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  • #176,821
  • Jan 1, 2010 4:47pm Jan 1, 2010 4:47pm
poocher thx i got to attachments . when you click on it nothing happens .anyway i ll keep trying to see if i could get anyway with this
  • #176,822
  • Jan 1, 2010 6:31pm Jan 1, 2010 6:31pm
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=16702

The rally in the dollar and the problems for other currencies prove what we have been saying and that is all currencies will continue to fall vs. gold. The impetus for the dollar rally originates as usual with the government and is added to by the disarray in the economies worldwide, particularly in Europe. One of the things central banks have never learned is that financial engineering only works for a short duration, after that the problem worsens. Even the world’s strongest currencies, the Swiss, Canadian, Aussie and Norwegian, are only holding their own versus gold. The reason why is almost all central banks have done the same thing and that is create money and credit recklessly at the behest of the US government. The US and British financial systems are insolvent. The euro is under severe pressure, because of problems in Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy, and every other central bank is jockeying for position via competitive devaluation. The public may not notice it but the situation is really chaotic. As you can see, the US is never allowed a level playing field, but that is part of what comes with being the international reserve currency. Banks in Britain, Europe and the US continue to take losses, sometimes-severe losses. There is no intermediation going on with the dollar. Its rally is founded on manipulation. We suspect in the future we will have an interesting phenomenon and that is a fall in the dollar, pound and the euro, as gold moves higher as the only viable alternative. Con't..... Full article on link at top.
  • #176,823
  • Jan 1, 2010 6:47pm Jan 1, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting tamster
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=16702

The rally in the dollar and the problems for other currencies prove what we have been saying and that is all currencies will continue to fall vs. gold. The impetus for the dollar rally originates as usual with the government and is added to by the disarray in the economies worldwide, particularly in Europe. One of the things central banks have never learned is that financial engineering only works for a short duration, after that the problem worsens. Even the world’s strongest...
i agree with this but i think that gold will continue fall down to 1060-1040 and then it will goooooooo to break it's previous high value @1220.....
  • #176,824
  • Edited Jan 2, 2010 6:54pm Jan 1, 2010 6:54pm | Edited Jan 2, 2010 6:54pm
Off topic but as most people fly from time to time important to be aware:

Terahertz wavelength radio waves can destroy DNA, and 'airport full body scanners' are akin to THz 'cannons'.

Quote
Alexandrov and co have created a model to investigate how THz fields interact with double-stranded DNA and what they’ve found is remarkable. They say that although the forces generated are tiny, resonant effects allow THz waves to unzip double-stranded DNA, creating bubbles in the double strand that could significantly interfere with processes such as gene expression and DNA replication. That’s a jaw dropping conclusion.
...
But a new generation of cameras are set to appear that not only record terahertz waves but also bombard us with them. And if our exposure is set to increase, the question that urgently needs answering is what level of terahertz exposure is safe.
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24331/

http://www.prisonplanet.com/full-bod...radiation.html
  • #176,825
  • Jan 1, 2010 8:01pm Jan 1, 2010 8:01pm
er...read this crap and it is sure to lose you money

what he is saying is true and has been true since dj 6470. Do you really think things have changed in a mere 9 months ? banks changed the mark to market rule to make things look better than they are

the fundamentals reasons for the crisis are still there , in fact even worse now. Yet try and trade against the chart as you try to think what the state of the economy really is and you would have lost a nice tidy sum , and while all market manipulators would be making a nice fat profit you would be moving into your cardboard box on the street,

Trading is about perception and market actions , not what you seeo n the news or what is written in articles.

If this same author wrote ' to remain looking youthful turn your oven on to 400 deg c and pace your head in it every day for 30 min " would you ?

everything we need to know is in the charts.... EVRERYTHING

here is dx .... for the last 13 years .... think all that volume last 3 months is designed for a $4 in the dx ? think it is pros deciding to sell heavy on support ? it is the highest since the inception of the dx . that tells me something major is coming down the pipeline EURO, either that or at the end of 2009 the hft sachsbots were told to mess with thr dx.

