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Sonic R. System

  • #9,001
  • Dec 22, 2009 12:26pm Dec 22, 2009 12:26pm
Quoting traderathome
EJ: Price has dropped from area of whole number to area of half number (130.50 area). My thinking is that there will be a pull up (maybe to the 130.70s area) before much more of a drop. The current low seems to validate the previous low out of the Dragon as Ep South, as things stand.

Edit: Add second chart. If the last high (130.90) holds, then here is current FE, targets, etc.
The e/j is trying to come down. i don't know.
  • #9,002
  • Dec 22, 2009 1:12pm Dec 22, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting sed34
The e/j is trying to come down. i don't know.
Since yesterday this pair looks to have been in the PUMP & DUMP mode. There have been repeated sequences of quick rises followed by a longer periods of relatively flat trading. The rises (PUMP) created higher trading ranges. The longer period of trading in that new higher range was the DUMP. Just speculation, however. But today we have for now, the first wave pattern containing a nice low folllowed by a lower high. Maybe something will come of it, and maybe not.

Price creeped up another two pips so far. Not much of a change in the FE and the rest.
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  • #9,003
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:47pm Dec 22, 2009 4:47pm
thanks for the chart
  • #9,004
  • Dec 22, 2009 7:17pm Dec 22, 2009 7:17pm
Quoting traderathome
Since yesterday this pair looks to have been in the PUMP & DUMP mode. There have been repeated sequences of quick rises followed by a longer periods of relatively flat trading. The rises (PUMP) created higher trading ranges. The longer period of trading in that new higher range was the DUMP. Just speculation, however. But today we have for now, the first wave pattern containing a nice low folllowed by a lower high. Maybe something will come of it, and maybe not.

Price creeped up another two pips so far. Not much of a change in the FE and the rest....
its finally starting to come down. we'll see what happens in london.
  • #9,005
  • Edited 11:00pm Dec 22, 2009 10:33pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting traderathome
EJ: Price has dropped from area of whole number to area of half number (130.50 area). My thinking is that there will be a pull up (maybe to the 130.70s area) before much more of a drop. The current low seems to validate the previous low out of the Dragon as Ep South, as things stand.

Edit: Add second chart. If the last high (130.90) holds, then here is current FE, targets, etc.
More waves, new Ep, FE, etc......
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  • #9,006
  • Edited 11:36pm Dec 22, 2009 10:53pm | Edited 11:36pm
GU: I am reposting the current chart from my GU trade from Friday thru Monday; the chart that I redrew on Monday. I am doing so because, now on Wednestay, it is continuing to demonstrate how price can continue to "align" into the future with the levels of a well placed FE (Fibonacci Extension). This is a reason to use them over pivots. Pivots are valid only for the day, but FE levels have a much longer shelf life and tend to align better with historical key price levels.....which is really what we are after in the first place. The problem with historical key price levels is that you have to do a qualitative analysis of past price action in order to discern key levels. But then, which of those past key levels do you use? FE levels can take you directly to those past key levels that are most important for your trade, levels that will remain valid so long as the price remains within the price parameters of your trade, no matter how long that takes. Please do not misunderstand me. Being able to discern key levels off a price chart is a priortiy skill for anyone to be a good trader. And comparing FE levels to past areas of price consolidation or obvious discreet levels of S&R is always a good thing to do to check that you have a well placed FE. When you do, you can be sure that of all the past key price levels, the FE is pointing you to those that are most likely to be the most significant during your trade.
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  • #9,007
  • Edited Dec 23, 2009 12:30am Dec 22, 2009 11:45pm | Edited Dec 23, 2009 12:30am
EJ Trade Setup:

Price has been doing a lot of consolidation between the "L" and the "LH". I look at this fact as a good thing. The more the big players build their positions here, the better the next run should be.....a surprise run over the Christmas Holidays by the big players? For their profits, why not? It would be a good Christimas present to themselves! For now, it appears to be a setup for a short trade. But until we have a confirmed breakout, we can not know for sure which way it will eventually go. That is a good thing to remember. It could go up.

