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  • #8,821
  • Edited 12:36pm Jan 1, 2010 12:35pm | Edited 12:36pm
Hi Stewrigh,

Thought I would put in my views on the chart you posted. I agree with your conclusion of: More PA info is needed.
I am curious...The last candle ... was that closed without a regular full day of trading? Obviously have the LL LH giving you information. Definitely indecision of buyers/sellers on the doji.

Something I look at: Look at the range of price from swing lows to the trend line. Measure several of these moves going back in the past. Are the ranges of these moves similar? For example on this chart, maybe 225 pts? Now compare that number to the range of the last move up ? Just one more bit of info .

Let us know what happens on Mon/Tues.
Attached Image
  • #8,822
  • Edited 12:41pm Jan 1, 2010 12:40pm | Edited 12:41pm
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
I am currently looking with interest at the weekly and daily of AUDCAD.

Weekly: IB, possible forming of swing low (bullish)
Daily: No PA yet. After H&S pattern, sharp break to the downside, followed by a retrace. (looking bearish overall)

So there is a conflict between BOSS and WORKER which needs to be resolved.

Would be looking for confirmation:

a) bottom building on the daily and break above 0.95 (IB on weekly)
OR
b) continuation of newly established downtrend with a break below 0.92

What do you guys think?


p.s. sorry for the crappy charts. can't access my broker at the moment...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD daily.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD weekly.png Size: 29 KB
  • #8,823
  • Jan 1, 2010 1:03pm Jan 1, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Spinner - euryen is showing a Monthly BUEB, not outside bar. Slight difference. One could also argue the case for Inside Bar too.
I would prob wait for a break of that range (126.68 to 138.00 level) and then trade from that. I would imagine we'd get a false break first too. I'm waiting for a good strong close above 134.00 to get me interested! After that last peak above the weekly 20ma we had a LH. I have drawn a TL from the top in Jul 08 thru that last high in Oct 09. Last week's price is sitting under it.
If usdyen keep powering up like this...

Yeah, thanks for that. always confuse the two, even after all this time. Your observation will help me remember (i hope).

Spinner

spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,824
  • Edited 2:29pm Jan 1, 2010 1:44pm | Edited 2:29pm
Quoting Lou
Hi Stewrigh,

Thought I would put in my views on the chart you posted. I agree with your conclusion of: More PA info is needed.
I am curious...The last candle ... was that closed without a regular full day of trading? Obviously have the LL LH giving you information. Definitely indecision of buyers/sellers on the doji.

Something I look at: Look at the range of price from swing lows to the trend line. Measure several of these moves going back in the past. Are the ranges of these moves similar? For example on this chart, maybe 225 pts? Now compare...
The other thing that is attractive with this is the R/R ratio - my stop would be around 5600 so risk is abt 200, but the reward could be huge - I'll just let it run if I'm right and maybe add to on the way.

BTW the markets closed at lunchtime so ur right it was a short day.
  • #8,825
  • Jan 1, 2010 3:43pm Jan 1, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting Sid
I am currently looking with interest at the weekly and daily of AUDCAD.

Weekly: IB, possible forming of swing low (bullish)
Daily: No PA yet. After H&S pattern, sharp break to the downside, followed by a retrace. (looking bearish overall)

So there is a conflict between BOSS and WORKER which needs to be resolved.

Would be looking for confirmation:

a) bottom building on the daily and break above 0.95 (IB on weekly)
OR
b) continuation of newly established downtrend with a break below 0.92

What do you guys think?


p.s. sorry for...
Hi Sid

In my opinion

Be careful with inside bars. They can easily lead to triangular consolidation, and become continuation patterns. This is could be one of the reasons why we prefer to trade the engulfing and outside bars, as well as the shooting stars and hammers. They show who is winning. To me inside bars show indecision and although it is a sign of trend weakness it is not a reversal signal. So that is why the candlestick is less reliable than the others mentioned.
  • #8,826
  • Jan 1, 2010 5:51pm Jan 1, 2010 5:51pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Well Strat, you have answered every feedback post, and dealt with every query....
Thanks Christopher but the song was “Hats off to Larry” by Del Shannon 1961 – remember?

Well Strat, you have answered every feedback post, and dealt with every query. Your proposals for revision of the thread address all the major problems but entail an enormous amount of work.

It is a HUGE amount of work as I have to work on Training Modules for each member level plus PR stuff etc., etc., which may mean my not being as visible on the thread but I will try my very best.

Excellent, Excellent, Excellent. I am really looking forward to being a part of it.

I hope you all will although I know some will fall by the wayside.



