Trade what you see NOT what you expect

Here you go sailor Pippin texted me and was stepping out .. Ken

After watching charts for the whole year he has come to trust that these flat closes are premeptive to reversals. Some times followed by signals and sometimes taken along with S/R lines or trendlines on their own.. Hope this Helps
sailor68
Sailor68
Member Since May 2009
145 Posts

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Quote:
Originally Posted by PippiNole http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
All I can say is I'm glad I think the way I do because it has payed me quite handsomely ever since you asked me why I shorted at 6400.

Hi Pipinole, have u got a chart of this candlepattern or this trade..
Thanks

After I posted the snapshot of the short from today I realised Sailor's question referred to the short from 16400 on Wednesday. I was about to post up another snapshot showing that trade and, surprise, surprise, you beat me to it again Ken - LOL

I really am going to have to brush up on my keyboard skills

Have a great weekend all.

Macc

You have a great weekend too.

Thanks Pippinole, Ken and Macc for your quick answer,

Right its what i understood, i took this trade on GU on the second candle, but on the first candle i never think that bull lost power, right now i will look at this with more attention of for these two candles and also Ma, this week i will look back at GU and EJ chart for this kind of candlepattern.

Thanks again for these explanation.

As Ken mentioned Sailor, these flat closed candles really need to be occurring in conjunction with something else (s/r, previous PA, trendline, round number etc.) and, as with any "potential" signal, they don't always play out.

If you already have an idea that price may want to turn or stall in a certain area then a flat close candle could add a little more confidence. One eye on the bigger picture as always I guess.

Macc

Right like you said, i will look also for other potential signal (Pa, S/R ...)and an eye on higher timeframe...
Thanks again

As its pretty early on a very snowy UK morning, I just wanted to say a little something about the trader's mindset and how much difference it can make to how you trade. More for my own processes than anything else because all I can say is, last week was a disaster for me and it was entirely my own fault.

Anyone that uses MT4, have you been through the exercise of dragging the trades from the history window to your chart? Its a very good exercise if you want to face the truth about your trading. After such a bad week I did just that, and what I was thinking when I put in and took out trades, all I can say is WTF!

I broke every rule there was, took 1 or 2 pips on good trades, then watched them run and run, then bad trades, let them run and run

This way of trading can make a truck load of pips a week if played properly, Pippinole can testify to that, he does it week in week out along with EO and quite a few others and I really admire their mindsets. Hopefully I won't have another week like last week again.

I can see the trades before they happen, I could tell you where its likely to bounce, I know every single one of EO's setups and know they work, so what happened? All I can think is that I stopped trusting what I was seeing. How strange!

If you went into the trading systems section of this forum and saw a system that had an indicator that put either an up or down arrow on the chart when the system told you to go, and you knew that 8/9 times out of ten they worked, it would be the most popular thread in FF. There are a couple of them now, in fact I've used some of them in the past, but as we know, no "system" lasts forever, the markets change and most only work in trending markets, which is why I started to learn this way of trading (because its not a "system"). I wanted something that would work in any type of market conditions, I wanted something that would work even if there was just a 30 pip range for the day I don't think I have ever seen these words said by EO or the other seniors in this thread, you must have all seen these:

"Its too choppy, stay out"
"Market is ranging stay out"
"It hasn't chosen a direction stay out"
"There will be low volume stay out"

in other words I wanted to learn to trade!

And that is exactly what I've done, I've actually learned to trade here, all thanks to EO and the others, but unless you can believe what you're seeing and act on it, and get your mind right, its not going to do you a whole lot of good. This more than any other thread on FF relies on you and that is probably why a lot of people find it so tough, it doesn't put an arrow there for you, you have to believe what you're seeing and you can't blame an arrow if it goes wrong.

So, into next week, when just about every other thread is giving up for Christmas, I am going to be still trading and at the end of this week I hope to have something better to report.

Please forgive my waffle, as I said, its more for my own processes than anything else, but for anyone else battling their own minds, at least you know you're not on your own

Have a great Christmas everyone and here's to an even better New Year

Hi Luckylady
Thanx for sharing your wise words, hoping next week will be better for you.

Fantastic post LL.