Edit: Added Daily chart. I drew FE from highest high, to first significant subsequent low, and swung "C" up to second most significant high. For months price has been ranging, but for the last few months it has been progressing down. And the CCI has been trending down. Both the Dragon's waves and the 89 ema are rolling over, too. It is not altogether unreasonable that there could be a break down out of this range. And if that is what the big players are planning, it is not altogether unreasonable they would "consolidate" for as long as possible, at as high a price as possible. That may be part of the reason this had a strong run up over the past several sessions. Are they all climbing aboard the Short Train? This is all shear speculation .......except for the chart.
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  • #9,008
  • Dec 23, 2009 12:10am Dec 23, 2009 12:10am
Quoting traderathome
EJ Trade Setup:

Price has been doing a lot of consolidation between the "L" and the "LH". I look at this fact as a good thing. The more the big players build their positions here, the better the next run should be.....a surprise run over the Christmas Holidays by the big players? For their profits, why not?...
do you follow fib. time predictions?
  • #9,009
  • Edited 12:39am Dec 23, 2009 12:16am | Edited 12:39am
Quoting sed34
do you follow fib. time predictions?
No. The best moves happen most frequently during the prime trading hours prescribed by SonicR. And some SonicR trades, as time nears the end of such a period, have to be labeled "....to be continued."
  • #9,010
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:04am Dec 23, 2009 6:04am
EJ Trade Setup:

Because price has moved in/thru/out the other side of the Dragon several times, the previous setup is invalid. In fact, price movement has triggered as a Long Trade setup, even though the "LH" has still not been taken out. I am keeping the last FE until that happens. I have not entered long. I see the longer term trend (previous posts, Daily chart, etc.) as down and am reluctant to trade this against that trend as I see it. It is why I did not go long several days ago, also.

Other pairs too, seem to be trading flat. It is the holidays and perhaps nothing much will happen across the board.

But, if there is a substantial move on this one, after already the several day move up, my bet is that it is a short......just a guess, not SonicR. To trade, I need SonicR. To trade this one, as things are currently, I will wait for SonicR short.
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  • #9,011
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:51am Dec 23, 2009 6:51am
Here is my take on the EJ. While price has rallied from what has been established as an important area of support, it has stalled, consolidating at the recent raly's highs at a prior minor resistance level. I would anticipate that the current consolidation is as likely, perhaps more likely, to break to the upside and reach the 131.6x level from December 11. Of course, the holidays may affect the trade the next few weeks. Technical analysis works for freely traded liquid markets, and its reliability is greatly diminished during periods of illiquidity such as we are in now through the New Year.
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  • #9,012
  • Dec 23, 2009 7:03am Dec 23, 2009 7:03am
guys...

been ages since i posted something in this thread. been following the thread without having much time to post a comment. anyway, would love to hear your comments on this trade.

have a buy and currently on positive side. only one TP and one SL.

is this a correct wave? i know, long term, it would be against the giant wave. but for small TF, is this the correct one? we'll see.
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  • #9,013
  • Dec 23, 2009 7:24am Dec 23, 2009 7:24am
Quoting ddaytrader
Here is my take on the EJ....
And no sooner did I post this than price rallied to the top of the recent consolidation where it found renewed selling. When I say that SonicR is about Support/Resistance, Highs and Lows, and wave analysis, I am not simply giving S/R "lip service."

I would also add to the post above that while 131.6x would be a target at which a pullback may be anticipated, I would still be looking for price ultimately to continue this rally back to the top of the larger sideways daily range(137.00 to 139.00.

It may not, but the weight of evidence currently favors the trading range. Until evidence accumulates to indicate otherwise (i.e. until there is evidence that the sideways trend has turned to up or down by breaking this 10 mnth old range) we should assume the range holds sway, and trade accordingly.
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  • #9,014
  • Dec 23, 2009 9:09am Dec 23, 2009 9:09am
u got your answer ......