Just to jog your memory:
Thanks but not necessary she is forever embedded in my memory!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,827
  • Jan 1, 2010 5:58pm Jan 1, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting Sid
Strat, you wrote: [color=Blue]"I have a HUGE problem with this. Other than students of this thread who are encouraged to post their trades, I despise after the fact trades posted by anyone else anywhere.

I just see this as ego servicing and trying to show you are better than anyone else.

It would also paint me as a “super trader” and that I am not for I am only technically subservient to the Market. When the Market moves against the technicals I am lost and become as random and chaotic as the market.

Another problem I have with this is another...
But here is a question, do the trades you post have to be real trades? You could start by saying "here is a chart, if I had traded this using basic PASR I would have..." "and that's why..."

Now this I don’t have a problem with as even if I traded it, I can water it down to just basic PASR.

If others find this beneficial I will gladly do it and instead of my initiating it, students should offer up pairs/situations for this.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,828
  • Jan 1, 2010 6:02pm Jan 1, 2010 6:02pm
Quoting Lou
Hi Stewrigh,...
Wafer thin markets skew the markets in every which way.

Wait until the big boys get back into town and then let's take another look.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,829
  • Jan 1, 2010 6:05pm Jan 1, 2010 6:05pm
Quoting Sid
I am currently looking with interest at the weekly and daily of AUDCAD.

Weekly: IB, possible forming of swing low (bullish)
Daily: No PA yet. After H&S pattern, sharp break to the downside, followed by a retrace. (looking bearish overall)

So there is a conflict between BOSS and WORKER which needs to be resolved.

Would be looking for confirmation:

a) bottom building on the daily and break above 0.95 (IB on weekly)
OR
b) continuation of newly established downtrend with a break below 0.92

What do you guys think?


p.s. sorry for the crappy charts....
Keep looking and WAITING (PATIENCE)

Wait for volume and liquidity to return - in other words, the BIG BOYS!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,830
  • Jan 1, 2010 6:08pm Jan 1, 2010 6:08pm
Quoting Donadoney
Hi Sid

In my opinion

Be careful with inside bars. They can easily lead to triangular consolidation, and become continuation patterns. This is could be one of the reasons why we prefer to trade the engulfing and outside bars, as well as the shooting stars and hammers. They show who is winning. To me inside bars show indecision and although it is a sign of trend weakness it is not a reversal signal. So that is why the candlestick is less reliable than the others mentioned.
I did a post a week or so ago on IBs, everyone should check that out.

IBs can be a fantastic set up sometimes while at others, they will drain your account dry.

Leave them until you UNDERSTAND and MASTER basic PASR.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,831
  • Edited 8:12pm Jan 1, 2010 7:45pm | Edited 8:12pm
Quoting strat
I have a HUGE problem with this. Other than students of this thread who are encouraged to post their trades, I despise after the fact trades posted by anyone else anywhere. ...
I meant to comment on this earlier. Strat, I'm going to disagree with you on how your posted trades are perceived.

Yes, typically when others post after the fact trades they are bragging only about the ones that went right. However, the nature of your posts almost require you to post after the fact trades. These are the examples we are looking for.

Furthermore, I doubt any regular readers of this thread would suspect you of attempting to elevate yourself...wielding a large boot for errant arses, yes, but not self promotion.

Quoting strat
But here is a question, do the trades you post have to be real trades? You could start by saying "here is a chart, if I had traded this using basic PASR I would have..." "and that's why..."

Now this I don’t have a problem with as even if I traded it, I can water it down to just basic PASR.

If others find this beneficial I will gladly do it and instead of my initiating it, students should offer up pairs/situations for this.
IMO your advanced trades postings help put PASR into perspective for me. Eliminating the advanced posts may play into your dividing the thread into levels on the path but don't allow modesty to lead you into detracting from your own work.

As always, the thread is yours and these are just my musings on the subject. I've no complaints as to how things are proceeding and however you decide to develop it will be of benefit, I'm certain.
-m
  • #8,832
  • Jan 1, 2010 11:45pm Jan 1, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting Alexandra
Hmmm----half a cup perhaps! I value the static levels more than the 20....but don't tell Strat.

You are right to call attention to the weekly - bull trap or double bottom....hmmmm...be nimble and disassociated, and you will make money on that one.

Well - full cup then....Cheers!
Thanks Alexandra - it is always a big help to get a reality check and a nudge in the right direction; a fantastic way to learn. No real dollars for me on this one, however I will be watching from the sidelines with great interest.

Great eggnog - thanks.

Cheers,
Mike
  • #8,833
  • Jan 2, 2010 1:07am Jan 2, 2010 1:07am
Quoting strat
I value the static levels more than the 20....but don't tell Strat.

No secret, my dear. I have said many times the priority on SR is ALWAYS static SR first followed by, in no particular order, DSRI, TLs, Fibs, MAs etc.

