrating). " Sounds a bit like this place.

I've had enough of Christmas and New Year fare now stuffed to the gills. I'm not having anymore drink. Hold on my wife wants me...what..what!...Do I want a .....Bailleys.....errrr....yes please.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,844
  • Jan 1, 2010 2:45pm Jan 1, 2010 2:45pm
[quote=trader365;3334937][quote=Misterdaz;3334277]
Quoting trader365

Trader365, first of all Happy New Year. I just wanted to say I haven't ignored your posts and agree with you, value is the core of all price action. Supply and demand the basis of all trading. I see major S/R on the charts, I always watch the left hand side of a chart. I think most of the guys here share my thoughts but they like me find the fibs fascinating and in most cases successful. Why? They are not magic, naturally occuring ratios throughout our existence, our world? Sounds like cobblers...
Hi Trader365,

I agree with nearly all you have stated.

I am related to two very large institutional traders who both use Fibs.
Elliot Wave primarily which is closely tied to what we are using here.

I believe Fibs are always accurate if correctly plotted.
But I can see that this occurs because by their nature, they always align themselves with significant Support/Resistance levels, thus making them in sync. with the natural market movement according to PA and volumes.

I have personally traded them for the past year and studied them for a number of years prior. I have found them to have an accuracy rate of greater than 90%. I would have to agree with one comment made by Skunny... It is the error made by us in placing the Fibs that will lead to them being wrong.

Ponder this for a moment :

Volume and Price action create Support and Resistance levels on every chart.

If Fibs utilise the significant points of these Support and resistance levels (wave highs and lows) when plotted correctly, then it is not hard to see why they produce such a high degree of accuracy.

As to retracement and projection levels, I am always amazed as to why the market consistently retraces to certain levels and then extends to levels on a regular basis according to Fib calculations.
  • #4,845
  • Jan 1, 2010 2:48pm Jan 1, 2010 2:48pm
Is DZ short for DAZ, that's sweet. Nah, it's decision zone.
Keep smiling
  • #4,846
  • Jan 1, 2010 2:48pm Jan 1, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Trader365, your comments are well received, a lot of what you say is already in my psyche and new traders would do well to heed your words!

Thanks Compass, I understand, it's the simple things in life....I was pulling my fibs one way due to earlier teachings either by Skunny or Bobokus, I can't remeber which now.

There again if you are only looking to target a 138 ext either end or from a 76.4 (78.2) or a 23.6 to a 50 then it doesn't matter which way up is down. Also, I have tried aiming for my target, getting there...
Another Baileys why not
  • #4,847
  • Jan 1, 2010 5:04pm Jan 1, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi Md,

The Fib when correctly pulled should always have the zero line in the direction of the wave.

In other words an up wave should have the zero line at the top and vice versa for a down wave.

This is crucial because between the...

Actually , unless you looking for a specific level of the inner fib , Mdaz is right on his explanation.If you just looking for a reaction on any of the inner levels (38,50,61) it doesnt really matter the way you pull the fibs ;distance will be the same and so the extension.

I'm making this point because I trade after I learn fibs from Bobokus thread. You guys apply the fibs different here than I do ,but this doesn't matter, as long as it works for you.
  • #4,848
  • Jan 1, 2010 5:41pm Jan 1, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting speedarad
Actually , unless you looking for a specific level of the inner fib , Mdaz is right on his explanation.If you just looking for a reaction on any of the inner levels (38,50,61) it doesnt really matter the way you pull the fibs ;distance will be the same and so the extension.

I'm making this point because I trade after I learn fibs from Bobokus thread. You guys apply the fibs different here than I do ,but this doesn't matter, as long as it works for you.
Yes it doesn't really matter if you are jumping from level to level but I also take Compass's point on board, to correctly measure a pullback or forecast a projection a fib must be drawn the right way around.

The flexibily of fibs eh?

Did you know I can drink a glass of Baileys in 38.2 seconds.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,849
  • Jan 1, 2010 6:08pm Jan 1, 2010 6:08pm
[quote=trader365;3334937][quote=Misterdaz;3334277]
Quoting trader365

Trader365, first of all Happy New Year. I just wanted to say I haven't ignored your posts and agree with you, value is the core of all price action. Supply and demand the basis of all trading. I see major S/R on the charts, I always watch the left hand side of a chart. I think most of the guys here share my thoughts but they like me find the fibs fascinating and in most cases successful. Why? They are not magic, naturally occuring ratios throughout our existence, our world? Sounds like cobblers...
What a great post..Thanks for sharing T365..Please forgive me man, but If I am not mistaken, you and I were dialoging through email a while back. I think that was you anyways..