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Quoting tamster
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=16702

The rally in the dollar and the problems for other currencies prove what we have been saying and that is all currencies will continue to fall vs. gold. The impetus for the dollar rally originates as usual with the government and is added to by the disarray in the economies worldwide, particularly in Europe. One of the things central banks have never learned is that financial engineering only works for a short duration, after that the problem worsens. Even the world’s strongest...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #176,826
  • Jan 1, 2010 9:07pm Jan 1, 2010 9:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
er...read this crap and it is sure to lose you money

what he is saying is true and has been true since dj 6470. Do you really think things have changed in a mere 9 months ? banks changed the mark to market rule to make things look better than they are

the fundamentals reasons for the crisis are still there , in fact even worse now. Yet try and trade against the chart as you try to think what the state of the economy really is and you would have lost a nice tidy sum , and while all market manipulators would be making a nice fat profit you would...
You've gotta admit malcomb, you've called this "high volume bottom" in the USDX at least 10 times during 2009!
  • #176,827
  • Jan 1, 2010 9:41pm Jan 1, 2010 9:41pm
Choose your direction for 2010.
Attached Images
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #176,828
  • Jan 1, 2010 9:49pm Jan 1, 2010 9:49pm
Quoting Artcritique
Any thoughts on Beaver Buck for next week?
I'm sorry I've been absent this week, but I had a very dear friend pass away from health complications due to cancer. It's been a little troubling to say the least.

My charts show USD down (against the CAD). The Canadian business reports say down too. Trend is somewhat down. No sure it would be wise to bet against all of this, but I'm not giving any advice, nor do I always listen to my charts. I'm currently not in any trades.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #176,829
  • Jan 1, 2010 11:30pm Jan 1, 2010 11:30pm
I am of the opinion, that extreme price moves provide both opportunity and profiting periods. These extremes could be measured by the day, the week, the year, the decade or longer.

In the past, it was suggested that everything except real estate went through such cycles. Real Estate was the one investment that had one direction, up. That, in the past few years proved to be universally wrong.

That one fact alone, is the final ingredient which released the crisis.

People could no longer count on their home being the nest egg that had been counted on for decades.

Did anyone substantially benefit from the extreme high price of real estate? At some point in price, will anyone have a great buying opportunity with the collapse of real estate prices? You bet. They did and they will.

Just some months ago, oil was about 140US. talk was 200, some said even 500 per barrel was understandable. $10.00 per gallon gas in the US. Fear hit. Everyone was talking about buying oil contracts. Huge futures contracts for years forward were sold at those high levels and then price collapsed. Many were rewarded with extreme wealth. A well controlled manipulation of facts for the financial gain of a few, leaving many holding paper that is underwater.

Gold just like everything else will go up and down. It always has.
I randomly picked 5 years periods for prices.

Gold at $35 in 1970
$850 in 80
$290 in 85
$430 in 90
$380 in 95
$250 in 00
$550 in 05
$1000 in 10

Gold will reach a peak and tank. Maybe that peak has been reached already.

In todays world, properly placed news is international headlines in minutes.

I can promise you this with every blood cell in my body. There is NO guarantee, that price will follow what SHOULD happen with news or information. You can have hyper inflation and gold CAN drop to $1.00US.
You can have Coke come out with $100.00 per share earnings and it can trade down to 1 cent. I said CAN. I didn't say it was likely. However you need to consider this when trading or investing or you will be broke. WILL BE BROKE. Did I say you WILL BE BROKE? I did not say when you will be broke, but you will. Remember - homes were never going to loose there value. No one looked and POW.

The world circles with people trying to make money. Some will stop at nothing to do it. Some do not care about what happens to an entire society or the planet. They have access to huge amounts of capital and can orchestrate devious plans because they are in the position to do so.

For myself I am trying to rely on the information that I can only hope is trustworthy. The ticks that come through, with date, time, price and volume.

Of the 2 possibilities below, I will go with number 2.

1. I am long EUR/USD because it should rise, it has to rise, come on already rise! - because the news for the dollar was terrible.

2. I am long EUR/USD because the price is rising.

It is my opinion that you are wasting your brain cells trying to guess what the distant future holds. I can prove this to you in 24hrs. Tell me what the price will be the first minute of every hour, beginning with market open for 24 hours. List it before the market begins trading. If you can't get that right, your not going to get the next 24 days right, the next 24 weeks or years right.

Think about it. For someone to be able to predict something down the road, it would mean that all the thousands of events on an international basis would need to take place in only one way, without varying at all. That the cause and effect is known now. Nope. I say prediction is pure bull unless you have the power to make it happen and control the result.

