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  • #176,841
  • Jan 2, 2010 7:56am Jan 2, 2010 7:56am
Quoting malcolmb14
Who cares if gold goes to 750 or if gold goes to 2000. As long as volatility is there I am making a load of cash trading it.
That's why I don't understand what's your point, cause we were talking

pretty much about long term view and you are daily pip scalper. $Dullah goes to

120? Oh yeah.. please.. It will tank as soon as tomorrow.. Let's watch.

The only thing, which could somewhat move Dollar up is Deflation and Market

crash in any other event Dollar going down.

In terms of charts I rely only on short term view. Cause just few days ago all charts was point to

Cable drop to 1.57 and then 1.53 and pair just screw all the tech stuff and move up 250 pips.

If you going to see 80 on index on current USD move up, that be huge, but I don't think even that target would be hit.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #176,842
  • Jan 2, 2010 7:58am Jan 2, 2010 7:58am
Quoting Jasper
The main trend on EU is up, and has been so since Nov 3rd 2008. I consider we are in a retrace presently, which has got every possibility of turning back up at 1.4303, (I could of course be very wrong). I have arrived at 1.4303 whilst topping down from Weekly, Daily, 3hourly, and 1 hourly Charts.
I am long at 1.4432, with a S/L at 1.4260, but I would close the position should Price get below 1.4274.

I would also take on another long above 1.4303, should I see the opportunity!!
What can i SAY..........
Everyone Read his Own Chart on his Own Way
  • #176,843
  • Jan 2, 2010 8:14am Jan 2, 2010 8:14am
Quoting Patience
Thanks for the chart. Will bang those levels on a chart and see how it goes. Got in at 1.6228 and nicked some. Had noted that 1.6230 was a stop level for some posters and it had done a range of 180 pips for the day so considered it to be relatively safe. Already out though. Have many painful past memories of G/U that I have to get over so will trade it with some caution and need to familiarise myself with it's levels. A/J is my favourite currency at the moment. It's a nice mover, uses less margin than E/U and G/U and the rollover is about the best...
red chart was st... but it can be extended by adding an equal amount of space betwen lines for next level. 50% are always levels too. it just cuts tf in half..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #176,844
  • Jan 2, 2010 8:17am Jan 2, 2010 8:17am
Discard it as a colorfull picture get it while seeing the relative movements of different pairs last year , all the same cup & handle & almost ready all to up together!!
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #176,845
  • Jan 2, 2010 9:17am Jan 2, 2010 9:17am
Big

another good question .

Mostly I use Volume on lower times frames , 4 hr down. So I do not think as more are drawn to trade forex it will impact forex. Also fx is a 3 trillion business daily. Even 4000 retail investors a day trading 2 standard each i doubt will barely have an impact on volumes on the daily / wekly charts.

If you analyze volume in realtion to the candle , that is vsa. vsa is not really about knowing how many ticks it takes to make a cycle , it is ot that complicated. Here is a chart of gs .. that with vsa can be palyed liek a fiddle. In fact i do trade GS options.

2nd chart gs shows sideways channel with sellers on top ( buying cliamxes and buyers on bottom) being that there are 2 buying cliamxes and only 1 stopping volume and now we have a low volume mark up I have a feeleing that GS is going to break down into the 150 area

I am going to buy 1000 out of the money feb 160 puts for 4.3 each. Once they hit target these will be worth about $9 ish . Nice way to play the short side of market in the pension plan here as we can trade options.

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Quoting Big1red9
Happy New Year Malcolm,

On volume. I have a few questions.

As more people are drawn to trade in forex or a broker expands its operation, the volume is impacted.

Could that throw off analysis in a meaningful way? If yes, a solution could be the monitoring the average number of ticks or the average trade size(Total volume / #of ticks for the TF) OR is it that the comparison of volumes is so close to gather from a calendar perspective it isn't important?

I had a thought about analyzing volume and wondered if it is either part of VSA or something...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #176,846
  • Jan 2, 2010 9:19am Jan 2, 2010 9:19am
lol you got me ....

