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  • #175,641
  • Dec 26, 2009 10:36pm Dec 26, 2009 10:36pm
Quoting Spsantos
Isn't trading full of clichés!?
My final verdict on currency trading - For a variety of reasons, only principles of gambling work best in this market. In fact this is the only place where they work at their best
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #175,642
  • Dec 26, 2009 11:19pm Dec 26, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14
This is in response to Skyzers rude response to some other postings in here.

I am trying to throw down alot of ideas here , so please do not worry about grammar , spelling or typos. Just try and grasp the ideas.

You are likely going to think i am a complete nut ... but....

sorry but I am going to say SUCKER !!!!! I bet you bought oil at 146 and gold at 1200 also !!! ( gold was ONLY driven on hype to 1200 in the news to drive usd lower for massive buyying at discount for many countries.. I have been short gold 1210 with target 900 or lower)...
Lots of good information ,well said malcolmb.
Thanks, fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #175,643
  • Edited 11:36pm Dec 26, 2009 11:21pm | Edited 11:36pm
Quoting malcolmb14
This is in response to Skyzers rude response to some other postings in here.

I am trying to throw down alot of ideas here , so please do not worry about grammar , spelling or typos. Just try and grasp the ideas.

You are likely going to think i am a complete nut ... but....

sorry but I am going to say SUCKER !!!!! I bet you bought oil at 146 and gold at 1200 also !!! ( gold was ONLY driven on hype to 1200 in the news to drive usd lower for massive buyying at discount for many countries.. I have been short gold 1210 with target 900 or lower)...
you and i are on the same page.. we got some end of the year bond sale also. will there be less bidders because holidays? feds not bidding.. so with less bidders will it drive up interest sooner then later. im a store owner and all i can say is all my wholesalers are going up. inflation???? ill also bet my left one employment may be flat or maybe will role on the positive side this or next month.. cat laid off... baltic dry shipping is down.. this affects the commodity pairs and china more negative then usa. so if usd dont go up i will be looking for bargens.

this chart has made me a lot of money. it hasnt lied yet..4138 is the last for this chart without extending its cycle. it and it brothers tell a story. and have since october when it was first posted.. purple lines are just an extention... i will have a better point of reference once 4138 is passed. (buy american setiment prevails) beamers and shamwows to expencive. wendys .99 cent meals up to 1.39 now.. i have the charts i just have to see what one is the dominent one.

silly ass chart

oh and this is a 4 hr and does have a step north.. its kinda funny where the step stopped.. the low is kinda funny too but i have to admit. its 2 pips lower the then 50% number of 4219 is.. i have a low of 4217... anyway.. dont sweat it 4138 is even lower.. hey and so is 1.04xx
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #175,644
  • Dec 27, 2009 12:07am Dec 27, 2009 12:07am
Bearissh monday yeah?
  • #175,645
  • Dec 27, 2009 12:26am Dec 27, 2009 12:26am
Quoting swingtrader
Bearissh monday yeah?
He may be hibernating on Monday!
  • #175,646
  • Dec 27, 2009 1:07am Dec 27, 2009 1:07am
Just prediction how the future pa may look like .using only fib.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #175,647
  • Dec 27, 2009 7:46am Dec 27, 2009 7:46am
Quoting malcolmb14
sorry but I am going to say SUCKER !!!!! I bet you bought oil at 146 and gold at 1200 also !!! ( gold was ONLY driven on hype to 1200 in the news to drive usd lower for massive buyying at discount for many countries.. I have been short gold 1210 with target 900 or lower)
And you saying my post was rude? I don't even mention your nick there.

Good luck with your GOLD short, I won't even talk about EURUSD, since

you shorting GOLD. We'll see soon who's "Sucker", won't take too long.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #175,648
  • Dec 27, 2009 7:55am Dec 27, 2009 7:55am
Quoting fontu
Just prediction how the future pa may look like .using only fib.
fontu


Fine...


It is now 6 - 8 hours prior to first opening rates. Depends on if Wellington is with us or not. I don't know at the moment...


I have tried to do such a thing as you did as well - with a Daily Chart and a 60min. Chart grafical view. Let's see...