However, when we get confluence with any or all of them...............get yer wellies out!
Speaking of confluence, that beautiful-looking USDJPY monthly chart gets a nice test next week against the sharp monthly TL and the corresponding static level. Passengers should buckle their seat belts next week.
  • #8,834
  • Jan 2, 2010 4:43am Jan 2, 2010 4:43am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Hi Donadoney,

thanks for the reminder on an IB often being a sign of indecision rather than a clear trading opportunity! My plan right now is to sit back and watch it unfold.

Strat,

Yeah, I will stay out and practice patience. I am not trading at the moment and wont until after next week. In the meantime I shall re-read your post on IBs. Thank you!
  • #8,835
  • Jan 2, 2010 7:37am Jan 2, 2010 7:37am
Hi All,

I would like to congratulate all of us for making it to this new glorious year. Thanks to Strat for his open heart and thanks to everyone that has contributed to the growth and success of this threas one way or the other.

I pray that all our hope and aspirations come true and that we fulfill our dreams this new year.

HAPPY NEW YEAR AND I WISH YOU ALL A PIPTORIOUS, PIPTASTIC, AND PIPTACULAR YEAR.

Femi
  • #8,836
  • Jan 2, 2010 8:04am Jan 2, 2010 8:04am
Happy New Year Everyone!

Hey Strat,

I believe both of these suggestions have been mentioned however, for those interested:

I love the idea of testing our trading knowledge through examples (past or present)... "if I were to trade this chart what would I do?" Maybe even a trick or dodgy candle thrown in to help us with good and "bond" entries.

I really think that showing examples of how "close" is "close enough" when considering over/undershoot of our PASR would be fantastic! For instance a strong signal 50-100 pips away from a Monthly SR line is great in some cases but bogus in others depending on strength of close, strength of the bars leading up to it, whether its ranging, broken previous trendlines etc.

I come from a theoretical physics background so "easy" is often super complicated to me as I"m expecting there to be more too it. Judging by many other posts I may not be alone in this regard.

This thread is awesome! Thank you for your teachings thus far. I believe I will actually be able to grow my business this year. Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #8,837
  • Jan 2, 2010 8:44am Jan 2, 2010 8:44am
A true story (with a little embellishment, censorship and dilution)

As we all get older things start to slow down and not work as well as they used to. “It’s the wheels falling off”, my mate tells me. Well one of my problems is certain things are getting weak and have lost their strength and power with no more thrills or excitement. My mates say I need to get a younger one and then everything will be like I was a teenager again. “But I’ve been with her since I was 16”, I said. “That’s why you need to get a younger one – gets the blood pumping again”, another mate said. “OK, you find me one and I’ll give her a try”, I said jokingly. Well 2 days later, my mates called and said it’s all fixed for Saturday! “Bloody hell, now I’m in trouble”, I thought although I did notice a stir in the old loin cloth. “We’ll take you for lunch first as you will need all your strength”, they said. “Oh, and don’t put grease on your hair – leave the Brylcream in the jar, and don’t wear that jacket with the velvet collar, or those drain pipe trousers or those beetlecrushers with the big fancy buckles – in fact dress as if you lived in the 21st Century” my best mate said. “Cheeky bar steward”, I thought and him older than me!

Well Saturday came around and down the Irish Bar we went. They insisted I eat meat as I will need the protein to “do my stuff” so we scoffed Shepherd’s Pie or was it Cottage Pie? I can’t remember whether it was a sheep or cow that we ate. This was suitably washed down with 2 pints of the black stuff. “Only 2 pints mind”, one mate said. “You need enough to put some lead in your pencil but not too much that you can’t perform.” Visions of a tilt in my kilt sprang to mind.

They drove me to dark alleys and places I had never seen, or heard of before and pulled behind a tall old building. My best mate ran to the back door of the building and said something to the guy answering the door and then motioned for the rest of us to come. Escorted by the rest of me mates, I entered the building where I was met with loud music and the sound of jollyment. Their contact inside the building ushered me to a small, but well lit room, and me mates gave me the thumbs up sign and wished me good luck. Sweat was already beginning to form on my face when the guy brought her in. “Bloody Nora”, I trembled. She was a young, stunningly gorgeous sunburnt blonde (we are in Southern California) with a round voluptuous body and the first thing I noticed was her pair of (censored). They too were a golden blonde colour and I knew I had to get my hands on them. Her slim long neck and sweeping curves were crying out for me. Sensing that I was frothing at the mouth and trembling with passion, the guy left and closed the door behind him. Suddenly I was struck with a fear of “Will everything work OK”, and with the door now closed I put my hands on them. Soft yet firm they were and as I moved further down her bronzed body I saw her black bits and I could tell I was turning her on. Then it happened – it all came back to me just like I was 16 again – the pulsating, the throbbing, the screaming, the thrill, the excitement, the pure adrenalin rush. It was magic, absolutely bloody magic, electric in fact. I gave her a real good f, f, f, f, f, fu, fu, fu, fu, fun time and a bloody good thrashing! I didn’t want it to end but I knew I couldn’t last forever and in one final thrust and burst of excitement it was all over. I managed to last about 15 minutes but I was covered in sweat and well and truly knackered.

