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  • #175,761
  • Dec 28, 2009 5:31am Dec 28, 2009 5:31am
The key will be who raises first... but remember, Euro rates are still higher than US rates and my view is that even if the US hikes first, Europe would be quick to catch up and be more aggressive. This is assuming that US hikes atall.

Right now, market has priced in a 91% hike for Sept. 2010, this is up from 84% last week. This clearly can be seen by Euro price action last week.

Given the upmove in long end interest rates (The 5yrs and the 10 yr yeilds have moved much higher than the 1yr and the 2 yr), people are expecting either higher inflation or higher growth. However, what happens if neither happens? Back in history, Japan had a very very similar story, and there was a time when their yeild curve was similar to the current US yield curve (in terms of expectations). But then, neither did they have growth nor did they have inflation.

However, all this is just positioning. Customer and Soverign flows have been drying up on account of year end. Starting Jan flows will start playing a bigger role in price discovery....

Quoting redsheriff
That are good questions! Specially the last two ones...
I remember that was an issue as well in many other forums...
Yes - true - that may be one of the reasons - why market wants to drive that pair down since beginning of december - because not only a few are believing that there might be a change in that rate issues sooner than many american forex participitiants are expecting...

Anyway - it looks to me still as if a bit toppish at this area...
  • #175,762
  • Dec 28, 2009 5:40am Dec 28, 2009 5:40am
Quoting Larseg
up
up
up
down
nothing
down

This will not happen 100% but is what people believe "happens".
And yes sometimes it does.... The reaction correlations work best when only oil is the one going up or one of the other you asked about... when there is more stuff happening it is getting even harder to look at it like this...

I personally have no problem making money with no indicators at all... All I look at is the candlesticks on the actual cross I am trading...
..and just to make things more complicated... here is the RISK APPETITE! which came out in the last year or so. I.e. when USD is supposed to go up, it goes down. just because. nice eh?
  • #175,763
  • Dec 28, 2009 6:44am Dec 28, 2009 6:44am
... Long at 1.4405, looking for a run upto 1.4427, and then a reversal to the short side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.4405 entry.png Size: 158 KB
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #175,764
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:03am Dec 28, 2009 7:03am
Looking for an entry ,either a bull or not .
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #175,765
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:08am Dec 28, 2009 7:08am
Quoting Jasper
... Long at 1.4405, looking for a run upto 1.4427, and then a reversal to the short side.
I have taken half the trade off at 1.4421, and I have a limit sell order at 1.4425 to take another quarter off. Then we'll see what happens there, should it get that far!
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #175,766
  • Edited 7:31am Dec 28, 2009 7:17am | Edited 7:31am
Quoting waynkon
Hello,

I have a few questions about the eur/usd pair (correlations and more) :

If oil is trading higher what will happen to the pair?

If gold is trading higher what will happen to the pair?

If European stocks are trading higher what will happen to the pair?

If US stocks are trading higher what will happen to the pair?

What if both euro and US economy are doing great?

What will happen to the pair if the US increase rates?


Thank you for your replies.
1) UP
2) UP
3) UP
4) UP
5) UP
6) UP (Feds will not increase rates with double digits unemployment and 100%
DEBT to GDP ratio.)

Also there is lot more chances that EUROPE will move on rates First.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #175,767
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:22am Dec 28, 2009 7:22am
Quoting Jasper
I have taken half the trade off at 1.4421, and I have a limit sell order at 1.4425 to take another quarter off. Then we'll see what happens there, should it get that far!
price didnt even go that high
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #175,768
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:25am Dec 28, 2009 7:25am
just got out of my shorts
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #175,769
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:33am Dec 28, 2009 7:33am
great descusion here last few day and no arguments for longest time ever a new record surly!

i have a question to add why is eurusd corolated to gold do europeans have more gold per capa or somthing?
  • #175,770
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:34am Dec 28, 2009 7:34am
Out of your shorts? Mate, put something on.
  • #175,771
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:37am Dec 28, 2009 7:37am
Quoting upsandwns
Out of your shorts? Mate, put something on.
and not your web-cam either !
hang on to your bread......unless you want toast
  • #175,772
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:40am Dec 28, 2009 7:40am
Quoting SkyzerFX
1) UP
2) UP
3) UP
4) UP
5) UP
6) UP (Feds will not increase rates with double digits unemployment and 100%
DEBT to GDP ratio.)