In a generalized way I knew we were going to have a technology and real estate bust. I did not know when, but I knew prices were out of control and were going to crash. So maybe generalized facts will be helpful. Maybe not. If anyone placed bets on Dubai collapsing. They lost. What should have happened did not.

At this time I use information as a guide, not an absolute. Meaning... The dollar is stronger than other currencies. OK, so I keep an eye out for evidence to continue to support that information. I also look for information to show me I am wrong.

I want to be sccessful..... I don't wanna be right!

Focus on understanding on what IS HAPPENING NOW. IT IS more important than yesterday, or tomorrow. BE IN THE PRESENT.

Have a great trading year,
BR
  • #176,830
  • Jan 1, 2010 11:32pm Jan 1, 2010 11:32pm
Sorry for your loss.
I understand.
BR

Quoting Duce
I'm sorry I've been absent this week, but I had a very dear friend pass away from health complications due to cancer. It's been a little troubling to say the least.

My charts show USD down (against the CAD). The Canadian business reports say down too. Trend is somewhat down. No sure it would be wise to bet against all of this, but I'm not giving any advice, nor do I always listen to my charts. I'm currently not in any trades.
  • #176,831
  • Jan 2, 2010 12:37am Jan 2, 2010 12:37am
Specially this one!

[quote=Big1red9; I want to be sccessful..... I don't wanna be right!

BR[/quote]

The points you mention about market timing and the reactons of the market are also specially important if one is relying on fundamentals. Causes have effects 'eventually'. But, it is sort of like waiting for chart gaps to fill.. You cannot nessesarily predict when.

This is specially true of major events which are not predicted. The major market players will attemp to reverse the market reaction in order to reposition themselves. The opposit is true of situations whose causes are will known. The ones that have a 'roadmap' are all played out, long before the event happens. That is why small traders often get burnt so bad when they get overextended to trade a predictable "news event". Remember, very few of us are actually important enough to get access to worthwhile news in a timely manner.
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #176,832
  • Jan 2, 2010 1:07am Jan 2, 2010 1:07am
Quoting sinner-
You've gotta admit malcomb, you've called this "high volume bottom" in the USDX at least 10 times during 2009!

and watch what is now going to happen thru 2010. Volume like that does not accumulate for a move that is going to last 2 weeks. I mean look at gu top 2008 it took 7 months to form before a drop for, 2.000 to 1.3670. Large monthly market cycles do not happen overnight. That take time to form and time to work.

I am short both eu and gu fairly close to the tops. and am going pretty good intraday trading also
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #176,833
  • Jan 2, 2010 1:29am Jan 2, 2010 1:29am
Happy New Year Malcolm,

On volume. I have a few questions.

As more people are drawn to trade in forex or a broker expands its operation, the volume is impacted.

Could that throw off analysis in a meaningful way? If yes, a solution could be the monitoring the average number of ticks or the average trade size(Total volume / #of ticks for the TF) OR is it that the comparison of volumes is so close to gather from a calendar perspective it isn't important?

I had a thought about analyzing volume and wondered if it is either part of VSA or something you have looked into. Do you think there is any value in knowing how many ticks or what volume is required to move X pips for the different phases?

Thank you!
BR

Quoting malcolmb14
and watch what is now going to happen thru 2010. Volume like that does not accumulate for a move that is going to last 2 weeks. I mean look at gu top 2008 it took 7 months to form before a drop for, 2.000 to 1.3670. Large monthly market cycles do not happen overnight. That take time to form and time to work.

I am short both eu and gu fairly close to the tops. and am going pretty good intraday trading also
  • #176,834
  • Jan 2, 2010 3:09am Jan 2, 2010 3:09am
no worries regarding impact of new players.
even currently, with prime tools, you are only able to track about 80% of the real traded volume. in general we here do only use tick volume for trading which shows the activity in a specified period, more volume ,more orders, more activity. so tick volume=number of price changes and not the order amount.
what you could do besides monitoring the regular charts is using volume based bars where you define e.g. volumes of 5000 for one bar to form, so you see the exact progress price made on this amount of volumeticks. tickcharts with volume histogram will show the same amount of volume on every bar since the price ticks = volume.
but you do not need all these tools, the vsa principles pop op on a regular chart every day, in every period and you only need price bars, volume histogram and experience and not anything to make it more complicated.