DR G and I are looking at es , dj and it looks really weak on daily and weekly time frames. It could take another quarter for this to work its way out. I am expecting a possible trend reversal around q2

Quoting sinner-
I am just messing man, to me the analysis calls don't mean anything from a trading perspective (my bullish one or your bearish one). I'll be shorting and buying with the trend as always (with a few scalps along the way I'm sure). As long as there IS a trend I'm happy. Have you looked at E/J recently? We have been playing the same weekly range since April. Try catching a swing on that baby (although still holding shorts from 135)

But I think the bears missed their chance last year. Now the expectation that a top is in will probably play out as...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #176,847
  • Edited 9:34am Jan 2, 2010 9:22am | Edited 9:34am
This is a Bomb on Fox News:

FOLLOW THE MONEY :: Obama's Marxism SHELL GAME Scam To FINANCIALLY COLLAPSE America !!

Inserted Video


This scam will blow dollar away in 2010..

Must listen.

Frieddy and Fenny asking 400 billion each on top of everything else, compare that to Greece.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #176,848
  • Jan 2, 2010 9:44am Jan 2, 2010 9:44am
Quoting Jasper
The main trend on EU is up, and has been so since Nov 3rd 2008. I consider we are in a retrace presently, which has got every possibility of turning back up at 1.4303, (I could of course be very wrong). I have arrived at 1.4303 whilst topping down from Weekly, Daily, 3hourly, and 1 hourly Charts.
I am long at 1.4432, with a S/L at 1.4260, but I would close the position should Price get below 1.4274.

I would also take on another long above 1.4303, should I see the opportunity!!

is the main trend on EU UP ? are you 100% sure about that ?

look at daily draw tl ... as of dec 7th that trend that you are talking about was broken , trend has changed , also do NOT ignore the double dojis we had on the daily on effort to rise over xmas break in a down trend on daily = weakness. Do not give pips away cause you are to stubborn to adnit to yoursekf when trend has changed,

trend is all about what time frame you are trading on

trend 4 hour channel 1.4440 to 1.4300 ish
trend on daily is DOWN
trend on weekly is DOWN ...lower high 2009 than 2006
trend on Monthly is UP , has been since 1974 , but even if we go to parity it is still up


think the potential down move on eu is due to how bad it is over there ? orr is the new down cycle that is forming just a natural rythem of the euro since 1974 ? where each up cycle has been met with a down cycle.

also go back and look at monthly. charts . History always repeats itself in charting. Find one other time when a 900 pip monthyl candle ( top revlersal ) changed direction on the next month. I did this last weekend and could not find one , the min down move was 2000 pip , taking us to 1.3000 , the max 6000 pip

now if your trade is just based on 4 hour , then the long at 1.4300 with stop 1.4260 is great r/r as we are in a channel 1.4300 ish to 1.4400.

hope this post gives you some good info ....

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #176,849
  • Jan 2, 2010 9:59am Jan 2, 2010 9:59am
90% a day trader but i will use long term cycles to build wealth in pension plan , I have inverse etf for euro right now (euo) and a dollar bull etf .

also you are going on and on and on about how bad usd is . I agree us is a mess .. BUT dx clearly has an engulfing monthly. Till the bottom of that at 74.5 is broken as far as I am concerned dx is going into a buy cycle , weather that be 87 , 120 test only the charts will tell us.

Euro ( see last post) could be going in a 6000 pip sell cycle , that is due to NOTHING else than the natrual flow of things since the inception of the euro. NOthing moves in a staight line in trading.

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Quoting SkyzerFX
That's why I don't understand what's your point, cause we were talking

pretty much about long term view and you are daily pip scalper. $Dullah goes to

120? Oh yeah.. please.. It will tank as soon as tomorrow.. Let's watch.

The only thing, which could somewhat move Dollar up is Deflation and Market

crash in any other event Dollar going down.

In terms of charts I rely only on short term view. Cause just few days ago all charts was point to

Cable drop to 1.57 and then 1.53 and pair just screw all the tech stuff and move up 250 pips.