I beleive the old 95% of traders fail stats more and more as time progresses. I beleive there are many reasons for this. One of them is the way in which trading is presented to new traders. The first door most folks go through is that of trade analysis..As I have learned, it's all a huge trap. The wife and I have CNN on most evenings and one retail FX broker has been running commercials there for sometime. One of the main points of the commercial is that trading foreign currency is easy while showing charts with MAs and and colorful indicators scrolling across the background. Each time I see the commercial it gives me a good chuckle. The liquidity has to come from somewhere I suppose. The same thing goes for all the retail stock trading companies too.

I have a strong working hypothesis on why fibs work that is very logical. For a long time they were nonsense to me and in just the last 8 months or so the blinders have come off. Even with this knowledge I don't take trades based on just fibs, they truly get a trader in way too late or in dangerous places.

If there is one method that gets closest to the holy grail though, it is Elliot wave. I won't even say why, but those of you who are in the loop would agree with me. The common explanation for Elliot Wave is absolute nonsense, but there is something to it. If you put in the studying time and actually gain an understanding of the market that is based in reality, you can confidently enter a sizable position light years before the Skunny boys have a 'trigger' to trade.

All trading really is, is kindergarten math. A baby could trade profitably if he or she only knew the truth.
  • #4,850
  • Jan 1, 2010 6:56pm Jan 1, 2010 6:56pm
Scotty, if there is one analysis I can't get my head around it's Elliot Wave. I speak to different Technical Analyst at various London banks and quite a few of them use wave theory, none of them ever agree on the the same wave patterns and that's my problem with it, ambiguity. You can sit 10 Ellioticians in a room and they all come up with different patterns.

But that's me, I can't say I've tried really hard to understand it, I've been put off by the reasons above. We all see different shapes in the clouds I suppose. I'm sure if you sat a few of us here down we would all pull different fibs on the same chart.

I think Trader365 called it right though, stick to your system and do not deviate from it. That's the hardest part, the discipline.

I like the fibs, they fit with my little brain, if I win 50% of the time, with my money management I will do very well thankyou.

Since reading this thread and conversing in it I have learnt a lot, I even think I am starting to understand Thom! I take my hat off to you Scotty and all the other guys here, this has been a revelation to me and that comes from someone with several years money market and fx experience.

I look forward to continued posts here in the New Year.

God bless MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,851
  • Jan 1, 2010 10:27pm Jan 1, 2010 10:27pm
Yes Scotty, that was me.
I agree about new traders getting sucked in to the fancy software with 500 indies and countless built in strategies to choose from. I also think that people should throw their TV's out the window unless they promise only to have on only cartoons in the background. No internet surfing on news sites of any kind......it is pure poison.

I like to surf when I'm not trading. Waves come in sets & some sets are better than others....much like elliot. We can talk about fib ratios with waves as well but my head might explode. I do not like elliot wave as much as I do, plain old waves...impulse, rtc...impulse, rtc etc we can call these fractals or harmonics etc but it doesn't really matter much to me, as long as I realize what is going on at the moment. Elliot is too rigid for me and waves need to follow rules in order to be counted or not. When I focus on the impulse waves, I really am just looking for vol or PA to be active during each impulse. When the 3rd impulse wave forms with a vol surge or erratic PA, I view it as a simple 3 drive pattern with vol/PA. This move works best when going into a s/r level or the top/bot of a trading range.

This stuff happens on all TF charts. I personally enter trades on very short TF chart...1 min or less. This allows me to see how squirrely the PA gets....tails start forming and price oscillates. Sometimes it's just a complete "V" reversal but that's a diff discussion.

I might see a 3 drive(5 wave) setting up on a 15 min chart, with a measured move, into an area that I'm interested in getting involved. I will look inside the 15 min(1 or 3 min for eg) and notice another, smaller 3 drive or 5 wave, looking to set up in the same area. If my s/r is in place, I'm ready to get involved. It's the PA or jumpiness that helps time a low risk entry. When I see the PA get weird it tells me that buyers and sellers have reached equilibrium....hopefully long enough to yield a profitable trade. Often PA will tell me when I'm wrong or I entered too early and I'm able to limit the damage, Hopefully that all makes some kind of sense.