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2009-12-24_18h13_ EURUSD _ Daily _ ZigZag Method Outlook.PNG (26.8 KB)


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2009-12-24_18h13_ EURUSD _ 060min _ ZigZag Method Outlook.PNG (31.3 KB)


Technical estimation is sometimes a bit similar to weather forecast. Mostly a bit more clear and precise in a smaller timeframe (up to 1 - 3 Days) than in a weekly or even monthly prospect...



FPP
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-12-24_18h13_ EURUSD _ 060min _ ZigZag Method Outlook.PNG Size: 31 KB
  • #175,649
  • Dec 27, 2009 8:13am Dec 27, 2009 8:13am
GOLD:

"Long-term Underpinned

Regardless of the new development with EUR/USD, gold’s long-term prospect remains underpinned mainly by the following factors:

• Strong continuing central bank demand - Central banks have now become net buyers of gold in the last half of 2009. A Chinese official recently was quoted saying China should increase gold reserve to 6,000 tons in 3~5 years, and 10,000 tons in 8~10 years from the current 1,054 tons (as of April this year.) Russia also has bulked up on its gold reserve by 20.1% since the beginning of this year to 612.74 metric tons, valued at almost $23 billion.

• Rising inflation fear - Inflation is a by-product of reflationary monetary policies, low interest rates, and expanding government debt in virtually all of the major industrial nations.

Dollar in the midst of a multi-year decline - The Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would keep interest rates low and money cheap for an extended period makes it almost inevitable that the Dollar will continue to weaken.

• Growing investment demand - Gold investment demand has gone up by 25% to 220 tons this year. Diversified stock funds have been buying gold bullion, piling into gold ETFs and stock of gold-mining companies as insurance against a worrisome monetary situation, possible inflation situation, and partly to enhance their returns.

• Supply constraint - World gold mine production will likely continue to decline for at least another five years.
"
GOLD EURO USD and more:

http://www.emerginvest.com/Plexus/12...into_2010.html
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  • #175,650
  • Dec 27, 2009 8:18am Dec 27, 2009 8:18am
I haven't even looked at a currency chart in over a week, but doesn't look like anything has changed. Hope everyone has had a great Christmas and we can all make tons of money in the New Year
  • #175,651
  • Dec 27, 2009 9:25am Dec 27, 2009 9:25am
Quoting SkyzerFX
GOLD:

"Long-term Underpinned

Regardless of the new development with EUR/USD, gold’s long-term prospect remains underpinned mainly by the following factors:

• Strong continuing central bank demand - Central banks have now become net buyers of gold in the last half of 2009. A Chinese official recently was quoted saying China should increase gold reserve to 6,000 tons in 3~5 years, and 10,000 tons in 8~10 years from the current 1,054 tons (as of April this year.) Russia also has bulked up on its gold reserve by 20.1% since the beginning of this...
everyone is brain washed about interest rates from news sources. that are paid by the ones trying to take your money. the fed can control them sure. but so can outside forces like inflation and employment. currencys are on a see-saw. with a pivot between them. in the natural order its suppy vs. demand driven. the fed told you they were not giving money to other foriegn reserve banks in the middle of the night deals anymore. its over, now the usd and euro can find a natural equaliberium. and it will be bigger moves. and we do usaully overshoot. so then euro shoots up again... but its not time yet...

the light is on and the roaches scatter. next time dow is at 14k it will be real.. not built on deflated bullshit dollars in a shell game. hopefully. but we still have to pay the bill... but our bill is slightly cheaper then the others... that have lost market share making the bill cost more..like japan and europe. wake up before the day ends its 11.45 pm... its first light in s. korea ........ china?? they have bills to pay also.... they backed out on buying the gold india bought..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #175,652
  • Dec 27, 2009 9:30am Dec 27, 2009 9:30am
Quoting SkyzerFX
And you saying my post was rude? I don't even mention your nick there.