If you going...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #176,850
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:04am Jan 2, 2010 10:04am
Ok, all depends how you look at the charts..

Here is the chart saved earlier, Picture doesn't change much as

we close above 1.43.. Daily TF, Price must drop below 1.40 to break this

And that's an uptrend for me:

You have to close your ears and not listen the facts that USA almost bankrupt and can go

down any day now. Dollar will collapse rater than go to any of your targets, cause it's a logical nonsense.
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Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #176,851
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:09am Jan 2, 2010 10:09am
as said before mule that shits fast dont shit long. just a thought: china is a young market. many travel from rural areas to emerging cities for work. i dont know an exact number nor do i think even china knows. china has an emerging middle class and elite class. none of this really matters to the point.

my point is % wise no matter what you look at the rule of 72 applies. simple math... its simple for somthing to double its value. you take percentage of growth and divide it into 72. for instance at 10% simple interest per year savings account to double, it will take 7.2 years. whatever the number is divide it into 72...

so using this formula china is doing great almost as good as some of the minning towns in california in 1849. but even as millions were made at some point a 5$ egg became to expencive. we all hear all the stuff comming out of china some true some not. well baltic dry shipping is down last 7 weeks. and still no where near where it was before bust. . if you recall we just had christmas. i would of thought november would of been a busy time for shippers (china). sure there is a lot of commerce in china with many making money. but is it a dubia X a thousand? the rule of 72 is brought up to show for things in china to continue % has to increase at the same rate. well its doing great according to china's reports. lots of gov. stimulis, but with baltic down will gov. have to put more in? they did stop stimulis once already but had to bring it back over the summer.

so much crap and such little time and lack of typing skills to say it. i brought up dubia to piss off the guys who were saying "wtf does dubia have to do with china or the rule of 72?!!" well both are simuliar to the "build it they will come" strategy. both are fine when you got buyers, but recently (2008 bust) with the airport full of new beamers parked in dubia. it kinda shows whats behind the layers. will china's aiports end up the same? probably not. they actually build stuff... and companies are making billions there right? well yes some are...and will in the future.. butt... notice there is always an ass or butt, either a whole or a hole one. .. many of china's new elite dont make nothing. they are used car salemen "that say build it they will come" and they certainly are comming. are these guys just too good? did china go to far too fast? is it a bubble or not. is all the money being made in realestate and lacking in exports as baltic dry suggest? maybe.

it remains to be seen. but if the usd does get stronger will china adjust its peg to usd? remember they did lossen it some before shit hit fan. but later devalued again. dont think airports in china cant fill up with gm products.. they have and 8 month supply of commodities stored.. they could just stop buying and let prices drop and buy new cheaper commodities with higher valued usd like they did last time. remember they stopped buying at 1.6 eu last time. was it 1.5 this time? i surely dont know.. but if it was commodities will move quick. does china have a conspiracy? who knows? but if i was them it would be a mirror image of this. they can have the best of all worlds. buy cheap commodities and turn off the spiket to drop the price. at the same time their usd holdings gain value. it works fine.. until u.s. consumer stops buying. just a cycle. and china will let usd go up till commodity stockpiles get low..

but there is a wild card.. every action has a reaction. and this time we are lower to the ground. if china realestate pops whats next? as in rule of 72 can china continue to spend the trillions more to keep the ball rolling. will it further devalue its money?

japan is done stick a fork in her. e-z remains to be seen..
s. koreans/ect. are taking their future and ez each day. e-z is gonna lose it manufacturing base like US did. unless they change the rules. both japan and e-z have to re-invent themselves. it may already be too late.


time will tell
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...yPoRxW0&pos=10
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #176,852
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:19am Jan 2, 2010 10:19am
Quoting gatorinla

time will tell
Dollar bulls are blind.. It's not going to take much time till, this funky

USD Debt bubble burst. You'll see huge Dump check Nov 2008

from 1.24 to 1.48 in 1 or 2 days just with 1 single news. Wake up next

morning and see Dullah at 1.60. That's coming.