Also there is lot more chances that EUROPE will move on rates First.
Perhaps you are right , I did not able to take one but my just wanted to test if any entry using 200ma took one long!
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #175,773
  • Edited 8:05am Dec 28, 2009 7:45am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting paulw6182
great descusion here last few day and no arguments for longest time ever a new record surly!

i have a question to add why is eurusd corolated to gold do europeans have more gold per capa or somthing?
Actually everyone expect very quite, low range, low volume trading, that's

why not much is going on either on Short or Long

side. Personally I think we could continue to trade here 1.40-1.45 before

something major comes up. That be good for short term trading either way.

As for GOLD not USA nor Europe have much left. Officially they do.

There was a news story 2 month ago when GOLD traders was asking

for delivery of Physical GOLD from London Bank, in exchange they were

offered either to take lower Grade Gold bars or close their contracts with 20%

premium. I'm sure many of those Futures contracts and all kinds of

Funds like GLD/DGP and others, baking up their shares by hot

air and little bit of GOLD. You can google it for that scandal.

P.S When you have a time you can read it:

"A prime suspect is the gold basis calculated using COMEX futures prices, or the forward gold price of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Further suspects are: certain gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) such as GLD and their weekly updated bar lists; certain central banks such as the Bag Lady of Threadneedle Street (nickname of the Bank of England) that has rushed to the rescue of her agents, the bullion banks, trying to bail them out by offering substandard (22 carat) gold in settlement of contracts at the verge of being defaulted."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14317.html
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #175,774
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:55am Dec 28, 2009 7:55am
Quoting CzechTrade
price didnt even go that high
Sorry 1.4412 and not (1.4421).
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #175,775
  • Dec 28, 2009 7:59am Dec 28, 2009 7:59am
Eurusd

Sell : 1,4400
Sl : 1,4420
Tp : 1,4340
  • #175,776
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:02am Dec 28, 2009 8:02am
Quoting paulw6182
great descusion here last few day and no arguments for longest time ever a new record surly!

i have a question to add why is eurusd corolated to gold do europeans have more gold per capa or somthing?
During the 2008 crisis, all financial trading correlated to the dollar and US Treasuries; basically, if the trade didn't favor the dollar, it went down. EUR/USD and gold went down. All central banks cuts rates to provide liquidity to their economies.

In 2009, when the crisis waned, all the trades that went down started going up, since the financial world wasn't going to implode. This is why virtually every currency and commodity has gone up dramatically, including EUR/USD and gold. There is also global worries about the continuing weak dollar policies of the US.

In 2010, the picture is not so certain as every central bank that cut their rates to 0 begins to raise them. EUR/USD might not go up as fast due to carry-traders worried about being caught in a rate differential squeeze by Bernanke.
  • #175,777
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:03am Dec 28, 2009 8:03am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Actually everyone expect very quite, low range, low volume trading, that's

why not much is going on either on Short or Long

side. Personally I think we could continue to trade here 1.40-1.45 before

something major comes up. That be good for short term trading either way.

As for GOLD not USA nor Europe have much left. Officially they do.

There was a news story 2 month ago when GOLD traders was asking

for delivery of Physical GOLD from London Bank, in exchange there where

offer either take lower Grade Gold bars or close their contracts...
im afraid to buy under 1.4418 and wont buy it over that double top and dont see reason to sell today, i think today is a diffcult day.
their is definatly a hole lot of corruption around. only aternitive is carry gold around and get muged. i guess these people who cooked the books have just proven to themselfs they are are nasty unlikable people. nothing we can do about it.
  • #175,778
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:03am Dec 28, 2009 8:03am
Quoting Jasper
Sorry 1.4412 and not (1.4421).
With Image.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: abc.png Size: 121 KB
Good Trading. (keep it simple).
  • #175,779
  • Edited 9:04am Dec 28, 2009 8:18am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting Michael112
During the 2008 crisis, all financial trading correlated to the dollar and US Treasuries; basically, if the trade didn't favor the dollar, it went down. EUR/USD and gold went down. All central banks cuts rates to provide liquidity to their economies.

In 2009, when the crisis waned, all the trades that went down started going up, since the financial world wasn't going to implode. This is why virtually every currency and commodity has gone up dramatically, including EUR/USD and gold. There is also global worries about the continuing weak dollar...
thats part of the problem with the controled capitalist society vs freemarket. you tax the rich then the write them selfs checks from your tresoury then you dont know whats going on meanwhile your sucking up to your boss agree wtf he say that a middle class. except in true freemarket you cant say f** or u get bitch slaped by lordalmighty law of the land.
  • #175,780
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:22am Dec 28, 2009 8:22am
Quoting upsandwns
Out of your shorts? Mate, put something on.
it was just a few pips scalp
Pation is the Holy Grail
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