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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,781
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:25pm Dec 30, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hi Skong,

Last I heard he was overdosing on Baileys and trying to shoot everything on the XBox with his son.
I see the handbags have been out again.

SK, busy with family, arguing mainly.

Compass, everyone keeps shooting me on Xbox.

Anyway went to see Avatar in 3D today, not really a great story line but that's not why we go right. Absolutely awesome, the 3D effect is brilliant, the CGI superb and colours and creatures, ships, the whole thing is magic. Forget the fibs, go and see Avatar.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,782
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:31pm Dec 30, 2009 5:31pm
Quoting ThomKnight
this is what I am looking at on EY.

TK
Alright...Lets start with this one. We know it was a winner. Why did you draw your fib here? What about this fib let you knew it would be 100%?

You conformed your fib to get a T1 hit to the low side and then left the fib in place. The initial fib was triggered and bounced off the 38 before going to the target. You leave this fib in place and get a trigger to the upside and then more inner fib respect. But why does price have to go to the upper T1?
  • #4,783
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:35pm Dec 30, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I see the handbags have been out again.

SK, busy with family, arguing mainly.

Compass, everyone keeps shooting me on Xbox.

Anyway went to see Avatar in 3D today, not really a great story line but that's not why we go right. Absolutely awesome, the 3D effect is brilliant, the CGI superb and colours and creatures, ships, the whole thing is magic. Forget the fibs, go and see Avatar.

MD.
There you are. So you reckon Avatar is the way to go huh?
Is that you or is it Bailey talking ?
What say you compass ?

sk
  • #4,784
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:39pm Dec 30, 2009 5:39pm
I'm going to bully you now. Your fib level 78.2, is that correct? Shouldn't it be 76.4?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,785
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:42pm Dec 30, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting skong
There you are. So you reckon Avatar is the way to go huh?
Is that you or is it Bailey talking ?
What say you compass ?

sk
Hey Skong. I haven't had any Baileys tonight but I'll check the fridge, just a second..........
Keep smiling
  • #4,786
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:47pm Dec 30, 2009 5:47pm
Still some left.. mmmm.

Yeah, Avatar was great, the 3D effect is brilliant I'd love to know how they do it. It really adds another level to the experience. It's not the old fashioned 3D either with the red and blue glasses, it's more like the IMAX method.

How's the testing going SK? You must remind me what you mean by calibrated fib.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,787
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:49pm Dec 30, 2009 5:49pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I'm going to bully you now. Your fib level 78.2, is that correct? Shouldn't it be 76.4?

MD.
Hey MD it's 78.6 .... are you sure you haven't been drinking ?
  • #4,788
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:52pm Dec 30, 2009 5:52pm
Does anyone realize that fibs have nothing at all to do with trading? I mean I realize that prices look like they are magically attracted to the lovely colored fib lines and all but if I threw a dart at my monitor, then drew a horizontal line there...... price would appear to be attracted or repelled from that line. The one thing that I can a guarantee, and there are not too many guarantees in trading, is that price will trade either above or below that line....as long as the mkts are still open for business. Value is all that matters to traders. Where are we getting a good deal.
When u buy a car,a house, a boat, a plane, do u shop around or just buy it from the 1st dealership u walk in to? Most of us would probably say they shop around to get the best deal, whether it's price, service or a combination. So as a trader, why would you think the mkts were any different? I'll tell you why.............because they're not!!
If anything, the mkts are more critical of value than any of us ever will be. They don't move form level to level magically or because it' s a full moon or some fib # is there. They move from level to level like tiger woods moves from girl to girl.....each one has a specific value. Personally, I thought he had good value with his wife but just like the mkts, you never know for sure.
Selling pressure ends when value levels are found and then buying pressure begins So be careful with all the fancy and fib levels....they might seem to work because price reacts at or near that area but that's only because there is an underlying factor that many overlook...........value.

Happy New Year to all

Good Trading
  • #4,789
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:53pm Dec 30, 2009 5:53pm
Lots of alcohol being moved around the house....
Where are they going with that stuff ?

See you next year guys and Happy New Year.=
  • #4,790
  • Dec 30, 2009 6:05pm Dec 30, 2009 6:05pm
I truly believe that my post will be greeted with a certain amount of skeptism, prejudice or critiscm but i will not be bothered. Everyone has their own opinion. But skeptism will just completely hinder someone in viewing something from a different point of perspective.

My journey started way back in 2007, in which i had a profound interest in the works of Gann, sacred geometry, astrology etc.

I have been studying fibs even before this thread existed, with some point of similarity in which i am not obliged to disclose or share since i spent millions of hours of screen time and frustration before i found it. Yes, i have sacrificed a lot, fallen down hard, on a verge of giving up etc before reaching a certain level of understanding.