The rtc wave in elliot are nothing more than backfills of an area that price just left from. When rtc wave is shallow, momo is good....when rtc wave is deeper, momo might be running out of steam. I need to keep things simple, take profits and have a risk free trade asap. I'd rather trade size for 12 pips/ticks than trade small for 100 pips/ticks, but that's just me. I won't add into a trade unless it's predetermined before I enter the initial position. I'd rather take my loss and re enter the trade, even if it is at a worse price.

Everyone trades differently and it doesn't really matter as long as u follow your rules. I don't like mkt risk so I don't expose myself for long periods of time & I never hold over night . Some traders are the exact opposite. It must be in your game plan and the plan cannot change once you are in the trade. Let me be more clear on that.....if u r in a trade and your levels are holding (maybe u have taken some profit) & your stops are appropriate, that's fine. If levels are not holding and stops are loosened, this becomes a big problem and will usually lead to a trader blowing out his/her acct.

Agree with me or not, fibs or elliot, MACD or RSI....please take it form me, if u don't have a plan or u deviate from your plan, it will catch up to you & end your trading career.

Good Trading
  • #4,852
  • Jan 2, 2010 6:03am Jan 2, 2010 6:03am
Quoting Scotty B
One of the main points of the commercial is that trading foreign currency is easy . . . .

All trading really is, is kindergarten math. A baby could trade profitably if he or she only knew the truth.
so I guess you agree with the commercial


Happy New Year to one and all.
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #4,853
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:10am Jan 2, 2010 11:10am
Quoting RaptorUK
so I guess you agree with the commercial


Happy New Year to one and all.

Lol..In a one sense and not another..It's all about the means to which a person 'gets there.' Buy setting people up to come into trading through the back door, these brokerages only pad their pockets.

The key is knowing the truth.
  • #4,854
  • Jan 2, 2010 2:38pm Jan 2, 2010 2:38pm
happy new year everyone....

I've been trying to read the thread and started at the beginning, only to find, the more I progressed thro it - the more confused I became...and I still have nigh on 2 years to read! Then I skip to the end and haven't a clue with relevance to thread origin what is going on now...Is there somewhere in the thread, (a point, a page) that Skunny's teachings become less riddle-like and one knows how to set fibs/place stops/survive forex... whether it be long/medium/short time frame?

Or is it just subjective, and the thread evolves the more I read, so I just carry on reading?

Are you still using the fibs/fib extensions the way thread initially started out or have things changed as market conditions have changed in the years since the thread began?

Realise I'm asking for a shortcut here, and I am readily prepared to spend time backtesting, etc...just don't want to spend another couple of days brain frazzled reading every post, only to find that the method have changed dramatically over the years.

Thanks for the thread and the time everyone has spent on it. I've used fibs before, tho not with confidence.

I'm more of a lurker than poster and still searching for something within forex that I can make applicable to me. Perhaps I'll never get there!

But I'll have tried. cheers.
  • #4,855
  • Jan 2, 2010 3:21pm Jan 2, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting ShahJB

In short, 100% is not impossible but it is not easy. Understanding the structures within structures is something very essential.
Quoting trader365
I'm not being disrespectful when I say this. I'm trying to be helpful. When you have been there and pissed away nice sums of cash and then get back up and in the game just to get knocked down again, you will want to know what really makes the mkts tick. It's value. The good old auction theory at its very best. The head fakes, the back fills and all the other BS, in it's purest form.
I'm not saying that you can't make a living with Fibs or MACD or RSI or even a small ceremonial sacrifice on the living room floor from time to time but it's...
"Soylent Green is People"...

The market is people...
  • #4,856
  • Jan 2, 2010 3:42pm Jan 2, 2010 3:42pm
Oy!

Happy New Year! I have read a smattering of the posts heretofore and putting in my 2 dimes.

Yes the market is people and we move it. To the best of my ability what Skunny's plication of fibs or perhaps EW wave do... or Gann... is illustrate the framework in which we will predictably react time and time again.

How or why this is possible is another question but it is. In my estimation following market flow gives you the now which is just keen. Fibs and or EW ( of which I have no clue about) give you the future.

It would be akin to knowing he next few page or being able to see a synopsis of the whole book...or at least chapter.

Life is all math. The markets and people are no different in my mind. Everything is ordered and not random or subject to whims of us folk on a real level. The market will go where it is going and the spot is predetermined, in my mind and trading, and not a spur of the moment decision. regardles that is my market view and how I trade. Let us all take some more money from the punters this year!