Mean while I'm going to trade this on daily basis without taking any positions.

Taking short here is riskier, than EVER before.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #176,853
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:24am Jan 2, 2010 10:24am
Dr. Geppynius,

I truly would love to keep it simple. My goal is not only a profitable trading operation but a life manageable one.

So far, for me, VSA feels awkward. I have no confidence in what I am seeing yet. So far it is similar to looking at moving averages. Looking at history and if pointed out to me, I can see how one might interpret the bar and the volume to have concluded something to take an action.

I can see the logic in the process and accept it is like learning a foreign language. I see others talking and laughing at a joke, while I smile wishing I got it!


Thanks for any help,
BR



Quoting Dr.Geppynius
no worries regarding impact of new players.
even currently, with prime tools, you are only able to track about 80% of the real traded volume. in general we here do only use tick volume for trading which shows the activity in a specified period, more volume ,more orders, more activity. so tick volume=number of price changes and not the order amount.
what you could do besides monitoring the regular charts is using volume based bars where you define e.g. volumes of 5000 for one bar to form, so you see the exact progress price made on this amount of...
  • #176,854
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:28am Jan 2, 2010 10:28am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Dollar bulls are blind.. It's not going to take much time till, this funky

USD Debt bubble burst. You'll see huge Dump check Nov 2008

from 1.24 to 1.48 in 1 or 2 days just with 1 single news. Wake up next

morning and see Dullah at 1.60. That's coming.

Mean while I'm going to trade this on daily basis without taking any positions.

Taking short here is riskier, than EVER before.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...yPoRxW0&pos=10 i hear ya... just depending on whos pulling the strings..and why... rates are inching up..europeans and the chinese are spending billions buying u.s. properties.. many chinese companies buying are linked to goverment official families. now what do you think they know?

what does goldmen insiders know.. they have been selling for 10 weeks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #176,855
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:38am Jan 2, 2010 10:38am
Quoting malcolmb14
is the main trend on EU UP ? are you 100% sure about that ?

look at daily draw tl ... as of dec 7th that trend that you are talking about was broken , trend has changed , also do NOT ignore the double dojis we had on the daily on effort to rise over xmas break in a down trend on daily = weakness. Do not give pips away cause you are to stubborn to adnit to yoursekf when trend has changed,

trend is all about what time frame you are trading on

trend 4 hour channel 1.4440 to 1.4300 ish
trend on daily is DOWN
trend on weekly is DOWN ...lower...
I fully understand, but I am looking at it from the Weekly Chart, and as I said earlier, I may very well be wrong. We all have to go with our own analysis, and stick to it, up until we realise it is not working, or stay with it if it is working.
I am fully convinced that EU is in an uptrend, though. Whether, my thoughts that Price will go back up from around 1.4303, is right or not, has yet to be determined.
I will get back to you, late on Monday, with either a smile or a reddish face.

Good Luck
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #176,856
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:42am Jan 2, 2010 10:42am
Consider that you have a man that can and does control news and how the news is presented to hundreds of millions of people, through hundreds of media organizations via newspapers, TV stations, Radio stations, Production companies, cable and satellite.

Think he just maybe has the ability to manipulate what people think? Maybe for his own gain?

Personally that whole group of companies scares me more than any terrorist group.

BR

Quoting SkyzerFX
This is a Bomb on Fox News:

FOLLOW THE MONEY :: Obama's Marxism SHELL GAME Scam To FINANCIALLY COLLAPSE America !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oYn2BeblBk

This scam will blow dollar away in 2010..

Must listen.

Frieddy and Fenny asking 400 billion each on top of everything else, compare that to Greece.
  • #176,857
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:13am Jan 2, 2010 11:13am
*L* in history people do tend to give addicts more weight in what is said over others. the masses are like that. some start wars. some are tv evangelist.. some on radio some on tv and radio. some just on the net. the commoun part is most are addicts with evangelist traits.. history is full of them..maybe i can smoke crack or take some oxi and be one when i grow up. people love to follow a losser when he cleans up.. the little boy who said "the king has no clothes" in todays world would say "aint you the crackhead giving a bj in the alley last week?"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #176,858
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:14am Jan 2, 2010 11:14am
While there may not have been options to have dealt with this mess any other way, the hope is that tax revenue will allow a rapid payoff of the debt. If you listen to the richest people on the planet, they have given everyone high marks for dealing with the crisis.