Quoting Big1red9
Happy New Year Malcolm,

On volume. I have a few questions.

As more people are drawn to trade in forex or a broker expands its operation, the volume is impacted.

Could that throw off analysis in a meaningful way? If yes, a solution could be the monitoring the average number of ticks or the average trade size(Total volume / #of ticks for the TF) OR is it that the comparison of volumes is so close to gather from a calendar perspective it isn't important?

I had a thought about analyzing volume and wondered if it is either part of VSA or something...
  • #176,835
  • Jan 2, 2010 3:22am Jan 2, 2010 3:22am
Quoting gatorinla
you want believe it.. green to me are reality fibs. red are predictive.. its hard to see on this chart but the turn at 6236 is the last level of a pc level (red chart). sad but true i watched it happen.. and almost entered at 6230....and even set a pending entry at 6236 but only after it left.. we usualy over shoot some so my original entry was 6263 ( the published fib).. normally i go to the bigger chart for overshoot number... i screwed up the green and red were the same level... so i should of entered at 6236... oh well.. i got in manually 6208.....
Thanks for the chart. Will bang those levels on a chart and see how it goes. Got in at 1.6228 and nicked some. Had noted that 1.6230 was a stop level for some posters and it had done a range of 180 pips for the day so considered it to be relatively safe. Already out though. Have many painful past memories of G/U that I have to get over so will trade it with some caution and need to familiarise myself with it's levels. A/J is my favourite currency at the moment. It's a nice mover, uses less margin than E/U and G/U and the rollover is about the best you can get (I buy dips and very seldom go short on this pair although there have been some great shorting opportunities).

Happy New Year
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #176,836
  • Jan 2, 2010 4:36am Jan 2, 2010 4:36am
17:30 USD
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
17:30 USD
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
tomorrow
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
and it is redddd . what gonna happent ?
  • #176,837
  • Jan 2, 2010 6:47am Jan 2, 2010 6:47am
Quoting malcolmb14
and watch what is now going to happen thru 2010. Volume like that does not accumulate for a move that is going to last 2 weeks. I mean look at gu top 2008 it took 7 months to form before a drop for, 2.000 to 1.3670. Large monthly market cycles do not happen overnight. That take time to form and time to work.

I am short both eu and gu fairly close to the tops. and am going pretty good intraday trading also
I am just messing man, to me the analysis calls don't mean anything from a trading perspective (my bullish one or your bearish one). I'll be shorting and buying with the trend as always (with a few scalps along the way I'm sure). As long as there IS a trend I'm happy. Have you looked at E/J recently? We have been playing the same weekly range since April. Try catching a swing on that baby (although still holding shorts from 135)

But I think the bears missed their chance last year. Now the expectation that a top is in will probably play out as a short squeeze into the new year. Equities, commodities and oil are simply not playing along and there won't be a massive drop (or rally) until all the ducks are lined up. Even the Nikkei is holding 10,000+ on the weekly!

I have given up watching the USDX, just keeping an eye on US bond/bill yields and volume.
  • #176,838
  • Jan 2, 2010 7:10am Jan 2, 2010 7:10am
Huge sideways ahead perhaps ?

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #176,839
  • Edited 10:11am Jan 2, 2010 7:49am | Edited 10:11am
In my opinion the EURUSD will go short. Look at the resistance level on a daily chart, and also on the mothly chart is a huge DBHLC formed.

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  • #176,840
  • Jan 2, 2010 7:50am Jan 2, 2010 7:50am
Quoting sinner-
I am just messing man, to me the analysis calls don't mean anything from a trading perspective (my bullish one or your bearish one). I'll be shorting and buying with the trend as always (with a few scalps along the way I'm sure). As long as there IS a trend I'm happy. Have you looked at E/J recently? We have been playing the same weekly range since April. Try catching a swing on that baby (although still holding shorts from 135)

But I think the bears missed their chance last year. Now the expectation that a top is in will probably play out...
The main trend on EU is up, and has been so since Nov 3rd 2008. I consider we are in a retrace presently, which has got every possibility of turning back up at 1.4303, (I could of course be very wrong). I have arrived at 1.4303 whilst topping down from Weekly, Daily, 3hourly, and 1 hourly Charts.
I am long at 1.4432, with a S/L at 1.4260, but I would close the position should Price get below 1.4274.

I would also take on another long above 1.4303, should I see the opportunity!!
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
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