The most important hint that Skunny had pointed out in this thread is regarding "fib within fib". Price moves in fractals. In fact, everything in nature does. Each and every movement occurs with a specific target.

In short, 100% is not impossible but it is not easy. Understanding the structures within structures is something very essential.

With this post, I'm just trying to convey a message to everyone to think outside of the box, do not give up whatever the circumstances, research and study hard, always look at things from different perspectives.

Quote from Gann, "There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things."
  • #4,791
  • Dec 30, 2009 6:20pm Dec 30, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting FX Compass
Hey MD it's 78.6 .... are you sure you haven't been drinking ?
I haven't been drinking much! Google fib 78.2 and fib 76.4, you will get hits for both. Which is it? I can't work out the calculation for it. I now how to get to .318 and .618 etc but I can't find the 2 numbers which give us the answer I'm looking for. Just one of those annoying little things that's been bothering me. Doesn't really matter.

Anyway have a very happy new year. If you're having a drink mines a Baileys or a scotch or a Carlsberg or a......

Be safe and see you next year.

Attached Image


Cheers MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,792
  • Dec 30, 2009 6:36pm Dec 30, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I haven't been drinking much! Google fib 78.2 and fib 76.4, you will get hits for both. Which is it? I can't work out the calculation for it. I now how to get to .318 and .618 etc but I can't find the 2 numbers which give us the answer I'm looking for. Just one of those annoying little things that's been bothering me. Doesn't really matter.

Anyway have a very happy new year. If you're having a drink mines a Baileys or a scotch or a Carlsberg or a......

Be safe and see you next year.

Attachment

Cheers MD.
MD,
You're getting deep now.
0.786 is the squareroot of 0.618.
0.236 is one of the fib retracements but not commonly used.
1 - 0.236 gives you 0.764.

SK
  • #4,793
  • Dec 30, 2009 6:37pm Dec 30, 2009 6:37pm
Quoting FX Compass
Lots of alcohol being moved around the house....
Where are they going with that stuff ?

See you next year guys and Happy New Year.=
AMEN Brother!
  • #4,794
  • Dec 30, 2009 6:37pm Dec 30, 2009 6:37pm
Sorry MD, just kidding with you.

78.6 taken straight from FXKnight settings.

You have a safe one too.
  • #4,795
  • Dec 30, 2009 8:28pm Dec 30, 2009 8:28pm
Quoting ShahJB
I truly believe that my post will be greeted with a certain amount of skeptism, prejudice or critiscm but i will not be bothered. Everyone has their own opinion. But skeptism will just completely hinder someone in viewing something from a different point of perspective.

My journey started way back in 2007, in which i had a profound interest in the works of Gann, sacred geometry, astrology etc.

I have been studying fibs even before this thread existed, with some point of similarity in which i am not obliged to disclose or share since i spent...
Good Show!

Also... way back mate. Sigh. I wish 3 years was way back. Sacred Geometry... Astrology etc.. I have no clue how to work them for trading , but I am 100% sure they do work.

I second the keep an open mind. At one time... the earth was flat or the center of the universe depending on whom you talked to.
  • #4,796
  • Dec 30, 2009 10:58pm Dec 30, 2009 10:58pm
[quote=ShahJB;3332912]

In short, 100% is not impossible but it is not easy. Understanding the structures within structures is something very essential.

With all due respect...that's a recipe for disaster for 99.999% of the traders out there, especially for some of the new traders who have only been trading for 5 years or so full time. This is not a game, even though applying game theory will help tremendously with money mngt. This is about value traders taking $$ from other, less experienced traders accts and putting it in their acct. If you think that value traders are looking to put there hard earned $$ on a 1.38 extension.....unless that 1.38 happens to line up with a place of value, then I might suggest a trip to the floor of an exchange......for about a solid month
I'm not being disrespectful when I say this. I'm trying to be helpful. When you have been there and pissed away nice sums of cash and then get back up and in the game just to get knocked down again, you will want to know what really makes the mkts tick. It's value. The good old auction theory at its very best. The head fakes, the back fills and all the other BS, in it's purest form.
I'm not saying that you can't make a living with Fibs or MACD or RSI or even a small ceremonial sacrifice on the living room floor from time to time but it's like shorting in an uptrend...it's doable but a tough way to earn a living on a consistent basis, year in and year out.
Maybe the big question is, what comes first, the chicken (Fib) or the egg (Value)?

Good Trading
  • #4,797
  • Dec 31, 2009 6:53am Dec 31, 2009 6:53am
After some thought and good sleep I've decided to back off my absolute statement that using fibs to trade 100% is impossible. I agree I've been a little bit on the wet blanket side. No, I don't have proof that fibs don't work 100% but I will remain a heathly, positive skeptic, and continue to ask questions.