Then something strange happened. Normally after such events, I look over at her and think “That was good but now you can go”, but this time, even though I was well and truly spent, I still wanted her. Just as I was running my hands down her body to touch her black bits again, the guy came back in and told me he could arrange for her to spend the rest of her life with me. “I’ve died and gone to heaven”, I thought, “How often does an old rocker get to spend the rest of his life with such a beautiful young thing?” “I’m immortal, I can walk on water” I said. Then I remembered this was real but then fear came rushing in. “ I don’t think I can do this everyday for 15 minutes even though I want to”, I thought, “I may never see my 3rd 21st Birthday! I made a feeble excuse that with the current financial climate, I couldn’t do it but he was persistent and made the arrangement even more attractive. Then WHAM, BANG, LAM, TUTTI FRUTTI it hit me slap between the eyes! GUILT! My guilty conscience reminded me of HER back at home. She will be 50 next February and I’ve been with her since I was 16. “How could I do what I did and think what I’m thinking” the little man in my head said. I thought of her old, flat hard body and remembered her pressing against my belt buckle and started to compare her with the young blonde who had just brought life back to the old fella. “I love her”, I said, “And the young one too”, “What am I to do?”, I thought.

Just then me mates came back and when they saw the young beautiful blonde covered in my sweat, a smile from ear to ear appeared on each of their faces. “Had a good time then, did you?” one mate said. “Aye lad I did”, I said in my best half Scottish accent. “Well get her in the car, pay the man and let’s break the news to the old hag” another mate said. “But I can’t do it”, I said “She’s been with me since I was 16 and I really, really love that old flat hard body” “ I just knew it”, me best mate said, “All that loud rock and roll music has done your ‘ead in!” “If you don’t do it now, you will never, ever do it and I may never speak to you again! He shouted.

“So be it”, I replied and with that I picked up the Gibson Les Paul Custom Shop model 2008 guitar and gave it back to the guy in the Guitar Centre. I told him that I preferred my 1959 flat, hard bodied Fender Stratocaster which I have had since I was 16. “You will never find another blonde sun burnt finish with the best pair of pick ups, slim neck and the black bits on the edging at this price again” he said. “I know”, I said, “But the only fault with my Strat, due to it’s old age is that the pick ups are weak with no strength or power.

“I can fix that”, he said, “I can let you have 3 Stevie Ray Vaughan humbucker pick ups with the fattest sound ever” but then seeing my sour face said, “Or lacer sensor pick ups as used by Clapton and Knopfler”. “Who?”, I said. “And then you will have to learn Pentatonic, Lydian, Mixolydian, Aeolian, Locrian, Dorian, Phrygian scales, hammer-ons, pull-offs, finger tapping and get yourself a Marshall 500 Watt Amp!”, he continued.

“And wear make up and black mascara and eat bats – no thanks”, I said, “I’ll continue with her just as she is, after all, she was last insured at $35,000 and if I mess with her she could end up worthless!”

Now where are my Buddy Holly glasses, Roy Orbison sunglasses and Chuck Berry duck walk!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,838
  • Jan 2, 2010 9:06am Jan 2, 2010 9:06am
A+
  • #8,839
  • Edited 11:37am Jan 2, 2010 9:37am | Edited 11:37am
Quote
due to it’s old age (.........) the pick ups are weak with no strength or power.
Sorry to hear that Strat.

But you are wise to keep the old Fender, the amount of work, expense and servicing required to keep the new model functioning would be considerable. Fortunately sluggish pickups can be compensated for by skillful finger work, and helped along with a bit of TLC and some WD40. The latter even comes in packet form now. If you are short I'll send you some!

P.S. A jazz pedant writes: the only modes you need really are the Pentatonic (most 'folk derived music), the Dorian (Miles Davis - most of Kind of Blue) and the Phrygian - if you flatten the penultimate note on the last one you get the Spanish Phrygian which is essentially Duke Ellington's 'Caravan'.
  • #8,840
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:23am Jan 2, 2010 10:23am
Quoting strat

Now where are my Buddy Holly glasses, Roy Orbison sunglasses and Chuck Berry duck walk!
...and an excellent start to the new year.
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