Thanks for your Post, I am sure it does help to know we aren't alone in our endeavours. I also know for a fact that this is a minor set back for you. As you stated you know this works and does for you. So keep your chin up and get your mind right . Get positive thinking and be ready for a battle next week might be a struggle. I think the trades will be here may even be a great week. Because it is strange when a lot say it will be bad sometimes it is the easist.

Just keep your eye on the prize. You have looked and seen your mistakes now let them go. Don't dwell on them giving them more power. Look over your notes or your trading history of your best week and repeat that.

Have A Great Weekend Ken

Chart showing why EJ turned at 127.40.

Originally Posted by jaggu86 http://forums.babypips.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi ken,
I really appreciate your time and patience in explaining things so clearly. I have few questions on news trading . How do you treat news. I know you are a technical trader .

The best traders of this system veiw news as noise. because it tends to effect the market temporally. But normally they are in their trades and have a very big safety factor positive Pips . If not that don't enter close to news say 15 min. and even 30 or 45 unless at scalp trade to close before news. But you will see lots of times the market starts moving price the coreect direction hrs and sometimes days before major news. So long term trades are pretty safe.

1) So do you keep away from the market when a news is about to release?

If it is very cose to news I will wait as you should know or will see within about 15 min or so the market starts to enter positions based on what they thing the news release will be. That can give you a false signal plus we are depending on others at that point because it isn't a true signal.

2) Lets say u see a good setup 30 min before a major news release do you still trade that setup and close out your position a few min before news ?

It depends on your broker my broker slips my stops during news so I don't feel confident to leave a positon open before the news. Unless I am way in the positive by 50 pips or so in the direction of the majore trend as you will also see the price tends to move before the news even hours before in the direction that the news will also move it. The people thatb trade fundamentals do a lot of work to understand those releases and position themselves before hand. But the biggest moves tend to be the ones caused by suprises , That is what makes news trades a bit of a gamble at the best of times.

3) whats your thinking when the first 15 min candle after the news close justifying your technical setups do you enter them or have a buffer period for the effect of the news to get settle down. Because I have seen during news time the first candle closes favouring bearish/bullis sentiment and the next candle going entirely opposite direction. Whats your view on this?

I feel and can be wrong that a lot of the intial move is caused by to factors. One being retail traders that don't understand the release at all. Like CPI sometimes higher inflation is good other times not. But Retail traders tend to see a higher number as good and push price one way then the comercial trader step in and price moves in it's true direction in response to that news. This is why most people wait for the price to settle then get in. A big news release can effect price for the rest of the day. So there isn't any rush to enter on those spikes. That being said ,first just start to notice the moves without trading you will start to see that our S/R areas and our major MA's still effect where price can and does turn even during news. At the least this gives you a place to place your stops.

Tight stops should always be used during news. It either goes your way or not. To enter Technically you may have to wait 30 or 45 minutes. You will start to see PA price action just like at any other time. Then a signal will form . The key to winning at this long term is to not gamble. Always have a reason to do whatever you think is right. Don't just jump in because you see these giant moves your missing out on. You already missed them at that point.

Would like to wish everyone good Health for Christmas, a family members illness this past week brought me to a screeching halt. Wish I could just go out and buy some and put under everyones tree.

Catching up on all the post and have a couple charts.

Looking at the mistress notice how those three highs came after she dropped down and found demand at the same level. Thats the same level in Pippis 4hr chart above. On the previous touch though she only made it back up to the blue box on the day chart then shot back down. I will look for this level to soften up and give way. Heres a wk chart for potential targets, though far away not far fetched. Still bearish on fiber but seems a retrace is coming due wasnt long ago 1.4400 seemed far-fetched.

My kind of candycane!!

I'm impressed!

The dragon didnt spend much time at the green level as it had in previous touches but ran into ma's and resistance overhead going to watch the tl.

Been awhile since the Mrs had all the ma's overhead on a day chart, starting to tighten up too.

Heres the Mrs

Worst of it is when you start revenge trading. Happened to me far too often http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif.

Happy trading to all of you.

i wrote my rules out and placed them on paper in front of me.
you need to treat those rules like they are somebody elses rules..like at a job. you know when you walk in the door if you pinch the secretaries ass you'll be fired...same thing here. you drive yourself broke if you don't follow your rules.

i like to step away and go do something un related to trading, then i can objectively search my trades and remind myself what i did right and talk through what i did wrong and how to fix it.

hope you all have a great week of trading and a great holiday too!