If fibs are 100%, then there would have to be something behind the market making it happen. The interesting thing is that the market would be unknowingly (at least to the majority of participants) following this very calculated and precise algorithim. It's something that trancends the market itself, hence the philosophical and scientific implications.

I think the idea that thom is sending under the radar, is that price is ussually following some fib that cannot be mechanically pulled through each swing, but as price moves and S/R reveals itself and enough respect becomes apparent then price will continue following the fib to a 1.382 target.

Here is a fib I drew and I am wondering if thom would have taken this trade before the break of the 0/100 on account of the respect alone? I've seen a couple of your charts where you talk about trading before the break.

Thanks, and sorry for being a little abrasive..

Scotty B

Edit*** The reason I ask about entering before the break...In looking at this trade from the perspective of S/R, the 38 was resistance, it is broken and price immeadiatley respects the 50 (telling us the fib is 'there') then the 38 that was just broken becomes support. The 61.8 is then breached and was respected in the past..Just some food for thought...
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  • #4,798
  • Dec 31, 2009 7:18am Dec 31, 2009 7:18am
the problem with fibs is - if you draw enough fibs, there will be one that fits perfectly.

only problem is that it does not work in real-time.

sometimes you can draw a fib and it works out.. sometimes it does not. same as with any other indicator, lol.

before somebody gets this thread live and active again, I want to remind you that Skunny is a fraud.
  • #4,799
  • Dec 31, 2009 8:28am Dec 31, 2009 8:28am
So here's a few questions that some of you may or may not want to consider. Why is a tail, a tail? Chicken or the egg. What does a tail really represent? Is there a common denominator when a tail forms?

Lets take a tail at the top, fro example. At it's highest point....the very tippy tippy top, there was a buyer and a seller that paired off & a trade took place. So there are several possibilities.
1. Was the seller taking profits on a long position (L)
2. Was the seller opening a short position (SS)
3. Was the buyer opening a L position
4. Was the buyer adding to a L position

So just taking these 4 scenarios, obviously there might be a comination of things going on here. Odds and probabilities (OP) say, over the long run, that not every party made $$ at that level. Someone probably got there butt kicked (BK). If the buyer, for example, thought it was a Break Out (BO) and a great place to enter a L they might quickly realize that they were wrong and take a stop out.
So looking at a chart and seeing the tails at the top of a pattern tells me that there was not much trading up there = NO VOLUME. So no volume= tail. It's a place where not many people want to transact business and then price retraces to a level of comfort and we see candle bodies that overlap....this is where people, the masses, see value.
How to predict those levels is what everyone wants to know...the holy grail, if u will.

The tails and bodies create zones or ranges. Tails are low volume zones and bodies are high vol zones. price gets attracted and rejected from these areas. We can always pull a Fib to line up with a zone because the zones are all over the place. The best zones are the one created during the regular trading hours because there are more people doing business then= high volume.
So the next time u get your BK or u make $$....look to the left of the chart and u will probably see the reason why.
Again, did the Fib create the zone or did the zone create the Fib.....either way, nothing is 100%. Don't kid yourself. u can make a fortune trading at 50%, let alone 70%. Admit when a trade is not working, ACCEPT it and move on.....thats the hardest part.

Good Trading
  • #4,800
  • Dec 31, 2009 1:28pm Dec 31, 2009 1:28pm
Quoting Scotty B
After some thought and good sleep I've decided to back off my absolute statement that using fibs to trade 100% is impossible. I agree I've been a little bit on the wet blanket side. No, I don't have proof that fibs don't work 100% but I will remain a heathly, positive skeptic, and continue to ask questions.

If fibs are 100%, then there would have to be something behind the market making it happen. The interesting thing is that the market would be unknowingly (at least to the majority of participants) following this very calculated and precise...
Excellent mate! I do personally believe... that there is some unknown order... it is the only thing that fit with what I see. , but to each its own.

My thought is this... if you don't have that working hypothesis then.. this style of fibbing will never jive with a trader since. it is not his market view.

I think we can only trade based off of how we view the market to work. If it is Sr.. then that... supply and demand... then that.. etc.. et al.

Yes.. this does fly in the face of convention, but I see it work all the time so I am left to believe through proof it is real regardless of how outlandish it seems. I don;t care so much why it works... just that it does.

On the topic of this fib... i would not have traded it at all and I personally never enter before the break.. UNLESS it is off of a smaller fib that has broken or if I am in a round trip to the tick fib... sometimes I will after it breaks the middle fibs levels. It is personal preference how to trade it.

There are oft time multiple fibs running in conjunction and again I stress it is all about, for me, using the tool to illuminate them so i can trade.


TK
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