Good luck with your GOLD short, I won't even talk about EURUSD, since

you shorting GOLD. We'll see soon who's "Sucker", won't take too long.

yes all 3 of your posts were condescending and rude.

lets chat again in 3 months .... and see who is right and who is wrong.

as for Gold do not worry I have short since 1210 .

also look at this monthly ... how bullish is that inside bar ? this is just very simple candle patterns nothing more.

you seem to be perma bull euro and gold , perma bear dollar. One thing i have learnt in my 7 years of trading is one has to be flexable. If the charts turn on a weekly then yes I may well be agrreing with you by end of Jan.

Lets think about this ....

gold rippage 900 to 1200 ...

US stock markets collapsing and flight to safety in that time ....NO
Inflation worries and inflation being out of control ..... NO
manipulation of usd lower using gold (gold rises usd drops) so pros could load up USD longs.... LIKELY

ask yourself why gold move 30 % for no fundamental reason and yet silver chart stood still ...

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  • #175,653
  • Dec 27, 2009 9:42am Dec 27, 2009 9:42am
hope you do not mind me commenting ..

Russia has 600 tonnes of gold ...wow that is a blip compared to US holdings , so they bought 120 tonnes this year.

US has 8000 , closest to them is Germany at 3,000 tonnes

As mentioned before all US has to do is drop 2000 to 3000 tons gold on the market and usd is nicely supported.

And what better way for China to buy some of US bond at discount than to say they are buying 10,000 tons of gold in the next 5 years. I think the next crisis will come out of China. They have lent 1 trillion dollars to support the stock market. Imagine the carnage if for some reason the Chinese economy fails....their banking system and lending practices are completely out of control. ' you live in a box on the street ... here have a 100 k loan '

Now here is another idea I want to throw out there.

There has been talk of International Monetary currency being changed to a Euro based currency. But first they have to stabilize the euro region and weed out the disparity. That will be done over the course of the next few years , causing major instability in the Euro.

If they switched to euro based currency now, all those countries that bought usd reserves when USD was valued so much higher would take trillions of dollars hit , plus they would be buying Euro at a very high price.

so what better way to ease this transition ( if it is going to happen at all) than to super cycle usd , do a massive short squeeze , drive it to an all time high or close to and Euro to sub parity...

Just food for thought .

PS i do not disagree with you in the long term USD is toast ... but not before all global economies are able to get out of the US bonds they have at a decent profit.....

and in regards to interest rate and your comments on US economy go look at UK or any Eurozone countries . It is not a case of is the USD currency crap , more a question of which one is crappier USD , EURO or GBP.

Oh and what use is 2000 gold if no one can buy it.




What better way then to
Quoting SkyzerFX
GOLD:

"Long-term Underpinned

Regardless of the new development with EUR/USD, gold’s long-term prospect remains underpinned mainly by the following factors:

• Strong continuing central bank demand - Central banks have now become net buyers of gold in the last half of 2009. A Chinese official recently was quoted saying China should increase gold reserve to 6,000 tons in 3~5 years, and 10,000 tons in 8~10 years from the current 1,054 tons (as of April this year.) Russia also has bulked up on its gold reserve by 20.1% since the beginning...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #175,654
  • Dec 27, 2009 9:43am Dec 27, 2009 9:43am
is it just me or is there a weekly pin bar on euro with some good confluence?
  • #175,655
  • Dec 27, 2009 9:55am Dec 27, 2009 9:55am
Quoting boxingislife
is it just me or is there a weekly pin bar on euro with some good confluence?
i wouldn't overeestimate this "pin", since it was the first pin after a heavy downwave in form of three crows- on the weekly- which is a very strong reversal sign after a strong advance. it was inevitable that we bounced off of the 4200 area, since it also aligns with the most important moving average- the daily 200 and is a reasonable spot for profittaking. i do not see higher potential than 4500 for this pop.
  • #175,656
  • Dec 27, 2009 10:25am Dec 27, 2009 10:25am
weekly chart we can see there is alot of s/r in the 1.4400 area all way down to 1.4000

If or once we get to 1.4000 seems pretty plain sailing to 1.3500 and that drop should be quick

now for a reversal on the weekly I will be looking for a weeks close higher than the prior week or for a morning star formation to be validated ( in this case a weekly close higher than 1.4685

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  • #175,657
  • Dec 27, 2009 11:07am Dec 27, 2009 11:07am
Quoting malcolmb14
hope you do not mind me commenting ..