Assuming that does not work, the questions are....

If the debt bubble does burst, who get hit by the fallout?
Who else has a debt issue and how does it compare to the US problem?
If Our bubble bursts will those of other nations burst simultaneously?
If they do burst at the same time, which country is the one to bet on?

China is where it is today, in large part because of the consumption of the US.

It is like being the supplier of beef to McDonald's. The average receivable has aged to 90 days, but huge checks come in everyday. If you cut them off, you close 700 of your meat plants and fire 95% of your workforce. Most likely go out of business because bankruptcy won't turn you around. So you try to live with it while making noise. In reality you work together because you need one another. I suggest over the long haul, the US is more important to China than Chiba is to the US. We are the customer, they are the suppler. The customer in the end, is always right.

The planet is so interconnected in so many ways, that cause and affect is not easy to understand without looking under all the layers. We the average population of the planet will never know all the layers.

Finally, this is a balance between the risks I mentioned above and the expectation of earning interest.

The rise the dollar points to interest rates going up while the US being less risky than once thought or less risky that the nations that have major currencies or currency involvement in the EUR.

Take care,
BR

Quoting SkyzerFX
Dollar bulls are blind.. It's not going to take much time till, this funky

USD Debt bubble burst. You'll see huge Dump check Nov 2008

from 1.24 to 1.48 in 1 or 2 days just with 1 single news. Wake up next

morning and see Dullah at 1.60. That's coming.

Mean while I'm going to trade this on daily basis without taking any positions.

Taking short here is riskier, than EVER before.
  • #176,859
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:14am Jan 2, 2010 11:14am
Sky you can make any tl you like on a chart that is for sure .... the longer trend are the more reliable ones...

you are super bear usd so even if we get a new low you could change your tl to 1.4000 and say we are still in an up trend channel on the daily , hell even if we dropped to 1.3000 you could change your ltl and still say we arei n an up trend

what is better and more reliable ? a trend on the weekly that has lasted 10 months with three defined points or a tl that has yet to be tested >

put it this way using your ltl 1.4220 breaks , 1.4000 target then if that does not hold 1.3500 ... get the picture and something so simple some miss it. EU on higher time frames moves in 500 pip blocks .. pretty easy when you know what you are looking for.

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Quoting SkyzerFX
Ok, all depends how you look at the charts..

Here is the chart saved earlier, Picture doesn't change much as

we close above 1.43.. Daily TF, Price must drop below 1.40 to break this

And that's an uptrend for me:

You have to close your ears and not listen the facts that USA almost bankrupt and can go

down any day now. Dollar will collapse rater than go to any of your targets, cause it's a logical nonsense.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #176,860
  • Jan 2, 2010 11:18am Jan 2, 2010 11:18am
Dollar bulls ? the thing is what dollar bulls .. everyone and their Granny is still bear usd .

eurusd has 2 components .. usd and euro. What if usd remains constant does not go up and does not go down , yet euro zone falls apart ?

eu goes to parity without usd getting any stronger....

also waht do we know of EW principles. wave 1 and 2 will form when everyone is still bearishg at bottoms and bullish at tops.

Now go look at weekly dx ....you will see wave 2 started 74.5

as stated for this wave to be voided then 74.50 has to be taken out.



Quoting SkyzerFX
Dollar bulls are blind.. It's not going to take much time till, this funky

USD Debt bubble burst. You'll see huge Dump check Nov 2008

from 1.24 to 1.48 in 1 or 2 days just with 1 single news. Wake up next

morning and see Dullah at 1.60. That's coming.

Mean while I'm going to trade this on daily basis without taking any positions.

Taking short here is riskier, than EVER before.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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