Quoting sorsurus
guys...

been ages since i posted something in this thread. been following the thread without having much time to post a comment. anyway, would love to hear your comments on this trade.

have a buy and currently on positive side. only one TP and one SL.

is this a correct wave? i know, long term, it would be against the giant wave. but for small TF, is this the correct one? we'll see.
FxHome
  • #9,015
  • Dec 23, 2009 9:24am Dec 23, 2009 9:24am
thanx buddy..and thanx to the news as well. time to sleep. see you all next year. happy xmas.
  • #9,016
  • Dec 23, 2009 9:42am Dec 23, 2009 9:42am
Potential EJ Trade Short:

Price just made a quick run down on extremely high relative trading; the highest trading activity in a 15 minute period in 5 days. So this may turn out to be of some significance. Should the price drop further on good trading, the attached chart shows a new, but prelilminary, setup for a short trade.
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  • #9,017
  • Edited 11:37am Dec 23, 2009 11:27am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting traderathome
Potential EJ Trade Short:

Price just made a quick run down on extremely high relative trading; the highest trading activity in a 15 minute period in 5 days. So this may turn out to be of some significance. Should the price drop further on good trading, the attached chart shows a new, but prelilminary, setup for a short trade.
TAH, I am not sure why you keep looking for the short side on the EJ. Eventually, a short set up will occur, but until it does, should we not just go with what price is telling us, which is a series of higher highs and higher lows?

Quoting ddaytrader
Here is my take on the EJ... I would anticipate that the current consolidation is as likely, perhaps more likely, to break to the upside and reach the 131.6x level from December 11.
EJ has been repeating the same script for 10 months - decline to the mid-high 12x.xx's and rally to the mid-high 13x.xx's.

Anyway, the consolidation broke to the upside.
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  • #9,018
  • Edited 2:31pm Dec 23, 2009 2:10pm | Edited 2:31pm
EJ: I am going out on a limb here, but I am saying this is a GRAND PUMP TO DUMP! And when it drops, it is going to happen suddenly, it is going to drop fast, and it is going to drop FAR!

That high volume price drop (some scaredy cat big boy jumped the gun?) is just an example of stuff that has been going on for several days now, that has me believing this.

I would trade SonicR on this, but only SonicR short. The gun is loaded and there is no telling when they are going to pull the trigger.....and "longs" are going to be KAPUT!

Even though price keeps climbing at an ever steeper incline, volume is declining and CCI is dropping. This looks to be in the final stages of a Pump N' Dump!

You want to trade long? Go ahead. I don't care if they pump it 200 more pips. I do not want to risk being in it when they pull the rug out!!!!!

I'll catch the downside. It is coming. And it will be a lot safer trade. The higher they pump it now, the better that trade will be then.


Edit: "Anyway, the consolidation broke to the upside." - ddaytrader .........Yes, ddaytrader, and that "break" is the area in black on the attached chart.....price going higher at steep angle while the trading interest and the CCI are dropping, and on the heals of that quick mini high trade count selloff! So, is it a "breakout", or a Head Fake? Frankly, at this poiint with multiple days of running up, Pump 'n Dump or no Pump 'n Dump, I'd stay away as far as any long trade, no matter how good the setup looked.
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  • #9,019
  • Edited 3:21pm Dec 23, 2009 2:48pm | Edited 3:21pm
EJ Daily: How high will they pump "C"? I don't care, I am not long on this (geez, four days is ENOUGH ALREADY!). If this were a M15 chart, and if the price stops and reverses from the current area (the middle of the Dragon) and if I were a high risk trader.....HECK, I'd go short before the price had the chance to exit the Dragon! (Sort of an Advanced SonicR/ Re-entry!).

Heck, I might just do it anyway!