Russia has 600 tonnes of gold ...wow that is a blip compared to US holdings , so they bought 120 tonnes this year.

US has 8000 , closest to them is Germany at 3,000 tonnes
Dude, you obviously have no clue what are you talking about.

US Fort Knox last was audited after WORLD War II

"In the 1970's a very courageous gentleman named Edward Durrell claimed that
substantially all of the US Gold Reserve being stored at Ft. Knox was gone.
Only 1,000 tonnes or so of the 8,500 tonnes supposedly being stored there
remained. The rest had been secretly taken from Ft. Knox and shipped to
London in 1967 and early 1968 for sale by President Johnson in an ill-fated
attempt to keep the price of Gold at $35 per ounce."



"It may come as a shock to some, but the U.S. has very little so-called
"U.S. government" gold bullion in Fort Knox. A brave outspoken journalist,
Tom Valentine, in the 1970s, exposed as a fraud that there was
world-trade-quality gold at Fort Knox. All they have left are poor quality,
orangish-looking, melted down coin metal from the seizure in 1934, of gold
coins from America's common people. [The American aristocracy, warned in
advance, shipped THEIR gold out of the U.S.] The U.S. government gold is
gone. Why? Because it was shipped, under the supervision of a ply-able U.S.
General, to the private central octopus called the Bank of England, in 1968,
to stem a run on that bank which had somehow lost all their own gold."


US have no GOLD, they spend it all shorting, while protecting Ponzi Dollar from collapse.

So? Yes Russia, do have more Gold than USA.

And I also assume that Indian Central Bank full of Idiots too, paying

for 20 tonnes of Gold $1025 per oz just a couple of month ago.
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  • #175,658
  • Dec 27, 2009 11:16am Dec 27, 2009 11:16am
Quoting malcolmb14
weekly chart we can see there is alot of s/r in the 1.4400 area all way down to 1.4000

If or once we get to 1.4000 seems pretty plain sailing to 1.3500 and that drop should be quick

now for a reversal on the weekly I will be looking for a weeks close higher than the prior week or for a morning star formation to be validated ( in this case a weekly close higher than 1.4685

Attachment

Puhh - jawohl - yes - 1.4685 would represent the 50% Fibo-Level. I've got that uncertain feeling - that this could be a bit ambitious target within the next week as well. I hear someone from Tokyo Mitsubishi saying: "Don't expect an old man who fell out of the window from 5th floor to the ground to stand up immediatly and jump back again that high very soon..."





But of course - alles ist möglich im Forex - why not. At the moment it looks to me as if just only in a corrective consolitation action. And we have reached 23.8% Fibo-Level already with last printed high at 1.4435. Though a near term downtrendline has been violated a bit with that. But this could still be a 'false breakout'. Anyway - an interesting situation we are looking at. Excuse me my ugly school days ENGLISH...

By the way - I did not understand - what you mean with 'a lot of s/r' in 1.44 area. I'm not used to that abreviation...


Selling interest? Stop reverse? Please tell me!


So next step would be something around 38.2% Fibo-Level. Viel weiter mag ich jetzt kaum denken = that means I do not think much higher at the moment. As I do all day my calculations from day to day and I plan my trades within this time frame. Daily is the MASTERKEY for me...


Thank you for your post.
  • #175,659
  • Edited 12:00pm Dec 27, 2009 11:21am | Edited 12:00pm
Gold Reserves. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve
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  • #175,660
  • Dec 27, 2009 11:28am Dec 27, 2009 11:28am
Quoting redsheriff
Puhh - jawohl - yes - 1.4685 would represent the 50% Fibo-Level. I've got that uncertain feeling - that this could be a bit ambitious target within the next week as well. I hear someone from Tokyo Mitsubishi saying: "Don't expect an old man who fell out of the window from 5th floor to the ground to stand up immediatly and jump back again that high very soon..."





But of course - alles ist möglich im Forex - why not. At the moment it looks to me as if just only in a corrective consolitation action. And we have reached 23.8% Fibo-Level...

er meint support/ resistance- untersütztung/ widerstand damit
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