Side note... an interseting observable phenomenon is when we try to pull the market away from where it is going... you notice a very harsh, violent and fast snap back in the "right" direction. I suppose you could say in different terms.. where big money wants it to go or where when it find a discount to it real target... all a manner of saying the same thing.

TK

EDIT: and of course you do not need fibs to trade profitably or be insanely successful.. in fact, I might submit if you cannot simply trade observable sr... I might start there. I don;t view this thread as a miracle thread for unsuccessful traders, but more of a eye opener for successful traders..or at least was for me.
  • #4,857
  • Jan 2, 2010 4:21pm Jan 2, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting annieb
happy new year everyone....

I've been trying to read the thread and started at the beginning, only to find, the more I progressed thro it - the more confused I became...and I still have nigh on 2 years to read! Then I skip to the end and haven't a clue with relevance to thread origin what is going on now...Is there somewhere in the thread, (a point, a page) that Skunny's teachings become less riddle-like and one knows how to set fibs/place stops/survive forex... whether it be long/medium/short time frame?

Or is it just subjective, and the thread...
Yeah this sure is a long frustrating read. You can look for the Skunny PDF attachment with all his posts in it, there are not that many but are better read within the context of the thread. There is also the controversy of whether Skunny was on the level, I'll let you decide that one.

What's happened here is many people have taken ideas from this thread and developed their own methods. So, you will not find a rigid system here, only inspiration.

You need to ground yourself with a good understanding of support and resistance or supply and demand, whatever you want to call it.

I have learnt a lot since I started posting here which is just over a month back. Pay attention to Thomknight, when you deciper his posts you can explain them to me (just kidding Thom). FX Compass has some nice ideas, there are wise words from Dunkan, 4X4ever and Trader365. ScottyB adds some constructive criticism.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,858
  • Jan 2, 2010 4:23pm Jan 2, 2010 4:23pm
Anyone want to pick a pair and take a stab at where it is going? maybe long term. Those are often quite the hoot. I only trade GY and supplement with EU now and again. So I know where they are going, but perhaps for excercise we could do others.. or perhaps those and work from there.


Cheers.

TK.
  • #4,859
  • Jan 2, 2010 4:31pm Jan 2, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Yeah this sure is a long frustrating read. You can look for the Skunny PDF attachment with all his posts in it, there are not that many but are better read within the context of the thread. There is also the controversy of whether Skunny was on the level, I'll let you decide that one.

What's happened here is many people have taken ideas from this thread and developed their own methods. So, you will not find a rigid system here, only inspiration.

You need to ground yourself with a good understanding of support and resistance or supply and demand,...
G'Day

Yes mate! Like I said... i remeber reading Skunny's post and thinking he was a certain Star Wars character , but in retrospect it was clear as day.....but only coming from a place of understanding. I spents hours on hours trying to decipher what he meant from my understanding level.... and then i tjust started to work with it... and after an embarassingly long time...things made sense in retrospect.

It is akin to someone dexcribing a rhino to someone who has never seen one.. it may not really make sense and what you picture in your mind might not be so much the right thing...hence you have trouble baggin one from the description perhaps.. he basically gave us tickets to safari... and told us about it...but it may not( didn't for me) make sense until i just got my passport and went for myself into the bush.

I think it is a side splitter that now my posts seem to be in a strange dialect as to me they seem completely simple. A word from my experience... don't assume you know what it is until you see it. I thought it was omething completely different from what i found it to be. ONce i stopped trying to force my picture of what it was on to it...and just sat back with field glasses hunting became much easier. The big one, for this bloke, was looking for to the tick hits on everything. Sigh. We live and we learn I suppose.
  • #4,860
  • Jan 2, 2010 4:37pm Jan 2, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting annieb
happy new year everyone....

I've been trying to read the thread and started at the beginning, only to find, the more I progressed thro it - the more confused I became...and I still have nigh on 2 years to read! Then I skip to the end and haven't a clue with relevance to thread origin what is going on now...Is there somewhere in the thread, (a point, a page) that Skunny's teachings become less riddle-like and one knows how to set fibs/place stops/survive forex... whether it be long/medium/short time frame?

Or is it just subjective, and the thread...
No Ma'am. The song remains the same. I do not know of a short cut. I would postulate that paying attention to fib respect might be one.

File under what i wish I would have known then... , for me, a fib is only working... when it is getting respect and start from the 61.8 and work from there methinks or not. To each his/her own. My personal trading is living proof Skunny was on the level as I am a born skeptic...an open minded one though.

TK
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