Edit: The the members of this thread - For several days I have been wary of the climb in price, and have so stated. My belief is the price was "rescued" from dropping past the previous low on this Day Chart. I believe the price will drop below it. I believe the Big Players will MAKE the price drop below it. I believe they were just not ready for it to happen YET, so they rescued the price and began a Pump To Dump. I believe as the price has been moving up, they have been selling. I believe when they are ready for the price to drop, they will make it drop. And I believe the drop will be a nice one. Now, if I am incorrect in this, since I have not recommended any trade that went bad, I have cost nobody anything. My beliefs expressed, my references to a Pump To Dump, none are a part of the SonicR Method. I posted potential SonicR Short setups, but not Long setups. Yes, there was a nice Long setup on Monday before I began to become wary, but I was preoccupied with my GU trade to pay it much attention. So, I missed the first phase of what has turned out to be a three step up run of almost 170 pips from the first SonicR Ep. And later when I started looking at it for re-entry, having already missed a third of the run, I just did not like what I was seeing by then. It is my perogative to NOT post SonicR setups, which I exercised by not posting long setups on EJ from that point. It has always been your perogative to trade SonicR as you see it.
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  • #9,020
  • Dec 23, 2009 3:14pm Dec 23, 2009 3:14pm
TAH: I am going out on a limb here, but I am saying this is a GRAND PUMP TO DUMP! And when it drops, it is going to happen suddenly, it is going to drop fast, and it is going to drop FAR!

DD: The organizing principle of "pump and dump" is not sound technical analysis. Of course the EJ will drop at some point, and it may drop far and fast. That's what the Yen pairs do. I guess if you keep saying it, then you can claim to have "called the top" whenever it is that it comes. In the mean time, I thought we were supposed to be teaching and discussing SonicR. SonicR is based upon support and resistance, highs and lows, and wave analysis.

TAH: That high volume price drop (some scaredy cat big boy jumped the gun?) is just an example of stuff that has been going on for several days now, that has me believing this.

DD: I would bet that no "big boy" of any consequence was trading today, and your "high volume" drop was "high" only relative to the near absence of trading volume the last few days. The "stuff" of the last few days has been a steady, orderly rally off of the last panic-type low. Higher highs, higher lows, marching toward resistance levels.
TAH: I would trade SonicR on this, but only SonicR short. The gun is loaded and there is no telling when they are going to pull the trigger.....and "longs" are going to be KAPUT!

DD: There is never any telling when price is going to explode up or down, except that high probability reversal areas happen at support and resistance levels, and not, as my buddy would say, in the middle of no where. Why not trade SonicR long or short as price action dictates. Isn't that what SonicR is all about?

TAH: Even though price keeps climbing at an ever steeper incline, volume is declining and CCI is dropping. This looks to be in the final stages of a Pump N' Dump!

DD: Don't you think it also looks like typical pre-Holiday trade? It could also be interpreted as price climbing the proverbial "wall of worry" associated with bull runs. Again, I'm just asking why try to interpret and predict, when we can use SonicR to tell us and protect us?

TAH: You want to trade long? Go ahead. I don't care if they pump it 200 more pips. I do not want to risk being in it when they pull the rug out!!!!!

DD: That's what a stop loss is for, right?

TAH: I'll catch the downside. It is coming. And it will be a lot safer trade. The higher they pump it now, the better that trade will be then.

DD: I hope you do catch the downside when it comes. I hope all Sonikers do. But you are making a classic mistake by assuming that as price goes higher, the short side gets safer. Technical analysis teaches precisely the opposite: higher highs tend to beget higher lows and further higher highs.


TAH: Edit: "Anyway, the consolidation broke to the upside." - ddaytrader .........Yes, ddaytrader, and that "break" is the area in black on the attached chart.....price going higher at steep angle while the trading interest and the CCI are dropping, and on the heals of that quick mini high trade count selloff! So, is it a "breakout", or a Head Fake? Frankly, at this poiint with multiple days of running up, Pump 'n Dump or no Pump 'n Dump, I'd stay away as far as any long trade, no matter how good the setup looked.

DD: Of course it is a breakout. Price broke above the consolidation and continued to rally into what is really the first identifiable and anticipatab;le level of resistance. If price were to comence a tradbale retraement of the rally from the 12/18 low from these levels, that would not be at all surprising.

I think you make a lot of valuable contributions to Sonic's thread, TAH, but I do not find the concept of the "pump and dump" or the "dump and pump" to be at all helpful. I am glad you were not espousing it when I was a new Soniker. I think you will confuse new Sonikers and hurt their chances of success.

Why not start separate "pump and dump" thread to discuss your volume/Big Boy theory, and limit this thread to SonicR analysis and trades?
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